R version 3.6.3 (2020-02-29) -- "Holding the Windsock"
Copyright (C) 2020 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)

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> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 25  Hierarchical Centring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .401
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> # 25.1 What is hierarchical centering? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401
> 
> # 25.2 Centring Normal models using WinBUGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .403
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> # User's input if necessary
> 
> ## Read tutorial data
> data(tutorial, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Hierarchical centring at level 2 (DO NOT USE VERSION 2.25; the bug has been fixed for VERSION 2.26)
> 
> mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(hcen = 2), 
+   show.file = TRUE), BUGO = c(version = 4, n.chains = 1, debug = FALSE, seed = 1, OpenBugs = TRUE), 
+   data = tutorial)
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed

Loading required namespace: BRugs
Welcome to BRugs connected to OpenBUGS version 3.2.3
model is syntactically correct
data loaded
model compiled
Initializing chain 1: 
model is initialized
model is already initialized
Sampling has been started ...
500 updates took 0 s
deviance set
monitor set for variable 'beta'
monitor set for variable 'sigma2'
monitor set for variable 'u2'
monitor set for variable 'sigma2.u2'
monitor set for variable 'deviance'
5000 updates took 7 s
> 
> summary(mymodel)

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

                Mean       SD  Naive SE Time-series SE
beta[1]    2.409e-03  0.04012 0.0005674      0.0005882
beta[2]    5.632e-01  0.01229 0.0001738      0.0001830
deviance   9.209e+03 12.11534 0.1713367      0.1813420
sigma2     5.662e-01  0.01283 0.0001815      0.0001562
sigma2.u2  9.691e-02  0.01955 0.0002765      0.0003464
u2[1]      3.764e-01  0.08499 0.0012020      0.0012020
u2[10]    -3.349e-01  0.10013 0.0014161      0.0014161
u2[11]     1.816e-01  0.09184 0.0012988      0.0013643
u2[12]    -5.881e-02  0.10520 0.0014877      0.0014485
u2[13]    -1.477e-01  0.09227 0.0013050      0.0013050
u2[14]    -1.634e-01  0.05267 0.0007448      0.0007283
u2[15]    -1.821e-01  0.07672 0.0010850      0.0010850
u2[16]    -4.081e-01  0.07809 0.0011043      0.0010574
u2[17]    -1.723e-01  0.06571 0.0009293      0.0009293
u2[18]    -8.119e-02  0.06611 0.0009349      0.0009773
u2[19]    -1.143e-02  0.09546 0.0013500      0.0014004
u2[2]      5.047e-01  0.09902 0.0014004      0.0014004
u2[20]     2.143e-01  0.11076 0.0015663      0.0015617
u2[21]     2.468e-01  0.08493 0.0012011      0.0012052
u2[22]    -4.317e-01  0.07692 0.0010878      0.0010878
u2[23]    -4.894e-01  0.13106 0.0018535      0.0018726
u2[24]     2.092e-01  0.11433 0.0016169      0.0016169
u2[25]    -2.275e-01  0.08621 0.0012192      0.0012192
u2[26]    -2.332e-02  0.08247 0.0011664      0.0011664
u2[27]     2.488e-02  0.11204 0.0015845      0.0015845
u2[28]    -6.073e-01  0.09633 0.0013623      0.0013901
u2[29]     2.431e-01  0.08202 0.0011599      0.0011884
u2[3]      5.058e-01  0.09829 0.0013900      0.0013883
u2[30]     1.620e-01  0.10792 0.0015262      0.0015262
u2[31]     3.377e-02  0.10004 0.0014147      0.0013792
u2[32]    -5.933e-03  0.11036 0.0015607      0.0016031
u2[33]     3.094e-02  0.08284 0.0011716      0.0011716
u2[34]    -1.398e-01  0.13480 0.0019063      0.0019063
u2[35]     1.292e-01  0.11282 0.0015955      0.0015955
u2[36]    -1.791e-01  0.08782 0.0012419      0.0012419
u2[37]    -1.848e-01  0.14151 0.0020013      0.0020013
u2[38]    -1.494e-01  0.09700 0.0013718      0.0013314
u2[39]     1.334e-01  0.10168 0.0014380      0.0014380
u2[4]      1.989e-02  0.08015 0.0011335      0.0011335
u2[40]    -2.343e-01  0.08668 0.0012258      0.0012258
u2[41]     2.145e-01  0.09300 0.0013152      0.0013152
u2[42]     9.601e-02  0.09574 0.0013540      0.0013540
u2[43]    -8.772e-02  0.09138 0.0012923      0.0012928
u2[44]    -2.468e-01  0.12554 0.0017754      0.0017754
u2[45]    -1.079e-01  0.09969 0.0014098      0.0014098
u2[46]    -3.515e-01  0.08046 0.0011378      0.0011378
u2[47]    -4.023e-02  0.07993 0.0011304      0.0011304
u2[48]    -4.375e-02  0.27017 0.0038208      0.0034446
u2[49]     4.534e-02  0.06962 0.0009845      0.0009845
u2[5]      2.448e-01  0.11974 0.0016933      0.0016933
u2[50]    -3.006e-01  0.08561 0.0012107      0.0012107
u2[51]    -5.001e-02  0.09477 0.0013403      0.0013403
u2[52]     3.863e-01  0.09176 0.0012977      0.0012977
u2[53]     7.279e-01  0.08780 0.0012417      0.0012731
u2[54]    -5.525e-01  0.20693 0.0029264      0.0030939
u2[55]     5.075e-01  0.10066 0.0014236      0.0014534
u2[56]     1.400e-02  0.11368 0.0016077      0.0018033
u2[57]     3.406e-02  0.09091 0.0012857      0.0012857
u2[58]     1.399e-01  0.11561 0.0016349      0.0016349
u2[59]    -6.584e-01  0.10524 0.0014883      0.0015636
u2[6]      5.465e-01  0.08247 0.0011662      0.0011662
u2[60]     2.274e-01  0.08225 0.0011632      0.0012008
u2[61]    -3.848e-02  0.09041 0.0012786      0.0012963
u2[62]    -5.157e-02  0.08483 0.0011997      0.0011997
u2[63]     5.397e-01  0.12704 0.0017967      0.0017061
u2[64]     8.922e-02  0.09437 0.0013346      0.0013346
u2[65]    -1.643e-01  0.08115 0.0011476      0.0011476
u2[7]      3.830e-01  0.07814 0.0011050      0.0011381
u2[8]     -2.266e-02  0.07346 0.0010389      0.0010389
u2[9]     -1.330e-01  0.12049 0.0017040      0.0018576

