R version 4.4.1 (2024-06-14 ucrt) -- "Race for Your Life"
Copyright (C) 2024 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64

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'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

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> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 23  Using Orthogonal fixed effect vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .357
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> # 23.1 A simple example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .358
> 
> # 23.2 Constructing orthogonal vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359
> 
> # 23.3 A Binomial response example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2024 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.11/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> # Change contrasts if wish to avoid warning indicating that, by default,
> # specified contrasts for ordered predictors will be ignored by runMLwiN
> # (they will be fitted as "contr.treatment" regardless of this setting). To
> # enable specified contrasts, set allowcontrast to TRUE (this will be the
> # default in future package releases). NB at the end of this script, the
> # specification for contrasts is changed back.
> my_contrasts <- options("contrasts")$contrasts
> options(contrasts = c(unordered = "contr.treatment",
+                       ordered = "contr.treatment"))
> 
> # As an alternative to changing contrasts, can instead use C() to specify
> # contrasts for ordered predictors in formula object, e.g.:
> 
> # (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + C(lc, "contr.treatment") + urban +
> #                        (1 + urban | district),
> #                      D = "Binomial",
> #                      estoptions = list(EstM = 1),
> #                      data = bang1,
> #                      allowcontrast = TRUE))
> 
> data(bang1, package="R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1),
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2376.297480
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2329.737140
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2315.618096
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2348.619470
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2309.544641
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2310.365457
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2349.205756
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2327.681001
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2331.231358
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2319.247877
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2330.925172
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2316.529762
Adapting finished and took 1300 iterations
Adapting took 1300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2342.485507
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2327.535661
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2333.598976
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2325.301751
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2314.067030
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2324.739343
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2344.820810
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2320.161725
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2337.356611
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2346.133715

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.082268
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.160441
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.911534
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.933004
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.917615
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.237189
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.174201
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.515325
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.910751
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.951677
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.506904
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.070219
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.479693
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.194511
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.286172
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.275618
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.339297
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.417819
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.377833
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.958845
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.243933
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.611220
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2350.046794
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2348.565443
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.256604
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.558487
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.553881
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2293.486241
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2351.314339
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.260367
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.591472
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.154549
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.797452
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.531172
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.754172
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.517615
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.005877
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.391833
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.586354
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.860786
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.496474
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.038729
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.870695
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.509747
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.116528
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.056209
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.315319
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.870506
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.096127
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.721197
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.865600
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.746665
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.178325
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.940171
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.376615
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.421760
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.622785
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.305688
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.337285
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.357558
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.191902
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.537656
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.345624
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.136993
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2356.000632
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.824932
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.171189
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.380876
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.816654
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.694920
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.284380
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.939826
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.652421
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.666763
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.453875
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.658334
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.663361
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.113397
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.438082
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.003320
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.665984
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.926547
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2299.588300
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.058572
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.439428
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.983847
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.164519
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.002882
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.549191
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.409418
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.337239
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.796345
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.771897
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.739075
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.813443
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.365957
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.580218
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.609452
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.934251
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.227544
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2328.8
S.D.    =          14.409
S.E.M.  =         0.20377

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 8.28s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2328.815   2271.289   57.526     2386.341   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.72473     0.16083  -10.72   7.836e-27  ***    -2.05706    -1.43692    70 
age              -0.02700     0.00778   -3.47   0.0005233  ***    -0.04244    -0.01167   262 
lcOne_child       1.14050     0.16106    7.08   1.429e-12  ***     0.84436     1.46480   238 
lcTwo_children    1.37161     0.17138    8.00   1.213e-15  ***     1.03770     1.69819   181 
lcThree_plus      1.36622     0.17681    7.73   1.099e-14  ***     1.02367     1.72014   101 
urbanUrban        0.83065     0.19203    4.33   1.521e-05  ***     0.45912     1.21550   101 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.43398     0.14962      0.20802     0.78321   145 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.45879     0.19583     -0.90707    -0.15957    97 
var_urbanUrban              0.77209     0.35890      0.27457     1.65919    90 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> trajectories(mymodel)
dev.new(): using pdf(file="Rplots2.pdf")
> 
> ## Orthogonal update
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1,
+   mcmcOptions = list(orth = 1)), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2338.117395
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2321.967845
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2359.805663
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2329.313667
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2315.109539
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2322.945719
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2335.581866
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2346.586166
Adapting finished and took 900 iterations
Adapting took 900 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2316.683298
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2361.293300
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2322.888351
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2330.456554
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2318.221794
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2345.757641
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2327.441616
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2321.530844
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2331.348806
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2331.972528

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.000943
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.044485
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.377810
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.060752
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.289586
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.299289
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.687402
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.577215
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.658676
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.958088
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.440651
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.795867
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.559992
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.105058
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.682054
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.014320
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.020616
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.416292
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.616756
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.711653
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.548805
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.166840
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.802175
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.591861
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.355759
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.698507
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.611244
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.090991
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.651192
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.866770
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.431633
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.928593
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.351951
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.158911
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.622882
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.513883
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.742290
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.448866
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.630505
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.137357
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2351.795941
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.127507
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.871600
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.392868
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.101085
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.898123
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.012643
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.984659
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.906187
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.632100
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.779032
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.780230
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2350.374688
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.319191
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.110079
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.773541
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.440089
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.622870
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.511179
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.870074
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.779834
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2348.969442
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.053899
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.504328
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2306.893559
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2287.571566
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.705713
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.593797
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.083966
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.576529
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.678831
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.928926
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.037732
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.186250
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.026873
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.075441
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2300.474428
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.956278
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.922651
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.155630
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.097061
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.091789
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.375617
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.589270
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.748589
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.712748
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.097846
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.083721
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.828693
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.327472
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.566766
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.041402
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2350.318501
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2348.590929
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.190568
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.742330
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.237993
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.575301
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.868744
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.776117
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2328.4
S.D.    =          13.747
S.E.M.  =         0.19441

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 7.81s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2328.402   2270.947   57.455     2385.857   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept        -1.72744     0.16360  -10.56   4.609e-26  ***    -2.06247    -1.42385    337 
age              -0.02697     0.00790   -3.42   0.0006363  ***    -0.04298    -0.01196   1081 
lcOne_child       1.14541     0.16015    7.15   8.546e-13  ***     0.83174     1.46229    971 
lcTwo_children    1.37447     0.17873    7.69   1.468e-14  ***     1.03950     1.73418    926 
lcThree_plus      1.36694     0.18549    7.37   1.713e-13  ***     1.00278     1.73232    943 
urbanUrban        0.82615     0.18059    4.57   4.766e-06  ***     0.48922     1.18743    164 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.43322     0.13647      0.22563     0.75196   210 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.44815     0.17995     -0.86824    -0.15584   148 
var_urbanUrban              0.74577     0.31887      0.25380     1.48645   123 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> trajectories(mymodel)
dev.new(): using pdf(file="Rplots3.pdf")
> 
> # 23.4 A Poisson example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
> 
> ## Read mmmec data
> data(mmmec, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 0 + nation + nation:uvbi + offset(log(exp)) + (1 | region), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(EstM = 1,
+   mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000)), data = mmmec))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 3
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2027.554507
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2041.257653
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2013.579906
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2001.972003
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2006.448039
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2046.674644
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2038.791861
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2032.799357
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2026.884747
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2067.736356
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2020.854484
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2030.981396
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2019.537416
Adapting finished and took 1400 iterations
Adapting took 1400 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2014.548796
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2017.839274
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2035.387358
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2030.007735
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2032.042690
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2017.765732
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2009.990613
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2023.068739
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2023.247416
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2008.556933

