R version 4.4.1 (2024-06-14 ucrt) -- "Race for Your Life"
Copyright (C) 2024 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 24  Parameter expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .381
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> # 24.1 What is Parameter Expansion? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .381
> 
> # 24.2 The tutorial example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .383
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2024 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.11/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> ## Read tutorial data
> data(tutorial, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9206.193266
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9216.262176
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9241.057582
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9214.675885
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9198.255145
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9227.186873
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9222.091977
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9214.630238
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9216.522216
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9201.148603

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.190791
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.377297
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.886882
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.385976
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9238.483062
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.621742
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.716499
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.158850
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.248427
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.495732
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.683303
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.166694
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9237.981658
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.878383
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.726654
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.104227
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.156460
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.279082
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.816267
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.178731
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.163387
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.308723
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.214048
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.278770
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.819913
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.939811
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.651680
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.606479
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.925780
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.422125
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.244183
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.907738
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.883902
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.140517
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.397609
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.941176
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.158993
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.821254
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.099646
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.356036
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.820798
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.889068
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.485567
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9239.773102
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.613020
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.832435
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.787494
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.635017
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.243753
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.686027
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.435702
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.862131
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.440604
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.917390
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.824248
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9222.623770
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.897380
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.383677
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.390320
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.286579
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.534200
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.872396
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.935844
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.578259
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.257434
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.815469
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.291358
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.578031
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.657834
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.144417
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.997575
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.109666
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.063094
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.746381
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.159422
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.966122
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9190.735716
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.324394
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.512200
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.017143
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.234780
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.765768
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.968089
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9229.231239
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.636298
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.507235
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.445006
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9231.667774
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.470719
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.425209
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.996959
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.405793
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.746288
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.656436
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.976127
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.846042
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.637551
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.146880
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.841845
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.109834
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9209.1
S.D.    =          11.916
S.E.M.  =         0.16852

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.45s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9209.078   9149.069   60.010     9269.088   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00318     0.04420   0.07     0.9427         -0.08330     0.09189    223 
standlrt    0.56322     0.01258  44.77          0  ***     0.53844     0.58780   3821 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.09742     0.01988      0.06472     0.14144   3126 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56617     0.01249      0.54212     0.59090   4751 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> summary(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     0.0974188      0.0198774      0.0002811      0.0003555 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

   2.5%     25%     50%     75%   97.5% 
0.06472 0.08347 0.09553 0.10888 0.14144 

> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u2")
> 
> ## Parameter expansion at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 
+   1))), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9205.856027
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9212.564937
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9211.182594
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9209.418390
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9192.735832
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9223.100952
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9210.844651
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9214.666029
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9209.842881
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9196.648574

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.802116
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.496143
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.753366
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.209785
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.776034
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.115858
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.234069
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.191249
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9222.020796
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.722910
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9233.721095
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.760057
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.078964
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9196.183784
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.191785
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.002583
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.036848
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.645845
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9229.904288
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.451776
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.704789
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.320922
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.589647
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.947363
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.928196
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.602882
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.912274
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.074463
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9196.930446
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.823781
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.887835
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.656205
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9190.146048
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.689401
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.510984
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.402758
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.853851
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.735719
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.608674
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.490226
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.711835
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.905183
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.789598
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9223.629472
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9189.489025
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.188139
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.406484
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.577328
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.648532
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.028386
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.417238
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.749668
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9236.641270
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.020069
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.467182
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9235.929496
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.380827
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9196.668801
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.652958
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.660511
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.328967
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.397361
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.733334
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.152144
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.792960
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.124129
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9229.407816
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9220.429778
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.937856
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.753644
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.193803
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.161154
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.422127
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.052187
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.212753
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.794477
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.607153
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.626652
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9242.215426
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.620656
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.909667
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.645556
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9196.109555
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.516413
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.454157
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9223.780673
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.894016
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9230.281191
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.333046
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.240822
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.163303
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.024893
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.824780
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.913946
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.026276
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.843382
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.742501
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.204577
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9230.273289
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.555280
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9209.1
S.D.    =          11.812
S.E.M.  =         0.16705

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.7s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9209.051   9148.854   60.197     9269.248   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00308     0.04233   0.07      0.942         -0.07832     0.08702    204 
standlrt    0.56307     0.01275  44.16          0  ***     0.53789     0.58738   4053 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.09980     0.02058      0.06706     0.14580   2582 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56646     0.01259      0.54214     0.59202   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 24.3 Binary responses - Voting example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386
> 
> 
> ## Read bes83 data
> data(bes83, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | area), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bes83))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 879.790947
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 882.146982
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 885.737538
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 879.064325
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.693943
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 878.694250
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 881.610352
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 876.518389
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 873.342851
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 848.480244
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 849.057237
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 845.303298
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 840.088815
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.428522
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 850.446876
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.473997
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 878.948727
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 892.166502
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 886.915389
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 858.999885
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 887.636462
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 879.387476
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 880.269962
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 879.922999
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 881.853099
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.164339
Adapting for 2700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 878.890026
Adapting for 2800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 859.510364
Adapting for 2900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 874.423396
Adapting for 3000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.365128
Adapting for 3100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 873.505696
Adapting for 3200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 873.081790
Adapting for 3300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 855.026766
Adapting for 3400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 874.552380
Adapting for 3500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 874.442259
Adapting for 3600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 844.408723
Adapting finished and took 3700 iterations
Adapting took 3700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 888.275902
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 873.085712
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 869.957398
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 869.101914
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 844.830185
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 858.536981
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 874.305490
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 873.350424
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 872.644611
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 880.750571

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.606505
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.191379
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.729344
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.771105
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.325446
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 893.646399
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 889.407123
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 892.844984
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 881.993058
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.703320
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.184930
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.666854
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.519821
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.274526
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 885.446978
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.784243
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.775954
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.460264
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.514593
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.852092
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.477771
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.841636
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.827374
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.923811
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.219150
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.171162
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.803032
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.828571
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.631638
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.284738
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.457906
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.629308
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.959314
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.985489
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.137704
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.005181
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.073160
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.969177
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.612202
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.663689
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 842.952004
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.482835
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.912195
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.383827
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.609393
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.716032
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.761951
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.504368
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 864.903621
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.153431
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.387227
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.307467
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.004041
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 866.567847
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.120056
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.062881
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.369012
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.925223
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.781052
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 888.021193
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.555723
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.724176
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.129434
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.360388
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 831.911116
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 830.794343
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.801718
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.783761
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 891.455547
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.200312
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.758787
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.156291
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.966669
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.112375
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 871.873318
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.645329
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.926636
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.828598
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 843.637851
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.888624
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 842.299226
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.913751
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 858.048474
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.715126
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.466169
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.721162
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.461147
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.948220
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.111142
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.017197
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 880.272183
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.366722
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.880305
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.638214
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.782578
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.047089
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.808708
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.906533
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.530584
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.910503
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          867.39
S.D.    =          13.001
S.E.M.  =         0.18386

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
       N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
area 110   1 7.272727  16        110            1      7.272727           16
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.01s 
Number of obs:  800 (from total 800)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
867.395    845.738    21.657     889.052    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | 
    area)
Level 2: area     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.36547     0.09432  -3.87   0.0001068  ***    -0.54580    -0.18137   677 
defence      0.09203     0.01850   4.97   6.581e-07  ***     0.05552     0.12855   901 
unemp        0.06963     0.01376   5.06   4.208e-07  ***     0.04340     0.09747   953 
taxes        0.04641     0.01969   2.36     0.01844  *       0.00645     0.08374   945 
privat       0.14290     0.01842   7.76   8.664e-15  ***     0.10606     0.17894   907 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.14285     0.11590      0.00429     0.43386    36 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 500, "sigma2u0")
> 
> ## Parameter expansion at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | area), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 1))), data = bes83))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.712456
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 887.477710
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.070210
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 885.512627
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 864.146247
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.357511
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 884.059373
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 889.677056
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.147365
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.345291
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 864.704075
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 858.310065
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 858.475453
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 856.547851
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 875.858996
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 851.343774
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.107343
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.728046
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 859.625748
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.708464
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 857.461994
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 832.503252
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 864.626061
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 872.089223
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 843.844109
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 876.588695
Adapting for 2700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 875.031816
Adapting for 2800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.098958
Adapting for 2900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 845.908937
Adapting for 3000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 882.915927
Adapting for 3100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 875.585337
Adapting for 3200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 883.281626
Adapting for 3300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 850.769378
Adapting for 3400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 831.339683
Adapting for 3500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 854.575084
Adapting for 3600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 856.891068
Adapting for 3700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.069145
Adapting for 3800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 883.238537
Adapting for 3900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.434290
Adapting for 4000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 855.792032
Adapting for 4100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 872.373864
Adapting for 4200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.762402
Adapting for 4300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.327205
Adapting for 4400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 857.987592
Adapting for 4500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 882.080911
Adapting for 4600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 856.455616
Adapting for 4700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 843.517926
Adapting for 4800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 867.136154
Adapting for 4900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 867.114066
Adapting finished and took 5000 iterations
Adapting took 5000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 845.526331
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 879.210281
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 872.447827
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 852.097184
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 853.263653
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 875.026076
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 845.919057
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 843.252780
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 874.051878
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 855.738733

