How should we measure school performance and hold schools accountable? A study of competing statistical methods and how they compare to Progress 8
ESRC standard grant
- Grant Code: ES/R010285/1
- Duration: 01/10/2018 - 30/09/2021
- Amount Awarded: £467,000
People
- George Leckie, Principal Investigator
- Harvey Goldstein, Co-Investigator (obituary)
- Lucy Prior, Research Associate
Summary
Videos
Journal articles
- French, R., Sariaslan, A., Larsson, H., Kneale, D. & Leckie, G. Estimating the importance of families in modeling educational achievement using linked Swedish administrative data. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness. Forthcoming. Article. Pre-print.
- Gallo Cordoba, B., Leckie, G., Browne, W. J. Decomposing ethnic achievement gaps across multiple levels of analysis and for multiple ethnic groups: A mediation approach. Sociological Methodology? Forthcoming. Article. Pre-print.
- Goldstein, H., Haynes, M., Leckie, G., Tran, P. (2020). Estimating reliability statistics and measurement error variances using instrumental variables with longitudinal data. Longitudinal and Life Course Studies, 11, 289-306. Article.
- Leckie, G., Browne, W., Goldstein, H., Merlo, J., Austin, P. (2019). Variance partitioning in multilevel models for count data. Psychological Methods, 25(6), 787–801. Article. Pre-print. Slides.
- Leckie, G. and Goldstein, H. (2019). The importance of adjusting for pupil background in school value-added models: A study of Progress 8 and school accountability in England. British Educational Research Journal. Forthcoming. Article. Video. Slides.
- Leckie, G. and Prior, L. A Comparison of Value-Added Models for School Accountability. School Effectiveness and School Improvement. School Effectiveness and School Improvement. Article. Pre-print.
- Prior, L., Goldstein, H., & Leckie, G. (2021). School value-added models for multivariate academic and non-academic outcomes: A more rounded approach to using student data to inform school accountability. School Effectiveness and Improvement. Article.
- Prior, L. and Leckie, G. (2022). Student mobility: extent, impacts, and predictors of a range of movement types for secondary school students in England. British Educational Research Journal. Article
- Prior, L., Jerrim, J., Thomson, D., & Leckie, G. (2021). A review and evaluation of secondary school accountability in England: Statistical strengths, weaknesses, and challenges for 'Progress 8' raised by COVID-19. Review of Education. Article.
- Prior, L., Evans, C.R., Merlo, J., & Leckie, G. (2024). Sociodemographic inequalities in student achievement: An intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA). Sociology of Race and Ethnicity. Article.
Working papers now published as journal articles (see above)
- Leckie, G., Browne, W., Goldstein, H., Merlo, J., Austin, P. (2019). Variance partitioning in multilevel models for count data. arXiv:1911.06888. Article.
- Leckie, G., Goldstein, H. (2018). Should we adjust for pupil background in school value-added models? A study of Progress 8 and school accountability in England. arXiv:1811.09240. Article.
- Leckie, G., and Prior, L. (2021). A Comparison of Value-Added Models for School Accountability: arXiv: 2107.09410 [stat AP]. Article.
- Leckie, G., and Prior, L. (2021). A Comparison of Value-Added Models for School Accountability. Bristol Working Paper in Education Series. Working Paper, 01/2022. Article.
- Prior, L., Goldstein, H., & Leckie, G. (2020). School value-added models for multivariate academic and non-academic outcomes: A more rounded approach to using student data to inform school accountability. arXiv:2001.01996 [stat AP]. Article.
- Prior, L., Jerrim, J., Thomson, D., Leckie, G. (2021). A review and evaluation of secondary school accountability in England: Statistical strengths, weaknesses, and challenges for 'Progress 8'. arXiv:2104.06299 [stat.AP]. Article.
- Prior, L., Jerrim, J., Thomson, D., Leckie, G. (2021). A review and evaluation of secondary school accountability in England: Statistical strengths, weaknesses, and challenges for 'Progress 8'. Bristol Working Papers in Education Series. Working Paper, 01/21. Article.