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.448480
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.764780
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.197039
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.675809
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.054237
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.841731
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.851795
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.975603
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.741354
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.920328
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.973367
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.940429
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.541428
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.228405
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.333243
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.698165
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.314790
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.928373
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.562481
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.347690
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.102599
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.995843
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.114169
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.896238
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.116121
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.246382
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.112609
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.658768
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.639910
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.695004
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.202863
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.890853
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.963355
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.865911
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.572320
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.922157
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.660818
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.363701
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.072834
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.226070
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.610026
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.377139
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.914156
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.165765
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.862513
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.678800
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.687262
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.244180
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.073233
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.714004
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.157501
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.963429
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.769442
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.919439
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.325537
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.558661
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.088543
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.658484
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.588264
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.803888
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.386753
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.642253
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.288152
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.266885
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.881761
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.153459
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.790098
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.920643
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.802790
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.266520
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.813154
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.105361
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.143640
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.405898
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.313776
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.009694
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.520255
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.774671
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.584070
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.803907
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.405962
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.814480
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.335028
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.336282
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.919945
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.856158
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.902423
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.199421
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.189220
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.195380
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.292730
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.071897
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.893758
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.655533
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.433302
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.802474
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.748056
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.879142
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.574628
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.161357
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.283264
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.972179
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.068322
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.658080
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.750731
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.378656
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.228191
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.376300
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.771237
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.446436
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.890559
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.092022
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.420049
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.683152
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1990.461306
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.097271
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.523392
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.342301
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.876362
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.759045
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.133565
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.174846
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.583972
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.822827
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.684513
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.896130
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.694819
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.084356
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.064019
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.236871
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.622200
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.590551
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.075241
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.253161
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.858662
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.458536
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.068700
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.219191
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.268286
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.255774
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.208749
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.005626
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.778648
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.830777
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.443728
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.437046
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.963822
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.926526
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1992.388612
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.298313
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.054363
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.189666
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.930040
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.127506
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.733325
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.274038
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.594191
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.148749
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.751351
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.546404
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.153212
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.903856
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.283174
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.777613
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.068786
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.972880
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.829709
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.996567
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.859831
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.146261
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.464193
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.031456
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.512739
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.952137
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.678418
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.849942
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.714676
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.919122
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.575676
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1999.589438
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.820247
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.996087
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.436419
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.597529
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.164625
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.712524
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.039008
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.557326
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.207282
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.909778
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.744485
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.688010
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.798746
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.908814
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.287002
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.193164
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.695365
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.838319
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.002485
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.351483
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.453438
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.841212
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.183086
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.514045
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2059.387802
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.339491
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.802054
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.257208
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.902903
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.157359
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.078444
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.604991
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.669032
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.786783
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.420771
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.082491
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2066.524853
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.677184
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.160865
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.850242
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.385413
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.128697
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.722414
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.875556
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.548862
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.364118
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.843122
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.721423
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.241832
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.454904
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.311632
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.905747
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.695839
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2059.524324
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.143175
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.843591
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.781494
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.538396
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.219074
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.207299
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.035650
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.258265
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.836917
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.772540
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.571873
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.233354
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.287953
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.342654
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.515622
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.794647
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.615119
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.415110
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.604106
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.435779
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.550117
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.640963
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.123413
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.662248
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.615857
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.279242
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.653380
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.026968
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.825003
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.856719
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.938245
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.159948
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.249938
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.971657
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.465540
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.565739
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.648956
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.679000
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.707802
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.010459
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.714269
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.753705
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.007015
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.867349
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.744326
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.152730
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.156146
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.271897
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.639751
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.273774
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.604516
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.142712
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.106743
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.477528
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.280095
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.812541
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.386236
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.966687
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.663489
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.428565
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.314687
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.704604
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.525567
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2061.144607
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.451937
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.371997
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.213795
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.882392
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.964911
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.374825
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.140587
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.947647
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.686875
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.757293
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.317066
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.318974
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.683352
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.723464
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.284745
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.647574
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.306397
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.365078
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.762057
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.037449
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.939137
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.148047
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.563857
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.920357
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.056680
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.942513
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.436598
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.340751
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.731890
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.159163
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.902882
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.317684
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.082379
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.185492
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.025078
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.644064
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.460925
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.091742
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.118754
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.754409
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.771623
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.152389
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.776364
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.770321
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.134527
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.095249
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.068501
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.147227
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.709696
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.514527
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.295560
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.760141
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.033098
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.828180
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.707757
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.737296
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.284806
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.486030
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.605974
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.716677
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.098632
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.306113
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.356412
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.490905
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.845001
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.797009
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.413205
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.606033
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2059.991623
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.956482
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.065886
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.665302
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.334953
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.249241
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.366254
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.554609
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.703017
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.056619
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.558298
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.692573
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.311412
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.459899
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.030204
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.827072
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.096202
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2062.924747
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.423730
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.616864
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.812293
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.487723
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.708520
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.511541
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.354215
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.031062
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.703652
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.501063
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.688229
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.683565
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.651050
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.454145
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.139645
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.876222
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.857870
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.893385
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.106921
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.718643
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.097643
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.770121
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.729158
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.371240
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.529727
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.616635
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.088579
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.092263
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.304549
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.463988
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.615631
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.173041
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.700659
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.634437
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.268413
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.662437
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.712891
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.923690
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.277444
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.904191
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.064914
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.489790
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.655613
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.584041
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.897573
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.733447
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.245622
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.551256
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.112924
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.919464
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.319466
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.865461
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.862232
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.114213
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.174069
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.602087
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.380996
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.681023
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.801529
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.078133
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.097974
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.165176
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.125326
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.528624
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.577456
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.264953
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.332835
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1997.102610
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.995443
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.707465
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.523921
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.611017
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.006654
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.174684
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.117978
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.866629
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.948299
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.247330
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.684978
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.283831
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.871247
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.124456
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.461788
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.557329
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.081004
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.900354
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.849119
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.219565
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.862003
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.817787
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.451725
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.741236
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.401779
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.195457
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2067.906032
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.332836
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1995.767433
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.441116
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.465376
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.367815
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.916438
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.183116
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.532612
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.458235
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.899505
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.219858
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.066012
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.327846
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.532886
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.299289
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.311660
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.714544
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.841984
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.181820
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.677505
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.802632
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.124979
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.405433
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.578985
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.210974
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.623070
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.411248
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.475993
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.176430
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.588002
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.976240
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.723094
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.720478
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.978381
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.212236
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.776488
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.768182
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.926056
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.703985
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.054441
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.781853
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.833309
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.799745
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.526496
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.378066
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.823580
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.984154
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.578801
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.637939
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.396729
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.006477
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.554765
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.589707
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.273809
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.863220
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.863699
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.844150
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.211264
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.348851
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.638979
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.938500
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.839371
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.288020
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.627362
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.619362
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.558757
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.742466
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.313555
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.943384
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.862957
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.300547
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.227747
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.770756
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.020806
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.292376
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.836870
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.901791
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.374127
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.391398
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.679502
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.193881
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.027195
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.216066
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.990916
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.034835
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.592986
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.377908
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.709566
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.168555
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.024192
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.670622
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.790142
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.486321
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.547141
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.540029
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.724010
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.902502
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.303150
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.529635
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.278075
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.814112
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.148292
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.863514
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.706045
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.253285
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.501099
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.547856
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.785816
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.031508
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.149323
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.850151
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.625098
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1999.180571
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.952014
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.235947
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.845987
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.276932
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.305160
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.081174
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.758451
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.057571
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.865604
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.394664
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.281822
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.984764
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.163860
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.036939
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.605045
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.666115
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.372205
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.701576
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.525950
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2063.090650
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.921827
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.471426
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.161090
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.702412
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.304524
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.822118
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.787227
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.565770
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.436314
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.773670
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.085922
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.397985
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2062.756494
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.591377
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.671750
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.926856
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.517847
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.929084
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.005107
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.490983
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.285884
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.634235
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.472304
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.499775
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.853709
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.822449
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.547532
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.633382
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.208933
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.759233
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.340380
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.132061
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.107556
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.567338
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.169715
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.148831
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.867509
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.727129
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.219047
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.341521
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.506997
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.955951
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.653409
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.612168
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.702317
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.205279
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.647877
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.165009
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.623953
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2068.888615
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.459950
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.327041
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.449545
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.836616
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.531341
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.023249
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.151149
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.943366
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.870976
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.938279
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.591384
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.808773
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.757289
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.895552
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.771476
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.830773
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.821882
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.039463
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.917426
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.225666
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.755168
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.727099
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.449369
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.350844
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.012945
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.324368
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.786014
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.872591
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.263318
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.064333
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.849901
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.908700
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.923004
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.653760
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.430244
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.239649
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.490897
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.382593
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.532175
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.068747
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.145380
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.479513
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.580561
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.874413
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.275854
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.806404
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.185854
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.137588
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.444171
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.915142
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.475713
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.318399
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.893832
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.918511
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.920298
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.319340
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.413345
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.082680
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.932851
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.357029
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.361718
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.136540
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.743411
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.572694
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.117325
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2062.238959
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.506669
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.338209
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.547785
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.564683
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.169883
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.761616
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.112496
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.045158
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.352398
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.411732
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.845976
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.629211
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.731910
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.488058
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.862927
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.873645
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.220166
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.295223
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.824844
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.705666
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.766540
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.291211
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.352839
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.562466
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.400034
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.144626
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.303274
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.583888
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.561646
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.185014
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.033729
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.470779
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.740952
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.199235
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.917604
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.063105
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.583492
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.497557
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.960980
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.652718
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.804024
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.619947
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.813293
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.083193
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.477310
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.841148
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.908599
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.572561
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.297893
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.876199
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.479980
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.297857
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.889520
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.483616
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.879259
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.299553
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.355697
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.215971
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.951640
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.113885
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.579492
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.733216
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.551706
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.875962
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.316800
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.801129
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.253143
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.473924
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.393099
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.967276
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.387969
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.319630
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.937702
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.129107
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.081122
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.229224
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.771225
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.507313
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.467966
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.731562
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.133990
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.627804
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1998.873093
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.258887
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.626183
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.882396
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.825155
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.481321
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1994.084654
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.894989
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.846556
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.469103
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.961845
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.428071
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.219865
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.239865
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.304406
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.096908
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.069906
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.462505
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.412754
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.727949
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.596005
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.902246
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.697474
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.663058
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.708685
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.032496
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.315225
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.532175
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.835905
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.994633
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.175224
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.747664
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.845485
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.702029
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.731753
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.907101
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.882774
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.805577
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.146275
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.285041
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.502539
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.655907
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.951125
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.497837
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.311393
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.069573
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.584118
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.707570
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.136241
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.513620
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.247438
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.605542
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.095477
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.762203
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.874821
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.570481
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.713097
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.814210
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.234028
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.518821
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.265296
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.857801
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.481717
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.756737
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.795062
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.679994
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.433780
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.352206
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.799782
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.382911
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.051601
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.453693
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.068712
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.414387
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.337363
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.653930
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.450215
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.801640
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1999.360720
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.639851
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.238702
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.082553
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.427222
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.623500
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.076274
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.703262
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.947193
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.248526
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.264821
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.774341
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.565320
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.296553
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.619467
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.334714
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.501916
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.861818
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.249740
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.135274
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.157788
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.770839
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.164989
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.785591
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2060.818925
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.072100
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.246199
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.189633
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.232658
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.725803
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.557861
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.038470
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.017621
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.326280
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.343619
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.529160
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.888371
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.263416
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.365405
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.571035
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.498022
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.438013
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.592908
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.541032
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.622068
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.662432
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.810207
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.029618
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.877619
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.315869
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.057206
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.929099
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.329407
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.270552
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.848981
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.075836
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.143091
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.533102
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.787868
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.137120
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.486974
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.737607
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.378247
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.843691
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.710655
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.410201
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.150432
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.029615
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.284049
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.801732
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.732032
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.708254
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.968118
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.058983
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.242265
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.548373
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.808480
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.626794
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.084224
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.505513
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.185323
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.497492
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.051663
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.692876
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.062825
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.212492
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.090851
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.304281
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.154313
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.617585
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.680990
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.103338
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.658344
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.158099
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.618886
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.568736
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.730368
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.618988
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.430573
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.506462
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.936078
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.574233
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.191212
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.430445
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.211348
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.614336
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.578083
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.176767
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2073.306599
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.877837
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.487473
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.615594
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          2027.0
S.D.    =          12.447
S.E.M.  =        0.055665