2. Quantiles for each variable:

                2.5%        25%        50%        75%      97.5%
beta[1]   -7.747e-02 -2.394e-02  3.098e-03  2.955e-02  8.082e-02
beta[2]    5.393e-01  5.549e-01  5.633e-01  5.716e-01  5.870e-01
deviance   9.188e+03  9.200e+03  9.208e+03  9.217e+03  9.235e+03
sigma2     5.416e-01  5.575e-01  5.663e-01  5.748e-01  5.920e-01
sigma2.u2  6.516e-02  8.286e-02  9.503e-02  1.084e-01  1.412e-01
u2[1]      2.137e-01  3.182e-01  3.754e-01  4.335e-01  5.422e-01
u2[10]    -5.236e-01 -4.051e-01 -3.353e-01 -2.664e-01 -1.385e-01
u2[11]    -5.727e-04  1.208e-01  1.823e-01  2.439e-01  3.614e-01
u2[12]    -2.684e-01 -1.278e-01 -5.802e-02  1.164e-02  1.475e-01
u2[13]    -3.256e-01 -2.104e-01 -1.470e-01 -8.570e-02  3.059e-02
u2[14]    -2.642e-01 -1.996e-01 -1.634e-01 -1.271e-01 -5.935e-02
u2[15]    -3.360e-01 -2.328e-01 -1.808e-01 -1.303e-01 -2.875e-02
u2[16]    -5.588e-01 -4.599e-01 -4.087e-01 -3.569e-01 -2.514e-01
u2[17]    -3.041e-01 -2.163e-01 -1.713e-01 -1.267e-01 -4.513e-02
u2[18]    -2.127e-01 -1.256e-01 -8.155e-02 -3.772e-02  5.099e-02
u2[19]    -2.021e-01 -7.636e-02 -9.920e-03  5.439e-02  1.701e-01
u2[2]      3.084e-01  4.375e-01  5.055e-01  5.706e-01  7.019e-01
u2[20]    -2.701e-03  1.406e-01  2.156e-01  2.878e-01  4.280e-01
u2[21]     8.209e-02  1.870e-01  2.465e-01  3.055e-01  4.099e-01
u2[22]    -5.821e-01 -4.835e-01 -4.317e-01 -3.798e-01 -2.820e-01
u2[23]    -7.415e-01 -5.787e-01 -4.876e-01 -4.023e-01 -2.286e-01
u2[24]    -1.945e-02  1.337e-01  2.080e-01  2.846e-01  4.314e-01
u2[25]    -3.967e-01 -2.861e-01 -2.273e-01 -1.684e-01 -6.023e-02
u2[26]    -1.868e-01 -7.761e-02 -2.320e-02  3.128e-02  1.398e-01
u2[27]    -1.948e-01 -5.004e-02  2.425e-02  1.001e-01  2.427e-01
u2[28]    -7.958e-01 -6.735e-01 -6.059e-01 -5.423e-01 -4.181e-01
u2[29]     8.218e-02  1.888e-01  2.440e-01  2.983e-01  4.016e-01
u2[3]      3.092e-01  4.407e-01  5.068e-01  5.721e-01  6.950e-01
u2[30]    -4.754e-02  9.095e-02  1.628e-01  2.349e-01  3.743e-01
u2[31]    -1.620e-01 -3.258e-02  3.524e-02  1.005e-01  2.282e-01
u2[32]    -2.185e-01 -8.095e-02 -7.655e-03  6.780e-02  2.138e-01
u2[33]    -1.311e-01 -2.376e-02  3.103e-02  8.600e-02  1.930e-01
u2[34]    -4.086e-01 -2.326e-01 -1.395e-01 -4.422e-02  1.202e-01
u2[35]    -8.934e-02  5.237e-02  1.272e-01  2.059e-01  3.523e-01
u2[36]    -3.470e-01 -2.383e-01 -1.790e-01 -1.190e-01 -6.890e-03
u2[37]    -4.552e-01 -2.830e-01 -1.844e-01 -8.676e-02  9.278e-02
u2[38]    -3.371e-01 -2.162e-01 -1.486e-01 -8.362e-02  4.272e-02
u2[39]    -6.533e-02  6.461e-02  1.323e-01  2.011e-01  3.323e-01
u2[4]     -1.344e-01 -3.491e-02  1.985e-02  7.477e-02  1.753e-01
u2[40]    -4.072e-01 -2.922e-01 -2.312e-01 -1.782e-01 -6.697e-02
u2[41]     3.461e-02  1.530e-01  2.140e-01  2.777e-01  3.975e-01
u2[42]    -9.200e-02  3.265e-02  9.579e-02  1.585e-01  2.832e-01
u2[43]    -2.698e-01 -1.486e-01 -9.013e-02 -2.538e-02  9.367e-02
u2[44]    -4.898e-01 -3.322e-01 -2.461e-01 -1.623e-01 -1.844e-03
u2[45]    -2.994e-01 -1.758e-01 -1.103e-01 -4.030e-02  9.050e-02
u2[46]    -5.045e-01 -4.063e-01 -3.507e-01 -2.987e-01 -1.917e-01
u2[47]    -1.979e-01 -9.323e-02 -4.049e-02  1.330e-02  1.161e-01
u2[48]    -5.702e-01 -2.251e-01 -4.559e-02  1.385e-01  4.959e-01
u2[49]    -9.310e-02 -1.063e-03  4.578e-02  9.129e-02  1.830e-01
u2[5]      8.413e-03  1.652e-01  2.428e-01  3.274e-01  4.771e-01
u2[50]    -4.688e-01 -3.584e-01 -3.007e-01 -2.425e-01 -1.330e-01
u2[51]    -2.383e-01 -1.136e-01 -5.074e-02  1.458e-02  1.362e-01
u2[52]     2.084e-01  3.231e-01  3.863e-01  4.477e-01  5.680e-01
u2[53]     5.581e-01  6.682e-01  7.263e-01  7.861e-01  8.980e-01
u2[54]    -9.750e-01 -6.891e-01 -5.519e-01 -4.132e-01 -1.578e-01
u2[55]     3.136e-01  4.395e-01  5.062e-01  5.760e-01  7.054e-01
u2[56]    -2.113e-01 -6.369e-02  1.251e-02  9.050e-02  2.376e-01
u2[57]    -1.443e-01 -2.635e-02  3.363e-02  9.702e-02  2.114e-01
u2[58]    -9.032e-02  6.196e-02  1.386e-01  2.185e-01  3.681e-01
u2[59]    -8.645e-01 -7.293e-01 -6.583e-01 -5.866e-01 -4.532e-01
u2[6]      3.850e-01  4.894e-01  5.456e-01  6.032e-01  7.119e-01
u2[60]     6.317e-02  1.724e-01  2.274e-01  2.833e-01  3.868e-01
u2[61]    -2.171e-01 -9.953e-02 -3.800e-02  2.214e-02  1.348e-01
u2[62]    -2.156e-01 -1.098e-01 -5.308e-02  5.658e-03  1.137e-01
u2[63]     2.854e-01  4.543e-01  5.408e-01  6.231e-01  7.859e-01
u2[64]    -9.261e-02  2.479e-02  8.890e-02  1.538e-01  2.746e-01
u2[65]    -3.206e-01 -2.190e-01 -1.656e-01 -1.092e-01 -3.608e-03
u2[7]      2.264e-01  3.302e-01  3.834e-01  4.354e-01  5.336e-01
u2[8]     -1.670e-01 -7.151e-02 -2.260e-02  2.773e-02  1.187e-01
u2[9]     -3.642e-01 -2.173e-01 -1.326e-01 -5.250e-02  1.029e-01

