Abstract 

In 1941, a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) from Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru flattened parts of the city of Huaraz, killing at least 1,800 inhabitants. In recent decades, Lake Palcacocha has expanded substantially in the wake of the retreat of the Palcaraju glacier, and the risk of another outburst flood is considered to be high. In response, a local farmer and mountain guide, Saúl Luciano Lliuya,  took a large German energy company to court seeking compensation for part of the costs of measures to protect his property, corresponding to the defendant’s proportional contribution to climate change. The court has requested scientific evidence evaluating the causal relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the GLOF hazard from Palcacocha.

I will first present recent research findings that assess the role of climate change in the ongoing threat of an outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha. I will then situate these findings in the broader context of the role of climate-science evidence in climate-related lawsuits and recent analysis of the use and judicial interpretation of such evidence in global climate litigation.

Bio

Rupert Stuart-Smith is a Research Associate in Climate Science and the Law at the University of Oxford and a founding member of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme’s management team. His present research interests cover the use and interpretation of climate science evidence in litigation and methodological developments in climate change attribution science. His current work also spans climate and glacier modelling, the impacts of climate change on health and strategy development for climate litigation.

Rupert's recent publications include research on the impact of climate change on glacial retreat in Peru in the context of an ongoing lawsuit (Lliuya v RWE) and the evidence needed to bring successful legal claims on the impacts of climate change. Rupert has authored expert reports for climate lawsuits and worked as a consultant to the Foundation for International Law for the Environment (FILE), supporting the development of FILE's legal granting strategy, and for WWF-UK, Climate Analytics and Vivid Economics.

Zoom meeting link

Meeting ID: 987 5870 3357

Passcode: 808341