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
region 78   1 4.538462  13         78            1      4.538462           13
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 9.58s 
Number of obs:  354 (from total 354)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2026.965   1965.015   61.951     2088.916   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 0 + nation + nation:uvbi + offset(log(exp)) + (1 | 
    region)
Level 2: region     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                            Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
nationBelgium             0.85786     0.64016    1.34      0.1802         -0.33511     2.16062     40 
nationW_Germany           0.47517     0.11485    4.14   3.517e-05  ***     0.25257     0.70089    181 
nationDenmark             0.45224     0.76337    0.59      0.5536         -0.89634     1.86710     18 
nationFrance             -0.59289     0.05533  -10.72   8.604e-27  ***    -0.70272    -0.48488   1367 
nationUK                  0.59900     0.18034    3.32   0.0008953  ***     0.21926     0.92708    100 
nationItaly               0.28128     0.11157    2.52      0.0117  *       0.07665     0.51091    362 
nationIreland            -0.53124     1.19584   -0.44      0.6569         -2.82591     1.75690     63 
nationLuxembourg          6.08531     8.87227    0.69      0.4928        -11.51868    20.57583      4 
nationNetherlands        -0.51103     1.00826   -0.51      0.6123         -2.61799     1.67137     12 
nationBelgium:uvbi        0.31662     0.21714    1.46      0.1448         -0.08526     0.76251     35 
nationW_Germany:uvbi     -0.01408     0.03142   -0.45       0.654         -0.07585     0.04798    227 
nationDenmark:uvbi       -0.05802     0.13471   -0.43      0.6667         -0.29637     0.19419     17 
nationFrance:uvbi         0.01275     0.01788    0.71      0.4758         -0.02218     0.04863   1537 
nationUK:uvbi             0.13842     0.03730    3.71   0.0002064  ***     0.05973     0.20602    108 
nationItaly:uvbi         -0.08706     0.01693   -5.14   2.705e-07  ***    -0.12263    -0.05501    389 
nationIreland:uvbi        0.00016     0.24034    0.00      0.9995         -0.45417     0.46501     63 
nationLuxembourg:uvbi     2.65079     3.86232    0.69      0.4925         -4.97572     8.97258      4 
nationNetherlands:uvbi   -0.15175     0.24062   -0.63      0.5283         -0.65780     0.36645     13 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the region level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.03709     0.00909      0.02252     0.05793   2702 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "FP_nationBelgium", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 5000, "beta_1")
> 
> ## Orthogonal update
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 0 + nation + nation:uvbi + offset(log(exp)) + (1 | region), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(EstM = 1,
+   mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000), mcmcOptions = list(orth = 1)), data = mmmec))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 3
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2119.408682
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2130.493251
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2121.415133
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2094.200185
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2048.472666
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2042.851395
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2020.345036
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2025.191874
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2019.390326
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2034.202485
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2014.718406
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2023.022848
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2031.575264
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2029.348016
Adapting finished and took 1500 iterations
Adapting took 1500 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2030.816563
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2006.033555
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2014.824866
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2002.516717
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2019.981434
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2056.271713
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2037.444164
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2033.009001
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2043.175891
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2020.076838

