R version 3.6.3 (2020-02-29) -- "Holding the Windsock" Copyright (C) 2020 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit) R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. Natural language support but running in an English locale R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > ############################################################################ > # MLwiN MCMC Manual > # > # 5 Prior Distributions, Starting Values and Random Number Seeds . . . .61 > # > # Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for > # Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol. > ############################################################################ > # R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN > # > # Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J. > # Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012 > # http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/ > ############################################################################ > > # 5.1 Prior distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 > > # 5.2 Uniform on variance scale priors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61 > > library(R2MLwiN) R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1) To cite R2MLwiN in publications use: Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton, George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43. doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10 A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is @Article{, title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}}, author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne}, journal = {Journal of Statistical Software}, year = {2016}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {1--43}, doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10}, } The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/ To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="") > # MLwiN folder > mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path") > while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) { + cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n") + mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n") + mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE) + } > options(MLwiN_path = mlwin) > > # User's input if necessary > > ## Read tutorial data > data(tutorial, package = "R2MLwiN") > > ## IGLS > (mymodel1 <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), data = tutorial)) /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 65 2 62.44615 198 65 2 62.44615 198 Estimation algorithm: IGLS Elapsed time : 0.05s Number of obs: 4059 (from total 4059) The model converged after 4 iterations. Log likelihood: -4678.6 Deviance statistic: 9357.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student) Level 2: school Level 1: student --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Conf. Interval] Intercept 0.00239 0.04002 0.06 0.9524 -0.07605 0.08083 standlrt 0.56337 0.01247 45.19 0 *** 0.53894 0.58780 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. var_Intercept 0.09213 0.01815 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the student level: Coef. Std. Err. var_Intercept 0.56573 0.01266 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > ## Diffuse priors (Gamma priors) > (mymodel2 <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = tutorial)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9204.262556 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9225.063419 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9205.620423 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9207.286175 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9189.882541 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9213.131781 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9191.967839 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9200.072789 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9197.978878 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9206.312775 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9182.514808 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.799767 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.533264 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9235.302728 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.588497 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.798346 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.971258 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.471053 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.792403 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9185.644474 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.752807 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.223665 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.804872 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.519349 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.609771 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.416013 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.107554 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.303837 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.273065 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.690604 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.236489 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.185496 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.517749 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.032838 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.460499 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.333397 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.977623 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.427472 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.575111 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.428957 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.886427 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.521334 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.777166 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.900296 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.265053 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.987061 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.776243 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.497296 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.467108 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.146736 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.845807 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.944089 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.612843 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.265355 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.222358 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9250.643212 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.598687 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.421500 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9240.315838 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9235.012216 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.825586 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.910444 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.293627 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.222052 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.264188 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.039764 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9230.996469 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.580436 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.499799 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.292584 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.040587 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.604250 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.541549 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.256474 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.029403 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.699312 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.823399 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.867998 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.418322 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.509889 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.940598 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.426437 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.104187 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.433860 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.530610 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.678566 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.101902 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.943453 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9226.646620 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.272707 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9185.496662 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.693995 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.338782 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.098365 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.878156 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.471250 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.216161 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.835575 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.972779 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9223.102763 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.956845 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.960121 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.101999 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.476225 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.003009 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.582930 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.744286 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9228.521835 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.720494 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.075214 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9208.8 S.D. = 12.005 S.E.M. = 0.16978 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 65 2 62.44615 198 65 2 62.44615 198 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 1.38s Number of obs: 4059 (from total 4059) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 9208.817 9148.971 59.846 9268.664 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student) Level 2: school Level 1: student --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept 0.00133 0.04216 0.03 0.9748 -0.07762 0.08519 208 standlrt 0.56331 0.01254 44.93 0 *** 0.53892 0.58799 4017 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.09732 0.02049 0.06441 0.14454 2981 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the student level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.56634 0.01269 0.54175 0.59197 5000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > ## Diffuse priors (Uniform priors) > (mymodel3 <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(priorcode = 0)), + data = tutorial)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 1 1 1 1 0 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9203.880097 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9224.478962 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9205.312887 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9206.963247 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9189.724401 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9212.768554 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9191.719059 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9188.072375 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9197.953281 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9206.175150 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9182.124731 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.443529 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.532475 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9234.707813 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.422765 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.488882 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.843393 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.152119 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.421732 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.718767 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.629135 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.400311 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.994824 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.425361 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.371949 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.069061 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.870765 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.732554 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.694097 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.716927 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.956178 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.820121 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.368784 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.589778 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.065030 