Science, Poverty and Progress
Between the 18th and 26th September, the leaders of 145 countries met, for the 78th time, at the United Nations General Assembly New York. The UNGA is the main policy making forum of the UN and the leaders and representative of 193 countries discussed how to ‘accelerate action’ to achieve the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs). There was a renewed focus on climate change, poverty and inequality as well as discussion, for the first time at the UN, on the use and regulation of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
As a part of the global commitment of Universities to support the work of the UN in making evidence informed policies, the academic community held its 9th UNGA Science Summit (funded by the European Union) which included hundreds of talks and over 100,000 participants (in-person and online). Some of the world’s leading poverty, climate and environment researchers gathered in New York. Their aims were to inform policy makers and the public about the latest scientific advances and promote collaboration and inclusive science.
The Bristol Poverty Institute, working with the University of Gothenburg and UNICEF, hosted a hybrid UNGA Science Summit session on ‘Advanced tools for analysing poverty, climate and environmental changes’. Eighty-one people registered to attend in-person and 370 registered to attend online. The multidisciplinary research groups participating included researchers from two African countries, two European countries and one Asian, one Latin American and one North American country.
In order to eradicate poverty, policy makers will need both political will and adequate resources but they will also need high quality information about the extent and nature of poverty in order to develop effective and efficiently anti-poverty policies. Good anti-poverty policy requires good measurement to help target resources where they are most needed and to monitor progress as well as to identify those most vulnerable to the effects of climate and environmental changes. It is unlikely that poverty will be eradicated if it cannot be measured.
There are currently no poverty measures which can be used in all countries (Low, Middle & High Income). Current poverty measures are unreliable in most countries. New deprivation measures are needed to complement and supplement current Unmet Basic Needs (UBN) indicators.
Improving the collection of survey data on poverty that are theoretically consistent, empirically robust, comparable over time and among countries and transparent, is key for monitoring poverty on a global scale and for the ability to formulate sound policy advice. The University of Bristol and UNICEF researchers discussed recent developments of the Consensual Approach to multidimensional poverty measurement. Survey data are of fundamental importance for monitoring and analysing poverty and incorporating a short Consensual Approach question module in the major international surveys would significantly enhance our ability to monitor poverty on a global scale. Furthermore, geocoded social surveys are of fundamental importance for complex analyses that incorporate data on climate change and environmental hazards to identify those most vulnerable to natural disasters and develop better mitigating and protective policies.
The three following presentations focused on the use of satellite data and advanced modelling of flood risks, deforestation and natural disasters. These all affect poor and non-poor people differently because there are large differences in risk exposure and coping abilities. Rapid advances have been made in modelling methods that can predict future exposure to climate and environmental changes at a global level. Deforestation in parts of Africa over the past 20 years can be linked to both decreasing and increasing poverty. The impact and costs of flooding is increasing
dramatically but, so far, many African societies have taken effective protective measures and built homes and infrastructure in safer locations. However, an important driver of increased damage caused by flooding is the combined effect of increasing urban populations and that the safest locations are already occupied. Again, the poor are most exposed, often being forced to settle in areas with little protection from flooding. The global flood risk presentation based on University of Bristol and Fathom research showed the significant importance of well-informed planning of settlements and infrastructures.
The final presentation took the issue back to the measurement of poverty based on satellite and survey data and artificial intelligence (AI) methods to make small geographic estimates of changes in poverty over time. Important here is that these AI-based estimations need input information from high quality survey data on poverty. Hence, if geocoded data based on the Consensual Approach questions are introduced on a large scale, these AI models would continue to improve. The development of AI-based estimations is also a key for further improved analyses of how climate and environmental changes affect people and especially poor and vulnerable populations.
The focus of the whole session was on advanced tools for analysing poverty AND environmental conditions. Our aim is to make sure that these tools are used by the wider research community and relevant policy organizations, including the UN. The session was an important dissemination opportunity to discuss the latest scientific advances with the global policy making community.
Our UNGA Science Summit session on the 18th September was followed by a meeting at UNICEF HQ on the 19th September with staff responsible for the evaluation of social protection interventions in fragile states and emergency situations. On the 20th September, the international research team participated an in-depth hybrid seminar was held at the New School on ‘Improving Child and Family Poverty Measurement’, organised by Equity for Children and the Bristol Poverty Institute.