> sixway(mymodel[, "beta[1]", drop = FALSE])
> 
> # 25.3 Binomial hierarchical centering algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
> 
> # 25.4 Binomial example in practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .410
> 
> ## Read bang1 data
> data(bang1, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> 
> ## Hierarchical centring at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcOptions = list(hcen = 2)), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2321.997404
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2327.585268
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2321.835949
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2333.488457
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2328.141877
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2356.348956
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2337.670384
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2362.011026
Adapting finished and took 900 iterations
Adapting took 900 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2324.805020
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2344.719559
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2306.690866
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2323.219514
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2334.066554
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2317.602088
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2315.162676
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2308.230590
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2316.616239
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2320.708799

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.079521
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.800352
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.271930
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.754597
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.836582
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.601062
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.541984
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.493455
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2351.385559
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.644048
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.090992
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.871820
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.415265
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2350.724113
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.332451
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.881610
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.024760
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.006173
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.774261
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.568357
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.959243
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.709623
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.883781
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.474559
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.726472
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.073376
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.223509
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.016318
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.652269
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.517580
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.549416
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.147919
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.604654
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.513183
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.198441
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.010403
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.518418
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.136123
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.209466
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.846424
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.415954
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.825187
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.729694
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.464395
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.837300
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.046710
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.528268
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.084537
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.929140
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.330878
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.510786
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.768191
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2350.553494
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.011625
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.314829
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.099749
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.599818
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.976715
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.308600
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.490079
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.759931
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.580516
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2356.284580
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.076173
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.734160
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.383153
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2365.568353
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.666829
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.670882
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.683215
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.833698
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.925696
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.863424
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.888795
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.577546
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.187521
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.878777
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.753743
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.390801
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.593322
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.980343
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.036897
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.195445
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.673969
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.648632
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2371.231424
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.870566
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.314504
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2296.608934
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.799568
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.607167
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.296813
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.877424
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.491946
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.033385
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.935976
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.538706
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.633976
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.988823
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.620444
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2329.5
S.D.    =          14.065
S.E.M.  =         0.19891

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 5.56s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2329.539   2272.872   56.667     2386.206   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.72927     0.16111  -10.73   7.104e-27  ***    -2.04359    -1.40918   104 
age              -0.02697     0.00776   -3.47   0.0005142  ***    -0.04147    -0.01172   271 
lcOne_child       1.14530     0.16420    6.97   3.062e-12  ***     0.80737     1.46922   143 
lcTwo_children    1.37430     0.17141    8.02   1.079e-15  ***     1.03279     1.70287   113 
lcThree_plus      1.37546     0.18196    7.56   4.052e-14  ***     1.00041     1.72395    95 
urbanUrban        0.81532     0.17504    4.66   3.195e-06  ***     0.48278     1.16211   261 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.41999     0.13368      0.21330     0.73119   282 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.43372     0.17122     -0.81863    -0.16057   150 
var_urbanUrban              0.73152     0.30300      0.26982     1.42654   108 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> trajectories(mymodel)
dev.new(): using pdf(file="Rplots6.pdf")
> 
> ## Hierarchical centring at level 2 + Orthogonal updates
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcOptions = list(hcen = 2, orth = 1)), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2350.033165
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2330.222407
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2348.866271
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2327.988512
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2308.575304
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2325.742624
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2307.871982
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2330.134837
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2309.720825
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2340.250272
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2321.515805
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2322.838787
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2305.484770
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2333.734268
Adapting finished and took 1500 iterations
Adapting took 1500 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2322.991888
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2328.156691
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2342.097970
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2321.647674
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2314.859982
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2320.668513
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2346.172937
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2348.846411
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2352.794954
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2305.324658

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.034596
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.582862
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.815588
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.609568
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.701119
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.577540
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.245978
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.956094
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.621543
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.045171
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.643428
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.103125
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.336872
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.520784
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.819481
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.815414
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.331594
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.348190
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2300.108889
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2296.417381
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.609417
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.833490
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.347777
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.197173
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.174024
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.971606
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.488746
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.062366
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.394316
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.971568
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.907936
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2306.722256
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.688551
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.643313
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.075358
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.407142
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.445018
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.904576
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.090056
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.555600
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.816835
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.518495
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.846449
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.587657
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.388168
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.798354
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.122003
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.441489
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.432124
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.994018
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.735641
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.922021
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.504973
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.261688
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.628073
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.400070
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.037083
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.687085
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.243254
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.032003
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.315061
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.145203
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.564766
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.245874
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.938130
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.592609
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.230173
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.363756
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.651061
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.049488
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.409085
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2350.336805
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.796248
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.499156
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.780609
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.485633
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.622381
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.743838
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.654600
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.858244
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.029142
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.904118
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.188512
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.456261
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.204950
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.396105
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.802655
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2365.796961
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.874777
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.525217
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.762933
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.525991
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.762782
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.438430
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.313221
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.300077
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.167960
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2352.661373
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.193526
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.539985
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2328.9
S.D.    =          14.084
S.E.M.  =         0.19918

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 6.35s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2328.880   2271.360   57.521     2386.401   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept        -1.73256     0.16661  -10.40     2.5e-25  ***    -2.07524    -1.41430    431 
age              -0.02704     0.00803   -3.37   0.0007591  ***    -0.04227    -0.01131   1007 
lcOne_child       1.14280     0.16013    7.14   9.551e-13  ***     0.83835     1.46413   1016 
lcTwo_children    1.37221     0.17715    7.75   9.472e-15  ***     1.02654     1.73940    957 
lcThree_plus      1.37240     0.18230    7.53   5.137e-14  ***     1.02000     1.74063   1005 
urbanUrban        0.82920     0.17884    4.64   3.541e-06  ***     0.48936     1.19403    134 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.43259     0.14490      0.21696     0.78387   169 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.44979     0.18560     -0.88683    -0.17380   109 
var_urbanUrban              0.75664     0.32454      0.28980     1.53035   105 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> trajectories(mymodel)
dev.new(): using pdf(file="Rplots7.pdf")
> 
> # 25.5 The Melanoma example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .414
> 
> ## Read mmmec data
> data(mmmec, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> contrasts(mmmec$nation, 9) <- diag(9)
> 
> ## Define the model Hierarchical centring at level 2
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 0 + nation + nation:uvbi + offset(log(exp)) + (1 | region), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000), mcmcOptions = list(hcen = 2)), data = mmmec))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 3
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2040.569499
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2027.946303
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2030.797903
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2023.055925
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2017.954881
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2042.614365
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2029.650232
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2019.279796
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2053.171014
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2034.962484
Adapting finished and took 1100 iterations
Adapting took 1100 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2028.148546
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2016.369372
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2004.449741
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2044.261992
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2019.012967
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2005.281991
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2039.409196
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2021.649330
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2038.122983
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2013.326861