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.823031 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.125585 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.366683 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.472507 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.347192 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.452826 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.792923 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.446248 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.871286 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.682864 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.611737 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.540711 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.321676 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.287640 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.141384 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.972601 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.860771 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.003945 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.551085 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.386522 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.663414 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.522895 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.300972 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9239.898712 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9234.459056 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.692985 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.597032 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.961669 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.467069 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.460994 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.860195 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9230.891440 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.262270 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.264026 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.951621 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.547355 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.374667 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.948088 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.709129 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.013286 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.439819 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.686353 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.616535 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.743825 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.003033 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.417683 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.563572 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.014766 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.021691 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.346915 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.093132 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.918017 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.688759 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9226.609978 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.899351 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9185.207949 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.136381 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.002859 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.020461 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.816214 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.426949 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.217127 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.536718 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.620444 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9222.990662 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.665530 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.894278 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.959295 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.294227 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.075161 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.589035 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.473462 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9228.275195 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.357360 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.903174 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9208.5 S.D. = 11.876 S.E.M. = 0.16795 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 65 2 62.44615 198 65 2 62.44615 198 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 1.41s Number of obs: 4059 (from total 4059) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 9208.478 9148.473 60.005 9268.483 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student) Level 2: school Level 1: student --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept -0.00045 0.04218 -0.01 0.9915 -0.07876 0.08178 208 standlrt 0.56305 0.01251 45.00 0 *** 0.53878 0.58747 4029 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.10131 0.02155 0.06671 0.15095 3027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the student level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.56652 0.01278 0.54197 0.59208 5000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > if (!require(texreg)) { + warning("texreg package required to use screenreg() function") + } else { + screenreg(list(mymodel1, mymodel2, mymodel3), custom.model.names=c("IGLS", "Gibbs1", "Gibbs2"), groups = list("Fixed Part" = 1:2, "Level-2" = 3:3, "Level-1" = 4:4), + stars = numeric(0), include.nobs=FALSE, include.loglik=FALSE, include.deviance=FALSE, include.dbar=FALSE, include.dthetabar=FALSE, include.pd=FALSE, include.dic=FALSE) + } Loading required package: texreg Version: 1.36.23 Date: 2017-03-03 Author: Philip Leifeld (University of Glasgow) Please cite the JSS article in your publications -- see citation("texreg"). =========================================================== IGLS Gibbs1 Gibbs2 ----------------------------------------------------------- Fixed Part FP_Intercept 0.00 0.00 -0.00 (0.04) [-0.08; 0.09] [-0.08; 0.08] FP_standlrt 0.56 0.56 * 0.56 * (0.01) [ 0.54; 0.59] [ 0.54; 0.59] Level-2 RP2_var_Intercept 0.09 0.10 * 0.10 * (0.02) [ 0.06; 0.14] [ 0.07; 0.15] Level-1 RP1_var_Intercept 0.57 0.57 * 0.57 * (0.01) [ 0.54; 0.59] [ 0.54; 0.59] =========================================================== * 0 outside the confidence interval > rm(list = c("mymodel1", "mymodel2", "mymodel3")) > > # 5.3 Using informative priors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62 > > ## Informative normal prior for beta_1 Fit the model > (mymodel4 <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(priorParam = list(fixe = list(standlrt = c(1, + 0.01))))), data = tutorial)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] c1092 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9682.684147 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9770.203326 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9713.605248 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9683.631915 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9658.390924 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9703.068252 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9644.020802 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9726.505804 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9681.095633 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9724.852473 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9672.381913 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9771.954459 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9667.879491 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9728.703298 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9681.528451 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9699.444330 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9726.835626 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9663.722899 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9713.536669 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9614.912171 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9714.038132 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9700.621304 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9690.469476 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9706.549115 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9668.673106 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9643.803002 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9711.926557 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9671.038245 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9687.994499 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9664.341397 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9738.892965 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9679.468598 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9699.125945 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9699.813214 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9682.990718 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9712.191024 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9690.376509 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9732.831510 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9692.596910 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9668.619885 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9710.084186 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9700.344553 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9724.092101 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9687.518110 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9733.836252 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9652.481949 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9716.538827 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9704.514623 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9718.870507 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9647.738839 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9719.416197 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9695.470163 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9687.937323 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9720.193878 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9679.480290 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9740.398352 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9719.709346 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9683.771214 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9698.568236 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9695.215669 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9654.633967 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9670.252482 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9675.344627 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9728.916599 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9677.236481 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9690.547001 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9746.019230 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9758.780022 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9682.852857 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9663.256261 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9683.356049 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9685.610689 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9707.984415 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9715.579509 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9664.722308 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9666.985308 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9679.904101 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9673.406794 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9660.291642 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9719.544292 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9665.849617 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9733.279756 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9671.804884 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9660.507060 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9691.945214 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9716.140102 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9687.752458 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9677.359373 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9733.644340 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9702.649248 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9694.972483 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9677.078422 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9682.189834 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9710.928716 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9683.956796 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9707.307309 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9718.474245 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9709.972384 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9670.923995 