R version 4.4.1 (2024-06-14 ucrt) -- "Race for Your Life"
Copyright (C) 2024 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 22  Using the Structured MVN framework for models . . . . . . . . . . .341
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> # 22.1 MCMC theory for Structured MVN models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
> 
> # 22.2 Using the SMVN framework in practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .344
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2024 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.11/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> # User's input if necessary
> 
> ## Read tutorial data
> data(tutorial, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10847.820210
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10860.697492
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10849.534312
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10850.669980
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10830.922783
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10851.202075
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10831.185996
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10838.507253
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10841.701141
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 10848.918036

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10822.788554
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10865.181453
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10837.691010
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10880.285801
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10833.110370
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.265285
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10858.607291
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10831.891735
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10856.861189
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10824.758702
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10845.858482
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.826770
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10862.143583
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10842.581776
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10834.259783
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10851.536606
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10852.274846
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10859.691303
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10833.246510
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10833.952872
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10857.442801
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10860.614963
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10852.796622
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10867.313931
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10846.393808
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10863.772380
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10851.851077
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10849.505973
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10865.054208
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10841.492988
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10837.389713
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10842.953827
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.488117
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.711929
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.804653
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10839.594052
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10849.154512
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10860.437188
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10868.448153
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10835.531519
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10854.971210
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10864.444840
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10850.386020
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10837.019413
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10838.210205
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10890.708596
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10835.721417
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10860.325900
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10882.421282
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10873.131139
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10832.176646
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10858.781415
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10842.603391
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10845.443157
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10846.696377
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10852.980508
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10870.685540
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10865.558879
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10839.289690
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10856.742990
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10846.803219
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10845.939902
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10859.518226
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.083604
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10853.951361
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10827.939196
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10855.188273
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10848.802236
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10857.682890
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10847.743677
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10854.692582
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10845.608539
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10853.097860
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10846.784628
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10847.376418
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10851.908252
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10841.962581
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.943972
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10866.722763
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10838.317917
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10826.617020
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.415677
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10846.888096
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10859.615746
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10834.763005
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10852.353221
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10856.812452
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10852.181902
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10848.798516
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10864.858675
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10844.724326
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10840.243563
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10834.740637
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10848.424193
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10854.432445
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10829.687675
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10840.477735
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10873.693461
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10849.245510
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 10856.432831
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          10850.
S.D.    =          11.751
S.E.M.  =         0.16618

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.54s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
10849.609  10789.729  59.879     10909.488  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.01474     0.05650  -0.26     0.7942         -0.12039     0.09603   172 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.17775     0.03642      0.11920     0.26236   3278 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.84847     0.01900      0.81147     0.88711   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> 
> ## Structured MVN
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(smvn = 1)), 
+   data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11012.863566
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11012.663396
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11012.578388
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11014.280821
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11012.328780
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11012.580579
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11013.041301
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11013.849061
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11012.693390
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11014.530825
Adapting finished and took 1100 iterations
Adapting took 1100 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11012.148010
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11014.851605
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11012.169999
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11012.821878
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11012.146119
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11010.688751
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11013.354323
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11023.641638
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11017.075499
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11017.567006

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11020.689786
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.974325
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.963284
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.083784
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.343548
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11010.925210
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.441503
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11017.649820
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11018.579052
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.730829
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11010.947486
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.493181
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.037581
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.975088
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.024190
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11016.315957
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.257307
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.006694
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11016.284747
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.241185
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.247144
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.376099
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.413231
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11015.471397
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11020.668154
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.976397
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.201042
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.682980
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.977811
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.027892
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.750271
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.221487
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.383677
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.745290
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11017.110705
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.876054
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.017315
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11010.963040
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.568936
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11016.520221
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.996514
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.440344
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11010.912723
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.052987
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.942903
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.048818
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.498593
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.501148
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.223654
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.704244
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11016.789240
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.953673
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.186424
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.471504
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.987163
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11018.846984
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.566858
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.179457
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.702774
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11015.560347
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11010.850456
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11021.633021
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.349497
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.858856
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.510266
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.956486
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.774314
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11015.397186
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.921881
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.587058
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11015.589899
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.366174
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.350502
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.607977
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11018.625488
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.946968
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.452234
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.833222
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.199549
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11017.776305
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11016.668668
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.336062
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.916816
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.945598
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11018.289832
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.127968
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.682993
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.040934
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11011.578002
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.806724
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.981795
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11015.870770
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.581254
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11013.127329
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11015.877625
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.720125
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.931815
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11016.195494
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11014.582863
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11012.080480
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          11014.
S.D.    =          2.3388
S.E.M.  =        0.033076