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 842.799369
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 835.659099
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.664262
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.019894
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.050033
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 840.912780
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.344243
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.724387
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.019534
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 843.924064
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 853.147298
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.167301
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.982687
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.082267
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.412560
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.885188
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.586571
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.595016
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.376079
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.195402
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.228484
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 843.270313
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 850.490926
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.844456
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 887.538500
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.756814
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.843339
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 880.121377
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.220138
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 871.313359
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.002619
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.193374
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.771211
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.535782
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.840977
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.847990
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.071404
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.781178
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.821995
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.849830
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 885.328362
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.839557
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.826015
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.299139
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.256894
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.323459
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 871.804018
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.903319
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 885.611430
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.697636
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.957832
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.783083
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 836.002366
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.727229
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.571369
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.608033
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.651732
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.565828
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 833.708054
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 853.982864
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.232442
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 864.463121
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.828636
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.548439
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 840.550477
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.321734
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.719952
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.005357
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 858.571619
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.981352
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.906319
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.916338
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.502354
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 839.131576
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.632998
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.961460
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.651217
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.420842
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.097392
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.008701
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 881.464455
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 877.509801
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 837.080708
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 858.573666
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.644005
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 879.460200
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.291311
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.108586
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.665817
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 861.855639
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.852536
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.474566
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.368512
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 866.283173
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.083925
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 883.487517
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 883.202124
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.994729
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.061995
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.554515
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          862.89
S.D.    =          13.974
S.E.M.  =         0.19762

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
       N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
area 110   1 7.272727  16        110            1      7.272727           16
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 5.45s 
Number of obs:  800 (from total 800)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
862.891    836.402    26.490     889.381    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | 
    area)
Level 2: area     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.37400     0.10206  -3.66   0.0002479  ***    -0.58528    -0.17359    542 
defence      0.09337     0.01913   4.88    1.05e-06  ***     0.05601     0.13192   1020 
unemp        0.07048     0.01400   5.03   4.791e-07  ***     0.04427     0.09888    885 
taxes        0.04529     0.01981   2.29     0.02225  *       0.00671     0.08528    848 
privat       0.14526     0.01844   7.88   3.398e-15  ***     0.10841     0.18066    847 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.19670     0.14271      0.00588     0.54753   172 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 500, "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 24.4 The choice of prior distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .390
> 
> ## Uniform on the variance scale priors+Parameter expansion at level 2
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | area), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(priorcode = 0), mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 1))), data = bes83))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 0 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 839.766204
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 883.915300
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 832.090867
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.985130
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 850.195571
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 864.943808
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 829.760919
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 859.516526
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 853.170864
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 850.094164
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 873.111888
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.374287
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 849.935362
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 869.256884
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 878.182034
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 858.564799
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 862.890939
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 839.871503
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 866.450471
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 859.759951
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 872.702894
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 874.304645
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 876.644720
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 872.008813
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 867.496081
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 841.073868
Adapting for 2700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 868.569273
Adapting for 2800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.428872
Adapting for 2900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.927915
Adapting for 3000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 868.447307
Adapting for 3100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 871.702510
Adapting for 3200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 857.563925
Adapting for 3300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.387921
Adapting for 3400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 845.223773
Adapting for 3500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 848.909299
Adapting for 3600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.057293
Adapting for 3700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 865.847228
Adapting for 3800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 856.746125
Adapting for 3900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 869.179769
Adapting for 4000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 849.098965
Adapting for 4100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 866.049735
Adapting for 4200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 834.932418
Adapting for 4300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 877.527155
Adapting for 4400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 870.638921
Adapting for 4500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 866.999207
Adapting for 4600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 885.432063
Adapting for 4700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 886.068768
Adapting for 4800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 860.322081
Adapting for 4900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 830.239305
Adapting finished and took 5000 iterations
Adapting took 5000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 879.360879
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 835.122860
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 859.098561
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 878.284121
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 880.872067
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 864.751033
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 867.832287
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 876.761506
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 864.046309
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 856.885600

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.586832
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.136271
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.839355
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.603975
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 880.963318
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.913088
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.909909
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 827.434198
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 871.703415
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.817594
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.042001
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 881.321230
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.491086
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.359313
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.503589
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.965770
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.718274
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 886.315974
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 892.431978
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 882.135645
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.687579
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.975742
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.053634
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 892.243875
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 887.652644
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 890.666868
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.064029
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 891.058123
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 887.523032
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.596151
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 881.600679
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 883.588502
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 867.523086
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.297377
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 872.882702
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 884.025732
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.968841
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.595792
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.030824
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.206117
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.752201
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.712085
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 869.831280
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.198648
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 848.101621
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 849.105092
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 850.918967
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 878.064139
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.920570
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 870.715426
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.384543
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.510564
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.681032
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.181855
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.480098
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.267553
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 862.490747
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.502078
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.344393
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 832.631094
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 826.822026
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.402631
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 844.006860
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 847.612943
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.195700
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.180315
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 850.353071
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.701186
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.081603
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.592415
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 839.095052
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 859.687823
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.662213
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 856.133189
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 863.923218
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 873.148614
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.833729
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 841.490716
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 840.538345
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 852.263079
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 875.209309
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.313930
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 861.431180
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 865.836294
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 876.555170
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 858.519147
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 846.486297
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 851.785823
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 854.705615
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 855.853604
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 842.188475
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 874.059260
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 861.640629
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 860.881661
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 832.757670
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 868.554316
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 857.266811
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 836.090250
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 843.631571
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 845.440909
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          862.64
S.D.    =          16.374
S.E.M.  =         0.23157

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
       N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
area 110   1 7.272727  16        110            1      7.272727           16
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 5.49s 
Number of obs:  800 (from total 800)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
862.642    835.217    27.425     890.068    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | 
    area)
Level 2: area     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.37759     0.09853  -3.83    0.000127  ***    -0.57738    -0.19958   152 
defence      0.09419     0.01886   4.99    5.94e-07  ***     0.05690     0.13130   522 
unemp        0.06984     0.01419   4.92   8.585e-07  ***     0.04320     0.09827   933 
taxes        0.04640     0.02037   2.28     0.02273  *       0.00740     0.08773   917 
privat       0.14626     0.01868   7.83   4.921e-15  ***     0.11013     0.18370   466 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.21512     0.17375      0.00014     0.64481    39 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 100, "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 24.5 Parameter expansion and WinBUGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391
> 
> mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(votecons) ~ 1 + defence + unemp + taxes + privat + (1 | area), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(priorcode = 0), mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 1)), show.file = TRUE), BUGO = c(version = 4, n.chains = 1, 
+   debug = FALSE, seed = 1, OpenBugs = TRUE), data = bes83)
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed

Loading required namespace: R2OpenBUGS
> 
> summary(mymodel)

