R version 3.6.3 (2020-02-29) -- "Holding the Windsock"
Copyright (C) 2020 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

  Natural language support but running in an English locale

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 24  Parameter expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .381
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> # 24.1 What is Parameter Expansion? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .381
> 
> # 24.2 The tutorial example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .383
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> ## Read tutorial data
> data(tutorial, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9204.262556
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9225.063419
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9205.620423
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9207.286175
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9189.882541
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9213.131781
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9191.967839
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9200.072789
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9197.978878
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9206.312775

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9182.514808
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9224.799767
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9192.533264
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9235.302728
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9192.588497
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.798346
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.971258
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.471053
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.792403
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9185.644474
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.752807
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.223665
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.804872
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.519349
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9189.609771
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.416013
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.107554
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.303837
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.273065
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.690604
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.236489
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.185496
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.517749
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.032838
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.460499
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.333397
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.977623
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.427472
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.575111
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.428957
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.886427
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.521334
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.777166
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.900296
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.265053
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.987061
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.776243
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.497296
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9224.467108
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.146736
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.845807
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9224.944089
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.612843
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.265355
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.222358
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9250.643212
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.598687
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.421500
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9240.315838
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9235.012216
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.825586
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.910444
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.293627
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.222052
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.264188
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.039764
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9230.996469
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9224.580436
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.499799
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.292584
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.040587
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.604250
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.541549
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.256474
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.029403
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9186.699312
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.823399
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.867998
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.418322
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.509889
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.940598
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.426437
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.104187
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.433860
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.530610
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.678566
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.101902
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.943453
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.646620
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.272707
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9185.496662
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.693995
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.338782
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.098365
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9192.878156
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.471250
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.216161
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.835575
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.972779
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9223.102763
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.956845
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.960121
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.101999
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.476225
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.003009
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9186.582930
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.744286
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.521835
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.720494
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.075214
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9208.8
S.D.    =          12.005
S.E.M.  =         0.16978

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.39s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9208.817   9148.971   59.846     9268.664   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00133     0.04216   0.03     0.9748         -0.07762     0.08519    208 
standlrt    0.56331     0.01254  44.93          0  ***     0.53892     0.58799   4017 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.09732     0.02049      0.06441     0.14454   2981 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56634     0.01269      0.54175     0.59197   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> summary(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     0.0973183      0.0204921      0.0002898      0.0003753 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

   2.5%     25%     50%     75%   97.5% 
0.06441 0.08274 0.09490 0.10922 0.14454 

> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u2")
> 
> ## Parameter expansion at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 
+   1))), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9206.256682
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9216.254685
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9235.946932
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9212.954664
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9200.530256
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9228.393294
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9223.260054
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9213.573758
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9221.489519
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9199.318421

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.150600
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.012173
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.674130
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9192.716741
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9238.707627
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.337227
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.178147
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.160601
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.003736
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.817372
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.438305
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.749174
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9235.131599
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.993249
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.868500
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.552071
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.512232
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.925272
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9189.648545
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.896500
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.319315
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.995420
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9187.596121
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.211631
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.858253
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.843518
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9192.312098
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.369895
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.201894
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.492260
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.952315
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.370916
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.026452
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.150137
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.382084
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.738924
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.681272
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.305458
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.821899
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.041589
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.750966
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.260973
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.608479
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9239.946963
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.875468
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.685335
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.341120
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.229044
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.592119
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.309566
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.855630
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.536797
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.140756
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.968891
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9223.754525
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.765273
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.237180
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.595986
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.580135
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.398636
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.465536
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.425624
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.542505
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.955585
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9192.601124
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.078956
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.088411
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9222.042582
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.121802
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.493729
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.100864
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.019470
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.085411
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.106519
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.020709
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.869337
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9190.177548
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.067416
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.593754
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.445733
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.489444
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.671583
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.391507
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9229.055146
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.343615
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.103583
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.052994
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9232.964615
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.225337
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.184667
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.078047
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.512663
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.354333
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.948019
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.527444
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.767416
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.400514
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.218779
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.769841
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.641688
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9209.0
S.D.    =          11.938
S.E.M.  =         0.16883

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.61s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9209.015   9148.934   60.081     9269.097   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00323     0.04458   0.07     0.9423         -0.08401     0.09317    220 
standlrt    0.56304     0.01251  45.00          0  ***     0.53869     0.58684   4318 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.09833     0.02039      0.06489     0.14465   2607 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56617     0.01249      0.54207     0.59099   4747 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 24.3 Binary responses - Voting example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386
> 
> 
> ## Read bes83 data
> data(bes83, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | area), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bes83))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 879.790947
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 882.146982
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 885.737538
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 879.064325
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.693943
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 878.694250
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 881.610352
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 876.518389
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 873.342851
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 848.480244
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 849.057237
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 845.303298
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 840.088815
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.428522
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 850.446876
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.473997
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 878.948727
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 892.166502
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 886.915389
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 858.999885
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 887.636462
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 879.387476
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 880.269962
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 879.922999
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 881.853099
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.164339
Adapting for 2700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 878.890026
Adapting for 2800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 859.510364
Adapting for 2900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 874.423396
Adapting for 3000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.365128
Adapting for 3100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 873.505696
Adapting for 3200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 873.081790
Adapting for 3300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 855.026766
Adapting for 3400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 874.552380
Adapting for 3500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 874.442259
Adapting for 3600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 844.408723
Adapting finished and took 3700 iterations
Adapting took 3700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 888.275902
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 873.085712
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 869.957398
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 869.101914
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 844.830185
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 858.536981
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 874.305490
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 873.350424
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 872.644611
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 880.750571

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.606505
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.191379
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.729344
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.771105
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.325446
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 893.646399
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 889.407123
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 892.844984
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 881.993058
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.703320
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.184930
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.666854
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.519821
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.274526
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 885.446978
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.784243
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.775954
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.460264
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.514593
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.852092
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.477771
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.841636
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.827374
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.923811
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.219150
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.171162
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.803032
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.828571
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.631638
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.284738
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.457906
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.629308
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.959314
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.985489
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.137704
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.005181
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.073160
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.969177
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.612202
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.663689
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 842.952004
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.482835
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.912195
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.383827
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.609393
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.716032
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.761951
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.504368
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 864.903621
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.153431
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.387227
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.307467
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.004041
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 866.567847
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.120056
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.062881
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.369012
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.925223
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.781052
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 888.021193
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.555723
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.724176
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.129434
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.360388
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 831.911116
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 830.794343
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.801718
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.783761
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 891.455547
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.200312
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.758787
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.156291
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.966669
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.112375
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 871.873318
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.645329
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.926636
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.828598
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 843.637851
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.888624
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 842.299226
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.913751
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 858.048474
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.715126
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.466169
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.721162
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.461147
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.948220
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.111142
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.017197
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 880.272183
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.366722
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.880305
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.638214
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.782578
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.047089
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.808708
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.906533
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.530584
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.910503
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          867.39
S.D.    =          13.001
S.E.M.  =         0.18386

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
       N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
area 110   1 7.272727  16        110            1      7.272727           16
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 3.36s 
Number of obs:  800 (from total 800)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
867.395    845.738    21.657     889.052    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | 
    area)
Level 2: area     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.36547     0.09432  -3.87   0.0001068  ***    -0.54580    -0.18137   677 
defence      0.09203     0.01850   4.97   6.581e-07  ***     0.05552     0.12855   901 
unemp        0.06963     0.01376   5.06   4.208e-07  ***     0.04340     0.09747   953 
taxes        0.04641     0.01969   2.36     0.01844  *       0.00645     0.08374   945 
privat       0.14290     0.01842   7.76   8.664e-15  ***     0.10606     0.17894   907 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.14285     0.11590      0.00429     0.43386    36 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 500, "sigma2u0")
> 
> ## Parameter expansion at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | area), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 1))), data = bes83))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.712456
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 887.477710
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.070210
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 885.512627
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 864.146247
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.357511
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 884.059373
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 889.677056
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.147365
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.345291
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 864.704075
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 858.310065
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 858.475453
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 856.547851
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 875.858996
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 851.343774
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.107343
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.728046
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 859.625748
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.708464
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 857.461994
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 832.503252
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 864.626061
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 872.089223
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 843.844109
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 876.588695
Adapting for 2700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 875.031816
Adapting for 2800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.098958
Adapting for 2900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 845.908937
Adapting for 3000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 882.915927
Adapting for 3100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 875.585337
Adapting for 3200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 883.281626
Adapting for 3300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 850.769378
Adapting for 3400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 831.339683
Adapting for 3500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 854.575084
Adapting for 3600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 856.891068
Adapting for 3700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.069145
Adapting for 3800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 883.238537
Adapting for 3900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.434290
Adapting for 4000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 855.792032
Adapting for 4100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 872.373864
Adapting for 4200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.762402
Adapting for 4300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.327205
Adapting for 4400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 857.987592
Adapting for 4500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 882.080911
Adapting for 4600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 856.455616
Adapting for 4700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 843.517926
Adapting for 4800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 867.136154
Adapting for 4900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 867.114066
Adapting finished and took 5000 iterations
Adapting took 5000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 845.526331
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 879.210281
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 872.447827
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 852.097184
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 853.263653
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 875.026076
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 845.919057
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 843.252780
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 874.051878
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 855.738733

