The challenge

Illnesses relating to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) account for a high burden of disease around the world. An understanding of the relationship between meteorology and WASH-related illnesses is therefore needed to estimate changes in incidence that may arise due to climate change.  This information is vital to allow healthcare systems to prepare and adapt for the future, particularly in countries more affected by climate change in which WASH-related illnesses already make up a high burden of disease.

What we've been doing

In partnership with researchers based in the University of Johannesburg and the South African Medical Research Council we explored the association between meteorological changes and pneumonia- and malaria-related hospital admissions in Mopani district. By using a modelling framework that accounted for delayed impacts of temperature and humidity changes, we were able to identify increased risk of pneumonia hospital admissions 7-14 days following colder weather. A key finding is that extreme temperatures and humidity account for a high proportion of the temperature-related risk of pneumonia. Such models can then be used to estimate how the number of cases may be affected by climate change, as the distribution of days with extreme temperature or humidity changes.

Impacts of the research

The research in Mopani district contributed to a Lancet Commission on WASH-related illnesses, and ongoing work has since explored other disease areas, using hospital datasets from other countries.

We hope that by highlighting the relationship between meteorology and disease in different parts of the world we can provide information needed by healthcare systems to help prepare them for the impacts of climate change.

Investigators

• Hugo Pedder, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School
• Richard Morris, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School
• Guy Howard, Cabot Institute for the Environment
• Caradee Wright, Environmental Health Department, University of Johannesburg
• Thandi Kapwata, Environmental Health Department, University of Johannesburg
• Zamantimande Kunene, Environmental Health Department, University of Johannesburg