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

                Mean       SD  Naive SE Time-series SE
beta[1]   -3.703e-01  0.09995 0.0014135      0.0021903
beta[2]    9.350e-02  0.01841 0.0002604      0.0003288
beta[3]    6.951e-02  0.01378 0.0001948      0.0002493
beta[4]    4.606e-02  0.01975 0.0002793      0.0003591
beta[5]    1.451e-01  0.01866 0.0002639      0.0003859
deviance   8.626e+02 14.61677 0.2067124      0.5318591
sigma2.u2  2.498e-02  0.07478 0.0010575      0.0178398
sigma2.v2  2.010e-01  0.14693 0.0020779      0.0056230
u2[1]     -6.793e-03  0.14620 0.0020676      0.0059660
u2[10]     4.187e-04  0.13534 0.0019140      0.0014683
u2[100]   -9.435e-03  0.15514 0.0021941      0.0039587
u2[101]    1.020e-02  0.15850 0.0022415      0.0081117
u2[102]   -2.548e-02  0.22501 0.0031821      0.0157773
u2[103]   -9.551e-03  0.16028 0.0022667      0.0084038
u2[104]   -6.895e-03  0.15702 0.0022206      0.0055757
u2[105]   -8.146e-03  0.15246 0.0021562      0.0048024
u2[106]    7.989e-03  0.14880 0.0021044      0.0053111
u2[107]   -5.916e-03  0.14134 0.0019988      0.0034694
u2[108]    9.437e-04  0.13915 0.0019679      0.0047720
u2[109]    5.178e-03  0.14905 0.0021079      0.0031800
u2[11]     6.213e-03  0.14502 0.0020510      0.0057195
u2[110]    3.499e-03  0.14300 0.0020224      0.0024537
u2[12]    -8.721e-03  0.15438 0.0021833      0.0077207
u2[13]     7.703e-03  0.15102 0.0021357      0.0039570
u2[14]    -6.225e-03  0.15009 0.0021226      0.0053336
u2[15]     1.441e-02  0.16894 0.0023892      0.0103433
u2[16]    -1.845e-02  0.18215 0.0025759      0.0107597
u2[17]    -3.947e-03  0.14391 0.0020352      0.0041664
u2[18]    -3.590e-03  0.14944 0.0021135      0.0048173
u2[19]     7.258e-03  0.13201 0.0018668      0.0029964
u2[2]     -2.056e-02  0.19188 0.0027136      0.0136828
u2[20]    -1.008e-02  0.15769 0.0022300      0.0058615
u2[21]     7.843e-03  0.14428 0.0020404      0.0076001
u2[22]    -3.365e-02  0.24866 0.0035166      0.0190633
u2[23]     1.238e-02  0.15996 0.0022622      0.0088759
u2[24]     8.204e-03  0.14404 0.0020371      0.0070563
u2[25]     1.993e-03  0.13976 0.0019765      0.0020954
u2[26]    -2.146e-03  0.13967 0.0019753      0.0017390
u2[27]     1.772e-02  0.18611 0.0026320      0.0124811
u2[28]     5.888e-03  0.13597 0.0019230      0.0038581
u2[29]     1.152e-03  0.14694 0.0020780      0.0026384
u2[3]     -1.278e-02  0.16579 0.0023447      0.0073307
u2[30]    -8.834e-03  0.16013 0.0022646      0.0074055
u2[31]    -6.399e-03  0.15447 0.0021846      0.0045228
u2[32]    -1.229e-03  0.14083 0.0019916      0.0022848
u2[33]     2.959e-03  0.16240 0.0022967      0.0030442
u2[34]    -6.573e-03  0.15299 0.0021636      0.0050932
u2[35]    -5.693e-03  0.13319 0.0018835      0.0030975
u2[36]    -4.473e-03  0.15435 0.0021828      0.0036080
u2[37]    -5.868e-03  0.13388 0.0018933      0.0026303
u2[38]    -2.092e-03  0.15138 0.0021409      0.0025534
u2[39]     4.841e-04  0.14870 0.0021029      0.0024285
u2[4]     -1.216e-03  0.14165 0.0020032      0.0020725
u2[40]     5.641e-04  0.16180 0.0022882      0.0019900
u2[41]     1.262e-02  0.14946 0.0021136      0.0076904
u2[42]    -1.491e-02  0.15988 0.0022611      0.0091371
u2[43]    -7.752e-03  0.14068 0.0019895      0.0070053
u2[44]    -1.921e-02  0.17486 0.0024730      0.0119603
u2[45]    -1.309e-02  0.16637 0.0023529      0.0101101
u2[46]     5.724e-03  0.15681 0.0022177      0.0043611
u2[47]    -9.775e-03  0.15308 0.0021648      0.0078306
u2[48]    -9.016e-03  0.16072 0.0022729      0.0063036
u2[49]     7.895e-03  0.14769 0.0020886      0.0068442
u2[5]     -1.704e-03  0.14153 0.0020016      0.0017642
u2[50]    -4.477e-03  0.14879 0.0021041      0.0049666
u2[51]     6.019e-03  0.14575 0.0020612      0.0037282
u2[52]    -9.020e-03  0.16515 0.0023355      0.0051957
u2[53]     8.365e-03  0.16025 0.0022662      0.0054975
u2[54]     4.183e-03  0.14574 0.0020611      0.0039117
u2[55]     4.624e-04  0.14755 0.0020867      0.0015298
u2[56]    -1.124e-02  0.15325 0.0021673      0.0080745
u2[57]    -3.595e-04  0.13688 0.0019358      0.0021421
u2[58]     1.534e-02  0.16266 0.0023004      0.0118531
u2[59]     1.728e-03  0.14194 0.0020073      0.0021892
u2[6]      1.939e-02  0.19958 0.0028225      0.0143740
u2[60]    -1.287e-03  0.14925 0.0021108      0.0024450
u2[61]    -7.664e-03  0.15253 0.0021571      0.0048893
u2[62]    -5.330e-03  0.14586 0.0020628      0.0038280
u2[63]     1.819e-03  0.14525 0.0020542      0.0033588
u2[64]    -1.140e-02  0.15093 0.0021345      0.0064195
u2[65]    -1.107e-02  0.16750 0.0023688      0.0095110
u2[66]     1.354e-02  0.15274 0.0021600      0.0079409
u2[67]     1.579e-02  0.16608 0.0023488      0.0088584
u2[68]    -7.530e-03  0.14320 0.0020252      0.0069960
u2[69]     4.114e-03  0.14325 0.0020258      0.0029945
u2[7]     -7.217e-03  0.15853 0.0022419      0.0050943
u2[70]    -1.683e-02  0.19355 0.0027372      0.0111455
u2[71]     6.705e-03  0.16199 0.0022908      0.0044459
u2[72]     1.439e-02  0.16760 0.0023703      0.0107552
u2[73]     1.515e-02  0.17453 0.0024682      0.0104833
u2[74]    -2.385e-03  0.14836 0.0020981      0.0037268
u2[75]     1.079e-02  0.16659 0.0023560      0.0077222
u2[76]    -4.298e-04  0.15285 0.0021616      0.0020238
u2[77]    -8.549e-03  0.14105 0.0019947      0.0060483
u2[78]     7.586e-03  0.14938 0.0021125      0.0036610
u2[79]     1.219e-02  0.16805 0.0023766      0.0086297
u2[8]     -8.960e-03  0.13703 0.0019380      0.0056890
u2[80]     2.574e-04  0.14496 0.0020500      0.0018912
u2[81]    -1.500e-03  0.13876 0.0019624      0.0022149
u2[82]     2.709e-02  0.22201 0.0031396      0.0169392
u2[83]    -2.190e-03  0.13354 0.0018885      0.0020548
u2[84]     1.450e-02  0.15846 0.0022410      0.0083117
u2[85]     4.078e-03  0.13948 0.0019725      0.0033858
u2[86]     4.704e-03  0.14560 0.0020591      0.0054827
u2[87]     1.813e-02  0.17937 0.0025367      0.0125816
u2[88]     7.470e-05  0.14364 0.0020314      0.0016847
u2[89]     2.931e-03  0.15111 0.0021371      0.0027015
u2[9]      1.560e-02  0.18553 0.0026237      0.0098764
u2[90]    -1.344e-02  0.15788 0.0022327      0.0073019
u2[91]     5.910e-03  0.14181 0.0020055      0.0043273
u2[92]     2.570e-03  0.14215 0.0020103      0.0018309
u2[93]     1.226e-02  0.15713 0.0022221      0.0072549
u2[94]    -7.577e-03  0.15517 0.0021945      0.0051010