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 842.799369
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 835.659099
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.664262
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.019894
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.050033
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 840.912780
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.344243
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.724387
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.019534
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 843.924064
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 853.147298
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.167301
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.982687
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.082267
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.412560
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.885188
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.586571
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.595016
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.376079
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.195402
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.228484
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 843.270313
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 850.490926
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.844456
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 887.538500
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.756814
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.843339
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 880.121377
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.220138
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 871.313359
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.002619
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.193374
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.771211
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.535782
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.840977
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.847990
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.071404
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.781178
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.821995
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.849830
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 885.328362
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.839557
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.826015
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.299139
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.256894
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.323459
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 871.804018
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.903319
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 885.611430
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.697636
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.957832
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.783083
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 836.002366
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.727229
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.571369
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.608033
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.651732
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.565828
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 833.708054
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 853.982864
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.232442
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 864.463121
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.828636
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.548439
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 840.550477
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.321734
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.719952
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.005357
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 858.571619
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.981352
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.906319
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.916338
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.502354
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 839.131576
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.632998
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.961460
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.651217
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.420842
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.097392
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.008701
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 881.464455
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.509801
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 837.080708
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 858.573666
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.644005
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.460200
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.291311
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.108586
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.665817
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 861.855639
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.852536
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.474566
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.368512
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 866.283173
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.083925
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 883.487517
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 883.202124
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.994729
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.061995
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.554515
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          862.89
S.D.    =          13.974
S.E.M.  =         0.19762

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
       N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
area 110   1 7.272727  16        110            1      7.272727           16
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.56s 
Number of obs:  800 (from total 800)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
862.891    836.402    26.490     889.381    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | 
    area)
Level 2: area     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.37400     0.10206  -3.66   0.0002479  ***    -0.58528    -0.17359    542 
defence      0.09337     0.01913   4.88    1.05e-06  ***     0.05601     0.13192   1020 
unemp        0.07048     0.01400   5.03   4.791e-07  ***     0.04427     0.09888    885 
taxes        0.04529     0.01981   2.29     0.02225  *       0.00671     0.08528    848 
privat       0.14526     0.01844   7.88   3.398e-15  ***     0.10841     0.18066    847 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.19670     0.14271      0.00588     0.54753   172 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 500, "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 24.4 The choice of prior distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .390
> 
> ## Uniform on the variance scale priors+Parameter expansion at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | area), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(priorcode = 0), mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 1))), data = bes83))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 0 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 839.766204
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 883.915300
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 832.090867
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.985130
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 850.195571
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 864.943808
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 829.760919
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 859.516526
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.170864
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 850.094164
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 873.111888
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.374287
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 849.935362
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 869.256884
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 878.182034
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 858.564799
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 862.890939
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 839.871503
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 866.450471
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 859.759951
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 872.702894
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 874.304645
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 876.644720
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 872.008813
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 867.496081
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 841.073868
Adapting for 2700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 868.569273
Adapting for 2800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.428872
Adapting for 2900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.927915
Adapting for 3000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 868.447307
Adapting for 3100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 871.702510
Adapting for 3200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 857.563925
Adapting for 3300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.387921
Adapting for 3400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 845.223773
Adapting for 3500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 848.909299
Adapting for 3600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.057293
Adapting for 3700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.847228
Adapting for 3800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 856.746125
Adapting for 3900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 869.179769
Adapting for 4000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 849.098965
Adapting for 4100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 866.049735
Adapting for 4200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 834.932418
Adapting for 4300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.527155
Adapting for 4400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.638921
Adapting for 4500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 866.999207
Adapting for 4600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 885.432063
Adapting for 4700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 886.068768
Adapting for 4800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.322081
Adapting for 4900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 830.239305
Adapting finished and took 5000 iterations
Adapting took 5000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 879.360879
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 835.122860
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 859.098561
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 878.284121
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 880.872067
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 864.751033
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 867.832287
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 876.761506
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 864.046309
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 856.885600

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.586832
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.136271
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.839355
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.603975
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 880.963318
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.913088
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.909909
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 827.434198
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 871.703415
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.817594
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.042001
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 881.321230
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.491086
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.359313
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.503589
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.965770
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.718274
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.315974
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 892.431978
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.135645
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.687579
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.975742
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.053634
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 892.243875
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 887.652644
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 890.666868
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.064029
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 891.058123
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 887.523032
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.596151
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 881.600679
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 883.588502
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.523086
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.297377
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.882702
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.025732
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.968841
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.595792
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.030824
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.206117
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.752201
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.712085
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.831280
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.198648
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.101621
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 849.105092
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 850.918967
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.064139
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.920570
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.715426
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.384543
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.510564
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.681032
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.181855
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.480098
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.267553
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.490747
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.502078
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.344393
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 832.631094
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 826.822026
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.402631
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.006860
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.612943
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.195700
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.180315
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 850.353071
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.701186
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.081603
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.592415
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 839.095052
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.687823
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.662213
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.133189
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.923218
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.148614
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.833729
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.490716
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 840.538345
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.263079
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.209309
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.313930
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 861.431180
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.836294
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.555170
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 858.519147
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.486297
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.785823
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.705615
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.853604
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 842.188475
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.059260
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 861.640629
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.881661
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 832.757670
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.554316
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.266811
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 836.090250
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 843.631571
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.440909
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          862.64
S.D.    =          16.374
S.E.M.  =         0.23157

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
       N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
area 110   1 7.272727  16        110            1      7.272727           16
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.6s 
Number of obs:  800 (from total 800)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
862.642    835.217    27.425     890.068    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | 
    area)
Level 2: area     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.37759     0.09853  -3.83    0.000127  ***    -0.57738    -0.19958   152 
defence      0.09419     0.01886   4.99    5.94e-07  ***     0.05690     0.13130   522 
unemp        0.06984     0.01419   4.92   8.585e-07  ***     0.04320     0.09827   933 
taxes        0.04640     0.02037   2.28     0.02273  *       0.00740     0.08773   917 
privat       0.14626     0.01868   7.83   4.921e-15  ***     0.11013     0.18370   466 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.21512     0.17375      0.00014     0.64481    39 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 100, "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 24.5 Parameter expansion and WinBUGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391
> 
> mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | area), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(priorcode = 0), mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 1)), show.file = TRUE), BUGO = c(version = 4, n.chains = 1, 
+   debug = FALSE, seed = 1, OpenBugs = TRUE), data = bes83)
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed

Loading required namespace: BRugs
Welcome to BRugs connected to OpenBUGS version 3.2.3
model is syntactically correct
data loaded
model compiled
Initializing chain 1: 
model is initialized
model is already initialized
Sampling has been started ...
500 updates took 3 s
deviance set
monitor set for variable 'beta'
monitor set for variable 'u2'
monitor set for variable 'sigma2.u2'
monitor set for variable 'v2'
monitor set for variable 'sigma2.v2'
monitor set for variable 'deviance'
5000 updates took 30 s
> 
> summary(mymodel)