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.295783
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.865712
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.826917
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.183752
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.163139
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.090923
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.678035
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.647500
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.076261
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.629091
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.808876
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.138612
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.963850
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.530956
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.423454
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.031129
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.802517
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.458763
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.073853
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.701036
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.023484
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.882701
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.239876
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.429095
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.762460
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.154225
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.576592
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.797527
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.912271
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.509445
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.930088
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.718783
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.691457
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.986380
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.488210
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.461579
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.021703
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.729122
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.582069
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.630171
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.916751
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.805792
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.252208
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.256209
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.075108
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.656809
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.872686
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.859976
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.199393
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.182334
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.873641
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.413244
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.358724
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2059.998774
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.469663
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.720094
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.215324
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.280232
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.733628
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.629703
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.239440
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.013361
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.469286
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.713206
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.481209
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.363716
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.867339
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.811780
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.913203
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.901247
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.523090
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.383751
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.992676
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.861221
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.905946
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2083.423816
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.002743
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.668541
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.083121
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.390485
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.825935
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.811402
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.361060
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.883064
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.322992
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.048981
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.040195
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.070918
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.715400
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.978890
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.297103
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.019271
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.383020
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.550772
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.867890
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.431022
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.366357
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.981730
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.585976
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.599044
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.254787
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.962468
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.387962
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.491390
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.653096
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.387402
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.695859
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.073893
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.936865
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.573993
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.911856
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.200558
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.360773
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.587506
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.950075
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.322703
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.233547
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.302364
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.208109
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.139843
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.964371
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.206133
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.070089
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.995847
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.510733
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.278229
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.928955
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.649271
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.950008
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.040080
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.862909
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.666430
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.291531
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.968402
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.503075
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.540635
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.690064
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.261781
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.422865
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.252952
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.248110
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.103599
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.905738
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.627602
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.719607
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.031177
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.125031
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.948344
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2079.585211
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.376155
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.332340
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.032959
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.229009
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.392615
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.727146
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.916949
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.311484
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.474780
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.438039
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.068206
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.036446
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.242469
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.431764
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.174848
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.517371
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.661797
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.748473
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.516521
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.780588
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.442768
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.462528
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.743223
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.201546
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.481984
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.491266
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.099932
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.758471
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.894743
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.499391
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.720959
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.379438
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.445727
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.787364
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.936913
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.822243
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2067.319666
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.332207
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.190752
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.097934
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.638711
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.309424
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.415002
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.189399
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.260657
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.235500
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.409011
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.771582
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.254580
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.149633
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.678186
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.186397
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.553066
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.934615
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.287778
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.343368
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.798157
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.668988
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.045917
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.236602
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.508780
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.829795
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.957967
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.465752
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.660867
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.100584
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.179551
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.387704
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.842392
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.769354
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.001919
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.242323
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.929274
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.926675
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.140673
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.018721
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.643082
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.228258
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.858845
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.841729
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.492614
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.158375
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.436957
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.385509
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.222133
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2063.322423
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.353537
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.234771
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.358465
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.927264
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.999142
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.903372
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.548677
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.899569
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.695296
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.515148
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.398153
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.339263
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.647310
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.294472
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.743725
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.144040
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.704793
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.393201
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.878337
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.209216
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.051121
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.991514
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.403834
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.794121
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.815475
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.174012
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.665498
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.884852
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.155553
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.219938
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.732448
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.464795
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.527815
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.995255
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.570093
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.304626
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.013521
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.759961
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.493207
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.766661
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.886359
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.594394
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.673267
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.475716
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.090497
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.915737
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.382931
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.474789
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.350948
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.140136
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.249110
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.868628
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.235363
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.763827
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.380844
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.797933
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.573236
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.082504
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.018070
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.026469
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.620247
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.561738
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.655869
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.621672
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.764633
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.029407
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.970424
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.122193
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.568065
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.511750
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2061.891371
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.058777
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.097398
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.384973
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.827896
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.397319
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.795854
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.419051
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.678233
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.630226
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.898545
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.589984
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.705290
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.205584
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.427985
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.038321
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.372884
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.862127
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.584938
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.342806
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.451066
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.373103
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.507402
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.886368
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.803957
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.019152
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.698805
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.433650
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.263437
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.778189
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.594479
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.298700
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.079036
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.046503
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.012481
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.640320
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.507066
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.288280
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.817743
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.539730
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.444638
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.299567
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.473815
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.489173
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.878533
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.833229
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.539276
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.627961
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.712161
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.796578
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.790019
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.580355
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.369899
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.981070
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.685034
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.485734
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.191094
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.924902
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.144180
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.868738
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.626808
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.311218
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.704139
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.971020
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.046034
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.256489
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.353681
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.966937
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.692082
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.698905
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.567449
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.524113
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.082963
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.141731
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.570783
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.271157
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2073.203994
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.343354
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.950658
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.292249
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.572729
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.918904
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.014318
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.367496
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.807075
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.802100
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.233594
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.100236
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.440690
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.933665
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.153610
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.223613
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.079286
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.804117
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.343974
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.580056
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.675587
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.761449
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.235493
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.631668
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.215782
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.293454
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.779342
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.205413
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.264123
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.797993
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.646345
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.842498
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.464255
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.637817
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.747410
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.009889
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.480740
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.938703
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.905043
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.510544
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.112017
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.319674
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.107987
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.506695
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.678026
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.398201
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.877553
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.324467
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.306270
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.882874
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.657832
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.534621
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.324165
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.160564
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.982310
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.637034
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.244180
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.679495
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.052851
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.172959
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.866321
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2056.246356
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.791024
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.640679
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.247904
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.214393
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.799725
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.514835
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.538267
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.619400
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.975629
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.533137
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.188993
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.865784
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.598021
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.088965
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.338819
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.095726
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.081261
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.245808
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.798985
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.569444
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2071.285025
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.228170
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.506215
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.257727
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.996671
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.307405
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.657867
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.859463
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.701330
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.591033
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.739371
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.587026
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.218288
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.992798
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.684727
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.803814
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.428355
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.275251
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.028481
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.520148
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.894653
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.667835
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.188528
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.201033
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.961030
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.637732
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.636410
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.741550
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.422701
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.391337
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.190090
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.630913
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.925833
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.842536
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.627025
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.962227
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.690510
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.523215
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.868808
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.078162
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.618285
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.310978
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.641555
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.119851
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.265677
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.003010
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.137543
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.824286
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.468255
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.504004
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.276017
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.899479
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.269376
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.335006
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.533821
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.643873
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.862782
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.587086
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.937860
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.632952
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.445915
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.041726
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.765509
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.890186
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.059433
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.902343
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.203309
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.209173
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.859832
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.970333
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.900204
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.063757
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.936026
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2061.286858
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.378310
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.140324
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.328980
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.626064
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.644980
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.742151
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.064974
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.725349
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.319446
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.877812
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.497533
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.886557
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.412895
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.370411
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.675310
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.701096
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.441974
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.610427
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.470052
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.879014
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.582559
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.575946
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.354794
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.715506
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.194540
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.582475
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.603064
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.138514
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.981498
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.215543
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.624153
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.076540
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.437093
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.150573
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.260616
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.597970
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.739422
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.653281
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.696016
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.300287
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.615604
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.997047
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.753260
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.078403
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.109929
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.312319
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.830394
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.980908
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1994.824223
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.874505
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.814362
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.629342
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.459893
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.440543
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.054763
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2068.412328
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.665047
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.005753
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.146874
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.139062
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.694050
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.394591
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.525614
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1998.343301
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.206239
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.870635
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.503932
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.341675
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.064903
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.226975
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.411874
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.991827
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.326249
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.168322
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.332853
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.803621
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.987342
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.774431
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.493840
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.391159
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.858266
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.192430
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.273069
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.756428
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.262105
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.640187
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.661209
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.655669
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.382801
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.296397
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.453619
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.065543
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.084830
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.998225
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.354585
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.450884
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.155048
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.889042
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.262291
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.930649
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.769225
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.305749
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.354734
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.675978
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.031973
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.465628
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.029075
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.630819
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.816162
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.599569
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.408219
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.482865
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.386413
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.123941
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.683770
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.728516
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.759876
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.433569
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.141118
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.759514
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.676952
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.357921
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.684943
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.421498
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.634048
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.449955
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.286504
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.752160
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.639257
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.180932
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.731199
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.055516
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.018300
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.403393
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.635180
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.122886
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.518366
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.487659
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.444664
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.289730
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.475094
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.805018
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.625498
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.928806
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.457242
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.387053
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.917694
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.545160
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.221575
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.966274
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.131461
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.155683
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.907651
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.898563
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.865853
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.179151
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.826196
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.766497
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.379008
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.006107
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.944467
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.256547
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.877840
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.263328
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.817637
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.418830
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.534072
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.942204
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.527600
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.867724
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.874991
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.092073
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.936049
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.214005
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.833243
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.553934
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.094915
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.467801
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.301374
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.414175
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.915933
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.369454
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.091273
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.151316
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.993957
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.051077
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.622656
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.508158
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.081598
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.829095
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.306064
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.758830
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.084119
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.754554
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.984756
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.785303
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2059.629995
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.774415
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.308233
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.770297
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.744870
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.969372
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.100686
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.182280
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.409355
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.710142
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.662041
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.179870
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.346771
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2070.677267
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.678209
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.309155
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.015526
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.662419
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.004162
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.468549
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.102833
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.794614
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.739422
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.279380
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.007055
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.030901
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.909442
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.515266
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2064.361852
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.859613
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.294424
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.153271
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.591696
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.357350
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.088608
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.775541
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.383314
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.783538
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.588077
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.879454
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.371555
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.696745
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.068957
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.702469
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.218493
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.408124
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2056.952223
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.113786
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.903376
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.734206
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.762196
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.254571
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.451080
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.275116
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.582291
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.163617
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.656935
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.551777
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.664869
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.375525
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.104592
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.084008
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.059891
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.689948
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.322416
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.485489
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.393542
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.735423
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.186825
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.535897
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.429735
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.582839
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.493978
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.291040
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.361136
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.650743
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.357861
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.861924
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.244504
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.706991
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.389576
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.198674
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.603874
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.478758
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.826442
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.783912
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.366346
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.829437
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.537725
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.925250
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.458920
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.754286
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.649281
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.392584
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.688428
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.421356
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.019849
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.919795
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.906770
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.205898
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.240141
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.994104
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.788978
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.231969
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.387063
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.980357
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.254178
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.555865
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.498727
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.880412
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.907703
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.129847
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.978235
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.061826
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.298916
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.477965
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.503976
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.310205
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.194675
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.845955
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.351933
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.532264
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.529333
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.292405
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.424311
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.637766
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.071030
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.469753
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.403852
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.367300
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.421091
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.786345
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.409845
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.460373
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.242771
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.729410
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.160264
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.621579
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.470196
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.320874
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.950081
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.721329
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.580823
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.801668
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.663216
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.666032
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.204396
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.944693
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.958508
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.374479
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.310252
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.259487
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.232099
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.208870
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.204748
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.149943
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.108444
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.145562
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.760482
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.143369
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.978151
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.433044
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.881896
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.658859
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.242120
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.036229
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.641284
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.939603
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.490507
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.195689
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.125228
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.415456
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.104374
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2060.314718
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.555058
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.385516
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.464216
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.193303
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.894626
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.246052
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.968910
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.665506
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.872723
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.311687
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.434705
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.352120
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.544254
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.548496
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1996.200663
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.397285
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.604946
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.723224
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.953260
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.046978
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.008126
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.620766
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.720166
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.270696
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.973568
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.871713
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.103414
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.890760
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.089622
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.631237
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.312373
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.072314
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.915804
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.699669
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.751236
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.978063
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.117827
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.752329
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.928572
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.016470
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.628693
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.727983
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.872152
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.472123
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.976873
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.896194
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.913467
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.774353
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.947379
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.018273
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.869320
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.098638
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.088346
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.251114
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.747697
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.692435
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.906729
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.946910
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.227822
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.234035
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.586206
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.139540
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.852693
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.942461
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.409575
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.231523
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.345896
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.608129
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.905350
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.598492
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.458896
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.655397
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.849811
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.851173
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.762283
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.648625
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.992458
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.309050
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.361901
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.097823
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.298543
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.543027
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.905737
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.769812
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.442997
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.175624
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.253134
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.765484
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.923989
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.268842
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.860386
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.301899
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.702491
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          2029.3
S.D.    =          12.392
S.E.M.  =        0.055419