u2[95]     1.491e-05  0.15941 0.0022544      0.0019792
u2[96]     1.729e-02  0.17681 0.0025004      0.0084590
u2[97]     2.566e-03  0.14658 0.0020730      0.0015609
u2[98]     3.680e-03  0.14243 0.0020143      0.0030542
u2[99]     1.300e-02  0.16482 0.0023309      0.0109910
v2[1]     -1.484e-01  0.40910 0.0057856      0.0063270
v2[10]     8.117e-03  0.37418 0.0052917      0.0052917
v2[100]   -9.316e-02  0.42471 0.0060063      0.0063872
v2[101]    1.747e-01  0.42997 0.0060806      0.0071082
v2[102]   -4.782e-01  0.49857 0.0070508      0.0124169
v2[103]   -1.992e-01  0.41295 0.0058399      0.0077789
v2[104]   -1.631e-01  0.40703 0.0057563      0.0068744
v2[105]   -1.244e-01  0.40788 0.0057683      0.0063699
v2[106]    1.538e-01  0.38921 0.0055042      0.0065040
v2[107]   -5.618e-02  0.38194 0.0054014      0.0054014
v2[108]    1.043e-01  0.38808 0.0054883      0.0057279
v2[109]    8.442e-02  0.40450 0.0057206      0.0058744
v2[11]     9.246e-02  0.40137 0.0056763      0.0059457
v2[110]   -1.225e-02  0.37600 0.0053174      0.0053174
v2[12]    -2.042e-01  0.35983 0.0050887      0.0063752
v2[13]     7.291e-02  0.43732 0.0061846      0.0061846
v2[14]    -1.336e-01  0.36486 0.0051599      0.0053385
v2[15]     2.700e-01  0.41557 0.0058771      0.0080225
v2[16]    -3.138e-01  0.43291 0.0061223      0.0094225
v2[17]    -1.271e-01  0.36799 0.0052041      0.0058717
v2[18]    -1.249e-01  0.39324 0.0055613      0.0064517
v2[19]     5.830e-02  0.36112 0.0051070      0.0051913
v2[2]     -3.489e-01  0.43955 0.0062162      0.0103925
v2[20]    -1.571e-01  0.41667 0.0058926      0.0062678
v2[21]     1.572e-01  0.36830 0.0052085      0.0059593
v2[22]    -5.699e-01  0.47235 0.0066800      0.0141444
v2[23]     2.267e-01  0.40231 0.0056895      0.0074969
v2[24]     1.620e-01  0.37934 0.0053647      0.0060600
v2[25]     3.198e-02  0.38665 0.0054681      0.0055948
v2[26]    -2.310e-02  0.38997 0.0055150      0.0055150
v2[27]     3.716e-01  0.47104 0.0066616      0.0111407
v2[28]     8.050e-02  0.34669 0.0049030      0.0049030
v2[29]     2.913e-02  0.38033 0.0053786      0.0053786
v2[3]     -2.382e-01  0.42199 0.0059678      0.0081920
v2[30]    -1.504e-01  0.36538 0.0051673      0.0062473
v2[31]    -1.183e-01  0.43249 0.0061163      0.0064743
v2[32]    -7.213e-02  0.39056 0.0055234      0.0053735
v2[33]     5.000e-02  0.43548 0.0061587      0.0061587
v2[34]    -7.960e-02  0.40900 0.0057841      0.0057841
v2[35]    -8.836e-02  0.35191 0.0049768      0.0049768
v2[36]    -7.358e-02  0.38928 0.0055052      0.0056523
v2[37]    -5.528e-02  0.36539 0.0051674      0.0058450
v2[38]     3.242e-02  0.42108 0.0059550      0.0059550
v2[39]     5.207e-02  0.39459 0.0055804      0.0055804
v2[4]     -2.033e-02  0.37163 0.0052556      0.0054143
v2[40]    -4.143e-02  0.44631 0.0063118      0.0065347
v2[41]     1.739e-01  0.36441 0.0051535      0.0069467
v2[42]    -2.189e-01  0.41070 0.0058081      0.0076222
v2[43]    -1.527e-01  0.37352 0.0052824      0.0052824
v2[44]    -3.192e-01  0.40448 0.0057203      0.0094020
v2[45]    -2.332e-01  0.40788 0.0057683      0.0080496
v2[46]     6.850e-02  0.44191 0.0062495      0.0064418
v2[47]    -1.839e-01  0.40827 0.0057738      0.0069778
v2[48]    -1.780e-01  0.43556 0.0061598      0.0075571
v2[49]     1.410e-01  0.37637 0.0053226      0.0055538
v2[5]     -2.271e-02  0.38078 0.0053851      0.0053851
v2[50]    -1.071e-01  0.36830 0.0052086      0.0058238
v2[51]     9.406e-02  0.37180 0.0052580      0.0054126
v2[52]    -1.342e-01  0.42775 0.0060494      0.0067764
v2[53]     1.172e-01  0.42902 0.0060672      0.0064730
v2[54]     1.059e-01  0.39174 0.0055401      0.0057819
v2[55]     2.105e-02  0.39256 0.0055516      0.0055516
v2[56]    -2.130e-01  0.39555 0.0055939      0.0070976
v2[57]    -2.248e-02  0.37260 0.0052693      0.0056148
v2[58]     2.670e-01  0.40171 0.0056810      0.0080122
v2[59]     5.208e-02  0.39111 0.0055311      0.0056543
v2[6]      4.014e-01  0.45035 0.0063689      0.0109758
v2[60]    -3.116e-02  0.39728 0.0056183      0.0056183
v2[61]    -6.678e-02  0.43799 0.0061941      0.0061941
v2[62]    -9.007e-02  0.39316 0.0055601      0.0058176
v2[63]     4.478e-02  0.38404 0.0054311      0.0054311
v2[64]    -1.113e-01  0.39977 0.0056536      0.0059633
v2[65]    -1.874e-01  0.46239 0.0065391      0.0084598
v2[66]     1.680e-01  0.37808 0.0053469      0.0061219
v2[67]     2.662e-01  0.40870 0.0057799      0.0079452
v2[68]    -1.785e-01  0.35898 0.0050768      0.0064164
v2[69]     8.443e-02  0.39152 0.0055369      0.0055369
v2[7]     -8.265e-02  0.41669 0.0058929      0.0061611
v2[70]    -3.037e-01  0.43301 0.0061236      0.0092543
v2[71]     1.488e-01  0.40944 0.0057903      0.0062894
v2[72]     2.544e-01  0.40095 0.0056703      0.0083891
v2[73]     2.584e-01  0.44548 0.0063001      0.0086780
v2[74]    -6.762e-02  0.41362 0.0058495      0.0058495
v2[75]     2.280e-01  0.41786 0.0059095      0.0073690
v2[76]    -2.204e-02  0.42259 0.0059763      0.0058870
v2[77]    -1.564e-01  0.35353 0.0049997      0.0055551
v2[78]     9.721e-02  0.41115 0.0058146      0.0065236
v2[79]     2.176e-01  0.41060 0.0058067      0.0072733
v2[8]     -1.482e-01  0.36669 0.0051858      0.0061655
v2[80]     4.837e-04  0.40061 0.0056654      0.0056654
v2[81]    -3.901e-02  0.36899 0.0052182      0.0052182
v2[82]     5.106e-01  0.47952 0.0067814      0.0135776
v2[83]    -5.994e-02  0.36884 0.0052162      0.0054622
v2[84]     2.487e-01  0.40490 0.0057261      0.0083362
v2[85]     5.253e-02  0.36450 0.0051548      0.0051548
v2[86]     8.224e-02  0.39880 0.0056399      0.0059389
v2[87]     3.133e-01  0.41252 0.0058339      0.0095559
v2[88]    -4.560e-02  0.40088 0.0056694      0.0056694
v2[89]    -2.357e-03  0.41686 0.0058953      0.0058953
v2[9]      2.938e-01  0.40847 0.0057766      0.0090358
v2[90]    -2.251e-01  0.41312 0.0058424      0.0075670
v2[91]     1.151e-01  0.36867 0.0052139      0.0052139
v2[92]     1.728e-02  0.38414 0.0054326      0.0054326
v2[93]     2.010e-01  0.41096 0.0058118      0.0073864
v2[94]    -1.363e-01  0.41644 0.0058894      0.0071283
v2[95]    -1.701e-02  0.44698 0.0063212      0.0063687
v2[96]     2.883e-01  0.41097 0.0058119      0.0081459
v2[97]    -1.416e-02  0.36486 0.0051600      0.0051600
v2[98]     7.771e-02  0.37393 0.0052881      0.0053665
v2[99]     2.663e-01  0.37998 0.0053737      0.0079365

