Afghanistan is one of the World’s poorest countries following decades of conflict. Long-term development will be effected by climate change and risk from natural hazards.

The research group will combine analysis of high-resolution images of topography of the Helmand Basin with preliminary state-of-art climate modelling as the basis of an assessment of changing patterns and variability of precipitation with implications for agriculture, water resources, renewable energy and security.

The project centres around a unique collection of digital elevation models (lidar at 5 m resolution) provided for exclusive use by Bristol Researchers by Dr Giray Ablay from the Geographical Intelligence Centre of the MOD.

Initial observations of the geomorphology indicate marked variations in precipitation and aridity in the geologically recent past, characterised by alternation of more humid and the highly arid conditions of today. The observations also identify young but active faults, implying significant earthquake risk.

The eventual project will involve geomorphic mapping to reconstruct the past climate record across the region and map seismic hazard. The geomorphological evidence will be compared with Global Climate Models of how climate has varied over the last few million years. This project will be a launchpad to seek major funding on climate change and natural hazards in Afghanistan.

Critically the pilot project will make connections with development and social science experts on Afghanistan and relevant organisations in humanitarian aid and development so that the scientific assessments can be linked to sustainable development.