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.197609
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.725721
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.337794
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.305169
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.553191
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.156039
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.515818
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.101918
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.562851
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.762049
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.144168
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.716832
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.522645
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.395991
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.393464
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.026313
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.491080
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.529364
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.365957
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.766480
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.022793
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.841400
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.816746
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.172454
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.812105
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.088489
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.848289
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.409047
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.671582
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.041469
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.608952
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.601459
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.540803
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.261928
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.345472
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.279600
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.443512
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.338452
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.167395
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.933758
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.217033
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.271948
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.872177
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.204957
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.732687
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.409559
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.299939
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.950236
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.194095
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.901513
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.381478
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.908769
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.507138
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.124763
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.511024
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.640816
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.868758
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.904556
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.153841
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.216863
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.725766
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.846888
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.309879
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.346826
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.856429
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.179014
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.537844
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.505256
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.030142
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.617590
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.087860
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.454823
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.884179
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.855965
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.967182
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.377347
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.018125
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.146910
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.095650
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.025110
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.608900
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.398407
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.044497
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.997193
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.272742
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.577056
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.113176
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.277880
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.519326
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.269776
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.556669
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.870279
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.858401
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.229155
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.606250
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.771391
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.384321
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.072215
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.057470
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.121960
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.244380
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.935358
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.029310
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.039211
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.959141
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.161615
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.518635
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.709577
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.677017
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.659209
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.053108
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.035153
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.140545
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.139157
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.900373
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.900541
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.456588
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.373917
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.342691
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.807658
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.050315
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.908638
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.852833
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.586474
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.962352
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.623177
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.333015
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.723820
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.118930
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.845088
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.619385
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.736635
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.869964
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.949861
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.498735
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.774870
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.055848
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.541829
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.224573
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.857546
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.316718
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.521045
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.433693
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.176464
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.046631
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.096201
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.097309
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.299659
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.913397
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.273591
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.591238
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.253773
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2056.925303
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.673409
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.820258
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.267805
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.319885
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.947607
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.616800
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.968292
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.348454
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.107039
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.755687
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.090268
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.397922
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.130785
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.919590
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.504757
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.532038
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.187612
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.278867
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.283674
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.208784
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.309602
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.412367
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.751357
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.154954
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.871152
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.323158
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.232251
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.585811
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.042215
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.348314
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.987964
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.219753
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.755551
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.489061
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.135147
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.329166
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.507953
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.855547
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.477149
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.204853
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.844907
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.524170
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.531619
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.053362
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.902674
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.183406
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.395224
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.249400
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.667352
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.313269
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.945603
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.548211
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.848709
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.201347
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.338826
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.590265
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.632839
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.532735
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.720346
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.368551
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.483750
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.277553
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.175822
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.030549
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.419733
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.256024
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.682526
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.041605
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.700996
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.925117
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.551815
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.119042
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.515558
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.026839
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.307620
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.752688
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.025046
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.911088
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.592257
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.096219
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.742893
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.792208
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.934354
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.006285
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.680831
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.983166
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.144548
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.901121
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.841551
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.546842
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.042480
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.028020
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.482032
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.048412
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.288008
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.209481
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.791902
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.420484
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.440100
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2061.317004
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.073450
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.102286
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.682524
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.186815
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.259629
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1997.390710
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.047815
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.400976
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.694734
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.788232
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.069305
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.933992
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.955579
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.887361
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.887760
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.158174
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.522898
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.898325
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.386925
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.001639
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.126887
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.329875
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.029682
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.612129
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.643326
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.597105
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.739122
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.294837
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.235453
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.809123
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.123659
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.173077
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.877042
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.388816
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.880864
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.402496
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.066821
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.464458
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.202053
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.310102
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.330295
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.064354
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.888105
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.060523
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.923852
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.093611
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.650521
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.153722
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.017704
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.553179
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.113385
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.455905
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.361737
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.854684
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.993850
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.906669
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.519149
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.691058
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.046311
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.159339
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.180917
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.409980
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.459820
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.815437
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.034408
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.183570
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.175192
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.772532
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.558849
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.378022
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.260642
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.667703
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.495907
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.465657
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.624545
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.553061
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.032406
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.316441
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.985028
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.277232
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.976290
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.756438
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.782350
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.798347
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.537337
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.738310
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.851737
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.668120
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.132988
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.174190
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.837299
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.719746
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.051109
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.650180
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.839893
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.928161
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.188519
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.428657
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.698664
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.494144
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.806501
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.525844
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.427667
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.278206
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.647040
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.522872
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.710629
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.581431
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.838851
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.999124
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.507960
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.325635
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.455383
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.461242
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.176857
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.281635
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.515391
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.319066
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.565918
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.382392
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.840101
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.039026
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.426118
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.634218
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.130256
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.296292
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.671337
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.797607
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.303026
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.788716
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.192844
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2050.125257
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.139808
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.629477
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.299291
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.415450
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.190979
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.321546
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.029284
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.216113
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.843062
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.921958
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.465676
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.513698
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.318718
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.238336
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.829689
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.007309
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.217899
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.119467
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.554484
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.708663
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.297042
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.631337
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.550289
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.989821
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2061.652734
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.798411
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.494384
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.203074
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.641930
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.778726
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.537809
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.371461
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.378200
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.713918
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.987523
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.883838
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.412612
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.833540
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.879392
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.419080
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.958044
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.917904
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.719653
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.478821
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.870756
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.297259
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.332032
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.166280
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.842000
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.711757
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.984137
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.872990
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.915916
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.378988
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.457121
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.931417
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.954538
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.108916
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.049249
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.625667
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.702452
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.142386
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.033645
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.996908
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.506174
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1998.536153
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.100156
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.270418
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.082984
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.837450
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2056.202533
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.621437
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.251288
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.410147
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.460224
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.485714
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.757493
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.740873
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.831805
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.093125
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.262500
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.352936
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.016946
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.078269
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.103752
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.896945
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.221570
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.833514
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.234010
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.508255
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.475242
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.976463
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.509116
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.581439
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.405096
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.325201
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.163796
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.814478
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.772859
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.000530
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.887222
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.587311
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.341575
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.368913
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.348787
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.936925
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.117830
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1991.691926
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.957970
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.577077
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.207648
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.244359
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.607185
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.356427
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.782430
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.643048
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.643565
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.279450
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.850812
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.525315
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.073341
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.011244
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.391087
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.237655
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.185365
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.122208
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.886172
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.733525
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.158633
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.072483
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.323506
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.579809
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.975468
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.906628
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.863592
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.016433
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.973698
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.619924
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.980043
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.362750
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.108176
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.664634
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.056587
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.064436
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.965270
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.463226
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.534123
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.312428
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.375655
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.636766
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.046382
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.655474
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.877891
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.198197
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.165990
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.059962
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.100878
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.474159
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.553799
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.786158
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.442471
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.547610
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.642988
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.933106
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.612782
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.461986
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.825092
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.715641
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.039523
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.097335
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.590821
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.250330
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.096819
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.651381
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.422386
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.143784
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.556998
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.833925
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.172190
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.187656
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.888787
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.001589
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.313486
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.948878
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.991395
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.459262
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.896688
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.210638
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.332292
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.934651
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.269941
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2058.154442
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.408860
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.518151
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.064752
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.500883
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.933916
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.872329
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.342623
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.135474
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.299807
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.786972
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.844080
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.754027
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.665343
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2054.895530
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.091992
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.050823
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.322362
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.437601
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.825337
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.029624
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.688126
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.207902
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.647613
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.558507
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.714427
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.969780
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.883424
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.095223
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.003947
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.126118
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.386985
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.758693
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.565528
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.471918
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.215334
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.612602
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.244760
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.230300
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.921759
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.507917
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.717386
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.934525
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.463229
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.545666
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.774471
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.216914
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.743936
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.526409
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.804838
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.236009
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.176214
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.948382
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.742128
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.663246
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.837223
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.766455
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.139922
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.806316
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.127566
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.440566
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.794893
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.809760
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.234035
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.316071
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.690424
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.384874
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.251895
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.561388
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2003.286009
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.454394
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.873341
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.923481
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.285952
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.215552
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.615628
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.041092
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.335798
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.567009
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.344072
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.805148
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2065.911066
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.748687
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.790052
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.392551
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.840408
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.651039
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.203752
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.162289
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.899328
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.272893
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.133353
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.910970
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.668042
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.602031
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.567662
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.826167
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.892910
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.437660
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.304123
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.411436
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.516898
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.442053
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.132689
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.002467
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.509145
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.268230
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.806309
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.888060
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.210186
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.183300
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.711177
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.590024
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.707200
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.346941
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.124491
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2005.554540
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.692426
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.485486
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.386063
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.404578
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.241668
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.638545
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.249907
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.228639
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.916372
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.728918
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.155919
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.781903
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.777664
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.112985
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.543654
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.543863
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.621856
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.995045
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.961561
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.250078
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.847095
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.712559
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.558260
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.531753
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.539432
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2002.745555
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.492022
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.742131
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.804596
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.060104
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.724774
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.374630
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2057.786763
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.878331
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.349028
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.230308
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.708615
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.887650
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.384089
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.879072
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.549720
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.268618
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.380292
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.753287
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.258219
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.992462
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.330565
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.091143
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.444005
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.304545
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.952415
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2075.194015
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.573526
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2009.333792
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.143192
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.066672
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.674482
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.955581
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.837388
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.254172
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.122077
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.497936
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.134722
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.609892
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.112608
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.884544
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.339752
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.812981
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.747638
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.079108
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.424061
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.827626
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.280844
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.639716
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.475299
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.781203
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.869171
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.922835
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.755373
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.355648
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1997.774138
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.848795
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1999.394890
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.043175
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.756970
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.715220
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.328335
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.632563
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.936961
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.045111
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.827157
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.958418
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.822968
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.156695
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.898440
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.153396
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1999.465041
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.681176
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.740779
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.188946
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.593826
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.363840
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.733491
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.112156
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2011.745785
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.016435
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.591972
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.167102
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.951471
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.121637
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.208428
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.770169
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.281877
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.535441
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.466470
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.817348
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.392482
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.958351
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.403825
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.694958
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2055.559333
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.855375
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.256905
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.684507
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.091320
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.669319
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.750037
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.171526
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.851475
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.414673
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.658808
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.790279
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.020653
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.587979
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.797102
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.345550
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.466033
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.279318
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.739819
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.757356
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.085194
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.850221
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.793139
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.418480
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.870710
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.915664
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.174266
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.954900
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.934770
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.199983
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.986348
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.189899
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.483021
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.001946
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.040678
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.511000
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.599745
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.898332
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.908886
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.688034
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.179470
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.910642
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.694134
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.972223
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2049.545902
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2043.449991
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.458453
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.672595
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.080301
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.717773
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.695751
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.193917
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.766419
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.528811
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.847272
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.373825
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.577122
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.760958
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.891545
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.187268
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.349254
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.805339
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.275009
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.402160
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2041.711559
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.087914
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.224443
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.316636
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.559270
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.495228
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.645084
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.738746
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.301008
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.446631
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.243441
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.113229
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.907017
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2027.351287
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.785908
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.901110
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.245298
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.574834
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.023806
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.927366
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.216170
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2046.368722
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2059.069358
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.987221
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.090789
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2060.729609
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.302096
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2047.658457
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.981271
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.759063
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2064.403063
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.347891
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.995888
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.331928
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.508632
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.357284
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.042054
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.543384
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.822279
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2029.704484
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.593065
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.927347
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.988126
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.788926
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2021.395777
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.210536
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2053.359645
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.013211
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.433046
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.669881
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.630217
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2010.097759
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2034.672745
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.766552
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.949999
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2037.998057
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.927533
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2006.734667
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2051.133484
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2035.723120
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.813008
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.664727
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2004.724640
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.699672
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1996.590977
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.916443
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2038.479291
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.639030
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.036919
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.623404
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2031.028463
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2048.483972
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.943529
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.590870
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2024.658297
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2045.727299
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2018.656429
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.235384
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.984444
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.507086
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.998995
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.484956
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.875031
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.960375
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.200710
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.702540
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2013.640186
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2040.237050
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.659241
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 1997.837629
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2025.019885
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.183936
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2017.905991
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2039.732850
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.551474
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2000.931265
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.558425
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2012.124675
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.483582
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2042.830699
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2019.639293
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.239411
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.175982
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2033.911070
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2008.343699
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2022.700514
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2052.639031
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2020.741730
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.927702
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2007.183538
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2030.001021
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2028.316294
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2014.920262
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2026.246368
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.524937
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2036.771256
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2023.712546
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2015.169753
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2001.671889
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2016.298350
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2044.323707
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2056.607438
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 2032.710690
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          2027.8
S.D.    =          12.641
S.E.M.  =        0.056532