2. Quantiles for each variable:

                2.5%        25%        50%       75%     97.5%
beta[1]   -5.661e-01  -0.436900 -3.695e-01  -0.30480  -0.16806
beta[2]    5.835e-02   0.080970  9.312e-02   0.10550   0.13030
beta[3]    4.266e-02   0.060165  6.943e-02   0.07881   0.09668
beta[4]    7.510e-03   0.032967  4.596e-02   0.05915   0.08423
beta[5]    1.093e-01   0.132175  1.447e-01   0.15752   0.18170
deviance   8.344e+02 852.000000  8.624e+02 873.60000 888.00000
sigma2.u2  3.314e-04   0.001760  4.525e-03   0.01239   0.23715
sigma2.v2  2.110e-03   0.086148  1.754e-01   0.28752   0.54813
u2[1]     -2.959e-01  -0.046435 -4.022e-03   0.03965   0.24657
u2[10]    -2.536e-01  -0.037180 -1.678e-04   0.03691   0.24030
u2[100]   -3.154e-01  -0.046490 -3.468e-03   0.03779   0.25381
u2[101]   -2.647e-01  -0.037907  3.696e-03   0.05038   0.34584
u2[102]   -5.059e-01  -0.078217 -1.418e-02   0.05617   0.32553
u2[103]   -3.145e-01  -0.049052 -4.468e-03   0.03964   0.25598
u2[104]   -3.002e-01  -0.045267 -2.553e-03   0.03875   0.23972
u2[105]   -3.112e-01  -0.045387 -3.471e-03   0.03825   0.24860
u2[106]   -2.439e-01  -0.035403  2.721e-03   0.04647   0.31114
u2[107]   -2.890e-01  -0.040765 -1.723e-03   0.03483   0.24010
u2[108]   -2.916e-01  -0.039670  1.342e-03   0.04163   0.28830
u2[109]   -2.627e-01  -0.038312  1.877e-03   0.04167   0.30166
u2[11]    -2.393e-01  -0.037840  2.753e-03   0.04222   0.29583
u2[110]   -2.464e-01  -0.035167  1.970e-03   0.04019   0.27168
u2[12]    -3.175e-01  -0.044445 -4.684e-03   0.03759   0.25077
u2[13]    -2.637e-01  -0.039205  1.600e-03   0.04802   0.32851
u2[14]    -2.874e-01  -0.041407 -2.446e-03   0.03477   0.23874
u2[15]    -2.624e-01  -0.041350  6.553e-03   0.05694   0.36750
u2[16]    -4.011e-01  -0.062430 -1.008e-02   0.04131   0.27310
u2[17]    -2.635e-01  -0.041405 -2.328e-03   0.03595   0.24531
u2[18]    -2.860e-01  -0.042682 -1.773e-03   0.03945   0.25638
u2[19]    -2.157e-01  -0.035633  9.879e-04   0.04006   0.26430
u2[2]     -4.416e-01  -0.065885 -1.065e-02   0.04242   0.29591
u2[20]    -3.166e-01  -0.048122 -4.722e-03   0.03821   0.26480
u2[21]    -2.506e-01  -0.037295  2.684e-03   0.04415   0.29838
u2[22]    -6.123e-01  -0.096557 -2.289e-02   0.06328   0.35916
u2[23]    -2.530e-01  -0.038885  6.784e-03   0.05157   0.35221
u2[24]    -2.337e-01  -0.037347  2.367e-03   0.04421   0.29571
u2[25]    -2.432e-01  -0.038213  4.899e-04   0.03929   0.26141
u2[26]    -2.632e-01  -0.039913 -1.548e-03   0.03856   0.25538
u2[27]    -3.037e-01  -0.046688  1.043e-02   0.06660   0.43090
u2[28]    -2.251e-01  -0.033750  2.214e-03   0.03778   0.26451
u2[29]    -2.742e-01  -0.037823  8.429e-04   0.04045   0.26750
u2[3]     -3.498e-01  -0.053753 -5.508e-03   0.03884   0.25893
u2[30]    -2.883e-01  -0.043733 -4.343e-03   0.03489   0.25380
u2[31]    -3.087e-01  -0.047910 -4.041e-03   0.03914   0.26143
u2[32]    -2.718e-01  -0.041497 -1.409e-03   0.03746   0.25540
u2[33]    -2.699e-01  -0.041050  1.821e-03   0.04393   0.31474
u2[34]    -3.068e-01  -0.043540 -2.210e-03   0.03716   0.25128
u2[35]    -2.557e-01  -0.041220 -2.095e-03   0.03396   0.21046
u2[36]    -2.973e-01  -0.044468 -2.418e-03   0.03626   0.25451
u2[37]    -2.642e-01  -0.041125 -3.105e-03   0.03307   0.23986
u2[38]    -2.892e-01  -0.043465 -4.333e-04   0.04097   0.26272
u2[39]    -2.830e-01  -0.038663  1.870e-03   0.03949   0.27473
u2[4]     -2.609e-01  -0.040657 -1.370e-03   0.03608   0.23611
u2[40]    -2.928e-01  -0.043677  1.844e-04   0.04398   0.29340
u2[41]    -2.148e-01  -0.036502  3.341e-03   0.04597   0.31522
u2[42]    -3.410e-01  -0.052092 -6.386e-03   0.03705   0.24250
u2[43]    -2.820e-01  -0.043460 -4.780e-03   0.03659   0.23442
u2[44]    -3.969e-01  -0.060503 -8.469e-03   0.04221   0.25562
u2[45]    -3.434e-01  -0.050397 -4.622e-03   0.04129   0.25514
u2[46]    -2.633e-01  -0.039282  1.593e-03   0.04480   0.30447
u2[47]    -3.192e-01  -0.048180 -3.813e-03   0.03954   0.24407
u2[48]    -3.474e-01  -0.049022 -4.249e-03   0.03887   0.26817
u2[49]    -2.434e-01  -0.037623  2.941e-03   0.04297   0.29711
u2[5]     -2.669e-01  -0.040095 -2.012e-03   0.03831   0.25682
u2[50]    -2.851e-01  -0.042085 -2.512e-03   0.03700   0.25811
u2[51]    -2.308e-01  -0.035830  1.930e-03   0.04106   0.29772
u2[52]    -3.225e-01  -0.047727 -3.986e-03   0.03746   0.26862
u2[53]    -2.679e-01  -0.041183  2.883e-03   0.04571   0.35214
u2[54]    -2.490e-01  -0.039635  2.243e-03   0.04183   0.28631
u2[55]    -2.567e-01  -0.039282 -6.952e-04   0.03880   0.27983
u2[56]    -3.285e-01  -0.049362 -5.845e-03   0.03801   0.25664
u2[57]    -2.473e-01  -0.037237 -2.294e-04   0.03653   0.25585
u2[58]    -2.463e-01  -0.040165  6.798e-03   0.05362   0.37481
u2[59]    -2.454e-01  -0.038595  7.575e-04   0.03866   0.27754
u2[6]     -2.977e-01  -0.048810  1.017e-02   0.06795   0.45510
u2[60]    -2.687e-01  -0.040430 -6.359e-04   0.03780   0.26391
u2[61]    -3.244e-01  -0.045398 -2.573e-03   0.03991   0.25202
u2[62]    -2.827e-01  -0.041300 -1.937e-03   0.03731   0.25824
u2[63]    -2.692e-01  -0.039047 -8.327e-04   0.03793   0.28970
u2[64]    -3.171e-01  -0.046898 -3.394e-03   0.03814   0.22051
u2[65]    -3.684e-01  -0.050735 -4.383e-03   0.04095   0.27870
u2[66]    -2.280e-01  -0.035730  4.570e-03   0.04684   0.35964
u2[67]    -2.542e-01  -0.039463  7.310e-03   0.05570   0.36215
u2[68]    -3.266e-01  -0.043565 -3.238e-03   0.03719   0.24959
u2[69]    -2.416e-01  -0.035523  3.085e-03   0.04278   0.26044
u2[7]     -3.203e-01  -0.044112 -2.884e-03   0.03673   0.26382
u2[70]    -4.149e-01  -0.058447 -8.944e-03   0.04243   0.30746
u2[71]    -2.649e-01  -0.039315  4.095e-03   0.04714   0.29653
u2[72]    -2.589e-01  -0.039215  6.612e-03   0.05247   0.36131
u2[73]    -2.673e-01  -0.040585  6.750e-03   0.05707   0.37274
u2[74]    -2.692e-01  -0.042332 -1.989e-03   0.03922   0.27301
u2[75]    -2.603e-01  -0.039303  5.497e-03   0.05219   0.33554
u2[76]    -2.785e-01  -0.040063 -2.419e-04   0.04279   0.28444
u2[77]    -2.994e-01  -0.042612 -3.716e-03   0.03423   0.22649
u2[78]    -2.609e-01  -0.037080  3.255e-03   0.04417   0.29881
u2[79]    -2.613e-01  -0.037115  5.635e-03   0.04972   0.36510
u2[8]     -2.910e-01  -0.042683 -4.620e-03   0.03398   0.23112
u2[80]    -2.831e-01  -0.037167 -4.306e-04   0.03986   0.24923
u2[81]    -2.643e-01  -0.038640 -6.385e-04   0.03803   0.23043
u2[82]    -3.493e-01  -0.057012  1.747e-02   0.09002   0.53211
u2[83]    -2.493e-01  -0.038232 -1.006e-03   0.03693   0.23313
u2[84]    -2.443e-01  -0.041122  5.875e-03   0.05327   0.35962
u2[85]    -2.441e-01  -0.035107  3.073e-03   0.03795   0.27102
u2[86]    -2.492e-01  -0.038415  2.124e-03   0.04145   0.30975
u2[87]    -2.652e-01  -0.039337  8.023e-03   0.05928   0.41421
u2[88]    -2.581e-01  -0.041380 -4.350e-04   0.03902   0.25630
u2[89]    -2.502e-01  -0.041487 -9.711e-04   0.03882   0.28956
u2[9]     -2.904e-01  -0.039965  7.957e-03   0.05661   0.39022
u2[90]    -3.359e-01  -0.053068 -4.471e-03   0.03864   0.23603
u2[91]    -2.391e-01  -0.034702  2.553e-03   0.04245   0.27111
u2[92]    -2.437e-01  -0.036937 -2.679e-04   0.03801   0.27130
u2[93]    -2.636e-01  -0.036768  5.319e-03   0.05114   0.35627
u2[94]    -3.173e-01  -0.047115 -3.744e-03   0.03669   0.24681