- Prior, L., Jerrim, J., Thomson, D., Leckie, G. (2021). A review and evaluation of secondary school accountability in England: Statistical strengths, weaknesses, and challenges for 'Progress 8'. (CEPEO Working Paper No. 21-04). Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucl:cepeow:21-04. Article.
- Prior, L., Jerrim, J., Thomson, D., Leckie, G. (2021). A review and evaluation of secondary school accountability in England: Statistical strengths, weaknesses, and challenges for 'Progress 8'. UCL IOE Quantitative Social Science Working Paper No. 21-12, April 2021. Article.
- Prior, L., Evans, C., Merlo, J., Leckie, G. (2022). Sociodemographic inequalities in student achievement: An intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) with application to students in London, England. Bristol Working Papers in Education Series. Working Paper, 06/2022. Article.
- Prior, L., Evans, C., Merlo, J., Leckie, G. (2022). Sociodemographic inequalities in student achievement: An intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) with application to students in London, England. arXiv: 2211.06321 [stat.AP]. Article.
Working papers
- Leckie, G., Parker, R., Goldstein, H., Tilling, K. (2021). Multilevel models with random residual variances for joint modelling school value-added effects on the mean and variance of student achievement. arXiv: 2110.02079 [stat AP]. Article.
- Goldstein, H., Leckie, G., Prior, L. (2020). Providing educational accountability for Local Authorities based upon sampling pupils within schools: moving away from simplistic school league tables. arXiv:2002.09897 [stat AP]. Article.
- Leckie, G., Prior, L., Goldstein, H. (2019). The implications of Labour’s plan to scrap Key Stage 2 tests for Progress 8 and secondary school accountability in England. arXiv: 1911.06884 [stat AP]. Article.
Representative articles
- Leckie, G. (2018). Avoiding bias when estimating the consistency and stability of value-added school effects using multilevel models. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics. Forthcoming. DOI: 10.3102/1076998618755351. Article. Slides.
- Leckie, G., & Goldstein, H. (2017). The evolution of school league tables in England 1992-2016: ‘contextual value-added’, ‘expected progress’ and ‘progress 8’. British Educational Research Journal, 43, 193-212. DOI: 10.1002/berj.3264. Article. Video. Slides.
- Leckie, G., & Goldstein, H. (2011). Understanding uncertainty in school league tables. Fiscal Studies, 32, 207-224. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-5890.2011.00133.x. Article. Visualization.
- Leckie, G., & Goldstein, H. (2009). The limitations of using school league tables to inform school choice. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 172, 835-851. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00597.x. Article.
Keynote conference presentations:
Other presentations:
- September 2022. 'School value-added models for multivariate acadmemic and non-academic outcomes in school accountability systems' and 'Student mobility: extent, impacts and predictors of a range of movement types'. EARLI SIG 18, Freiburg.
- April 2022. 'Incorporating student mobility in studies of school improvement: Comparing two cross-classified multiple membership models', Heck, R., Reid, T., and Leckie, G., 2022 AERA Annual Meeting, San Diego.
- September 2021. 'Pupil mobility: the extent, impacts and predictors of moving school'. Society for Longitudinal and Lifecourse Studies (SLLS). Online.
- September 2021. 'School value-added models for multivariate academic and non-academic outcomes: Exploring implications for performance monitoring and accountability'. British Educational Researcch Association (BERA). Online.
- June 2021. Review of Education article summary.
- March 2021. Northern Powerhouse Partnership. Zoom.
- June 2020. Lewisham. Cancelled due to COVID-19.
- March 2020. Manchester. Cancelled due to COVID-19.
- February 2020. 'Secondary school performance measures and league tables in England: An overview of the official measures and their statistical modelling, data, policy, and interpretation issues'. York.
- January 2020. 'School value-added models of academic and non-academic student outcomes: A more rounded approach to using student data to inform school accountability with application to attainment, absences and exclusions in England'. NPD User Group Meeting, London.