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9693.547856 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9670.707414 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9713.442389 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9698.819118 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9707.214805 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9699.976032 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9667.201196 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9726.342980 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9732.597144 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9681.338359 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9708.538330 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9693.6 S.D. = 29.650 S.E.M. = 0.41931 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 65 2 62.44615 198 65 2 62.44615 198 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 1.45s Number of obs: 4059 (from total 4059) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 9693.644 9636.539 57.104 9750.748 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student) Level 2: school Level 1: student --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept 0.00971 0.03878 0.25 0.8023 -0.06478 0.08683 282 standlrt 0.84147 0.00835 100.84 0 *** 0.82528 0.85761 3822 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.07958 0.01747 0.05128 0.12010 2629 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the student level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.63821 0.01488 0.60903 0.66849 4154 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > sixway(mymodel4@chains[, "FP_standlrt", drop = FALSE], "beta_1") > > ## Informative normal prior for beta_1 > (mymodel5 <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(priorParam = list(fixe = list(standlrt = c(1, + 0.1))))), data = tutorial)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] c1092 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9205.231703 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9227.894842 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9207.159191 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9207.694709 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9189.791481 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9213.757581 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9191.108349 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9202.022726 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9198.418063 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9208.306765 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9183.049356 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9227.809917 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.359004 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9237.080959 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.142392 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.869286 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.580033 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.702583 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.624875 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9184.198980 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.593639 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.226133 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.824219 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.035834 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9190.482488 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.270694 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.511722 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.198656 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.219094 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.525783 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.509955 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.084981 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.336104 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.389595 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.829214 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.922358 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.359383 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.096951 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.307326 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.103464 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.313762 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.905270 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.532787 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.671887 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.748402 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.223472 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.417102 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.534247 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.923921 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.224913 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.967493 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.585477 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.423211 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.947075 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.192426 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9252.568671 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.989819 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.890338 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9240.768352 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9234.862260 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.701127 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.869733 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.675272 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.556514 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.434153 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.471134 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9232.287663 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9227.443503 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.669392 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.982300 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.625733 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.234378 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.149078 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.769124 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.400836 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9187.128987 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.102162 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.918993 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.565104 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.208365 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.706251 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.796927 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.488498 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.826338 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.946875 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.330858 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.060278 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.475869 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9227.935767 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.346883 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9187.425933 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.740282 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.997296 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.775659 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.551666 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.283472 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.994277 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.104625 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.865879 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9223.721822 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.893212 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.453764 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.226404 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.647037 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.329231 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9187.237379 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.862554 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9230.390473 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.737891 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.828400 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9209.5 S.D. = 12.123 S.E.M. = 0.17145 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 65 2 62.44615 198 65 2 62.44615 198 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 1.41s Number of obs: 4059 (from total 4059) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 9209.451 9149.657 59.795 9269.246 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student) Level 2: school Level 1: student --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept 0.00154 0.04204 0.04 0.9709 -0.07730 0.08518 209 standlrt 0.57002 0.01244 45.81 0 *** 0.54580 0.59455 4024 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.09672 0.02038 0.06404 0.14375 2974 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the student level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.56643 0.01269 0.54179 0.59203 5000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > sixway(mymodel5@chains[, "FP_standlrt", drop = FALSE], "beta_1") > > # 5.4 Specifying an informative prior for a random parameter . . . . . . .65 > > ## Specifies an informative prior for sigma2u > (mymodel6 <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(priorParam = list(rp2 = list(estimate = 0.2, + size = 100)))), data = tutorial)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] c1092 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9199.044468 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9202.586159 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9199.123105 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9197.006136 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9204.337101 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9222.059634 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9200.492856 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9198.273131 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9194.773295 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9209.054350 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.852017 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9183.897666 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.074081 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.673387 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.840657 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.541868 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.805328 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.435562 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9187.214879 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.420240 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.669893 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.527965 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.512745 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.087127 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.328136 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.584654 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.063746 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.110527 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.210071 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.103978 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9190.122807 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.941295 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.444709 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.978917 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.048578 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.183419 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.367611 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.219558 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.419736 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.680532 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.914614 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.332463 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.190376 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.163761 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.498464 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.343802 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9253.717525 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9221.486224 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9222.021625 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.517367 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.761754 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.535462 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.056445 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.429008 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.548636 