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Cascading uncertainties in flood modelling

3 August 2012

Numerical models of loss from flood hazard lie at the base of an uncertainty cascade influenced by uncertainties in precipitation, transformation of precipitation into runoff and hydraulic routing of runoff over complex topography.

  • Numerical models of loss from flood hazard lie at the base of an uncertainty cascade influenced by uncertainties in precipitation, transformation of precipitation into runoff and hydraulic routing of runoff over complex topography.
  • The influence of uncertainties in hydraulic flood models has been extensively explored but generally in isolation from evaluation of uncertainties in loss methodologies.
  • Abstractions caused by model resolution, digital elevation prescription and friction specification are evaluated for 1-in-100, 200 and 1000 year return period events.
  • Relative magnitude of uncertainties in depth/damage curves (and subsequent estimates of loss) are assessed compared to hydraulic modelling uncertainties.
  • Numerical models of loss from flood hazard lie at the base of an uncertainty cascade influenced by uncertainties in precipitation, transformation of precipitation into runoff and hydraulic routing of runoff over complex topography.
  • A picture of hydraulic modellingThe influence of uncertainties in hydraulic flood models has been extensively explored but generally in isolation from evaluation of uncertainties in loss methodologies.
  • Abstractions caused by model resolution, digital elevation prescription and friction specification are evaluated for 1-in-100, 200 and 1000 year return period events.
  • Relative magnitude of uncertainties in depth/damage curves (and subsequent estimates of loss) are assessed compared to hydraulic modelling uncertainties.

View the poster. (PDF, 1,178kB)

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