- January 2020. 'Secondary school performance measures and league tables in England: An overview of the official measures and their statistical modelling, data, policy, and interpretation issues'. Wolverhampton.
- September 2019. 'School accountability in crisis - holding the judges to account'. British Educational Research Association (BERA) . Manchester.
- April 2019. ‘Progress 8’ National Education Union annual conference, Liverpool.
- April 2019. 'Calculating intraclass correlation coefficients in multilevel models for count responses'. 12th International Amsterdam Multilevel Conference, Utrecht.
- November 2018. ‘Accountability and school differential effects’. Department of Learning and Leadership, IOE UCL, London. Flyer. Article. Slides. Video.
- September 2018. Bristol Cathedral School, Bristol. Article. Slides.
- September 2018. 'Avoiding bias when estimating the consistency and stability of value-added school effects'. RSS Annual Conference, University of Cardiff. Article. Slides.
- May 2018. 'Avoiding bias when estimating the consistency and stability of value-added school effects'. Q-step Seminar Series, University of Exeter. Article. Slides.
- April 2018. 'Avoiding bias when estimating the consistency and stability of value-added school effects'. 2018 AERA Annual Meeting, New York. Article. Slides.
- July 2017. ‘Modelling heterogeneous variance-covariance components in two-level models'. JEBS: Methods for Eductional and Behavioral Applications session at Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), Baltimore. Article. Slides.
- June 2017. Data Intensive Research Workshop, Cardiff University. Slides.
Book chapters and Encyclopedia entries
- Leckie, G. (2021). Cross-classified multilevel models, Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research. Second edition.
- Leckie, G. (2019). Multilevel models for continuous outcomes, SAGE Research Methods Foundations series.
- Leckie, G. (2021). Multiple membership multilevel models, Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research. Second edition.
Teaching presentations:
- 'The importance of adjusting for pupil background in school value-added models: A study of Progress 8 and school accountability in England'. M-level: Statistics in Education. University of Bristol. December 2018.
- 'Introductory overview of quantitative methods and basic analysis approaches'. EdD: Conducting Educational Research. University of Bristol. June 2018.
Multilevel modelling short courses:
- December 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, Introduction to Multilevel Modelling Using MLwiN, Royal Statistical Society, London
- Jan and July 2019, 2020, Jan 2021, July 2021 Introduction to Multilevel Modelling Using MLwiN, Bristol.
- October 2018, Introduction to Multilevel Modelling, Bamberg.
- August 2018, Multilevel Modelling: Three-level, Cross-Classified and Multiple Membership Models, EARLI Special Interest Group 18 Educational Effectiveness, Groningen, Netherlands (Course Instructor). Flyer.
Education Select Commitee
- June 2020. Submitted written evidence to Education Select Committee on “Left behind white pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds"
- March 2019. Submitted written evidence to Education Select Committee on “Progress 8 and the need to adjust for pupil background”
Response to Ofqual consultation
- April 2020. Submitted statement to Ofqual consultation on ‘GCSE and A level grading proposals for 2020’
Response to EPI consultation
- February 2022. Submitted statement to Education Policy Institute (EPI) consultation on 'The Features of Effective School Groups: Measuring pupil inclusion at school-group level'
Policy briefings
- Leckie, G., Goldstein, H. (2019). The Government’s Progress 8 school performance measure needs to account for pupil background. PolicyBristol. Policy Briefing 66: 01/2019.
- Prior, L., Jerrim, J., Thomson, D., and Leckie, G. (2021). Is it worth calculating Progress 8 anymore? PolicyBristol. Policy Briefing 109:11/2021.
Impact case study
- Secondary school accountability in England (2022). ADR UK. https://www.adruk.org/our-mission/our-impact/secondary-school-accountability-in-england/
Blogs
- Prior, L., Jerrim, J, Thomson, D., Leckie, G. (2021). Is it still worth calculating Progress 8? BERA blog
- Leckie, G., Goldstein, H., Prior, L. (2019). School accountability by Progress 8: A critique of Conservative anf Labour proposals. BERA blog.
