Abstract
Background: Mental health has worsened, and substance use has increased for some individuals during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Cross-sectional studies suggest that COVID-19 risk perceptions are related to mental health and risk behaviours (potentially including substance use). However, longitudinal and genetic data are needed to support stronger inferences regarding whether these associations reflect causal pathways.
Methods: Using cross-sectional, longitudinal, and polygenic risk score (PRS) data from the UK Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we examined cross-sectional and prospective associations between COVID-19 risk perceptions and mental health, wellbeing, and risk behaviours. Participants (85% female) were aged between 27-72 years. We used pandemic (April-July 2020) and pre-pandemic (2003-2017) data (ns = 233-5,115).
Results: COVID-19 risk perceptions were positively associated with anxiety (OR 2.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 3.52), depression (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.18), low wellbeing (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.13), increased alcohol use (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.72), and COVID-19 prevention behaviours (ps < .05). Pre-pandemic anxiety (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.09) and low wellbeing (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.74) were positively associated with COVID-19 risk perceptions. The depression (b 0.21, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.40) and wellbeing (b -0.29, 95% CI -0.48 to -0.09) PRS were associated with higher and lower COVID-19 risk perceptions, respectively.
Conclusions: Poorer mental health and wellbeing are associated with higher COVID-19 risk perceptions, and longitudinal and genetic data suggest that they may play a casual role in COVID-19 risk perceptions.