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
region 78   1 4.538462  13         78            1      4.538462           13
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 6.14s 
Number of obs:  354 (from total 354)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2029.275   1967.332   61.943     2091.217   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 0 + nation + nation:uvbi + offset(log(exp)) + (1 | 
    region)
Level 2: region     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                            Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
nationBelgium             0.63446     0.80862    0.78      0.4327         -1.06787     2.10708     19 
nationW_Germany           0.46856     0.12890    3.64   0.0002779  ***     0.22253     0.72733    198 
nationDenmark             0.15416     0.80720    0.19      0.8485         -1.29287     1.67495     13 
nationFrance             -0.59285     0.05515  -10.75   5.987e-27  ***    -0.70149    -0.48587   5248 
nationUK                  0.61892     0.20948    2.95    0.003132  **      0.25987     1.09710     78 
nationItaly               0.28246     0.10417    2.71    0.006696  **      0.07938     0.48487    495 
nationIreland            -0.63661     1.06452   -0.60      0.5498         -2.78458     1.30123     40 
nationLuxembourg         -5.51270     5.38534   -1.02       0.306        -14.28980     7.94864     10 
nationNetherlands        -0.34338     0.81745   -0.42      0.6744         -2.07065     1.07936     15 
nationBelgium:uvbi        0.24178     0.27296    0.89      0.3757         -0.33558     0.74081     17 
nationW_Germany:uvbi     -0.01665     0.03499   -0.48      0.6342         -0.08446     0.05374    154 
nationDenmark:uvbi       -0.11171     0.14225   -0.79      0.4323         -0.36849     0.15559     12 
nationFrance:uvbi         0.01271     0.01825    0.70      0.4861         -0.02247     0.04897   1455 
nationUK:uvbi             0.14284     0.04321    3.31   0.0009461  ***     0.07092     0.24315     67 
nationItaly:uvbi         -0.08742     0.01568   -5.58   2.446e-08  ***    -0.11828    -0.05770    396 
nationIreland:uvbi       -0.02177     0.21408   -0.10       0.919         -0.45327     0.36859     39 
nationLuxembourg:uvbi    -2.39593     2.33900   -1.02      0.3057         -6.20565     3.48897     10 
nationNetherlands:uvbi   -0.11214     0.19553   -0.57      0.5663         -0.52986     0.22401     14 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the region level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.03663     0.00915      0.02207     0.05768   3075 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "FP_nationBelgium", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 100, "beta_1")
> 
> ## Hierarchical centring at level 2 + Orthogonal updates
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 0 + nation + nation:uvbi + offset(log(exp)) + (1 | region), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000), mcmcOptions = list(orth = 1, hcen = 2)), data = mmmec))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 3
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2053.379065
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2017.668999
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2028.698138
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2041.238066
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2030.099430
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2036.624997
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2034.406964
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2035.030629
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2024.666320
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2033.207016
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2038.836125
Adapting finished and took 1200 iterations
Adapting took 1200 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2019.449047
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2027.783324
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2028.396814
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2045.056616
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2025.241309
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2022.902746
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2025.919135
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2032.228947
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2040.873502
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2018.199599