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

                Mean       SD  Naive SE Time-series SE
beta[1]   -3.703e-01  0.09995 0.0014135      0.0021903
beta[2]    9.350e-02  0.01841 0.0002604      0.0003287
beta[3]    6.951e-02  0.01378 0.0001948      0.0002493
beta[4]    4.606e-02  0.01975 0.0002793      0.0003591
beta[5]    1.451e-01  0.01866 0.0002639      0.0003859
deviance   8.626e+02 14.61681 0.2067129      0.5318132
sigma2.u2  2.498e-02  0.07478 0.0010575      0.0178396
sigma2.v2  2.010e-01  0.14693 0.0020779      0.0056230
u2[1]     -6.793e-03  0.14620 0.0020676      0.0059659
u2[10]     4.184e-04  0.13534 0.0019140      0.0014682
u2[100]   -9.435e-03  0.15514 0.0021940      0.0039586
u2[101]    1.021e-02  0.15850 0.0022415      0.0081119
u2[102]   -2.548e-02  0.22501 0.0031821      0.0157772
u2[103]   -9.551e-03  0.16028 0.0022667      0.0084040
u2[104]   -6.895e-03  0.15702 0.0022207      0.0055756
u2[105]   -8.146e-03  0.15247 0.0021562      0.0048024
u2[106]    7.989e-03  0.14880 0.0021044      0.0053110
u2[107]   -5.916e-03  0.14134 0.0019988      0.0034695
u2[108]    9.435e-04  0.13915 0.0019679      0.0047719
u2[109]    5.178e-03  0.14905 0.0021078      0.0031799
u2[11]     6.213e-03  0.14503 0.0020510      0.0057198
u2[110]    3.499e-03  0.14301 0.0020224      0.0024536
u2[12]    -8.721e-03  0.15438 0.0021833      0.0077207
u2[13]     7.703e-03  0.15102 0.0021357      0.0039571
u2[14]    -6.225e-03  0.15009 0.0021226      0.0053336
u2[15]     1.441e-02  0.16894 0.0023891      0.0103432
u2[16]    -1.845e-02  0.18215 0.0025760      0.0107597
u2[17]    -3.947e-03  0.14391 0.0020351      0.0041663
u2[18]    -3.591e-03  0.14944 0.0021134      0.0048172
u2[19]     7.257e-03  0.13200 0.0018668      0.0029964
u2[2]     -2.056e-02  0.19188 0.0027136      0.0136832
u2[20]    -1.007e-02  0.15768 0.0022300      0.0058612
u2[21]     7.843e-03  0.14428 0.0020405      0.0076000
u2[22]    -3.365e-02  0.24866 0.0035166      0.0190638
u2[23]     1.238e-02  0.15996 0.0022621      0.0088756
u2[24]     8.204e-03  0.14404 0.0020371      0.0070565
u2[25]     1.993e-03  0.13976 0.0019765      0.0020954
u2[26]    -2.145e-03  0.13967 0.0019753      0.0017391
u2[27]     1.772e-02  0.18611 0.0026320      0.0124813
u2[28]     5.888e-03  0.13597 0.0019230      0.0038584
u2[29]     1.151e-03  0.14693 0.0020779      0.0026384
u2[3]     -1.278e-02  0.16579 0.0023447      0.0073305
u2[30]    -8.834e-03  0.16013 0.0022646      0.0074055
u2[31]    -6.399e-03  0.15447 0.0021846      0.0045228
u2[32]    -1.229e-03  0.14083 0.0019916      0.0022848
u2[33]     2.959e-03  0.16240 0.0022967      0.0030440
u2[34]    -6.573e-03  0.15299 0.0021636      0.0050931
u2[35]    -5.693e-03  0.13319 0.0018835      0.0030974
u2[36]    -4.473e-03  0.15435 0.0021828      0.0036081
u2[37]    -5.868e-03  0.13388 0.0018933      0.0026303
u2[38]    -2.091e-03  0.15138 0.0021409      0.0025534
u2[39]     4.841e-04  0.14870 0.0021029      0.0024286
u2[4]     -1.216e-03  0.14165 0.0020032      0.0020725
u2[40]     5.637e-04  0.16180 0.0022882      0.0019901
u2[41]     1.262e-02  0.14946 0.0021136      0.0076906
u2[42]    -1.491e-02  0.15988 0.0022611      0.0091370
u2[43]    -7.753e-03  0.14068 0.0019895      0.0070055
u2[44]    -1.921e-02  0.17486 0.0024730      0.0119600
u2[45]    -1.309e-02  0.16637 0.0023528      0.0101102
u2[46]     5.724e-03  0.15681 0.0022177      0.0043610
u2[47]    -9.775e-03  0.15308 0.0021648      0.0078306
u2[48]    -9.016e-03  0.16072 0.0022729      0.0063038
u2[49]     7.895e-03  0.14768 0.0020886      0.0068442
u2[5]     -1.705e-03  0.14154 0.0020017      0.0017643
u2[50]    -4.478e-03  0.14879 0.0021042      0.0049667
u2[51]     6.019e-03  0.14575 0.0020612      0.0037283
u2[52]    -9.020e-03  0.16515 0.0023355      0.0051956
u2[53]     8.366e-03  0.16025 0.0022663      0.0054978
u2[54]     4.183e-03  0.14574 0.0020611      0.0039117
u2[55]     4.626e-04  0.14755 0.0020867      0.0015299
u2[56]    -1.124e-02  0.15325 0.0021673      0.0080748
u2[57]    -3.598e-04  0.13688 0.0019358      0.0021422
u2[58]     1.534e-02  0.16267 0.0023005      0.0118531
u2[59]     1.727e-03  0.14193 0.0020073      0.0021892
u2[6]      1.939e-02  0.19958 0.0028225      0.0143741
u2[60]    -1.287e-03  0.14925 0.0021108      0.0024449
u2[61]    -7.664e-03  0.15253 0.0021571      0.0048891
u2[62]    -5.330e-03  0.14586 0.0020628      0.0038280
u2[63]     1.819e-03  0.14525 0.0020542      0.0033587
u2[64]    -1.140e-02  0.15094 0.0021346      0.0064197
u2[65]    -1.107e-02  0.16750 0.0023688      0.0095110
u2[66]     1.354e-02  0.15274 0.0021601      0.0079410
u2[67]     1.579e-02  0.16608 0.0023487      0.0088584
u2[68]    -7.530e-03  0.14320 0.0020252      0.0069959
u2[69]     4.114e-03  0.14324 0.0020258      0.0029945
u2[7]     -7.217e-03  0.15853 0.0022419      0.0050944
u2[70]    -1.683e-02  0.19355 0.0027372      0.0111448
u2[71]     6.704e-03  0.16199 0.0022909      0.0044459
u2[72]     1.439e-02  0.16761 0.0023703      0.0107554
u2[73]     1.515e-02  0.17452 0.0024681      0.0104834
u2[74]    -2.385e-03  0.14836 0.0020981      0.0037268
u2[75]     1.079e-02  0.16659 0.0023559      0.0077219
u2[76]    -4.299e-04  0.15285 0.0021616      0.0020238
u2[77]    -8.549e-03  0.14105 0.0019948      0.0060484
u2[78]     7.585e-03  0.14938 0.0021126      0.0036611
u2[79]     1.219e-02  0.16805 0.0023766      0.0086297
u2[8]     -8.959e-03  0.13703 0.0019379      0.0056888
u2[80]     2.574e-04  0.14496 0.0020500      0.0018912
u2[81]    -1.501e-03  0.13876 0.0019624      0.0022150
u2[82]     2.709e-02  0.22201 0.0031396      0.0169393
u2[83]    -2.190e-03  0.13354 0.0018885      0.0020549
u2[84]     1.450e-02  0.15846 0.0022410      0.0083118
u2[85]     4.078e-03  0.13948 0.0019725      0.0033860
u2[86]     4.705e-03  0.14560 0.0020591      0.0054827
u2[87]     1.813e-02  0.17937 0.0025367      0.0125815
u2[88]     7.509e-05  0.14364 0.0020314      0.0016847
u2[89]     2.931e-03  0.15111 0.0021371      0.0027018
u2[9]      1.560e-02  0.18552 0.0026237      0.0098767
u2[90]    -1.344e-02  0.15787 0.0022327      0.0073017
u2[91]     5.910e-03  0.14181 0.0020056      0.0043275
u2[92]     2.570e-03  0.14215 0.0020103      0.0018311
u2[93]     1.226e-02  0.15713 0.0022222      0.0072548
u2[94]    -7.577e-03  0.15517 0.0021945      0.0051009
