Our work in this area began with an MRC funded project project  that aimed to estimate the prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed HIV infection in the UK. We put together data on risk group size, HIV prevalence within each risk group based on anonymous unlinked sero-surveys, studies of the proportion of infection that is diagnosed, and routine data on newly diagnosed infection.

Following publication (Goubar et al 2008) MPES methods were used to generate the official UK statistics on HIV prevalence, published by the Department of Health or the Health Protection Agency.

A subsequent development was the use of the serial annual prevalence estimates, to estimate the incidence of HIV and the rate at which infection was diagnosed, in the framework of a dynamic transmission model.

HIV publications and reports