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9221.130572 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.566958 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.316487 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.495041 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9182.682960 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9222.064216 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9234.777145 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.158484 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.289305 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.820186 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.393840 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9187.759350 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9235.278020 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.145094 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.664973 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.504870 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.048443 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.313113 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9190.571368 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.601959 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.144576 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.553495 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.001012 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.965596 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.521671 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.721752 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.354060 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.117923 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.935940 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.171645 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.218038 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.040846 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.864658 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.141230 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9182.169812 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.081536 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.884507 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.574256 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.610141 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.154680 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.178945 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.221985 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.695159 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9232.099642 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.535657 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.473300 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.681361 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.977314 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.400363 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.423637 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.712134 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.314127 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.938400 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.045955 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.694031 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9206.4 S.D. = 11.359 S.E.M. = 0.16064 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 65 2 62.44615 198 65 2 62.44615 198 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 1.37s Number of obs: 4059 (from total 4059) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 9206.440 9143.889 62.550 9268.990 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student) Level 2: school Level 1: student --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept -0.00217 0.04845 -0.04 0.9644 -0.09628 0.09464 143 standlrt 0.56176 0.01253 44.85 0 *** 0.53727 0.58635 4366 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.16267 0.01890 0.13029 0.20384 4477 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the student level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.56565 0.01270 0.54071 0.59074 4968 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > sixway(mymodel6@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma^2_u0") > > # 5.5 Changing the random number seed and the parameter starting values .66 > > ## Set starting values for random and fixed parameter estimates > FP.b <- c(-2, 5) > names(FP.b) <- c("FP_Intercept", "FP_standlrt") > RP.b <- c(2, 4) > names(RP.b) <- c("RP2_var_Intercept", "RP1_var_Intercept") > startval <- list(FP.b = FP.b, RP.b = RP.b) > > (mymodel7 <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(burnin = 0, + iterations = 500), startval = startval), data = tutorial)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved JOIN -2 5 '_FP_b' JOIN 2 4 '_RP_b' ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 0 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 1 1 1 1 1 1 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 500 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 500, Stored update 50 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9213.968484 Actual update 100 of 500, Stored update 100 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9206.594037 Actual update 150 of 500, Stored update 150 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9203.544698 Actual update 200 of 500, Stored update 200 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9216.645971 Actual update 250 of 500, Stored update 250 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9190.807884 Actual update 300 of 500, Stored update 300 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9195.714042 Actual update 350 of 500, Stored update 350 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9218.908082 Actual update 400 of 500, Stored update 400 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9207.491144 Actual update 450 of 500, Stored update 450 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9219.269751 Actual update 500 of 500, Stored update 500 of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9206.766058 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 500 Average = 9234.8 S.D. = 487.91 S.E.M. = 21.820 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 65 2 62.44615 198 65 2 62.44615 198 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 0.2s Number of obs: 4059 (from total 4059) Number of iter.: 500 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 0 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 9234.783 9157.756 77.028 9311.811 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student) Level 2: school Level 1: student --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept -0.37521 0.58014 -0.65 0.5178 -1.68959 0.07891 2 standlrt 0.56308 0.02472 22.77 8.152e-115 *** 0.53782 0.58827 414 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.61008 0.97112 0.06953 3.17670 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the student level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.60464 0.78712 0.54344 0.59166 405 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > rm(list = c("mymodel4", "mymodel5", "mymodel6", "mymodel7")) > > ## Use different seeds > (mymodel8 <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(nchains=4, seed = 1:4)), + data = tutorial)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... starting worker pid=7916 on localhost:11207 at 14:48:10.397 starting worker pid=17140 on localhost:11207 at 14:48:10.632 starting worker pid=16968 on localhost:11207 at 14:48:10.864 starting worker pid=15468 on localhost:11207 at 14:48:11.092 Loading required package: R2MLwiN Loading required package: R2MLwiN Loading required package: R2MLwiN Loading required package: R2MLwiN R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1) R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1) R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1) R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1) To cite R2MLwiN in publications use: Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton, George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43. doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10 A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is @Article{, title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}}, author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne}, journal = {Journal of Statistical Software}, year = {2016}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {1--43}, doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10}, } To cite R2MLwiN in publications use: Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton, George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43. doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10 A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is @Article{, title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}}, author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne}, journal = {Journal of Statistical Software}, year = {2016}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {1--43}, doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10}, } The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/ The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/ To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="") To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="") loaded R2MLwiN and set parent environment loaded R2MLwiN and set parent environment To cite R2MLwiN in publications use: Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton, George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43. doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10 A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is @Article{, title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}}, author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne}, journal = {Journal of Statistical Software}, year = {2016}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {1--43}, doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10}, } The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/ To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="") loaded R2MLwiN and set parent environment To cite R2MLwiN in publications use: Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton, George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43. doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10 A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is @Article{, title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}}, author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne}, journal = {Journal of Statistical Software}, year = {2016}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {1--43}, doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10}, } The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/ To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="") loaded R2MLwiN and set parent environment /nogui option ignored /nogui option ignored /nogui option ignored /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 ECHO 0 ECHO 0 ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9200.857718 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9204.262556 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9200.886232 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9213.513267 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9208.744954 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9225.063419 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9193.149842 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9217.759086 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9211.543826 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9205.620423 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9199.032849 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9212.258681 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9210.233343 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9207.286175 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9191.463650 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9218.439234 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9209.755875 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9199.193769 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9215.025615 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9189.882541 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9209.405506 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9199.497302 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9204.873623 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9213.131781 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9207.516932 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9206.662309 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9223.805833 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9191.967839 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9206.474823 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9203.644987 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9200.072789 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9218.771957 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9211.383556 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9223.679752 