u2[95]    -3.087e-01  -0.042722  8.298e-04   0.04295   0.28570
u2[96]    -2.696e-01  -0.039753  8.865e-03   0.05901   0.37710
u2[97]    -2.503e-01  -0.033747  1.267e-03   0.03728   0.26761
u2[98]    -2.725e-01  -0.036702  2.156e-03   0.04041   0.27912
u2[99]    -2.569e-01  -0.041555  6.815e-03   0.05189   0.35580
v2[1]     -1.060e+00  -0.380200 -9.937e-02   0.10003   0.59260
v2[10]    -7.767e-01  -0.202400  4.269e-03   0.21860   0.78088
v2[100]   -1.038e+00  -0.324425 -5.571e-02   0.14843   0.73135
v2[101]   -6.266e-01  -0.083255  1.188e-01   0.41592   1.12710
v2[102]   -1.639e+00  -0.782300 -3.957e-01  -0.09283   0.26803
v2[103]   -1.108e+00  -0.435700 -1.512e-01   0.05317   0.54490
v2[104]   -1.069e+00  -0.391275 -1.117e-01   0.08246   0.56981
v2[105]   -1.022e+00  -0.347025 -8.117e-02   0.11450   0.65190
v2[106]   -5.769e-01  -0.083098  1.094e-01   0.38043   1.01400
v2[107]   -8.495e-01  -0.270625 -3.522e-02   0.16378   0.72473
v2[108]   -6.438e-01  -0.117450  6.613e-02   0.32867   0.94113
v2[109]   -7.259e-01  -0.141325  5.203e-02   0.31143   0.96682
v2[11]    -6.684e-01  -0.131400  5.946e-02   0.30530   0.95747
v2[110]   -7.986e-01  -0.226125 -7.104e-03   0.20167   0.76278
v2[12]    -9.923e-01  -0.423800 -1.616e-01   0.02518   0.46162
v2[13]    -7.753e-01  -0.171925  3.854e-02   0.30965   1.02715
v2[14]    -9.521e-01  -0.339575 -9.660e-02   0.08242   0.54360
v2[15]    -4.462e-01  -0.001532  2.132e-01   0.50800   1.20302
v2[16]    -1.320e+00  -0.560400 -2.441e-01  -0.01416   0.42071
v2[17]    -9.399e-01  -0.337050 -8.854e-02   0.09079   0.55851
v2[18]    -9.786e-01  -0.347125 -8.879e-02   0.10387   0.65081
v2[19]    -6.759e-01  -0.148400  3.863e-02   0.27042   0.82871
v2[2]     -1.338e+00  -0.612600 -2.874e-01  -0.03030   0.37033
v2[20]    -1.083e+00  -0.394300 -1.098e-01   0.08841   0.62101
v2[21]    -5.151e-01  -0.071098  1.138e-01   0.37515   0.97292
v2[22]    -1.633e+00  -0.867325 -5.117e-01  -0.20388   0.13560
v2[23]    -5.042e-01  -0.031407  1.762e-01   0.45840   1.13810
v2[24]    -5.479e-01  -0.058870  1.171e-01   0.38185   1.00200
v2[25]    -7.765e-01  -0.183275  2.063e-02   0.25285   0.84192
v2[26]    -8.677e-01  -0.244500 -7.503e-03   0.20690   0.74631
v2[27]    -3.732e-01   0.025460  2.929e-01   0.63598   1.43600
v2[28]    -6.012e-01  -0.123825  5.600e-02   0.27775   0.82801
v2[29]    -7.478e-01  -0.190200  1.847e-02   0.25033   0.82692
v2[3]     -1.189e+00  -0.485875 -1.699e-01   0.02386   0.47311
v2[30]    -9.435e-01  -0.365350 -1.076e-01   0.07243   0.51212
v2[31]    -1.053e+00  -0.350650 -8.195e-02   0.12443   0.69722
v2[32]    -9.255e-01  -0.280050 -5.230e-02   0.15507   0.70521
v2[33]    -8.319e-01  -0.184525  2.683e-02   0.28573   0.99045
v2[34]    -9.708e-01  -0.306425 -5.164e-02   0.15937   0.72175
v2[35]    -8.448e-01  -0.289425 -6.390e-02   0.12030   0.59864
v2[36]    -9.254e-01  -0.293700 -4.745e-02   0.15652   0.69310
v2[37]    -8.259e-01  -0.266525 -2.955e-02   0.16103   0.67570
v2[38]    -8.275e-01  -0.205825  1.576e-02   0.26735   0.93431
v2[39]    -7.605e-01  -0.166400  2.837e-02   0.27768   0.89145
v2[4]     -7.728e-01  -0.230925 -1.333e-02   0.19330   0.70861
v2[40]    -1.001e+00  -0.281000 -2.091e-02   0.20042   0.88616
v2[41]    -4.864e-01  -0.052215  1.309e-01   0.38493   0.96743
v2[42]    -1.163e+00  -0.450050 -1.572e-01   0.03684   0.51057
v2[43]    -9.749e-01  -0.374275 -1.161e-01   0.06550   0.55732
v2[44]    -1.235e+00  -0.555400 -2.671e-01  -0.02321   0.33314
v2[45]    -1.148e+00  -0.466550 -1.693e-01   0.02480   0.48701
v2[46]    -8.113e-01  -0.168100  3.439e-02   0.30283   0.99860
v2[47]    -1.113e+00  -0.413600 -1.322e-01   0.06089   0.57101
v2[48]    -1.166e+00  -0.409775 -1.213e-01   0.07722   0.60784
v2[49]    -5.782e-01  -0.085852  1.070e-01   0.36377   0.98055
v2[5]     -8.171e-01  -0.243400 -1.314e-02   0.19985   0.75055
v2[50]    -8.974e-01  -0.318925 -7.796e-02   0.10942   0.60211
v2[51]    -6.324e-01  -0.116325  6.382e-02   0.30702   0.89523
v2[52]    -1.072e+00  -0.367550 -8.815e-02   0.10965   0.67846
v2[53]    -7.118e-01  -0.131675  7.417e-02   0.36142   1.06700
v2[54]    -6.515e-01  -0.121825  7.403e-02   0.32635   0.97424
v2[55]    -7.919e-01  -0.203025  1.534e-02   0.24340   0.82920
v2[56]    -1.106e+00  -0.439800 -1.633e-01   0.03433   0.51883
v2[57]    -8.098e-01  -0.229775 -1.505e-02   0.19512   0.75511
v2[58]    -4.252e-01  -0.002586  2.071e-01   0.49412   1.16207
v2[59]    -7.374e-01  -0.176150  3.704e-02   0.27510   0.89072
v2[6]     -3.056e-01   0.060570  3.293e-01   0.66847   1.45002
v2[60]    -8.506e-01  -0.263625 -2.150e-02   0.19670   0.79730
v2[61]    -9.885e-01  -0.310000 -4.273e-02   0.17170   0.82532
v2[62]    -9.489e-01  -0.317525 -5.399e-02   0.13833   0.67702
v2[63]    -7.369e-01  -0.179900  2.272e-02   0.26182   0.82782
v2[64]    -9.720e-01  -0.339700 -7.757e-02   0.11960   0.69400
v2[65]    -1.250e+00  -0.435325 -1.243e-01   0.08035   0.66401
v2[66]    -5.612e-01  -0.058217  1.268e-01   0.39725   1.00002
v2[67]    -4.506e-01  -0.004920  2.130e-01   0.50757   1.21002
v2[68]    -9.537e-01  -0.389800 -1.420e-01   0.04395   0.48627
v2[69]    -6.791e-01  -0.138225  5.555e-02   0.29542   0.94966
v2[7]     -9.840e-01  -0.313900 -5.348e-02   0.14780   0.73374
v2[70]    -1.309e+00  -0.560325 -2.303e-01  -0.00427   0.41550
v2[71]    -6.250e-01  -0.087810  1.043e-01   0.38825   1.03005
v2[72]    -4.295e-01  -0.008846  2.024e-01   0.48893   1.15912
v2[73]    -4.940e-01  -0.024842  1.901e-01   0.49980   1.32900
v2[74]    -9.690e-01  -0.292325 -4.701e-02   0.16560   0.74106
v2[75]    -4.784e-01  -0.036413  1.707e-01   0.45092   1.18905
v2[76]    -9.150e-01  -0.253950 -8.355e-03   0.21568   0.85141
v2[77]    -9.421e-01  -0.368625 -1.183e-01   0.06102   0.50038
v2[78]    -7.165e-01  -0.142550  6.146e-02   0.33117   1.01702
v2[79]    -5.222e-01  -0.041955  1.588e-01   0.45585   1.13602
v2[8]     -9.649e-01  -0.360250 -1.046e-01   0.07451   0.53683
v2[80]    -8.318e-01  -0.223350 -1.713e-03   0.22065   0.84864
v2[81]    -8.238e-01  -0.251000 -1.954e-02   0.17542   0.68600
v2[82]    -1.975e-01   0.142075  4.376e-01   0.81217   1.58712
v2[83]    -8.429e-01  -0.270700 -3.385e-02   0.16092   0.67987
v2[84]    -4.592e-01  -0.014242  1.943e-01   0.48570   1.16415
v2[85]    -6.519e-01  -0.164700  3.353e-02   0.26305   0.84981
v2[86]    -6.987e-01  -0.149800  4.643e-02   0.30260   0.94141
v2[87]    -3.614e-01   0.026940  2.537e-01   0.55900   1.24102
v2[88]    -9.047e-01  -0.268325 -2.336e-02   0.17710   0.77751
v2[89]    -8.936e-01  -0.227200 -3.780e-03   0.22240   0.85664
v2[9]     -3.850e-01   0.006798  2.286e-01   0.54210   1.20700
v2[90]    -1.148e+00  -0.463525 -1.673e-01   0.02917   0.50383
v2[91]    -5.835e-01  -0.106500  7.648e-02   0.32850   0.92972
v2[92]    -7.637e-01  -0.200850  7.349e-03   0.23692   0.83041
v2[93]    -5.385e-01  -0.044728  1.448e-01   0.43435   1.14102
v2[94]    -1.041e+00  -0.362900 -9.249e-02   0.10162   0.65485
v2[95]    -9.636e-01  -0.246425 -8.398e-03   0.23125   0.89481
v2[96]    -4.138e-01   0.006237  2.368e-01   0.52782   1.20202
v2[97]    -7.754e-01  -0.219850 -6.304e-03   0.18740   0.72967
v2[98]    -6.808e-01  -0.138100  5.083e-02   0.29547   0.86260
v2[99]    -3.854e-01   0.008690  2.170e-01   0.49323   1.11407