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
region 78   1 4.538462  13         78            1      4.538462           13
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 9.14s 
Number of obs:  354 (from total 354)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2027.787   1964.600   63.188     2090.975   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 0 + nation + nation:uvbi + offset(log(exp)) + (1 | 
    region)
Level 2: region     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                            Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
nationBelgium             0.69615     0.74129    0.94      0.3477         -0.76287     2.15669   4989 
nationW_Germany           0.48770     0.12057    4.05    5.23e-05  ***     0.25931     0.72294    688 
nationDenmark             0.32311     0.88176    0.37       0.714         -1.42235     2.02290   4565 
nationFrance             -0.59463     0.05400  -11.01   3.325e-28  ***    -0.70352    -0.49111   1819 
nationUK                  0.61434     0.21087    2.91    0.003576  **      0.19285     1.02368    762 
nationItaly               0.28011     0.10735    2.61    0.009071  **      0.06601     0.48781   1181 
nationIreland            -0.48224     1.30868   -0.37      0.7125         -3.01877     2.12072   6516 
nationLuxembourg         17.47121    16.21958    1.08      0.2814        -11.12882    52.56874   2319 
nationNetherlands        -0.34889     0.93457   -0.37      0.7089         -2.18004     1.52978   2126 
nationBelgium:uvbi        0.26261     0.25068    1.05      0.2948         -0.23113     0.75639   5070 
nationW_Germany:uvbi     -0.01266     0.03231   -0.39      0.6951         -0.07589     0.04984   1031 
nationDenmark:uvbi       -0.08233     0.15519   -0.53      0.5958         -0.38783     0.21784   4620 
nationFrance:uvbi         0.01275     0.01838    0.69      0.4878         -0.02336     0.04866   1711 
nationUK:uvbi             0.14249     0.04333    3.29    0.001007  **      0.05571     0.22618    871 
nationItaly:uvbi         -0.08732     0.01589   -5.49   3.912e-08  ***    -0.11828    -0.05589   1454 
nationIreland:uvbi        0.01141     0.26379    0.04      0.9655         -0.49319     0.53881   6371 
nationLuxembourg:uvbi     7.62210     7.08305    1.08      0.2819         -4.85573    22.96136   2279 
nationNetherlands:uvbi   -0.11345     0.22462   -0.51      0.6135         -0.55407     0.33850   2121 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the region level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.03719     0.00919      0.02251     0.05843   3456 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "FP_nationBelgium", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 100, "beta_1")
> 
> # 23.5 An Ordered multinomial example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .368
> 
> ## Read alevchem data
> data(alevchem, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> # Note: Establishment codes on their own do not uniquely identify schools.
> # Schools are instead uniquely identified by LEA code, establishment ID
> # combination. Thus, here we generated a unique school ID.
> alevchem$school <- as.numeric(factor(paste0(alevchem$lea, alevchem$estab)))
> 
> alevchem$gcseav <- alevchem$gcse_tot/alevchem$gcse_no - 6
> 
> ## MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school),
+   D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5789.899888
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5798.591468
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5782.197552
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5803.659812
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5852.144273
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5791.659275
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5846.574118
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5817.834445
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5787.698398
Adapting finished and took 1000 iterations
Adapting took 1000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5847.106255
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5817.575825
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5839.723143
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5827.648428
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5862.546594
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5819.037013
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5826.427682
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5803.642416
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5813.180007
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5822.102395

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.689702
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.720884
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.423730
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5857.263805
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.008912
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5864.737607
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.075239
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5857.578030
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.085613
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.922313
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.111919
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.614336
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.173689
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.049614
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.183198
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.093143
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.665909
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.944063
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.276479
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.566510
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.812774
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.548007
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.415872
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.842697
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.984343
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.912804
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.489264
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.903353
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.179311
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.492211
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.637259
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.953520
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.093315
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.582846
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.851843
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.011475
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.926824
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.713320
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.287579
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.099476
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.033039
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.719926
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.709919
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.270697
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.268104
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.740863
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.847067
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.065879
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.127377
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.576368
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5831.921271
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.884577
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5845.209646
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.313031
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.386810
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.851990
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.180793
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.855672
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5844.079044
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.991640
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.105264
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.736757
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.469384
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.590276
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.796428
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.984615
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.141861
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.298636
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.745296
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.974337
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.814568
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.748841
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.181678
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.017360
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.032513
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.592127
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5862.170307
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.174816
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.906803
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.778873
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5860.584377
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.084573
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.642795
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.375436
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.706617
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.348809
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.155352
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.237008
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5831.664787
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5845.382166
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.520355
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.706739
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.311568
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.733066
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.447959
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.935271
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5850.942926
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.888938
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.398943
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.484267
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          5814.8
S.D.    =          23.134
S.E.M.  =         0.32717

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
         N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 220   1 9.845455  94        220            1      9.845455           94
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 15.03s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
5814.819   5692.565   122.253    5937.072   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school)
Level 2: school     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.93053     0.11114  -17.37    1.387e-67  ***    -2.15321    -1.72481    84 
Intercept_E          -0.77288     0.10381   -7.45    9.682e-14  ***    -0.97876    -0.57760    64 
Intercept_D           0.29717     0.10367    2.87      0.00415  **      0.09871     0.49680    59 
Intercept_C           1.55949     0.11150   13.99    1.881e-44  ***     1.34153     1.77609    78 
Intercept_B           3.36283     0.13169   25.54   7.768e-144  ***     3.09880     3.61510    90 
gcseav_12345         -2.26915     0.07218  -31.44   6.215e-217  ***    -2.41140    -2.12468   280 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.45817     0.04577  -10.01    1.375e-23  ***    -0.54707    -0.36460   383 
genderfemale_12345    0.74993     0.09208    8.14      3.8e-16  ***     0.57221     0.93418   315 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                        Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept_12345   0.64392     0.13723      0.41543     0.96019   198 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> trajectories(mymodel)
dev.new(): using pdf(file="Rplots4.pdf")
> 
> ## Orthogonal update
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school),
+   D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(orth = 1)), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5836.587216
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5788.828013
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5814.774332
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5808.843288
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5799.055078
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5800.432599
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5804.148552
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5837.776516
Adapting finished and took 900 iterations
Adapting took 900 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5817.089996
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5837.185339
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5826.879975
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5810.923592
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5814.929137
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5777.445029
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5816.389447
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5815.671099
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5793.539187
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5779.092678

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.035279
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.518325
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.375928
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5836.752142
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.893029
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.260208
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.998259
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.658998
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5866.086625
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5869.057996
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.630741
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.350846
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5861.981205
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.451238
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.949114
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.842213
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.997165
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.052706
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.744262
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.542324
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.945486
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.808405
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.299693
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.303917
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.638234
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.231794
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.892194
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.788331
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.975201
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5840.822081
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.029237
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.462862
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.791074
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.464259
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.581616
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5836.429248
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.797046
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.267487
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.803326
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.566431
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.572465
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5853.431458
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.035385
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.825911
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.461334
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.284182
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.578508
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.316146
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5845.637226
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.723594
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.191974
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5868.979742
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.579472
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.366331
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.835263
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.944735
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5853.461317
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.446113
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.588435
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.132516
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.311753
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.378148
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.463383
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.405012
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.839427
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.214683
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.403212
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.599161
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.093856
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.172353
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5847.969931
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5847.568807
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.901325
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.533102
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.935925
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.839271
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.323713
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.672947
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.458862
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.854232
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5853.001475
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.650578
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.125566
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.427440
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.851986
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.491038
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.496898
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.339745
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.676589
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.296564
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.154248
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5836.628538
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.541675
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.214544
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.983470
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.286829
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5836.869095
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.480994
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.176888
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.014242
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          5814.2
S.D.    =          22.997
S.E.M.  =         0.32523

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
         N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 220   1 9.845455  94        220            1      9.845455           94
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 14.89s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
5814.176   5692.966   121.210    5935.386   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school)
Level 2: school     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.91621     0.10858  -17.65    1.059e-69  ***    -2.13989    -1.71018   274 
Intercept_E          -0.75823     0.09767   -7.76    8.297e-15  ***    -0.95531    -0.56917   197 
Intercept_D           0.30837     0.09787    3.15     0.001629  **      0.11017     0.50395   148 
Intercept_C           1.57217     0.10194   15.42    1.146e-53  ***     1.37769     1.77769   207 
Intercept_B           3.37416     0.12778   26.41     1.2e-153  ***     3.13491     3.63448   285 
gcseav_12345         -2.26449     0.07281  -31.10   2.338e-212  ***    -2.40763    -2.12276   354 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.45689     0.04508  -10.13    3.894e-24  ***    -0.54387    -0.36692   858 
genderfemale_12345    0.74172     0.09471    7.83    4.811e-15  ***     0.55680     0.92907   704 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                        Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept_12345   0.63812     0.13295      0.41353     0.92288   197 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> trajectories(mymodel)
dev.new(): using pdf(file="Rplots5.pdf")
> 
> # 23.6 The WinBUGS interface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372
> 
> ## Read bang1 data
> data(bang1, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Orthogonal update (WinBUGS)
> 
> mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1,
+   mcmcOptions = list(orth = 1), show.file = TRUE), BUGO = c(version = 4, n.chains = 1, debug = FALSE, seed = 1,
+   OpenBugs = TRUE), data = bang1)
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed

Loading required namespace: R2OpenBUGS
> 
> summary(mymodel)