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9197.978878 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9211.778136 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 9212.829029 -2 * Loglike = 9215.728395 -2 * Loglike = 9206.312775 -2 * Loglike = 9222.739854 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9222.714392 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9223.926450 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.937960 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.150120 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.074719 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9182.514808 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.284978 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.358244 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.581489 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.799767 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.449411 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.342921 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9180.125841 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.533264 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.630759 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9235.302728 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.844021 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.816834 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.285720 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.588497 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.414479 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.233353 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.798346 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.612582 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.784058 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.971258 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.175033 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.977444 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.471053 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.881182 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.929784 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.621602 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.792403 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.408081 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.709931 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.181949 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9185.644474 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.592113 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.457951 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9183.436797 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.752807 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.741894 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.443133 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9222.588647 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.223665 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.634273 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9223.003437 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.166939 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.646109 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.804872 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.012337 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.452471 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.280523 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9247.011845 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.797982 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.519349 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.279985 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.130267 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.836431 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.609771 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.831757 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.168078 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.049258 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9230.011101 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.416013 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.522968 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.896921 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.117028 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.107554 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.103392 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.560236 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.303837 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.447993 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.363563 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.295848 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.273065 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9182.959075 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9243.247237 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.229798 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.690604 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.148436 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.309211 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.700947 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.236489 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.215119 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9190.189582 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.132534 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.185496 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.195111 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.517749 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.436363 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.530764 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9185.489639 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.032838 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9233.992811 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.488686 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.109012 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.460499 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.414411 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.874769 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.333397 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9222.286299 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.950984 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.130142 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.977623 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.725551 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.708310 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.408491 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.427472 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.461741 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.300848 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9229.024998 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.575111 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.291513 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9235.179683 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.428957 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.169398 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.886427 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.310857 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.760390 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.679383 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.521334 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.667785 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9231.971408 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.289667 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.777166 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.160968 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.561635 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.564265 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.900296 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.639642 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.593014 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.265053 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.398498 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.168065 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.079450 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.987061 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.848725 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9231.035409 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.776243 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.996041 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9223.902203 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.497296 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.853696 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9227.615035 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.734780 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.467108 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.157688 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.043118 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.146736 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.843382 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9228.452633 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.845807 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.840165 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.731700 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.413377 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.944089 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.079160 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.141768 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.339756 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.612843 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.725150 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.265355 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.170693 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.657775 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.927703 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.222358 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.362605 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9190.288417 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.235568 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9250.643212 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9234.480822 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.970911 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9184.204112 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.598687 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.041765 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.804868 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.629766 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.051097 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.421500 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.560512 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.137269 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.993010 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9240.315838 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.518252 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.780229 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.646866 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9235.012216 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.860810 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.170400 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9188.825586 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.330188 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.170832 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.910444 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9185.669435 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.336731 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.300471 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.293627 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9183.527334 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.446686 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.091987 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.222052 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.038928 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9190.272414 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.264188 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.207458 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.592409 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.000607 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.039764 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9185.871512 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.332937 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9230.996469 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.260434 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.802446 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.228240 