u2[95]     1.505e-05  0.15941 0.0022544      0.0019792
u2[96]     1.729e-02  0.17680 0.0025004      0.0084588
u2[97]     2.566e-03  0.14659 0.0020730      0.0015610
u2[98]     3.680e-03  0.14243 0.0020143      0.0030542
u2[99]     1.300e-02  0.16482 0.0023309      0.0109909
v2[1]     -1.484e-01  0.40910 0.0057856      0.0063270
v2[10]     8.117e-03  0.37418 0.0052917      0.0052917
v2[100]   -9.316e-02  0.42471 0.0060063      0.0063872
v2[101]    1.747e-01  0.42996 0.0060806      0.0071081
v2[102]   -4.782e-01  0.49857 0.0070509      0.0124169
v2[103]   -1.992e-01  0.41294 0.0058399      0.0077788
v2[104]   -1.631e-01  0.40703 0.0057563      0.0068744
v2[105]   -1.244e-01  0.40788 0.0057683      0.0063699
v2[106]    1.538e-01  0.38921 0.0055042      0.0065040
v2[107]   -5.618e-02  0.38194 0.0054015      0.0054015
v2[108]    1.043e-01  0.38808 0.0054883      0.0057279
v2[109]    8.442e-02  0.40450 0.0057206      0.0058745
v2[11]     9.246e-02  0.40138 0.0056763      0.0059457
v2[110]   -1.225e-02  0.37600 0.0053175      0.0053175
v2[12]    -2.042e-01  0.35982 0.0050887      0.0063751
v2[13]     7.291e-02  0.43732 0.0061847      0.0061847
v2[14]    -1.336e-01  0.36486 0.0051599      0.0053385
v2[15]     2.700e-01  0.41557 0.0058771      0.0080224
v2[16]    -3.138e-01  0.43291 0.0061223      0.0094225
v2[17]    -1.271e-01  0.36799 0.0052041      0.0058716
v2[18]    -1.249e-01  0.39325 0.0055613      0.0064518
v2[19]     5.830e-02  0.36112 0.0051070      0.0051913
v2[2]     -3.489e-01  0.43955 0.0062162      0.0103927
v2[20]    -1.571e-01  0.41667 0.0058926      0.0062679
v2[21]     1.572e-01  0.36830 0.0052085      0.0059593
v2[22]    -5.699e-01  0.47235 0.0066800      0.0141445
v2[23]     2.267e-01  0.40231 0.0056895      0.0074971
v2[24]     1.620e-01  0.37934 0.0053647      0.0060600
v2[25]     3.198e-02  0.38665 0.0054681      0.0055948
v2[26]    -2.310e-02  0.38997 0.0055150      0.0055150
v2[27]     3.716e-01  0.47104 0.0066615      0.0111407
v2[28]     8.050e-02  0.34669 0.0049029      0.0049029
v2[29]     2.913e-02  0.38032 0.0053786      0.0053786
v2[3]     -2.382e-01  0.42198 0.0059678      0.0081921
v2[30]    -1.504e-01  0.36538 0.0051673      0.0062473
v2[31]    -1.183e-01  0.43249 0.0061163      0.0064743
v2[32]    -7.213e-02  0.39056 0.0055234      0.0053735
v2[33]     5.000e-02  0.43548 0.0061587      0.0061587
v2[34]    -7.960e-02  0.40900 0.0057841      0.0057841
v2[35]    -8.836e-02  0.35191 0.0049768      0.0049768
v2[36]    -7.358e-02  0.38928 0.0055052      0.0056523
v2[37]    -5.528e-02  0.36539 0.0051674      0.0058451
v2[38]     3.242e-02  0.42108 0.0059550      0.0059550
v2[39]     5.207e-02  0.39459 0.0055804      0.0055804
v2[4]     -2.033e-02  0.37163 0.0052556      0.0054143
v2[40]    -4.143e-02  0.44631 0.0063118      0.0065348
v2[41]     1.739e-01  0.36440 0.0051535      0.0069466
v2[42]    -2.189e-01  0.41069 0.0058081      0.0076221
v2[43]    -1.527e-01  0.37352 0.0052824      0.0052824
v2[44]    -3.192e-01  0.40448 0.0057202      0.0094019
v2[45]    -2.332e-01  0.40788 0.0057683      0.0080496
v2[46]     6.850e-02  0.44190 0.0062495      0.0064417
v2[47]    -1.839e-01  0.40827 0.0057738      0.0069777
v2[48]    -1.780e-01  0.43556 0.0061598      0.0075571
v2[49]     1.410e-01  0.37637 0.0053226      0.0055537
v2[5]     -2.271e-02  0.38078 0.0053851      0.0053851
v2[50]    -1.071e-01  0.36830 0.0052086      0.0058238
v2[51]     9.406e-02  0.37180 0.0052581      0.0054126
v2[52]    -1.342e-01  0.42776 0.0060494      0.0067764
v2[53]     1.172e-01  0.42902 0.0060672      0.0064730
v2[54]     1.059e-01  0.39174 0.0055401      0.0057818
v2[55]     2.104e-02  0.39256 0.0055516      0.0055516
v2[56]    -2.130e-01  0.39555 0.0055939      0.0070977
v2[57]    -2.248e-02  0.37260 0.0052693      0.0056148
v2[58]     2.670e-01  0.40170 0.0056810      0.0080121
v2[59]     5.208e-02  0.39111 0.0055311      0.0056544
v2[6]      4.014e-01  0.45035 0.0063689      0.0109757
v2[60]    -3.116e-02  0.39728 0.0056183      0.0056183
v2[61]    -6.678e-02  0.43799 0.0061941      0.0061941
v2[62]    -9.006e-02  0.39316 0.0055601      0.0058175
v2[63]     4.477e-02  0.38404 0.0054311      0.0054311
v2[64]    -1.113e-01  0.39976 0.0056535      0.0059632
v2[65]    -1.874e-01  0.46238 0.0065391      0.0084596
v2[66]     1.680e-01  0.37808 0.0053468      0.0061219
v2[67]     2.662e-01  0.40870 0.0057799      0.0079451
v2[68]    -1.785e-01  0.35898 0.0050768      0.0064164
v2[69]     8.443e-02  0.39152 0.0055369      0.0055369
v2[7]     -8.265e-02  0.41670 0.0058930      0.0061612
v2[70]    -3.037e-01  0.43301 0.0061236      0.0092542
v2[71]     1.488e-01  0.40944 0.0057903      0.0062894
v2[72]     2.544e-01  0.40095 0.0056704      0.0083891
v2[73]     2.584e-01  0.44548 0.0063001      0.0086780
v2[74]    -6.762e-02  0.41362 0.0058495      0.0058495
v2[75]     2.280e-01  0.41786 0.0059095      0.0073689
v2[76]    -2.204e-02  0.42259 0.0059763      0.0058870
v2[77]    -1.564e-01  0.35353 0.0049997      0.0055552
v2[78]     9.721e-02  0.41115 0.0058145      0.0065235
v2[79]     2.176e-01  0.41059 0.0058067      0.0072732
v2[8]     -1.482e-01  0.36669 0.0051858      0.0061656
v2[80]     4.841e-04  0.40061 0.0056654      0.0056654
v2[81]    -3.901e-02  0.36899 0.0052182      0.0052182
v2[82]     5.106e-01  0.47951 0.0067814      0.0135775
v2[83]    -5.994e-02  0.36884 0.0052162      0.0054622
v2[84]     2.487e-01  0.40490 0.0057262      0.0083362
v2[85]     5.253e-02  0.36450 0.0051548      0.0051548
v2[86]     8.224e-02  0.39880 0.0056399      0.0059389
v2[87]     3.133e-01  0.41252 0.0058339      0.0095558
v2[88]    -4.560e-02  0.40088 0.0056693      0.0056693
v2[89]    -2.358e-03  0.41686 0.0058954      0.0058954
v2[9]      2.938e-01  0.40847 0.0057766      0.0090360
v2[90]    -2.251e-01  0.41312 0.0058424      0.0075670
v2[91]     1.151e-01  0.36868 0.0052139      0.0052139
v2[92]     1.728e-02  0.38414 0.0054326      0.0054326
v2[93]     2.010e-01  0.41095 0.0058118      0.0073863
v2[94]    -1.363e-01  0.41644 0.0058894      0.0071283
v2[95]    -1.701e-02  0.44698 0.0063212      0.0063688
v2[96]     2.883e-01  0.41097 0.0058119      0.0081459
v2[97]    -1.416e-02  0.36487 0.0051600      0.0051600
v2[98]     7.771e-02  0.37392 0.0052881      0.0053665
v2[99]     2.663e-01  0.37997 0.0053736      0.0079364

