Singapore / UK, 1 November 2023 – A global team of 20 social scientists studying artificial intelligence (AI) activities across key digital hubs around the world over a four-year period spanning 2019 to 2023 unveil findings that the direction of AI innovation in corporate activities is to automate and unbundle professional work, putting the very type of work that has been powering social mobility for decades at significant risk. Public and private sectors, along with individuals, must collaborate, to ensure the AI revolution is sustainable and benefits all, necessitating human-centric digital strategies, job redesign and upskilling for at all levels of work.

The most extensive study on AI and the future of work to date based on adoption patterns, the researchers for the Digital Futures of Work Research Programme drew from interviews with over 500 respondents and quantitative analyses, examining patterns of activity across more than 10 key digital hubs around the world, including Silicon Valley, Singapore, London, Seoul, Helsinki, Berlin and more.

The findings challenge conventional assumptions about AI technologies replacing less-skilled routine work to ‘free up’ people to do more high-skilled work in better-paid jobs. Rather than less skilled jobs disappearing, top-end professional jobsthat involve decision-making, data analysis, and creative problem-solving are seeing more significant changes.

AI technologies are being used to automate, standardise, and redistribute these tasks in a process that can be described as cognitive capture mediated through digital platforms (see Box Story 1). Combined, more than 180 companies participated in the study to give insights on AI adoption in their firms, including Fortune 500 companies and leading start-ups. More than 250 corporate leaders, technologists, venture capitalists and AI scientists gave in-depth views.

"We've studied AI trends in top global companies to understand its direction," says Professor Phillip Brown, Distinguished Research Professor at Cardiff University and the Director of the Digital Futures of Work Research Programme. “Our findings fundamentally challenge common assumptions that AI innovation will create better jobs than it destroys. The findings instead show that the direction of AI innovation in most key hubs is to fragment professional work as part of corporate strategies of efficiency-driven, cost-cutting innovation. It will take time for the outcomes to show up in labour market data. Our evidence suggests the consequences are already being felt. Societal leaders must ensure that the right questions about AI and the future of work are being asked and to act accordingly.”

Human-centric strategies exist. Not all AI innovation activities lead to the fragmentation of knowledge work. Digital hubs such as Helsinki and Berlin, as well as a smaller proportion of firms in other digital hubs, give focus to AI technologies as assistive technologies to preserve professional work and enhance lower and middle-skilled jobs (see Box Story 2). Firms engaged in such activities argue that such strategies are frontier-expanding strategies that unlock new value-creation. In contrast, cognitive capture strategies are driven by efficiency-driven, cost-cutting approaches that would not yield sustainable value-creation. Technologists likewise shared with the research team of the enormous potential for AI to augment human capabilities. These perspectives open up opportunities for societal leaders to shape the use of AI technologies to enhance productivity and shared prosperity. Strategies may include nudging businesses to employ productive, human-centric business transformation strategies, building up know-how on how AI can be used more purposefully in job enlargement, and boosting the AI capabilities of the workforce in sectors and occupations with uneven AI adoption.

Strengthening the middle class

Pursuing human-centric strategies are crucial to reduce the risks to professional work, given the interest of national governments and key international players such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO) to strengthen the middle class. In the US, UK and Singapore, professionals and degree holders now form the fastest growing category of workers earning middle wages, defined as those earning 75-150% of median income. Corporate innovation strategies of automation, standardisation and redistribution of knowledge work aimed at reducing labour costs will further weaken the capacity of economies to add professional jobs to power social mobility. Human-centric strategies have the opportunity not only to strengthen professional work, but to enhance other types of occupations. These include jobs that are currently seen as less-skilled such as clerical, sales, and service staff.

Source: American Community Survey, UK Labour Force Survey, Singapore Skills and Learning Survey

Sahara Sadik, Assistant Director (Research) at the Institute for Adult Learning and Deputy Director of the Digital Futures of Work Research Programme says, “Early stages of the fourth industrial revolution show digital technologies being applied to low-skilled industries such as ride-hailing industries and hospitality, in ways that have not enhanced low-skilled jobs. We are now in the midst of a different type of digital innovation that targets knowledge work. If left unchecked, it will weaken how human potential can flourish and thrive. It is important that societal investments in education, training and lifelong learning are utilised in a sustainable manner for economic and social good. Our research shows the potential for AI technologies to enhance jobs and skills at all levels, but that this is not being pursued in a systematic way. This calls for the active participation of the public and private sectors, along with individuals, to explore human-centric business transformations, AI-driven job expansion, and AI reskilling.”

Says Professor Ewart Keep, Emeritus Professor of Education, Training and Skills at Oxford University, “Our findings show an urgent need for new policy capacity to harness a more human-centric future of work, and to reform education and training to empower the current and future workforce to shape their work-life in fulfilling and meaningful ways.”

Professor Richard Watermeyer,  Professor of Higher Education & Co-Director of the Centre for Higher Education Transformations at University of Bristol, explains, “Our findings point to the transforming role of higher education to embrace a lifelong learning agenda, and to explore the full potential of generative AI to enhance the learning capabilities and skills of all.”

The findings were presented at the Digital Futures of Work Research Conference on 1 November 2023 in Singapore. Access the set of infographics and full report at  https://digitalfuturesofwork.com/.