HIV prevalence

Goubar A, Ades, AE, De Angelis D, McGarrigle CA, Mercer CH, Tooket PA, Fenton K, Gill ON. Estimates of human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and proportion diagnosed based on Bayesian multiparameter synthesis of surveillance data. J. R. Statist. Soc. A (2008) 171, Part 3, pp. 541–580
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00537.x/pdf

Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Spiegelhalter DJ, Seaman S, Goubar A, Ades AE. Conflicting evidence in a Bayesian synthesis of surveillance data to estimate human immunodeficiency virus prevalence. J Royal Statistical Society (A) 2008. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00543.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00543.x/pdf

Presanis, AM, Gill ON, Chadborn TR,  Hill C, Hope V, Logan L,  Rice B, Delpech VC,  Ades AE,  De Angelis D.  Insights into the rise in HIV infections, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence. AIDS, 2010; 24, 1849-58. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32834021ed 
http://journals.lww.com/aidsonline/Abstract/2010/11270/Insights_into_the_rise_in_HIV_infections,_2001_to.12.aspx

De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Conti S, Ades AE. Estimation of HIV Burden through Bayesian Evidence Synthesis. Statistical Science 2014; 29, 9-17 
http://projecteuclid.org/download/pdfview_1/euclid.ss/1399645723

HIV Incidence

Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men. Biostatistics (2011), 12, 4, pp. 666–681. doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxr006
http://biostatistics.oxfordjournals.org/content/12/4/666.full.pdf+html

Reports  from Public Health England, Health Protection Agency, based on MPES methods

2014 Report (pdf)

2013 Report (pdf) 

2012 Report (pdf) 

2011 Report (pdf) 

2009 Report (pdf) 

2008 Report (pdf)