2. Quantiles for each variable:

                2.5%        25%        50%       75%     97.5%
beta[1]    -0.566109  -0.436927 -3.695e-01  -0.30480  -0.16802
beta[2]     0.058348   0.080973  9.311e-02   0.10551   0.13025
beta[3]     0.042657   0.060163  6.943e-02   0.07881   0.09668
beta[4]     0.007510   0.032969  4.596e-02   0.05915   0.08423
beta[5]     0.109348   0.132165  1.447e-01   0.15754   0.18171
deviance  834.437587 852.042633  8.624e+02 873.64717 887.98824
sigma2.u2   0.000331   0.001760  4.525e-03   0.01239   0.23717
sigma2.v2   0.002110   0.086145  1.754e-01   0.28755   0.54814
u2[1]      -0.295884  -0.046438 -4.022e-03   0.03965   0.24659
u2[10]     -0.253648  -0.037179 -1.680e-04   0.03691   0.24035
u2[100]    -0.315397  -0.046493 -3.468e-03   0.03779   0.25382
u2[101]    -0.264728  -0.037906  3.696e-03   0.05038   0.34580
u2[102]    -0.505877  -0.078217 -1.418e-02   0.05616   0.32554
u2[103]    -0.314433  -0.049055 -4.468e-03   0.03964   0.25599
u2[104]    -0.300129  -0.045266 -2.553e-03   0.03876   0.23970
u2[105]    -0.311205  -0.045387 -3.471e-03   0.03825   0.24860
u2[106]    -0.243939  -0.035401  2.721e-03   0.04647   0.31114
u2[107]    -0.289089  -0.040764 -1.723e-03   0.03483   0.24008
u2[108]    -0.291623  -0.039673  1.342e-03   0.04163   0.28826
u2[109]    -0.262677  -0.038312  1.877e-03   0.04166   0.30167
u2[11]     -0.239317  -0.037844  2.753e-03   0.04222   0.29583
u2[110]    -0.246371  -0.035168  1.970e-03   0.04019   0.27167
u2[12]     -0.317521  -0.044446 -4.684e-03   0.03760   0.25077
u2[13]     -0.263701  -0.039208  1.600e-03   0.04801   0.32847
u2[14]     -0.287452  -0.041406 -2.446e-03   0.03477   0.23871
u2[15]     -0.262401  -0.041353  6.553e-03   0.05694   0.36751
u2[16]     -0.401101  -0.062427 -1.008e-02   0.04131   0.27306
u2[17]     -0.263494  -0.041403 -2.328e-03   0.03595   0.24534
u2[18]     -0.286055  -0.042686 -1.773e-03   0.03945   0.25635
u2[19]     -0.215654  -0.035632  9.880e-04   0.04007   0.26426
u2[2]      -0.441594  -0.065884 -1.065e-02   0.04241   0.29590
u2[20]     -0.316606  -0.048123 -4.722e-03   0.03821   0.26476
u2[21]     -0.250539  -0.037293  2.684e-03   0.04416   0.29835
u2[22]     -0.612357  -0.096556 -2.289e-02   0.06328   0.35914
u2[23]     -0.253022  -0.038885  6.784e-03   0.05157   0.35222
u2[24]     -0.233661  -0.037344  2.367e-03   0.04421   0.29573
u2[25]     -0.243239  -0.038216  4.895e-04   0.03929   0.26144
u2[26]     -0.263210  -0.039915 -1.548e-03   0.03856   0.25538
u2[27]     -0.303717  -0.046687  1.043e-02   0.06660   0.43090
u2[28]     -0.225080  -0.033747  2.214e-03   0.03778   0.26448
u2[29]     -0.274156  -0.037818  8.430e-04   0.04046   0.26755
u2[3]      -0.349819  -0.053754 -5.508e-03   0.03884   0.25893
u2[30]     -0.288289  -0.043736 -4.343e-03   0.03489   0.25376
u2[31]     -0.308713  -0.047906 -4.041e-03   0.03914   0.26145
u2[32]     -0.271789  -0.041500 -1.409e-03   0.03745   0.25536
u2[33]     -0.269837  -0.041048  1.821e-03   0.04393   0.31476
u2[34]     -0.306788  -0.043540 -2.210e-03   0.03716   0.25124
u2[35]     -0.255671  -0.041223 -2.095e-03   0.03396   0.21047
u2[36]     -0.297286  -0.044469 -2.418e-03   0.03627   0.25450
u2[37]     -0.264185  -0.041129 -3.105e-03   0.03307   0.23989
u2[38]     -0.289121  -0.043467 -4.330e-04   0.04097   0.26270
u2[39]     -0.282986  -0.038658  1.870e-03   0.03949   0.27477
u2[4]      -0.260924  -0.040657 -1.370e-03   0.03608   0.23610
u2[40]     -0.292769  -0.043677  1.845e-04   0.04398   0.29344
u2[41]     -0.214832  -0.036502  3.341e-03   0.04598   0.31519
u2[42]     -0.341025  -0.052094 -6.386e-03   0.03706   0.24249
u2[43]     -0.281975  -0.043460 -4.780e-03   0.03659   0.23441
u2[44]     -0.396928  -0.060500 -8.469e-03   0.04221   0.25562
u2[45]     -0.343366  -0.050395 -4.622e-03   0.04129   0.25512
u2[46]     -0.263258  -0.039287  1.593e-03   0.04480   0.30447
u2[47]     -0.319187  -0.048182 -3.813e-03   0.03954   0.24402
u2[48]     -0.347352  -0.049025 -4.249e-03   0.03887   0.26812
u2[49]     -0.243457  -0.037623  2.941e-03   0.04297   0.29709
u2[5]      -0.266950  -0.040093 -2.012e-03   0.03831   0.25685
u2[50]     -0.285125  -0.042081 -2.512e-03   0.03700   0.25814
u2[51]     -0.230836  -0.035833  1.930e-03   0.04106   0.29770
u2[52]     -0.322505  -0.047728 -3.986e-03   0.03746   0.26860
u2[53]     -0.267918  -0.041184  2.883e-03   0.04571   0.35218
u2[54]     -0.248988  -0.039637  2.243e-03   0.04183   0.28632
u2[55]     -0.256710  -0.039283 -6.955e-04   0.03880   0.27981
u2[56]     -0.328537  -0.049366 -5.845e-03   0.03801   0.25666
u2[57]     -0.247325  -0.037238 -2.295e-04   0.03653   0.25588
u2[58]     -0.246371  -0.040164  6.798e-03   0.05362   0.37482
u2[59]     -0.245450  -0.038593  7.575e-04   0.03865   0.27750
u2[6]      -0.297668  -0.048806  1.016e-02   0.06795   0.45510
u2[60]     -0.268760  -0.040431 -6.355e-04   0.03780   0.26390
u2[61]     -0.324453  -0.045395 -2.573e-03   0.03991   0.25207
u2[62]     -0.282744  -0.041300 -1.937e-03   0.03731   0.25823
u2[63]     -0.269150  -0.039045 -8.325e-04   0.03793   0.28966
u2[64]     -0.317083  -0.046900 -3.394e-03   0.03814   0.22056
u2[65]     -0.368441  -0.050735 -4.383e-03   0.04095   0.27870
u2[66]     -0.227964  -0.035730  4.570e-03   0.04684   0.35963
u2[67]     -0.254131  -0.039466  7.310e-03   0.05570   0.36219
u2[68]     -0.326585  -0.043566 -3.238e-03   0.03719   0.24955
u2[69]     -0.241604  -0.035523  3.085e-03   0.04278   0.26042
u2[7]      -0.320307  -0.044116 -2.884e-03   0.03673   0.26385
u2[70]     -0.414904  -0.058450 -8.944e-03   0.04243   0.30750
u2[71]     -0.264892  -0.039318  4.095e-03   0.04714   0.29657
u2[72]     -0.258869  -0.039215  6.612e-03   0.05247   0.36135
u2[73]     -0.267315  -0.040586  6.750e-03   0.05707   0.37278
u2[74]     -0.269255  -0.042332 -1.989e-03   0.03922   0.27299
u2[75]     -0.260319  -0.039304  5.497e-03   0.05220   0.33550
u2[76]     -0.278508  -0.040066 -2.420e-04   0.04279   0.28441
u2[77]     -0.299324  -0.042613 -3.716e-03   0.03423   0.22649
u2[78]     -0.260857  -0.037080  3.255e-03   0.04417   0.29886
u2[79]     -0.261326  -0.037116  5.635e-03   0.04972   0.36508
u2[8]      -0.290956  -0.042685 -4.620e-03   0.03398   0.23113
u2[80]     -0.283147  -0.037168 -4.305e-04   0.03986   0.24921
u2[81]     -0.264276  -0.038639 -6.385e-04   0.03803   0.23046
u2[82]     -0.349312  -0.057013  1.747e-02   0.09002   0.53214
u2[83]     -0.249323  -0.038234 -1.006e-03   0.03693   0.23311
u2[84]     -0.244317  -0.041120  5.875e-03   0.05327   0.35959
u2[85]     -0.244105  -0.035106  3.073e-03   0.03795   0.27100
u2[86]     -0.249218  -0.038412  2.124e-03   0.04145   0.30974
u2[87]     -0.265195  -0.039340  8.023e-03   0.05928   0.41420
u2[88]     -0.258049  -0.041380 -4.350e-04   0.03901   0.25627
u2[89]     -0.250247  -0.041485 -9.710e-04   0.03882   0.28958
u2[9]      -0.290329  -0.039968  7.957e-03   0.05660   0.39023
u2[90]     -0.335933  -0.053064 -4.471e-03   0.03864   0.23599
u2[91]     -0.239120  -0.034700  2.553e-03   0.04245   0.27113
u2[92]     -0.243749  -0.036940 -2.675e-04   0.03801   0.27132
u2[93]     -0.263520  -0.036766  5.319e-03   0.05114   0.35628
u2[94]     -0.317375  -0.047112 -3.744e-03   0.03669   0.24683