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

                     Mean        SD  Naive SE Time-series SE
beta[1]          -1.71536  0.161734 0.0022873      0.0044934
beta[2]          -0.02649  0.008121 0.0001149      0.0001302
beta[3]           1.12732  0.158402 0.0022401      0.0024430
beta[4]           1.36155  0.179065 0.0025324      0.0028316
beta[5]           1.35437  0.184458 0.0026086      0.0029479
beta[6]           0.82170  0.174343 0.0024656      0.0055564
deviance       2329.46200 14.070343 0.1989847      0.3620090
sigma2.u2[1,1]    0.42703  0.142975 0.0020220      0.0051807
sigma2.u2[1,2]   -0.43759  0.186865 0.0026427      0.0074333
sigma2.u2[2,1]   -0.43759  0.186865 0.0026427      0.0074333
sigma2.u2[2,2]    0.72420  0.335503 0.0047447      0.0158839
u2[1,1]          -0.94366  0.340540 0.0048160      0.0081560
u2[1,2]           0.38814  0.425882 0.0060229      0.0100551
u2[10,1]         -0.56522  0.500586 0.0070794      0.0101459
u2[10,2]          0.57713  0.740004 0.0104652      0.0156596
u2[11,1]         -1.05152  0.512090 0.0072421      0.0130451
u2[11,2]          1.07677  0.783401 0.0110790      0.0223468
u2[12,1]          0.00643  0.385033 0.0054452      0.0071093
u2[12,2]         -0.20267  0.585760 0.0082839      0.0105261
u2[13,1]          0.29876  0.422823 0.0059796      0.0067663
u2[13,2]         -0.42004  0.605488 0.0085629      0.0112669
u2[14,1]          0.01217  0.411010 0.0058126      0.0093143
u2[14,2]          0.63223  0.473303 0.0066935      0.0108836
u2[15,1]          0.10628  0.435289 0.0061559      0.0071481
u2[15,2]         -0.28326  0.605923 0.0085690      0.0098839
u2[16,1]          0.61025  0.411166 0.0058148      0.0078694
u2[16,2]         -0.39620  0.648360 0.0091692      0.0117481
u2[17,1]         -0.18243  0.376443 0.0053237      0.0072356
u2[17,2]          0.17595  0.648106 0.0091656      0.0117182
u2[18,1]         -0.19864  0.345469 0.0048857      0.0065270
u2[18,2]          0.26837  0.501481 0.0070920      0.0086584
u2[19,1]         -0.01314  0.387738 0.0054834      0.0070158
u2[19,2]          0.22558  0.603563 0.0085357      0.0106860
u2[2,1]          -0.04015  0.391166 0.0055319      0.0065735
u2[2,2]           0.04961  0.637373 0.0090138      0.0093666
u2[20,1]          0.27481  0.443486 0.0062718      0.0071471
u2[20,2]         -0.26746  0.691054 0.0097730      0.0112430
u2[21,1]          0.63139  0.492235 0.0069613      0.0100450
u2[21,2]         -1.14496  0.716703 0.0101357      0.0206957
u2[22,1]         -0.49936  0.406931 0.0057549      0.0076906
u2[22,2]          0.49062  0.684360 0.0096783      0.0133106
u2[23,1]         -0.21627  0.435869 0.0061641      0.0073150
u2[23,2]          0.20854  0.676372 0.0095653      0.0108249
u2[24,1]         -0.70622  0.506295 0.0071601      0.0102614
u2[24,2]          0.73393  0.748783 0.0105894      0.0172118
u2[25,1]          0.31356  0.285333 0.0040352      0.0055322
u2[25,2]         -0.37501  0.452593 0.0064006      0.0083738
u2[26,1]          0.02325  0.441450 0.0062430      0.0075688
u2[26,2]         -0.03476  0.683642 0.0096682      0.0120215
u2[27,1]         -0.61861  0.376997 0.0053315      0.0096155
u2[27,2]          0.56364  0.603083 0.0085289      0.0134789
u2[28,1]         -0.32844  0.318235 0.0045005      0.0063267
u2[28,2]          0.06427  0.559449 0.0079118      0.0105249
u2[29,1]         -0.33038  0.397029 0.0056148      0.0091530
u2[29,2]          0.48449  0.591053 0.0083588      0.0124970
u2[3,1]          -0.02004  0.658880 0.0093180      0.0099827
u2[3,2]           0.25869  0.845490 0.0119570      0.0152639
u2[30,1]          0.34393  0.300293 0.0042468      0.0062545
u2[30,2]          0.07712  0.486517 0.0068804      0.0106356
u2[31,1]          0.38617  0.339474 0.0048009      0.0061745
u2[31,2]         -0.38261  0.555622 0.0078577      0.0087413
u2[32,1]         -0.51221  0.394206 0.0055749      0.0075416
u2[32,2]          0.50502  0.665438 0.0094107      0.0117419
u2[33,1]         -0.43200  0.518121 0.0073273      0.0093640
u2[33,2]          0.59529  0.680760 0.0096274      0.0124428
u2[34,1]          1.24103  0.392184 0.0055463      0.0095926
u2[34,2]         -1.43906  0.615022 0.0086977      0.0182101
u2[35,1]          0.29921  0.344243 0.0048683      0.0066649
u2[35,2]         -0.21783  0.489221 0.0069186      0.0079296
u2[36,1]         -0.04661  0.426562 0.0060325      0.0071181
u2[36,2]         -0.06474  0.633614 0.0089607      0.0098741
u2[37,1]          0.45368  0.438922 0.0062073      0.0071112
u2[37,2]         -0.46493  0.686436 0.0097077      0.0115893
u2[38,1]         -0.56687  0.554315 0.0078392      0.0114217
u2[38,2]          0.65445  0.714030 0.0100979      0.0155652
u2[39,1]          0.63178  0.372450 0.0052672      0.0068496
u2[39,2]         -0.68464  0.636287 0.0089985      0.0126864
u2[4,1]          -0.26372  0.412924 0.0058396      0.0086122
u2[4,2]           0.82683  0.616135 0.0087135      0.0166908
u2[40,1]          0.19078  0.446995 0.0063215      0.0074592
u2[40,2]         -0.15405  0.548976 0.0077637      0.0102116
u2[41,1]          0.60251  0.368200 0.0052071      0.0062776
u2[41,2]         -0.90751  0.641153 0.0090673      0.0155519
u2[42,1]          0.80129  0.558132 0.0078932      0.0111667
u2[42,2]         -1.13611  0.777812 0.0109999      0.0190304
u2[43,1]          0.63136  0.348928 0.0049346      0.0066174
u2[43,2]         -0.45742  0.501392 0.0070908      0.0090960
u2[44,1]         -0.35808  0.379834 0.0053717      0.0072485
u2[44,2]          0.36342  0.642748 0.0090898      0.0110409
u2[45,1]         -0.34447  0.338934 0.0047932      0.0072422
u2[45,2]          0.60071  0.570568 0.0080690      0.0120636
u2[46,1]          0.62520  0.244175 0.0034532      0.0054833
u2[46,2]         -0.40665  0.469655 0.0066419      0.0095306
u2[47,1]          0.27613  0.473951 0.0067027      0.0077334
u2[47,2]         -0.20949  0.647602 0.0091585      0.0099941
u2[48,1]          0.58523  0.359165 0.0050794      0.0069375
u2[48,2]         -0.47142  0.505377 0.0071471      0.0096473
u2[49,1]         -0.32747  0.588661 0.0083249      0.0101352
u2[49,2]          0.34109  0.792894 0.0112132      0.0137595
u2[5,1]           0.06696  0.318747 0.0045078      0.0060700
u2[5,2]          -0.06769  0.574859 0.0081297      0.0097852
u2[50,1]          0.11122  0.443565 0.0062730      0.0081180
u2[50,2]          0.28085  0.664188 0.0093930      0.0130539
u2[51,1]         -0.03530  0.386184 0.0054615      0.0068937
u2[51,2]          0.11703  0.528179 0.0074696      0.0091232
u2[52,1]          0.64539  0.304763 0.0043100      0.0067919
u2[52,2]         -1.16396  0.505919 0.0071548      0.0143230
u2[53,1]          0.02072  0.641523 0.0090725      0.0104291
u2[53,2]         -0.18465  0.748950 0.0105918      0.0129186
u2[54,1]         -0.00434  0.653347 0.0092397      0.0120086
u2[54,2]         -0.37879  0.817465 0.0115607      0.0161686
u2[55,1]          0.70826  0.368331 0.0052090      0.0075428
u2[55,2]         -0.42123  0.512142 0.0072428      0.0104525
u2[56,1]         -0.45532  0.412563 0.0058345      0.0079540
u2[56,2]          0.22502  0.628381 0.0088866      0.0131097
u2[57,1]          0.72396  0.391789 0.0055407      0.0076431
u2[57,2]         -1.06663  0.577100 0.0081614      0.0149209
u2[58,1]         -0.60962  0.498224 0.0070460      0.0094202
u2[58,2]          0.62640  0.746242 0.0105535      0.0157016
u2[59,1]         -0.43468  0.413631 0.0058496      0.0082196
u2[59,2]          0.18814  0.582930 0.0082439      0.0111607
u2[6,1]          -0.39071  0.294433 0.0041639      0.0063452
u2[6,2]           0.65223  0.529572 0.0074893      0.0112421
u2[60,1]         -0.57169  0.366009 0.0051762      0.0075210
u2[60,2]          0.20456  0.552507 0.0078136      0.0115858
u2[7,1]          -0.19539  0.412853 0.0058386      0.0070034
u2[7,2]           0.19977  0.674062 0.0095327      0.0108700
u2[8,1]           0.05197  0.333425 0.0047153      0.0061793
u2[8,2]           0.17739  0.595184 0.0084172      0.0118240
u2[9,1]          -0.38422  0.407444 0.0057621      0.0074358
u2[9,2]           0.45620  0.626643 0.0088621      0.0112592