Radio coverage
- January 2019: Heart radio
- January 2019: Love sport radio
Newspaper and other print coverage
- March 2019: Times Educational Supplement.
- January 2019: Bristol Post, Daily Express, The Guardian, The Independent, Leigh Journal, The Star, The Times, Times Educational Supplement, Warrington Guardian, Wigan Today, Yorkshire Post
- June 2018. 'Testing children gives a poor measure of ability'. Letter in the Guarduan in response to Simon Jenkins’s piece on how ‘the cult of tests is ruining our schools’. Article.
Other online media coverage
- March 2019: Schools Week
- January 2019: Ekklesia, Greensheets, Humanists UK, Local Gov, My Science, Reclaiming Schools, Schools Improvement, Schools Week, World News Live 4 You
Knowledge exchange meetings:
- July2021: Fischer Family Trust: Education Datalab. Discussed their related research work.
- January 2021: Fischer Family Trust: Education Datalab. Discussed their related research work.
- April 2020: Round table discussion on Progress 8 with 15 others. Via Zoom.
- August 2019: Fischer Family Trust: Education Datalab. Discussed their related research work.
- April 2019: Department for Education, London. Discussed Adjusted Progress 8 work.
- February 2019: Ofsted, Bristol. Discussed Adjusted Progress 8 work.
- December 2018: Fischer Family Trust. Discussed our Adjusted Progress 8 work.
- September 2018: Ofsted, Bristol. Discussed our Adjusted Progress 8 work.
- November 2017: Department for Education, London. Discussed grant proposal.
- November 2017. HEFCE, Bristol. Discussed grant proposal.
Other meetings
- January 2022. Round table discussion on educational equity hosted by Loic Menzies and Cambridge Assessment Network
- August 2019. Discussion with Education Campaigns Manager at Humanists UK about Progress 8
- May 2019. Discussion with Director and Chief Economist of Northern Powerhouse Partnership
- April 2019. Presentation of Progress 8 research to Emma Hardy MP (Education Select Committee member) at Portcullis house
- March 2019. Presentation of Progress 8 research to MPs at private meeting with UK Parliament Education Select Committee
- February 2019. Discussion with Head of Co-Op Academies about Progress 8
Related advisory work:
- June 2019. Discussion with Israel Academy of Sciences about school value added models.
- 2018-present: Discussions with Trinidad and Tobago Department for Education about school value added models.
- 2018-present. Discussions with Sweden Department for Education about school value added models.
- 2018-present. Office for Student (OfS) Expert Advisory Group on benchmarking methodologies.
- March 2018. Discussions with Bulgarian Minister of Education and heads of directorates as expert member of World Bank team.
- 2017-present. Higher Education Funding Council England (HEFCE) Learning Gain Expert Group.
Related conference organisation:
- Spring 2021. Co-organiser (with Dave Thomson) of NPD User Group meeting, Bristol.
- January 2020. Co-organiser (with Dave Thomson) of NPD User Group meeting, London.
- September 2018. Co-organiser (with Becky Allen) of NPD User Group meeting, Bristol.
Northern Powerhouse Partnership
In joint work we produced a website where schools could look up their Adjusted Progress 8 scores.
The following reports were produced for the Northern Powerhouse Partnership (NPP) on Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8:
Report for NPP on Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2022-2023 (Office document, 816kB)
Report for NPP on Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2018-2019 (Office document, 824kB)
Report for NPP on Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2017-2018 (Office document, 824kB)
Report for NPP on Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2016-2017 (Office document, 852kB)
The following datasets provide the school Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 scores used to compile the reports:
Dataset of School Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2022-2023 (Office document, 1,686kB)
Dataset of School Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2016-2019 (Office document, 4,419kB)
Dataset of School Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2018-2019 (Office document, 1,836kB)
Dataset of School Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2017-2018 (Office document, 1,765kB)
Dataset of School Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2016-2017 (Office document, 1,281kB)
Dataset of School Progress 8 and Adjusted Progress 8 for 2015-2016 (Office document, 1,216kB)