u2[95]     -0.308720  -0.042722  8.295e-04   0.04295   0.28575
u2[96]     -0.269644  -0.039755  8.865e-03   0.05901   0.37715
u2[97]     -0.250371  -0.033748  1.267e-03   0.03728   0.26758
u2[98]     -0.272534  -0.036702  2.156e-03   0.04041   0.27910
u2[99]     -0.256943  -0.041558  6.815e-03   0.05189   0.35577
v2[1]      -1.059782  -0.380188 -9.937e-02   0.10002   0.59256
v2[10]     -0.776668  -0.202389  4.269e-03   0.21858   0.78091
v2[100]    -1.037777  -0.324400 -5.571e-02   0.14841   0.73133
v2[101]    -0.626638  -0.083254  1.188e-01   0.41591   1.12726
v2[102]    -1.639007  -0.782325 -3.957e-01  -0.09283   0.26801
v2[103]    -1.107730  -0.435685 -1.513e-01   0.05317   0.54489
v2[104]    -1.069272  -0.391290 -1.117e-01   0.08246   0.56977
v2[105]    -1.022323  -0.347000 -8.117e-02   0.11449   0.65188
v2[106]    -0.576888  -0.083099  1.093e-01   0.38043   1.01351
v2[107]    -0.849548  -0.270646 -3.522e-02   0.16379   0.72473
v2[108]    -0.643774  -0.117438  6.613e-02   0.32871   0.94115
v2[109]    -0.725971  -0.141346  5.204e-02   0.31143   0.96685
v2[11]     -0.668350  -0.131381  5.946e-02   0.30527   0.95749
v2[110]    -0.798601  -0.226090 -7.104e-03   0.20165   0.76274
v2[12]     -0.992290  -0.423772 -1.616e-01   0.02518   0.46162
v2[13]     -0.775332  -0.171928  3.854e-02   0.30967   1.02706
v2[14]     -0.952082  -0.339584 -9.660e-02   0.08242   0.54360
v2[15]     -0.446233  -0.001532  2.133e-01   0.50796   1.20274
v2[16]     -1.319804  -0.560437 -2.441e-01  -0.01416   0.42075
v2[17]     -0.939908  -0.337036 -8.854e-02   0.09078   0.55848
v2[18]     -0.978678  -0.347125 -8.879e-02   0.10387   0.65083
v2[19]     -0.675925  -0.148429  3.863e-02   0.27040   0.82871
v2[2]      -1.337881  -0.612640 -2.875e-01  -0.03030   0.37035
v2[20]     -1.082934  -0.394277 -1.098e-01   0.08842   0.62099
v2[21]     -0.515153  -0.071102  1.138e-01   0.37518   0.97294
v2[22]     -1.632676  -0.867326 -5.117e-01  -0.20385   0.13556
v2[23]     -0.504210  -0.031409  1.761e-01   0.45843   1.13818
v2[24]     -0.547890  -0.058871  1.171e-01   0.38183   1.00185
v2[25]     -0.776527  -0.183248  2.063e-02   0.25286   0.84194
v2[26]     -0.867733  -0.244453 -7.503e-03   0.20687   0.74627
v2[27]     -0.373205   0.025460  2.930e-01   0.63596   1.43626
v2[28]     -0.601216  -0.123854  5.599e-02   0.27775   0.82802
v2[29]     -0.747866  -0.190215  1.847e-02   0.25031   0.82689
v2[3]      -1.188948  -0.485907 -1.699e-01   0.02386   0.47313
v2[30]     -0.943473  -0.365328 -1.076e-01   0.07243   0.51213
v2[31]     -1.052528  -0.350673 -8.194e-02   0.12444   0.69726
v2[32]     -0.925523  -0.280027 -5.230e-02   0.15504   0.70519
v2[33]     -0.831877  -0.184524  2.682e-02   0.28569   0.99047
v2[34]     -0.970828  -0.306426 -5.163e-02   0.15941   0.72172
v2[35]     -0.844727  -0.289430 -6.390e-02   0.12027   0.59867
v2[36]     -0.925343  -0.293691 -4.745e-02   0.15649   0.69311
v2[37]     -0.825973  -0.266530 -2.955e-02   0.16103   0.67568
v2[38]     -0.827551  -0.205794  1.576e-02   0.26735   0.93430
v2[39]     -0.760548  -0.166377  2.836e-02   0.27766   0.89145
v2[4]      -0.772756  -0.230963 -1.334e-02   0.19333   0.70860
v2[40]     -1.001056  -0.280977 -2.091e-02   0.20045   0.88614
v2[41]     -0.486452  -0.052213  1.309e-01   0.38489   0.96743
v2[42]     -1.162948  -0.450056 -1.571e-01   0.03684   0.51058
v2[43]     -0.974887  -0.374247 -1.161e-01   0.06549   0.55734
v2[44]     -1.235319  -0.555391 -2.672e-01  -0.02321   0.33311
v2[45]     -1.148213  -0.466544 -1.693e-01   0.02480   0.48700
v2[46]     -0.811326  -0.168088  3.439e-02   0.30280   0.99858
v2[47]     -1.113049  -0.413630 -1.322e-01   0.06089   0.57097
v2[48]     -1.166477  -0.409802 -1.213e-01   0.07722   0.60782
v2[49]     -0.578161  -0.085853  1.070e-01   0.36374   0.98060
v2[5]      -0.817095  -0.243406 -1.314e-02   0.19988   0.75057
v2[50]     -0.897466  -0.318953 -7.796e-02   0.10946   0.60211
v2[51]     -0.632406  -0.116344  6.383e-02   0.30705   0.89525
v2[52]     -1.071743  -0.367573 -8.815e-02   0.10963   0.67850
v2[53]     -0.711762  -0.131656  7.417e-02   0.36146   1.06693
v2[54]     -0.651534  -0.121812  7.404e-02   0.32632   0.97428
v2[55]     -0.791872  -0.203041  1.534e-02   0.24340   0.82925
v2[56]     -1.105711  -0.439838 -1.632e-01   0.03433   0.51879
v2[57]     -0.809765  -0.229739 -1.505e-02   0.19516   0.75512
v2[58]     -0.425181  -0.002586  2.070e-01   0.49412   1.16223
v2[59]     -0.737387  -0.176138  3.705e-02   0.27507   0.89073
v2[6]      -0.305551   0.060574  3.293e-01   0.66843   1.44979
v2[60]     -0.850627  -0.263636 -2.150e-02   0.19670   0.79728
v2[61]     -0.988504  -0.309993 -4.274e-02   0.17166   0.82533
v2[62]     -0.948838  -0.317529 -5.399e-02   0.13833   0.67705
v2[63]     -0.736893  -0.179885  2.272e-02   0.26184   0.82781
v2[64]     -0.971990  -0.339693 -7.757e-02   0.11959   0.69397
v2[65]     -1.249517  -0.435324 -1.243e-01   0.08035   0.66402
v2[66]     -0.561220  -0.058217  1.267e-01   0.39723   1.00011
v2[67]     -0.450626  -0.004920  2.129e-01   0.50754   1.20983
v2[68]     -0.953701  -0.389837 -1.420e-01   0.04395   0.48625
v2[69]     -0.679131  -0.138224  5.555e-02   0.29541   0.94971
v2[7]      -0.984052  -0.313885 -5.348e-02   0.14778   0.73378
v2[70]     -1.308934  -0.560359 -2.304e-01  -0.00427   0.41547
v2[71]     -0.624990  -0.087813  1.042e-01   0.38827   1.03008
v2[72]     -0.429416  -0.008846  2.023e-01   0.48891   1.15897
v2[73]     -0.493992  -0.024843  1.902e-01   0.49980   1.32916
v2[74]     -0.969005  -0.292361 -4.701e-02   0.16557   0.74110
v2[75]     -0.478373  -0.036414  1.707e-01   0.45091   1.18909
v2[76]     -0.914999  -0.253963 -8.355e-03   0.21572   0.85138
v2[77]     -0.942047  -0.368663 -1.183e-01   0.06102   0.50042
v2[78]     -0.716517  -0.142527  6.146e-02   0.33114   1.01658
v2[79]     -0.522226  -0.041958  1.587e-01   0.45582   1.13556
v2[8]      -0.964915  -0.360290 -1.046e-01   0.07452   0.53682
v2[80]     -0.831811  -0.223370 -1.713e-03   0.22065   0.84864
v2[81]     -0.823836  -0.251012 -1.954e-02   0.17539   0.68604
v2[82]     -0.197567   0.142046  4.376e-01   0.81218   1.58751
v2[83]     -0.842962  -0.270714 -3.385e-02   0.16096   0.67985
v2[84]     -0.459268  -0.014243  1.943e-01   0.48568   1.16427
v2[85]     -0.651902  -0.164700  3.353e-02   0.26306   0.84983
v2[86]     -0.698697  -0.149755  4.643e-02   0.30262   0.94141
v2[87]     -0.361468   0.026941  2.537e-01   0.55901   1.24084
v2[88]     -0.904719  -0.268318 -2.335e-02   0.17711   0.77750
v2[89]     -0.893610  -0.227168 -3.780e-03   0.22242   0.85661
v2[9]      -0.385048   0.006798  2.285e-01   0.54211   1.20689
v2[90]     -1.147646  -0.463562 -1.674e-01   0.02917   0.50382
v2[91]     -0.583574  -0.106526  7.648e-02   0.32847   0.92971
v2[92]     -0.763627  -0.200824  7.349e-03   0.23688   0.83041
v2[93]     -0.538464  -0.044728  1.448e-01   0.43437   1.14113
v2[94]     -1.040984  -0.362884 -9.250e-02   0.10160   0.65485
v2[95]     -0.963559  -0.246463 -8.398e-03   0.23126   0.89480
v2[96]     -0.413773   0.006237  2.368e-01   0.52783   1.20186
v2[97]     -0.775425  -0.219864 -6.304e-03   0.18738   0.72963
v2[98]     -0.680768  -0.138131  5.083e-02   0.29546   0.86262
v2[99]     -0.385392   0.008690  2.171e-01   0.49321   1.11384