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.499931
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.505681
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.344156
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.426920
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.966705
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.454459
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.303439
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.381264
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.183530
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.948340
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.921940
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.488738
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.732262
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.818585
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.377052
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.716815
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.386390
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.326924
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.185089
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.152668
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.055378
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.324116
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.509005
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.997709
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.957816
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.519419
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.489442
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.989774
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.029555
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.466747
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.007672
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.310097
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.668952
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.901422
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.461260
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.462363
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.193792
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.697313
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.545671
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.795331
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.984669
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.908560
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.200759
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.915504
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.932865
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.149545
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.414961
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.770491
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.597919
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.383181
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.843578
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.523862
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.621801
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.499310
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.872750
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.853116
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.192402
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.989053
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.678205
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.211367
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.609313
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.501354
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.856121
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.793691
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.969100
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.402040
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.611040
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.792778
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.816702
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.727332
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.644410
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.923501
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.026812
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.684805
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.143549
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.944188
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.446054
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.502784
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.200779
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.498981
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.160865
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.070602
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.321447
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.653392
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.635203
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.369797
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.072867
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.276298
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.685318
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.493346
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.985598
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.945924
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.686748
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.565626
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.959543
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.047732
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.655723
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.496106
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.269446
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.397224
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.658377
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.534240
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2067.521688
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.844222
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.621464
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.344893
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.184631
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.097214
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.300285
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.722048
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.435570
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.900731
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.711475
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.021331
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.653154
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.157159
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.444935
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.055929
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.172036
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.376097
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.013384
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.119664
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.283656
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.504832
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.580936
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.578895
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.643719
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.289520
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.530266
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.865844
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.701883
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.256562
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.012756
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.273384
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.589028
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.980552
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.292873
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.410331
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.774736
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.586358
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.621775
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.603205
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.112184
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.640730
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.419119
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.186246
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.921070
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.404225
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.664016
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.018086
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.633588
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.073177
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.406675
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.485415
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.496025
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.719898
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.918776
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.346345
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.468690
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.208346
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.253080
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.202646
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.646554
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.870350
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.224131
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.662142
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.465979
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.479754
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.421449
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.992810
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.177045
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.007639
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.888198
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.001070
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.307388
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.905441
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.077041
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.598907
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1998.257720
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.961784
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.706435
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.420456
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.930341
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.292043
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.547390
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.924822
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.243097
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.015649
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.669786
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.499102
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.144397
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.737868
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.484764
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.686904
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.080516
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.611657
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.658342
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.314887
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.517896
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.223747
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.041844
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.862850
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.150965
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.772927
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.119193
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.978352
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.330767
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.215682
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.020673
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.725788
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.308651
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.569654
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.706124
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.039166
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.877094
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.134863
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.506055
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.047883
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.117251
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.785102
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.717843
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.506576
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.899184
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.821702
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.066433
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.892266
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.544959
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.045573
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.476013
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.992897
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.765655
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.485218
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.771152
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.841468
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.120338
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.185920
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.233324
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.408924
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.342409
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.622117
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.180805
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.056613
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.271199
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.699151
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.611990
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.611366
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.643259
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.886585
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.135729
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.079881
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.995844
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.269768
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.997402
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.543165
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.289408
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.930940
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.856303
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.737469
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.653090
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.129261
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.676207
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.580128
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.538911
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.497047
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.390968
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.371453
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.806481
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.040594
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.632847
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.262399
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.634076
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.787094
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.097665
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.466615
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.318448
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.559498
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.910169
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.599480
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.260474
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.009155
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.498677
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.226639
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.404417
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.551912
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.654745
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.579405
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.826059
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.282542
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.785660
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.109783
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.901568
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.610007
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.040375
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.131712
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.432403
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.565216
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.828665
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.959738
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.696144
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.061655
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.285621
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.605175
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.559765
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.835791
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.780930
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.690450
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.635899
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.196482
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.723649
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.024493
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.917282
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.054927
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.296911
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.714656
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.718829
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2056.058548
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2067.136989
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.659325
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.287618
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2062.679558
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.248155
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.797126
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.963367
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.171843
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.212218
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.425748
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.839240
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.955208
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.108079
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.338332
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.342465
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.544736
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.363255
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.490609
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.707926
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2063.360124
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.602094
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.629204
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.215633
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.456704
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.661018
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.452928
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.044891
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.480838
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.148235
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.339528
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.330760
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.807716
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.484237
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.545898
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.258006
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.588716
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.859472
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2059.341951
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.339990
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.075030
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.851108
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.176476
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.762384
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.974431
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.539769
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.903803
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.302485
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.052311
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.175946
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.552978
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.145119
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.126153
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.383581
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.779186
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.361430
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.172021
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.049695
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.317003
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.501011
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.408186
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.057968
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.992726
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.251548
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.078273
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.932255
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.851622
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.172626
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.846216
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.177541
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.052238
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.666295
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.727497
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.096552
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.346890
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.610718
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.945743
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.460889
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.050507
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.744207
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.011665
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.313636
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.054266
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.177444
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.390164
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.513686
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.507118
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.008247
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.531996
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.626496
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.932530
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.192318
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.282691
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.493420
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.091957
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.075467
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.731073
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.518143
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.983146
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.683012
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.766206
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.476278
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2069.092147
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.619073
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.771190
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.932836
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.072038
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.764400
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.170691
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.705480
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.653248
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.605137
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.112982
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.791324
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.773068
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.347250
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.041733
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.466478
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.053409
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.089698
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.806778
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.639273
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.311300
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.105271
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.363064
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.085791
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.286266
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.530199
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.767644
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.115948
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.844683
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.757694
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.098628
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.962951
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.759711
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.983329
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.672962
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.047993
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.697855
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.156807
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.679556
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.700767
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.698092
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.882873
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.294182
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.721955
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.367252
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.234546
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.855232
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.113852
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.349762
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.914498
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.710389
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.930974
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.929020
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.717101
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.034117
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.315063
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.295039
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.803477
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.928578
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.082442
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.164194
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.468465
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.907291
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.403810
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.229987
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.591156
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.776575
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.125707
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.449467
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.432031
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.192359
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.203583
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.603865
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2065.100488
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.413878
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.701725
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.148047
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.960018
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.871717
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.451982
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.357412
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.271355
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.740335
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.841059
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.075362
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.157557
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.357992
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.702704
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.570787
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.972862
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.292141
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.392970
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.963013
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.784022
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.344280
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.875074
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.286960
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.848778
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.108625
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.073437
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.330889
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1994.647205
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.461218
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.881166
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.712956
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.400460
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.226484
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.394044
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.113739
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.595024
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.647310
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.867568
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.686227
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.783824
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.164035
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.172120
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.056158
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.216328
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.157249
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.667094
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.550254
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.851975
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.645456
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.913753
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.418059
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.402149
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.481077
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.601422
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.556389
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.196084
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.945502
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.756969
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.910027
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.089481
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.307071
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.334404
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.386583
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.799852
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.319777
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.886429
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.588170
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.640449
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.048135
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.695938
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.622894
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.646926
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.783570
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.597824
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.334505
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.076319
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.957285
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.869282
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.125678
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.368906
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2063.818503
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.893580
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.074960
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.932800
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.821856
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.372268
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.018661
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.435946
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.160595
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.209720
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.033012
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.594940
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.718233
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.082807
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.966728
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.728829
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.629331
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.110984
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.435975
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.664289
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.952299
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.636158
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.022393
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.335838
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.140911
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.410998
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.393412
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.034735
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.489271
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.645728
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.251196
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.620668
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.423975
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.988089
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.216677
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.359335
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.531921
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.694723
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.150098
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.524771
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.890321
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.181708
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.210546
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.912815
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.890887
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.316009
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.067038
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.747629
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.774533
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.681398
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.021878
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.932794
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.287853
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.092648
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.006426
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.970914
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.653385
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.670437
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.302395
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.019996
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.646030
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.847625
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.412064
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.974664
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.641681
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.033916
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.704422
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.741709
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.423399
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.958418
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.984490
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.575322
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.230735
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.072284
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.298244
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.782462
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.299790
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.920520
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.681184
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.138910
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.548700
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.900671
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.398993
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.596695
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.089535
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.417129
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.884058
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.561817
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.357064
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.975555
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.556439
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.337430
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.731576
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.806066
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.368858
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.407667
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.546989
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.888762
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.064894
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.880312
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.654137
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.360520
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.292454
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.077243
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.480552
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.941513
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.231134
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.064726
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.214897
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.842079
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.245255
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.603797
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.744269
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2064.185629
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.166553
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.531445
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.867367
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.885707
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.477105
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.388472
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.784012
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.515656
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.021490
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.236878
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.189470
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.386810
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.849273
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.300656
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.494743
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.671718
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.987022
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.856714
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.169424
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.275191
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.283479
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.446050
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.591026
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.353431
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.886376
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.042859
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.448262
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.876024
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.977341
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.037268
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.230963
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.559963
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.029777
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.733304
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.293204
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.006428
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.647195
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.597123
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.808426
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.516399
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.050593
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.720061
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.199562
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.369247
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.816041
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.640898
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.908341
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.171979
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.236578
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.263484
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.385018
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.487487
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.936036
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.988066
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.764197
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.528664
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.808715
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.089620
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.708790
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.749856
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.119981
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.691365
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.092209
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.512410
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.925706
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.384707
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.633393
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.120287
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.690390
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.139896
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.129281
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.253094
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.677196
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.784826
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.245979
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.523820
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.327839
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.613011
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.864874
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.514655
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.722697
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.173524
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.924750
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.042472
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.173606
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.409987
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.264081
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.138212
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.872581
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.016439
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.101728
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.819572
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.270259
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.075505
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.271678
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.537719
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.907653
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1998.311891
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.407312
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.167974
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.440037
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.572570
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1997.784652
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.774035
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.256634
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.867184
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.327574
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.100231
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.742949
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.577061
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.773329
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.478159
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.414911
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.116094
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.000500
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.515682
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.701253
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.956538
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.257533
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.389304
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.271213
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.463199
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.249419
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.130535
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.494870
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.441729
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.686119
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.532733
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.257295
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.024968
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.697339
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.990195
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.579211
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.438464
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.543475
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.400929
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.361846
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.971054
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.187909
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.976309
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.008061
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.924301
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.034693
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.865392
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.304596
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.989025
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.601967
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.917079
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.379575
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.081194
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.036859
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.449436
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.514919
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.964863
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.833766
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.707840
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.933787
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.260958
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.319506
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.510129
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.532853
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.073226
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.545298
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.092145
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.557477
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.632557
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.666352
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.677214
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.788614
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.880499
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.322106
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.409862
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.025530
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.518879
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.965222
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.729383
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.047145
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.142636
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.429437
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.962827
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.478557
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.356335
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.180819
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.566864
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.332666
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.500177
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.225459
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2059.021486
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.812119
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.177081
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.954788
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.807622
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.200260
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.153997
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2060.012908
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.457803
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.310670
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2065.396135
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.502256
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.500814
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.462570
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.532097
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.626795
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.573423
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.289026
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.336294
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.405792
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.543488
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.766773
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.551140
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.059012
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.107316
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.312093
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.955721
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.070314
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.435464
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.017095
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.222742
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.667503
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.739644
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.105439
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.963023
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1999.455639
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.473051
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.689198
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.467899
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.253614
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.002661
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.022117
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.774508
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.409975
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.023836
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.568430
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.791284
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.876803
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.973607
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.643766
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.974978
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.782398
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.683171
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.993455
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.158553
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.959455
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.136942
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.476542
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.583498
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.381496
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.117380
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.610973
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.797384
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.428421
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.794292
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.330261
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.382547
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2056.328835
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.493189
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.274997
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.804040
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.476493
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.828604
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.706031
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.961691
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.267608
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.341592
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.013047
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.636393
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.696918
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.096180
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.502655
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.005728
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.334026
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.360633
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1999.622005
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.665765
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.555928
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.561402
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.675761
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.982459
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.133943
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.947392
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.713287
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.711100
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.166158
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.446313
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.028868
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.300823
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.251430
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.953577
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.872090
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.847598
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.892954
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.827134
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.876658
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.625192
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.356954
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.821939
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.686352
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.637930
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.010239
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.323052
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.678470
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.810929
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.977561
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.388377
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.981780
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.128125
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.947919
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.237151
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.137398
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.454778
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.344884
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.834005
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.582607
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.117879
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.957567
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          2028.3
S.D.    =          12.639
S.E.M.  =        0.056525