2. Quantiles for each variable:

                     2.5%        25%        50%        75%      97.5%
beta[1]          -2.03103   -1.82600 -1.715e+00   -1.60500 -1.396e+00
beta[2]          -0.04252   -0.03188 -2.662e-02   -0.02086 -1.067e-02
beta[3]           0.81657    1.02000  1.127e+00    1.23325  1.438e+00
beta[4]           1.01800    1.24100  1.360e+00    1.48200  1.716e+00
beta[5]           0.99760    1.23000  1.352e+00    1.48025  1.721e+00
beta[6]           0.48939    0.70687  8.182e-01    0.93785  1.173e+00
deviance       2303.00000 2320.00000  2.329e+03 2339.00000  2.358e+03
sigma2.u2[1,1]    0.20770    0.32667  4.083e-01    0.50450  7.678e-01
sigma2.u2[1,2]   -0.88170   -0.53855 -4.090e-01   -0.30480 -1.592e-01
sigma2.u2[2,1]   -0.88170   -0.53855 -4.090e-01   -0.30480 -1.592e-01
sigma2.u2[2,2]    0.27329    0.48520  6.638e-01    0.89110  1.548e+00
u2[1,1]          -1.65817   -1.16100 -9.382e-01   -0.71798 -3.096e-01
u2[1,2]          -0.45311    0.10795  3.918e-01    0.67360  1.210e+00
u2[10,1]         -1.59105   -0.88302 -5.515e-01   -0.23065  3.724e-01
u2[10,2]         -0.81073    0.08316  5.418e-01    1.03150  2.112e+00
u2[11,1]         -2.12500   -1.37125 -1.016e+00   -0.69455 -1.424e-01
u2[11,2]         -0.32321    0.55350  1.024e+00    1.55700  2.815e+00
u2[12,1]         -0.76530   -0.25477  1.048e-02    0.26493  7.608e-01
u2[12,2]         -1.39705   -0.57323 -1.955e-01    0.18080  9.364e-01
u2[13,1]         -0.52500    0.01396  2.908e-01    0.58193  1.129e+00
u2[13,2]         -1.65803   -0.81257 -4.005e-01   -0.01256  7.373e-01
u2[14,1]         -0.77183   -0.26462  1.546e-02    0.28932  8.323e-01
u2[14,2]         -0.25812    0.30957  6.321e-01    0.94170  1.600e+00
u2[15,1]         -0.73954   -0.18720  1.111e-01    0.39822  9.639e-01
u2[15,2]         -1.49600   -0.68188 -2.760e-01    0.12402  8.946e-01
u2[16,1]         -0.19497    0.33187  6.089e-01    0.88565  1.429e+00
u2[16,2]         -1.67802   -0.81710 -3.880e-01    0.02370  8.623e-01
u2[17,1]         -0.94219   -0.43160 -1.759e-01    0.06807  5.460e-01
u2[17,2]         -1.12013   -0.22673  1.773e-01    0.58513  1.474e+00
u2[18,1]         -0.87572   -0.43095 -1.908e-01    0.02989  4.750e-01
u2[18,2]         -0.69918   -0.06855  2.640e-01    0.59282  1.294e+00
u2[19,1]         -0.75645   -0.27823 -1.298e-02    0.24975  7.365e-01
u2[19,2]         -0.92670   -0.17595  2.123e-01    0.60875  1.494e+00
u2[2,1]          -0.81260   -0.30378 -3.059e-02    0.22628  7.175e-01
u2[2,2]          -1.24505   -0.36180  5.164e-02    0.45932  1.306e+00
u2[20,1]         -0.60381   -0.01819  2.800e-01    0.58372  1.123e+00
u2[20,2]         -1.62400   -0.69975 -2.686e-01    0.17600  1.113e+00
u2[21,1]         -0.29819    0.29752  6.222e-01    0.95558  1.610e+00
u2[21,2]         -2.67308   -1.58700 -1.099e+00   -0.66152  1.382e-01
u2[22,1]         -1.30907   -0.76767 -4.877e-01   -0.22473  2.753e-01
u2[22,2]         -0.82310    0.04630  4.727e-01    0.91912  1.933e+00
u2[23,1]         -1.11112   -0.50535 -1.972e-01    0.07984  6.101e-01
u2[23,2]         -1.13603   -0.23097  2.069e-01    0.64040  1.592e+00
u2[24,1]         -1.79510   -1.02500 -6.763e-01   -0.35587  2.058e-01
u2[24,2]         -0.69160    0.23585  7.018e-01    1.18025  2.340e+00
u2[25,1]         -0.23822    0.11707  3.114e-01    0.50675  8.663e-01
u2[25,2]         -1.29702   -0.66857 -3.698e-01   -0.07126  5.040e-01
u2[26,1]         -0.84061   -0.26687  3.000e-02    0.31538  8.764e-01
u2[26,2]         -1.38532   -0.47070 -4.430e-02    0.41487  1.306e+00
u2[27,1]         -1.41512   -0.84518 -6.154e-01   -0.36238  8.787e-02
u2[27,2]         -0.59912    0.17585  5.507e-01    0.94638  1.838e+00
u2[28,1]         -0.97236   -0.54143 -3.257e-01   -0.11188  2.863e-01
u2[28,2]         -1.07107   -0.28920  7.827e-02    0.43835  1.143e+00
u2[29,1]         -1.13207   -0.59098 -3.242e-01   -0.06524  4.290e-01
u2[29,2]         -0.64362    0.08669  4.685e-01    0.86035  1.714e+00
u2[3,1]          -1.37205   -0.44615 -2.352e-02    0.42197  1.251e+00
u2[3,2]          -1.33305   -0.28747  2.401e-01    0.76465  2.048e+00
u2[30,1]         -0.25152    0.14822  3.429e-01    0.54340  9.411e-01
u2[30,2]         -0.86041   -0.25860  7.370e-02    0.39595  1.043e+00
u2[31,1]         -0.26650    0.15827  3.862e-01    0.61092  1.070e+00
u2[31,2]         -1.54107   -0.73897 -3.758e-01   -0.01972  6.728e-01
u2[32,1]         -1.32100   -0.77152 -4.987e-01   -0.25183  2.442e-01
u2[32,2]         -0.76105    0.05994  4.758e-01    0.94298  1.848e+00
u2[33,1]         -1.49810   -0.76467 -4.183e-01   -0.08284  5.539e-01
u2[33,2]         -0.66271    0.12350  5.838e-01    1.02625  2.044e+00
u2[34,1]          0.50200    0.97253  1.232e+00    1.49700  2.056e+00
u2[34,2]         -2.69500   -1.84800 -1.397e+00   -1.00500 -3.394e-01
u2[35,1]         -0.37299    0.05937  2.973e-01    0.53202  9.699e-01
u2[35,2]         -1.22210   -0.53772 -2.087e-01    0.10318  7.520e-01
u2[36,1]         -0.89997   -0.33437 -3.801e-02    0.24533  7.793e-01
u2[36,2]         -1.34400   -0.48355 -6.488e-02    0.35010  1.206e+00
u2[37,1]         -0.39603    0.16817  4.363e-01    0.74297  1.340e+00
u2[37,2]         -1.90310   -0.89565 -4.464e-01   -0.01675  8.129e-01
u2[38,1]         -1.72805   -0.91887 -5.408e-01   -0.19650  4.578e-01
u2[38,2]         -0.69638    0.18012  6.234e-01    1.10500  2.178e+00
u2[39,1]         -0.08571    0.37255  6.303e-01    0.89610  1.363e+00
u2[39,2]         -1.98400   -1.08925 -6.686e-01   -0.26558  5.151e-01
u2[4,1]          -1.11210   -0.53090 -2.494e-01    0.01563  5.209e-01
u2[4,2]          -0.29332    0.41003  7.955e-01    1.21225  2.111e+00
u2[40,1]         -0.67921   -0.10505  1.921e-01    0.48365  1.081e+00
u2[40,2]         -1.21513   -0.52125 -1.533e-01    0.20797  9.411e-01
u2[41,1]         -0.10863    0.35105  5.991e-01    0.85080  1.328e+00
u2[41,2]         -2.27800   -1.31300 -8.675e-01   -0.46355  2.594e-01
u2[42,1]         -0.22734    0.41420  7.822e-01    1.16400  1.935e+00
u2[42,2]         -2.80708   -1.61400 -1.089e+00   -0.60830  2.793e-01
u2[43,1]         -0.04657    0.39437  6.358e-01    0.85830  1.311e+00
u2[43,2]         -1.42305   -0.78772 -4.662e-01   -0.12108  5.340e-01
u2[44,1]         -1.13000   -0.61003 -3.517e-01   -0.09905  3.887e-01
u2[44,2]         -0.88721   -0.05208  3.432e-01    0.78508  1.675e+00
u2[45,1]         -1.01902   -0.56860 -3.394e-01   -0.12122  3.148e-01
u2[45,2]         -0.45533    0.21245  5.719e-01    0.95907  1.810e+00
u2[46,1]          0.14350    0.45780  6.248e-01    0.79283  1.114e+00
u2[46,2]         -1.33105   -0.72873 -4.072e-01   -0.10413  5.280e-01
u2[47,1]         -0.64781   -0.04548  2.810e-01    0.59125  1.220e+00
u2[47,2]         -1.48600   -0.64138 -2.066e-01    0.21370  1.055e+00
u2[48,1]         -0.09801    0.33827  5.825e-01    0.82485  1.307e+00
u2[48,2]         -1.47518   -0.81143 -4.628e-01   -0.12093  4.812e-01
u2[49,1]         -1.50912   -0.71668 -3.153e-01    0.06758  7.936e-01
u2[49,2]         -1.18308   -0.15407  3.090e-01    0.84242  1.950e+00
u2[5,1]          -0.54591   -0.14953  6.835e-02    0.28092  6.862e-01
u2[5,2]          -1.20810   -0.44972 -6.344e-02    0.31190  1.050e+00
u2[50,1]         -0.78913   -0.18160  1.164e-01    0.40810  9.924e-01
u2[50,2]         -0.97292   -0.16140  2.627e-01    0.69900  1.639e+00
u2[51,1]         -0.82200   -0.28880 -3.002e-02    0.22033  7.175e-01
u2[51,2]         -0.89256   -0.23170  1.097e-01    0.45975  1.163e+00
u2[52,1]          0.04587    0.44270  6.460e-01    0.84582  1.231e+00
u2[52,2]         -2.21000   -1.49125 -1.148e+00   -0.82530 -1.907e-01
u2[53,1]         -1.24903   -0.39990  1.198e-02    0.43652  1.309e+00
u2[53,2]         -1.76107   -0.65253 -1.655e-01    0.31725  1.274e+00
u2[54,1]         -1.27502   -0.42515  2.802e-03    0.41187  1.290e+00
u2[54,2]         -2.05405   -0.89728 -3.556e-01    0.16525  1.150e+00
u2[55,1]         -0.01672    0.45457  7.117e-01    0.95420  1.401e+00
u2[55,2]         -1.43308   -0.76125 -4.300e-01   -0.07834  5.734e-01
u2[56,1]         -1.28505   -0.73435 -4.405e-01   -0.16530  3.285e-01
u2[56,2]         -1.01900   -0.19078  2.150e-01    0.63272  1.480e+00
u2[57,1]         -0.02128    0.45422  7.234e-01    0.98020  1.508e+00
u2[57,2]         -2.27100   -1.44425 -1.043e+00   -0.66145 -8.451e-03
u2[58,1]         -1.61805   -0.93805 -5.910e-01   -0.26255  3.137e-01
u2[58,2]         -0.79048    0.12548  6.139e-01    1.08825  2.153e+00
u2[59,1]         -1.31820   -0.70572 -4.154e-01   -0.15300  3.548e-01
u2[59,2]         -0.96221   -0.18875  1.906e-01    0.56765  1.318e+00
u2[6,1]          -1.01600   -0.58518 -3.801e-01   -0.19068  1.703e-01
u2[6,2]          -0.32212    0.28547  6.327e-01    0.99752  1.752e+00
u2[60,1]         -1.31500   -0.80843 -5.605e-01   -0.32200  1.091e-01
u2[60,2]         -0.86552   -0.17000  2.041e-01    0.56662  1.281e+00
u2[7,1]          -1.03107   -0.46262 -1.914e-01    0.07386  6.039e-01
u2[7,2]          -1.07705   -0.22487  1.948e-01    0.62755  1.565e+00
u2[8,1]          -0.59837   -0.17603  4.737e-02    0.27727  7.075e-01
u2[8,2]          -0.96380   -0.20677  1.632e-01    0.55625  1.395e+00
u2[9,1]          -1.23002   -0.64952 -3.674e-01   -0.11115  3.944e-01
u2[9,2]          -0.69994    0.04093  4.235e-01    0.85060  1.777e+00