> if (!require(coda)) {
+   warning("package coda required to run this example")
+ } else {
+   effectiveSize(mymodel)
+ }
Loading required package: coda
   beta[1]    beta[2]    beta[3]    beta[4]    beta[5]   deviance  sigma2.u2 
2082.44696 3137.49487 3054.58854 3023.89226 2337.95284  755.28314   17.56884 
 sigma2.v2      u2[1]     u2[10]    u2[100]    u2[101]    u2[102]    u2[103] 
 682.80851  600.53106 8496.50034 1535.90872  381.78111  203.39323  363.75427 
   u2[104]    u2[105]    u2[106]    u2[107]    u2[108]    u2[109]     u2[11] 
 793.06847 1007.87939  784.96238 1659.53527  850.35192 2196.86103  642.92992 
   u2[110]     u2[12]     u2[13]     u2[14]     u2[15]     u2[16]     u2[17] 
3396.76525  399.84213 1456.52746  791.86661  266.77535  286.57503 1193.00017 
    u2[18]     u2[19]      u2[2]     u2[20]     u2[21]     u2[22]     u2[23] 
 962.39583 1940.82964  196.66229  723.74559  360.39776  170.14064  324.78323 
    u2[24]     u2[25]     u2[26]     u2[27]     u2[28]     u2[29]      u2[3] 
 416.70586 4448.70087 6450.67265  222.35260 1242.12973 3101.42742  511.49150 
    u2[30]     u2[31]     u2[32]     u2[33]     u2[34]     u2[35]     u2[36] 
 467.56583 1166.49929 3799.03573 2846.05324  902.29255 1848.76935 1830.01568 
    u2[37]     u2[38]     u2[39]      u2[4]     u2[40]     u2[41]     u2[42] 
2590.77726 3514.91840 3749.25222 4671.24387 6610.71965  377.67506  306.18418 
    u2[43]     u2[44]     u2[45]     u2[46]     u2[47]     u2[48]     u2[49] 
 403.29324  213.75412  270.80526 1292.94029  382.14707  650.06303  465.62303 
     u2[5]     u2[50]     u2[51]     u2[52]     u2[53]     u2[54]     u2[55] 
6436.48883  897.42431 1528.35690 1010.30901  849.65715 1388.12448 9302.06804 
    u2[56]     u2[57]     u2[58]     u2[59]      u2[6]     u2[60]     u2[61] 
 360.22739 4083.09884  188.32664 4203.48410  192.79152 3726.50150  973.23391 
    u2[62]     u2[63]     u2[64]     u2[65]     u2[66]     u2[67]     u2[68] 
1451.94313 1870.07952  552.81204  310.15423  369.94946  351.50728  418.98882 
    u2[69]      u2[7]     u2[70]     u2[71]     u2[72]     u2[73]     u2[74] 
2288.27451  968.35022  301.57614 1327.54053  242.84440  277.15487 1584.76425 
    u2[75]     u2[76]     u2[77]     u2[78]     u2[79]      u2[8]     u2[80] 
 465.40306 5704.48118  543.84318 1664.86959  379.22078  580.21447 5875.04217 
    u2[81]     u2[82]     u2[83]     u2[84]     u2[85]     u2[86]     u2[87] 
3924.91328  171.76816 4223.47114  363.46667 1696.92973  705.22006  203.25300 
    u2[88]     u2[89]      u2[9]     u2[90]     u2[91]     u2[92]     u2[93] 
7269.69429 3128.88658  352.86495  467.48804 1073.98608 6028.10242  469.08123 
    u2[94]     u2[95]     u2[96]     u2[97]     u2[98]     u2[99]      v2[1] 
 925.38997 6487.18409  436.87371 8818.70552 2174.78310  224.88651 4180.92571 
    v2[10]    v2[100]    v2[101]    v2[102]    v2[103]    v2[104]    v2[105] 
5000.00000 4421.43642 3658.92565 1612.20970 2818.08415 3505.83031 4100.21692 
   v2[106]    v2[107]    v2[108]    v2[109]     v2[11]    v2[110]     v2[12] 
3580.97791 5000.00000 4590.50948 4741.50962 4557.12992 5000.00000 3185.68529 
    v2[13]     v2[14]     v2[15]     v2[16]     v2[17]     v2[18]     v2[19] 
5000.00000 4671.01067 2683.35124 2110.89807 3927.75269 3715.11638 4838.90087 
     v2[2]     v2[20]     v2[21]     v2[22]     v2[23]     v2[24]     v2[25] 
1788.84343 4419.19350 3819.52369 1115.20527 2879.72756 3918.42673 4776.10652 
    v2[26]     v2[27]     v2[28]     v2[29]      v2[3]     v2[30]     v2[31] 
5000.00000 1787.70088 5000.00000 5000.00000 2653.48512 3420.66340 4462.28785 
    v2[32]     v2[33]     v2[34]     v2[35]     v2[36]     v2[37]     v2[38] 
5282.81376 5000.00000 5000.00000 5000.00000 4743.09481 3907.82705 5000.00000 
    v2[39]      v2[4]     v2[40]     v2[41]     v2[42]     v2[43]     v2[44] 
5000.00000 4711.22000 4664.58841 2751.82408 2903.21435 5000.00000 1850.80199 
    v2[45]     v2[46]     v2[47]     v2[48]     v2[49]      v2[5]     v2[50] 
2567.56033 4705.97683 3423.44650 3321.95546 4592.47370 5000.00000 3999.41841 
    v2[51]     v2[52]     v2[53]     v2[54]     v2[55]     v2[56]     v2[57] 
4718.56673 3984.69289 4392.73887 4590.49751 5000.00000 3105.78170 4403.62011 
    v2[58]     v2[59]      v2[6]     v2[60]     v2[61]     v2[62]     v2[63] 
2513.72175 4784.49134 1683.57707 5000.00000 5000.00000 4567.17208 5000.00000 
    v2[64]     v2[65]     v2[66]     v2[67]     v2[68]     v2[69]      v2[7] 
4494.07401 2987.40240 3814.13370 2646.11841 3130.08667 5000.00000 4574.17584 
    v2[70]     v2[71]     v2[72]     v2[73]     v2[74]     v2[75]     v2[76] 
2189.29343 4237.96820 2284.32823 2635.25373 5000.00000 3215.54089 5152.82714 
    v2[77]     v2[78]     v2[79]      v2[8]     v2[80]     v2[81]     v2[82] 
4050.16000 3972.20707 3186.85610 3537.13715 5000.00000 5000.00000 1247.28834 
    v2[83]     v2[84]     v2[85]     v2[86]     v2[87]     v2[88]     v2[89] 
4559.75281 2359.15019 5000.00000 4509.25282 1863.56025 5000.00000 5000.00000 
     v2[9]     v2[90]     v2[91]     v2[92]     v2[93]     v2[94]     v2[95] 
2043.53499 2980.58960 5000.00000 5000.00000 3095.42214 3413.04075 4925.64410 
    v2[96]     v2[97]     v2[98]     v2[99] 
2545.24291 5000.00000 4854.93879 2292.22488 
> sixway(mymodel[, "sigma2.u2", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 250)
> sixway(mymodel[, "sigma2.v2", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 100)
> 
> # 24.6 Parameter expansion and random slopes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
> 
> ## Read tutorial data
> data(tutorial, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 + standlrt | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9136.615416
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9129.472590
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9137.752388
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9149.641457
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9113.737768
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9127.854908
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9099.670195
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9107.133017
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9108.686421
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9142.796685