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
region 78   1 4.538462  13         78            1      4.538462           13
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 6.36s 
Number of obs:  354 (from total 354)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2028.350   1965.031   63.319     2091.668   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 0 + nation + nation:uvbi + offset(log(exp)) + (1 | 
    region)
Level 2: region     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                            Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
nationBelgium             0.69634     0.74475    0.94      0.3498         -0.74426     2.18335   5049 
nationW_Germany           0.47637     0.12348    3.86   0.0001144  ***     0.23310     0.71861   1465 
nationDenmark             0.31084     0.87143    0.36      0.7213         -1.37826     2.01620   5084 
nationFrance             -0.59427     0.05469  -10.87   1.655e-27  ***    -0.70152    -0.48682   8799 
nationUK                  0.60349     0.20629    2.93     0.00344  **      0.20611     1.01493   1023 
nationItaly               0.28135     0.10428    2.70    0.006978  **      0.07305     0.48316   2012 
nationIreland            -0.48763     1.29978   -0.38      0.7075         -3.02934     2.06163   6064 
nationLuxembourg         17.31496    16.00528    1.08      0.2793        -11.27219    51.23437   1403 
nationNetherlands        -0.36635     0.94483   -0.39      0.6982         -2.25386     1.46457   2022 
nationBelgium:uvbi        0.26296     0.25091    1.05      0.2946         -0.22241     0.76885   4937 
nationW_Germany:uvbi     -0.01427     0.03306   -0.43      0.6661         -0.08011     0.04966   1035 
nationDenmark:uvbi       -0.08383     0.15376   -0.55      0.5856         -0.38042     0.21704   5076 
nationFrance:uvbi         0.01363     0.01801    0.76      0.4493         -0.02101     0.04967   1725 
nationUK:uvbi             0.13969     0.04247    3.29    0.001005  **      0.05812     0.22433    965 
nationItaly:uvbi         -0.08705     0.01571   -5.54   3.032e-08  ***    -0.11746    -0.05587   1492 
nationIreland:uvbi        0.00920     0.26302    0.03      0.9721         -0.49891     0.52994   5298 
nationLuxembourg:uvbi     7.55419     6.98761    1.08      0.2797         -4.86284    22.39140   1382 
nationNetherlands:uvbi   -0.11764     0.22679   -0.52       0.604         -0.57059     0.32224   1975 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the region level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.03690     0.00917      0.02225     0.05789   5548 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "FP_nationBelgium", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 100, "beta_1")
> 
> # 25.6 Normal response models in MLwiN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419
> 
> ## Read tutorial data
> data(tutorial, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model Univariate MH Hierarchical centring at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(fixM = 2, 
+   residM = 2), mcmcOptions = list(hcen = 2)), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 1 1 1 1
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9208.915658
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9230.679265
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9217.559045
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9189.162327
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9206.613940
Adapting finished and took 600 iterations
Adapting took 600 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9231.779477
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9199.521841
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9199.328258
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9220.212437
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9192.080037
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9205.259272
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9179.446217
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9215.145080
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9217.475975
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9202.290605

