Hosted by the School of Medicine at Cardiff University

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Abstract: Over 15M SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences generated so far. Those allow us to reconstruct the evolution of the virus during the Covid-19 pandemic in remarkable detail. In this talk, I will put SARS-CoV-2 into the wider context of other coronaviruses, briefly cover what genomics can tell us about the origin of the virus, and then cover its evolution over the last three years. I will then discuss the emergence of Variants of Concern and the emergence of secondary animal reservoirs. I will conclude the talk by delineating scenarios for the future ‘endemic’ dynamic of SARS-CoV-2, ranging from the good—circulation of a fifth endemic ‘common cold’ coronavirus of potentially low virulence, the bad—a situation roughly comparable with seasonal flu, and the ugly—extensive diversification into multiple co-circulating serotypes.

Biography: Francois Balloux is the director of the UCL Genetics Institute, and a professor of computational biology at University College London. Balloux's research lies at the interface of genomics, epidemiology, evolution and ecology. The main focus of his work is on the use genomic data to reconstruct the past population history of a variety of organisms. He works on the reconstruction of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics of human and wildlife pathogens. Over recent times he has been increasingly focusing on the factors that allow some lineages to be more successful than others. One aspect of this work is the prediction of drug resistance and virulence factors. His work spans a large spectrum ranging from the fundamental (e.g. reconstructing historical plague pandemics) to the applied (e.g. tracking nosocomial infections in a hospital ward). Indeed, he does not feel there must be a divide between fundamental and applied science, and while his research is primarily driven by scientific curiosity, he aims at contributing with his work to the genomic revolution in medicine, public health and conservation biology. Balloux and colleague Lucy van Dorp led the first large-scale sequencing project of the SARS-CoV-2 genome.