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9114.789855
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.936360
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.626663
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9140.221260
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9133.366931
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.633267
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9110.267312
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9134.271816
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9146.903828
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.578020
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9132.630258
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9105.115711
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9126.654041
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9138.820724
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.239813
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9145.879653
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9132.483550
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9094.657080
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.502105
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9094.902922
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.645832
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.926707
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.509733
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9108.989181
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9111.759420
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9103.538840
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.142978
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.533977
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9114.717113
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.929584
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9146.845851
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9126.654978
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.854549
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9114.945398
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9156.130168
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9134.732656
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9142.867734
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9137.471434
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.702153
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9133.939751
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9107.640871
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9137.519015
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9147.472132
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.767457
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.396071
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9143.494727
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.468641
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9137.527730
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.747459
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9154.348069
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9142.340919
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9100.831693
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9131.653716
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9151.916582
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9165.855130
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.508254
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9146.519009
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.524343
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.808395
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.880481
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.006670
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.446060
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9105.444348
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9141.749060
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.819747
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9140.592905
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.521430
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9137.983211
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.855413
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.638160
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.619021
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9124.980114
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.552922
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.477138
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9114.227379
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9110.953194
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.839082
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.763419
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.590737
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.053640
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.274103
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9115.311806
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.276612
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.226668
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9140.403968
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9153.535294
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.253885
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.415887
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9136.007855
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.650550
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9108.406619
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.027872
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.517145
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9102.506754
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.791725
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.949129
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9123.201133
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.574595
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.080554
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.628553
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9123.2
S.D.    =          16.792
S.E.M.  =         0.23747

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 2.17s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9123.206   9031.714   91.492     9214.698   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 + standlrt | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.01257     0.04089  -0.31       0.7585         -0.09055     0.06865   209 
standlrt     0.55645     0.02084  26.70   4.362e-157  ***     0.51501     0.59701   596 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                           Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept            0.09711     0.02001      0.06465     0.14261   2549 
cov_Intercept_standlrt   0.01933     0.00739      0.00660     0.03537   1740 
var_standlrt             0.01526     0.00485      0.00772     0.02662    846 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.55440     0.01242      0.53052     0.57904   4750 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## Parameter expansion at level 2
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 + standlrt | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcOptions = list(paex = c(2, 1))), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9135.127169
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9148.163008
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9102.104535
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9114.394573
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9105.311161
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9137.840052
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9116.215595
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9090.651789
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9143.683438
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9105.378207

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9109.953699
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9113.447689
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.754244
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9134.644886
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9150.515253
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.042528
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9108.997613
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9099.391843
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9101.256698
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9146.475427
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9147.503698
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9143.926022
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9141.615115
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9091.264733
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9091.291292
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9131.356415
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9111.380064
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9169.637966
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.854038
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.377864
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9124.417818
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.164964
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.937095
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9108.312312
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9109.791504
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.679623
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9132.102248
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.997445
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9143.621916
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9135.839997
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9110.092203
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9174.697501
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.663263
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9126.913640
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.652301
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9139.967268
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9101.371438
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.554278
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9123.837448
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.846759
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9137.921493
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9113.452999
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9132.256625
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9149.724279
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9104.194200
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9130.956109
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9144.487294
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9151.420473
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9142.022739
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9092.208561
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9093.532212
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9133.573766
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9110.437701
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9132.441324
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9119.082338
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9112.408828
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9145.817823
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.238620
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.215057
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9092.543320
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.737623
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.043262
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9157.116499
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.309694
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9110.064532
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9106.527261
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9102.349746
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9120.704380
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.161109
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9115.061856
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.512228
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.263086
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9116.291689
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9163.212970
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9131.204878
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.362598
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9117.953271
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9123.219201
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9113.394264
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9142.098398
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.227575
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9158.576003
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9128.234616
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9111.782197
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9124.336394
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9133.096088
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9149.724759
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9103.154606
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9102.448812
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9125.116708
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9139.880432
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9121.080257
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9141.458092
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.076651
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.930091
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9118.963788
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9127.441809
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9129.583730
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9122.893715
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9105.608366
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9122.8
S.D.    =          16.863
S.E.M.  =         0.23848

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 2.5s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9122.833   9030.792   92.040     9214.873   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 + standlrt | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.01128     0.04216  -0.27        0.789         -0.09870     0.06942   196 
standlrt     0.55636     0.02004  27.76   1.193e-169  ***     0.51662     0.59516   851 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                           Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept            0.09766     0.02061      0.06387     0.14347   2170 
cov_Intercept_standlrt   0.01906     0.00729      0.00643     0.03513   1628 
var_standlrt             0.01551     0.00497      0.00765     0.02693    909 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.55442     0.01264      0.53019     0.57942   4685 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .399
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ############################################################################
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  13.40    1.48   86.90