Paul Clarke and Frank Windmeijer
* Please note: this is an updated version of WP 09/209 and a substantially revised version has been published in Journal of the American Statistical Association.
Instrumental variables (IVs) can be used to construct estimators of exposure effects on the outcomes of studies affected by non-ignorable selection of the exposure. Estimators which fail to adjust for the effects of non-ignorable selection will be biased and inconsistent. Such situations commonly arise in observational studies, but even randomised controlled trials can be affected by non-ignorable participant non-compliance. In this paper, we review IV estimators for studies in which the outcome is binary. Recent work on identification is interpreted using an integrated structural modelling and potential outcomes framework, within which we consider the links between different approaches developed in statistics and econometrics. The implicit assumptions required for bounding causal effects and point-identification by each estimator are highlighted and compared within our framework. Finally, the implications for practice are discussed.