> if (!require(coda)) {
+   warning("package coda required to run this example")
+ } else {
+   effectiveSize(mymodel)
+ }
Loading required package: coda
       beta[1]        beta[2]        beta[3]        beta[4]        beta[5] 
     1295.5292      3892.7451      4204.0576      3999.0482      3915.3164 
       beta[6]       deviance sigma2.u2[1,1] sigma2.u2[1,2] sigma2.u2[2,1] 
      984.5007      1510.6739       761.6234       631.9721       631.9721 
sigma2.u2[2,2]        u2[1,1]        u2[1,2]       u2[10,1]       u2[10,2] 
      446.1504      1743.3388      1793.9241      2434.3151      2233.0908 
      u2[11,1]       u2[11,2]       u2[12,1]       u2[12,2]       u2[13,1] 
     1540.9928      1228.9548      2933.2201      3096.7187      3904.9406 
      u2[13,2]       u2[14,1]       u2[14,2]       u2[15,1]       u2[15,2] 
     2888.0486      1947.1777      1891.1936      3708.3096      3758.1855 
      u2[16,1]       u2[16,2]       u2[17,1]       u2[17,2]       u2[18,1] 
     2729.9461      3045.7498      2706.7696      3058.9143      2801.5124 
      u2[18,2]       u2[19,1]       u2[19,2]        u2[2,1]        u2[2,2] 
     3354.5504      3054.4043      3190.1518      3541.0251      4630.4725 
      u2[20,1]       u2[20,2]       u2[21,1]       u2[21,2]       u2[22,1] 
     3850.3173      3777.9930      2401.3188      1199.2742      2799.7738 
      u2[22,2]       u2[23,1]       u2[23,2]       u2[24,1]       u2[24,2] 
     2643.4671      3550.4623      3904.1358      2434.4004      1892.6109 
      u2[25,1]       u2[25,2]       u2[26,1]       u2[26,2]       u2[27,1] 
     2660.1572      2921.2675      3401.7593      3233.9924      1537.2042 
      u2[27,2]       u2[28,1]       u2[28,2]       u2[29,1]       u2[29,2] 
     2001.9087      2530.0963      2825.4326      1881.5682      2236.8802 
       u2[3,1]        u2[3,2]       u2[30,1]       u2[30,2]       u2[31,1] 
     4356.3072      3068.2211      2305.1828      2092.5368      3022.8492 
      u2[31,2]       u2[32,1]       u2[32,2]       u2[33,1]       u2[33,2] 
     4040.2258      2732.2516      3211.7183      3061.5381      2993.2967 
      u2[34,1]       u2[34,2]       u2[35,1]       u2[35,2]       u2[36,1] 
     1671.5127      1140.6597      2667.7790      3806.3336      3591.1815 
      u2[36,2]       u2[37,1]       u2[37,2]       u2[38,1]       u2[38,2] 
     4117.7210      3809.7045      3508.1821      2355.3118      2104.3822 
      u2[39,1]       u2[39,2]        u2[4,1]        u2[4,2]       u2[40,1] 
     2956.6673      2515.5192      2298.8408      1362.6870      3591.0583 
      u2[40,2]       u2[41,1]       u2[41,2]       u2[42,1]       u2[42,2] 
     2890.1223      3440.1651      1699.6372      2498.1827      1670.5323 
      u2[43,1]       u2[43,2]       u2[44,1]       u2[44,2]       u2[45,1] 
     2780.3039      3038.4623      2745.9390      3388.9994      2190.2078 
      u2[45,2]       u2[46,1]       u2[46,2]       u2[47,1]       u2[47,2] 
     2236.9583      1983.0005      2428.4053      3756.0405      4198.7949 
      u2[48,1]       u2[48,2]       u2[49,1]       u2[49,2]        u2[5,1] 
     2680.3071      2744.2223      3373.4137      3320.6453      2757.4860 
       u2[5,2]       u2[50,1]       u2[50,2]       u2[51,1]       u2[51,2] 
     3451.2824      2985.5192      2588.8165      3138.2035      3351.7363 
      u2[52,1]       u2[52,2]       u2[53,1]       u2[53,2]       u2[54,1] 
     2013.4598      1247.6452      3783.7975      3361.0313      2960.0917 
      u2[54,2]       u2[55,1]       u2[55,2]       u2[56,1]       u2[56,2] 
     2556.1916      2384.5966      2400.7138      2690.3353      2297.5419 
      u2[57,1]       u2[57,2]       u2[58,1]       u2[58,2]       u2[59,1] 
     2627.6247      1495.9269      2797.2379      2258.7599      2532.3506 
      u2[59,2]        u2[6,1]        u2[6,2]       u2[60,1]       u2[60,2] 
     2728.0216      2153.1911      2218.9920      2368.2976      2274.1660 
       u2[7,1]        u2[7,2]        u2[8,1]        u2[8,2]        u2[9,1] 
     3475.1237      3845.3857      2911.5556      2533.8203      3002.5049 
       u2[9,2] 
     3097.6112 
> sixway(mymodel[, "beta[1]", drop = FALSE])
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .379
> 
> # Addendum: changing contrasts back to pre-existing . . . . . . . . . . . NA
> 
> # Following re-specification of contrast settings towards the start of this
> # script, change contrasts back to pre-existing:
> options(contrasts = my_contrasts)
> 
> ############################################################################
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  18.20    2.89  170.21