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.011245
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.610586
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.086758
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9190.503391
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.280419
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.026109
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.464295
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.191403
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.289676
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.646684
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.686543
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.188136
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.132820
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.461364
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.314346
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.665201
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.315205
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9192.400232
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9239.810274
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.461236
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.760743
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.017445
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.436663
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9190.637070
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9238.533142
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9235.853527
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.999522
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9260.614278
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.395818
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.885134
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9234.413656
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.212268
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.309447
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.530804
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.148744
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.442032
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.737016
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.852416
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.529620
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.894193
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.573388
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.512257
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.002781
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.301869
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9237.481294
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.324985
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.983613
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.256341
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.690312
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.596947
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.220848
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9230.056459
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.565239
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.727465
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.690371
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.517727
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.276509
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.102868
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.901282
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.911242
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.495787
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.711862
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.361371
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.062075
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9223.439057
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9246.628280
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.232960
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.363127
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.536069
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9180.425923
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.426634
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9183.128144
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.183375
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9189.256701
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.327587
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9189.485951
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.473271
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.995707
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.561341
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.886353
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.765492
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.600688
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.881125
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.280402
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.377971
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9230.569055
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.901056
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.068681
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.587799
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.444686
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.672046
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9196.364229
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.768176
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9231.087474
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.835563
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.747587
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.122580
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.353070
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.493620
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.569510
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9209.5
S.D.    =          12.002
S.E.M.  =         0.16973

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.95s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9209.487   9149.353   60.134     9269.620   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00357     0.04060   0.09       0.93         -0.07487     0.08439   2878 
standlrt    0.56366     0.01225  46.00          0  ***     0.53959     0.58734   1073 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.09600     0.01989      0.06350     0.14065   1938 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56619     0.01261      0.54227     0.59142   4021 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> trajectories(mymodel, Range = c(4501, 5000))
> ## Gibbs Hierarchical centring at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(hcen = 2)), 
+   data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9204.740588
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9215.905794
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9242.550740
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9215.712606
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9200.295505
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9229.765465
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9223.729434
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9218.222643
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9217.099037
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9199.119000

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.725881
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.352955
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.977306
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.759108
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9238.044015
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.559014
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.442367
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.700455
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.077888
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.866652
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.759232
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.217376
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9236.697073
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.992523
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.697492
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.039577
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.181070
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.138892
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.120504
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.277640
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.292613
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.907323
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9189.668579
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9186.636802
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.802826
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.013181
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.491939
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.808794
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.502236
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.390144
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.537044
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.817323
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.785521
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.828936
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.698088
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.592283
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.898492
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.093920
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.599714
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.720479
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.192731
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.680322
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.455896
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9239.696467
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.177492
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.756990
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9196.999637
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.726471
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.103021
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.064419
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.323970
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.957685
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.629795
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.639210
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9229.388099
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9223.127869
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.035713
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9196.959212
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.857819
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.531570
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.045688
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9229.866438
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.590549
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.309459
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9190.946407
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.238902
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.695169
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.471714
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.182146
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.918410
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.229439
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9223.780905
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.754909
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.144834
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.153920
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.898804
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9190.961575
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.765578
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.939083
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.457055
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.695230
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.828300
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.945106
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9224.167757
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.653862
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.442175
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.858810
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9232.239527
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.425030
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.097070
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.444101
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.864768
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.515807
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.709454
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.516296
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.559161
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.664441
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.936919
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.668632
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.432681
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9209.1
S.D.    =          11.960
S.E.M.  =         0.16915

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.39s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9209.110   9149.124   59.985     9269.095   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00234     0.04041   0.06     0.9538         -0.07755     0.08051   4117 
standlrt    0.56342     0.01247  45.18          0  ***     0.53877     0.58816   4027 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.09707     0.01985      0.06472     0.14212   3143 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56618     0.01249      0.54220     0.59090   4744 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> trajectories(mymodel, Range = c(4501, 5000))
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .422
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ############################################################################
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  18.70    7.87  217.87