> if (!require(coda)) {
+   warning("package coda required to run this example")
+ } else {
+   effectiveSize(mymodel)
+ }
Loading required package: coda
   beta[1]    beta[2]    beta[3]    beta[4]    beta[5]   deviance  sigma2.u2 
2082.38992 3137.59616 3054.57172 3023.83799 2338.38672  755.41777   17.56934 
 sigma2.v2      u2[1]     u2[10]    u2[100]    u2[101]    u2[102]    u2[103] 
 682.81055  600.53345 8496.87421 1535.94660  381.78416  203.39648  363.74657 
   u2[104]    u2[105]    u2[106]    u2[107]    u2[108]    u2[109]     u2[11] 
 793.14391 1007.93462  784.97451 1659.52335  850.37801 2196.91136  642.88266 
   u2[110]     u2[12]     u2[13]     u2[14]     u2[15]     u2[16]     u2[17] 
3397.12020  399.83335 1456.52250  791.86851  266.77428  286.57957 1193.05671 
    u2[18]     u2[19]      u2[2]     u2[20]     u2[21]     u2[22]     u2[23] 
 962.42822 1940.80099  196.64993  723.76965  360.40782  170.13563  324.79907 
    u2[24]     u2[25]     u2[26]     u2[27]     u2[28]     u2[29]      u2[3] 
 416.68485 4448.90135 6450.44873  222.34675 1241.96470 3101.35048  511.52162 
    u2[30]     u2[31]     u2[32]     u2[33]     u2[34]     u2[35]     u2[36] 
 467.55133 1166.52378 3799.22110 2846.35842  902.34167 1848.99067 1829.98866 
    u2[37]     u2[38]     u2[39]      u2[4]     u2[40]     u2[41]     u2[42] 
2590.69901 3514.92682 3748.88799 4671.02028 6610.05118  377.66260  306.18735 
    u2[43]     u2[44]     u2[45]     u2[46]     u2[47]     u2[48]     u2[49] 
 403.27417  213.76663  270.79334 1292.96714  382.14773  650.03064  465.60873 
     u2[5]     u2[50]     u2[51]     u2[52]     u2[53]     u2[54]     u2[55] 
6436.14578  897.41300 1528.24752 1010.31710  849.60654 1388.18593 9301.70950 
    u2[56]     u2[57]     u2[58]     u2[59]      u2[6]     u2[60]     u2[61] 
 360.20266 4082.99501  188.33513 4203.55514  192.78734 3726.57182  973.32632 
    u2[62]     u2[63]     u2[64]     u2[65]     u2[66]     u2[67]     u2[68] 
1451.92143 1870.22691  552.81746  310.15170  369.96647  351.50539  418.99455 
    u2[69]      u2[7]     u2[70]     u2[71]     u2[72]     u2[73]     u2[74] 
2288.28297  968.29322  301.61204 1327.56989  242.84213  277.14050 1584.73031 
    u2[75]     u2[76]     u2[77]     u2[78]     u2[79]      u2[8]     u2[80] 
 465.43195 5704.07933  543.85826 1664.85248  379.22017  580.24348 5875.07576 
    u2[81]     u2[82]     u2[83]     u2[84]     u2[85]     u2[86]     u2[87] 
3924.56637  171.76755 4223.23294  363.46045 1696.84306  705.25836  203.24934 
    u2[88]     u2[89]      u2[9]     u2[90]     u2[91]     u2[92]     u2[93] 
7269.03605 3128.14251  352.83712  467.49242 1073.89656 6026.77178  469.09984 
    u2[94]     u2[95]     u2[96]     u2[97]     u2[98]     u2[99]      v2[1] 
 925.43356 6487.10903  436.87784 8818.57699 2174.93149  224.88463 4180.94357 
    v2[10]    v2[100]    v2[101]    v2[102]    v2[103]    v2[104]    v2[105] 
5000.00000 4421.41246 3658.93176 1612.23745 2818.08871 3505.85323 4100.22054 
   v2[106]    v2[107]    v2[108]    v2[109]     v2[11]    v2[110]     v2[12] 
3580.96089 5000.00000 4590.49974 4741.43941 4557.11808 5000.00000 3185.69026 
    v2[13]     v2[14]     v2[15]     v2[16]     v2[17]     v2[18]     v2[19] 
5000.00000 4671.00203 2683.39879 2110.89789 3927.79957 3715.09757 4838.89712 
     v2[2]     v2[20]     v2[21]     v2[22]     v2[23]     v2[24]     v2[25] 
1788.83078 4419.17640 3819.47534 1115.19986 2879.64000 3918.45755 4776.07268 
    v2[26]     v2[27]     v2[28]     v2[29]      v2[3]     v2[30]     v2[31] 
5000.00000 1787.71214 5000.00000 5000.00000 2653.42841 3420.66993 4462.32741 
    v2[32]     v2[33]     v2[34]     v2[35]     v2[36]     v2[37]     v2[38] 
5282.77521 5000.00000 5000.00000 5000.00000 4743.08818 3907.79325 5000.00000 
    v2[39]      v2[4]     v2[40]     v2[41]     v2[42]     v2[43]     v2[44] 
5000.00000 4711.25589 4664.58959 2751.81829 2903.24993 5000.00000 1850.79477 
    v2[45]     v2[46]     v2[47]     v2[48]     v2[49]      v2[5]     v2[50] 
2567.53308 4706.07740 3423.47130 3321.91732 4592.51016 5000.00000 3999.40176 
    v2[51]     v2[52]     v2[53]     v2[54]     v2[55]     v2[56]     v2[57] 
4718.48798 3984.71508 4392.74763 4590.56161 5000.00000 3105.69997 4403.62841 
    v2[58]     v2[59]      v2[6]     v2[60]     v2[61]     v2[62]     v2[63] 
2513.72145 4784.33694 1683.59016 5000.00000 5000.00000 4567.17960 5000.00000 
    v2[64]     v2[65]     v2[66]     v2[67]     v2[68]     v2[69]      v2[7] 
4494.08940 2987.44399 3814.09233 2646.14549 3130.11269 5000.00000 4574.16049 
    v2[70]     v2[71]     v2[72]     v2[73]     v2[74]     v2[75]     v2[76] 
2189.33088 4238.00260 2284.35721 2635.25774 5000.00000 3215.57487 5152.82076 
    v2[77]     v2[78]     v2[79]      v2[8]     v2[80]     v2[81]     v2[82] 
4050.10302 3972.30860 3186.92519 3537.13958 5000.00000 5000.00000 1247.27696 
    v2[83]     v2[84]     v2[85]     v2[86]     v2[87]     v2[88]     v2[89] 
4559.73674 2359.20146 5000.00000 4509.27581 1863.57034 5000.00000 5000.00000 
     v2[9]     v2[90]     v2[91]     v2[92]     v2[93]     v2[94]     v2[95] 
2043.45042 2980.62184 5000.00000 5000.00000 3095.52898 3413.04487 4925.63609 
    v2[96]     v2[97]     v2[98]     v2[99] 
2545.27123 5000.00000 4854.94762 2292.24896 
> sixway(mymodel[, "sigma2.u2", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 250)
> sixway(mymodel[, "sigma2.v2", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 100)
> 
> # 24.6 Parameter expansion and random slopes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
> 
> ## Read tutorial data
> data(tutorial, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 + standlrt | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9145.871584
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9132.292720
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9116.964735
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9109.819138
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9142.444254
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9126.443022
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9158.382599
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9130.050027
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9132.164613
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9095.782185