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.580436 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9225.749535 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.481125 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9227.407272 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.499799 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.074385 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.417276 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.292584 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.322821 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9224.824772 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9222.397707 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.040587 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.409112 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.107679 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.844266 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.604250 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.786650 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.541549 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.372959 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.492175 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.780689 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.256474 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.668422 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.847034 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.029403 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.311008 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9226.601303 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.633838 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.699312 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.369216 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.047690 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9237.092990 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.823399 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.526839 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.322788 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.574173 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.867998 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.249267 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.610475 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.824265 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.418322 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.922094 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.408917 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.346849 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.509889 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.535772 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.847330 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9190.612603 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.940598 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.436647 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.840936 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.803966 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.426437 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9223.164200 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.272695 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.520095 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.104187 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.934133 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9226.040927 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9222.544651 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.433860 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9180.481230 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.993547 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.530610 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.507688 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9223.279807 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.787604 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.678566 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.764032 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.384544 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.738394 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.101902 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.502408 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.968299 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.999235 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.943453 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.300603 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.842818 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9226.646620 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.382107 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.446564 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.860971 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.272707 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.897663 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.280534 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.834106 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9185.496662 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.251854 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.656363 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9220.375609 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.693995 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9227.643143 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.902164 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.338782 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.506577 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.927267 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.144986 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.098365 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9216.169062 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.334166 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.104267 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.878156 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.657233 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9198.851638 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.563062 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.471250 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9204.542260 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.326672 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.216161 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.092323 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.373222 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.835575 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.748810 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.755682 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.952515 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.972779 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.483088 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9213.353476 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.866398 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9223.102763 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.333340 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.745269 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.855885 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.956845 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.089570 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.744541 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.960121 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.658172 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.458857 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.727060 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.565406 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.101999 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.470550 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9227.290774 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.722405 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.476225 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9203.992914 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9205.027201 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.003009 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.802231 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9199.836832 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9186.582930 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9218.668279 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9193.596563 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.834664 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.744286 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9197.042838 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9187.556166 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9228.521835 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.722629 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9202.787832 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9215.626953 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.720494 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.395154 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9219.971391 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9227.433589 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.187656 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.511231 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9211.386676 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.075214 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9208.8 S.D. = 12.005 S.E.M. = 0.16978 ECHO 0 Execution completed -2 * Loglike = 9205.910097 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9208.985508 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9212.473603 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9207.101920 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9192.019389 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9195.186445 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9221.931262 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9217.988271 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9191.814120 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9214.118771 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.570078 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9206.951873 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9210.114854 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9189.689582 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.769608 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.363413 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.781611 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.592203 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9200.406648 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9196.746611 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9194.579919 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9208.9 S.D. = 11.901 S.E.M. = 0.16831 ECHO 0 Execution completed -2 * Loglike = 9219.131975 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9208.9 S.D. = 11.877 S.E.M. = 0.16796 ECHO 0 Execution completed -2 * Loglike = 9202.509832 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9209.276232 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 9201.709215 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 9209.1 S.D. = 11.855 S.E.M. = 0.16766 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 65 2 62.44615 198 65 2 62.44615 198 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 6.31s Number of obs: 4059 (from total 4059) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 4 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 9208.923 9149.124 59.799 9268.721 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student) Level 2: school Level 1: student --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept 0.00409 0.04249 0.10 0.9234 -0.07742 0.08910 808 standlrt 0.56329 0.01247 45.17 0 *** 0.53913 0.58789 15909 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.09694 0.02015 0.06444 0.14294 11905 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the student level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 0.56617 0.01268 0.54174 0.59196 20092 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > ctable <- round(as.data.frame(lapply(mymodel8@chains[, c(names(mymodel8@FP), names(mymodel8@RP))], colMeans)), 3) > colnames(ctable) <- c("Seed1", "Seed2", "Seed3", "Seed4") > print(ctable) Seed1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 FP_Intercept 0.001 0.004 0.003 0.008 FP_standlrt 0.563 0.563 0.563 0.563 RP2_var_Intercept 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 RP1_var_Intercept 0.566 0.566 0.566 0.566 > rm(list = "mymodel8") > > # 5.6 Improving the speed of MCMC Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69 > > # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 > > > > > > ############################################################################ > > proc.time() user system elapsed 5.85 0.89 22.12