The study, published on the preprint server medRxiv, is led by Dr Mark Woodhouse from Bristol's Schools of Earth Sciences and Mathematics, working with colleagues in Earth Sciences, Bristol Veterinary School and with specialists in public health and infectious diseases on the CoMMinS (COVID-19 Mapping and Mitigation in Schools) project.

The new agent-based model characterises the numbers of daily close contacts that can occur in primary school classrooms, involving pupils and teachers and provides a basis for assessing likely rates of COVID-19 infection transmission and infections within classrooms in the new term.  The model takes into account the infection dynamics of the new Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 and changing guidance for mitigation measures in schools.

The pre-print reports advances in computational probabilistic modelling for estimating in-school infection risks, building on earlier studies by Bristol colleagues (Sparks et al; Aspinall et al).  The new analytical framework is based on developments in characterising, statistically, the complexities of child-with-child and child-with-teacher interactions within the classroom, and how these are modulated by classroom management controls for reducing infection spread.

Read the full University of Bristol press release