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9141.251505
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9092.112338
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9114.453660
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.042851
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.630195
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.189612
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.760133
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9095.484118
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.696741
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9097.278119
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9091.835441
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9147.067486
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9115.848152
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9136.364432
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.999236
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.626814
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9124.942111
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9123.715072
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9139.162535
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9093.087478
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9103.780217
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.714840
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.856745
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.224610
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9136.726333
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9115.553162
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.082659
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.260473
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9113.023248
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.720286
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.243265
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.524919
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.163849
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9100.141526
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.566069
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.956343
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9131.034399
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.937589
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9094.252149
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.545274
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9099.416940
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9132.162100
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.159139
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9110.982424
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.731006
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.335122
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.832789
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9115.598454
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.806787
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.961083
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9094.496029
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9114.022952
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.506561
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9108.681836
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9110.341205
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9131.645275
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9143.193063
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9096.461754
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9142.098601
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9090.543006
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9123.431925
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9100.574500
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.650108
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9131.254028
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.803281
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9137.320115
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9151.055699
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9113.381797
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9136.395805
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.182591
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9099.498807
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9094.669026
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9124.954760
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9113.843599
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.879346
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9138.609563
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.548693
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.254128
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.331443
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9094.789350
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.693654
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9101.392385
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9114.650394
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9113.173542
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9126.374967
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9142.771045
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9133.755790
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9146.895681
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.279064
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9126.639139
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.546091
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.121874
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9102.731900
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9101.131722
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9081.592796
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9107.770592
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.044185
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.474018
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.583370
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9132.471942
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9122.7
S.D.    =          16.894
S.E.M.  =         0.23892

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.96s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9122.672   9031.177   91.496     9214.168   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 + standlrt | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.01325     0.03984  -0.33       0.7395         -0.08901     0.07336   225 
standlrt     0.55687     0.02033  27.39   4.031e-165  ***     0.51599     0.59630   563 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                           Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept            0.09706     0.02004      0.06544     0.14260   3136 
cov_Intercept_standlrt   0.01955     0.00737      0.00647     0.03595   1644 
var_standlrt             0.01549     0.00484      0.00804     0.02681    930 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.55432     0.01247      0.53027     0.57958   4575 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## Parameter expansion at level 2
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 + standlrt | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 1))), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9147.008893
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9148.850911
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9125.133474
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9082.235953
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9152.706603
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9138.864345
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9109.716092
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9109.694649
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9126.287108
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9096.446875

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9139.872460
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9115.536485
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9089.726837
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9154.207306
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.139347
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.052121
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.754286
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.666629
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.994529
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9115.600251
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.145459
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9155.384993
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9100.172885
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.334075
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.582579
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9103.158665
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9102.801058
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9101.937498
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.755860
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9086.596856
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9100.971798
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.328879
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9137.838245
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9108.338198
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.775529
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.873916
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9166.896701
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9100.849672
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.751616
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9131.147603
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.867640
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9107.152007
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9114.406869
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.453089
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9105.875685
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9108.430805
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9142.317555
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.681645
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9126.510701
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.897070
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.032127
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9143.392365
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9093.277354
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9158.483522
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9142.608735
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.102558
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9152.587098
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9123.543286
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9098.497785
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9098.451150
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.936169
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9103.728637
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.498534
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9108.858998
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9148.474021
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.045016
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.838525
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9102.463625
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.481980
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.964210
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.601333
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.364300
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9159.052214
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.541243
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.346967
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9103.845979
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9132.310355
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.898312
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9110.951372
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.195173
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.150343
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9133.169237
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.593537
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9133.347336
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9163.456293
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9102.303414
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.626831
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9107.320401
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.831367
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9124.803502
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9111.531917
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.113164
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.140641
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9139.670772
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9134.324141
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.457789
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.463792
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9162.645007
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9107.964059
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.495469
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9095.134340
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9137.089352
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9115.208711
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9123.612236
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9093.833114
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.592306
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9109.241254
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.372974
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.789952
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.320624
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9122.1
S.D.    =          16.524
S.E.M.  =         0.23368

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 2.19s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9122.064   9029.644   92.420     9214.485   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 + standlrt | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.01496     0.04078  -0.37       0.7138         -0.09637     0.06311   206 
standlrt     0.55582     0.01987  27.97   3.576e-172  ***     0.51547     0.59395   731 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                           Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept            0.09779     0.02039      0.06508     0.14332   3241 
cov_Intercept_standlrt   0.01914     0.00740      0.00604     0.03533   1824 
var_standlrt             0.01583     0.00488      0.00792     0.02703   1005 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.55399     0.01240      0.53003     0.57846   4766 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .399
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ############################################################################
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  18.10   20.06  887.20