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.31s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
11013.694  11010.847  2.847      11016.541  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.01415     0.05499  -0.26      0.797         -0.12492     0.09344   1048 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.18392     0.03572      0.12385     0.26388   1009 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.84898     0.01910      0.81177     0.88752   1108 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 22.3 Model Comparison and structured MVN models . . . . . . . . . . . .349
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> ## Gibbs
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9206.193266
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9216.262176
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9241.057582
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9214.675885
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9198.255145
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9227.186873
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9222.091977
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9214.630238
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9216.522216
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9201.148603

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.190791
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.377297
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.886882
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.385976
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9238.483062
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.621742
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.716499
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.158850
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.248427
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.495732
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.683303
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.166694
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9237.981658
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.878383
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.726654
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.104227
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.156460
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.279082
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.816267
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.178731
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.163387
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.308723
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.214048
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.278770
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.819913
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.939811
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.651680
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.606479
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.925780
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.422125
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.244183
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.907738
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.883902
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.140517
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.397609
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.941176
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.158993
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.821254
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9209.099646
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.356036
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.820798
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.889068
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.485567
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9239.773102
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.613020
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.832435
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.787494
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.635017
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.243753
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9199.686027
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.435702
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.862131
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.440604
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.917390
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.824248
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9222.623770
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.897380
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.383677
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.390320
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.286579
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.534200
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.872396
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.935844
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.578259
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.257434
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.815469
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.291358
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.578031
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.657834
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.144417
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.997575
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.109666
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.063094
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.746381
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.159422
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.966122
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9190.735716
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.324394
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.512200
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.017143
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.234780
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.765768
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.968089
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9229.231239
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.636298
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.507235
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.445006
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9231.667774
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.470719
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.425209
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.996959
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9225.405793
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.746288
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.656436
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.976127
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.846042
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.637551
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.146880
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.841845
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.109834
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9209.1
S.D.    =          11.916
S.E.M.  =         0.16852

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.51s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9209.078   9149.069   60.010     9269.088   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00318     0.04420   0.07     0.9427         -0.08330     0.09189    223 
standlrt    0.56322     0.01258  44.77          0  ***     0.53844     0.58780   3821 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.09742     0.01988      0.06472     0.14144   3126 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56617     0.01249      0.54212     0.59090   4751 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## SMCMC
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(smcm = 1)), 
+   data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9204.819343
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9215.929214
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9240.880687
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9215.087010
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9200.144970
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9229.011288
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9221.762675
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9214.135739
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9219.335854
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9199.853827

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.053001
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.418846
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.892983
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.344750
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9237.241877
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.959420
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.768823
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.305697
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.226717
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.563551
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.677434
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.554490
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9240.698558
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.888360
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.299616
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.540135
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9226.162043
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.191623
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.967136
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.158009
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.374325
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.308688
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9188.095863
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9187.357905
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.502792
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.510537
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.230641
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.792811
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9193.897434
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.890352
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.979844
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.107714
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9194.561955
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.290864
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.337310
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.822603
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.504311
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.289206
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9208.169647
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.581718
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9229.293564
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9216.656842
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.921298
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9239.847062
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9202.931462
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.190786
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.412806
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.521730
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.833107
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.467965
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.759563
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.235164
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.261485
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.980073
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9224.924066
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9221.766988
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.977500
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.894289
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.170523
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.314507
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.004588
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9227.886567
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9198.939036
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.154008
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.719281
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.249538
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9206.230987
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.216064
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9214.342006
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9213.938460
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.957717
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9224.831542
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9211.965247
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9228.784992
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.152268
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.731936
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9191.901860
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9204.385270
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9205.165691
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9195.282462
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.926728
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.213805
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9200.747242
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9223.742589
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.001007
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.283292
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9207.752775
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9233.339087
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.351501
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9212.950072
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9217.619530
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9224.858375
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9201.336371
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9210.620397
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9203.418573
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.744669
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9197.902249
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9219.156737
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9215.985241
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9218.578744
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9209.1
S.D.    =          11.911
S.E.M.  =         0.16844

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.7s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9209.124   9149.119   60.005     9269.129   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00232     0.04035   0.06     0.9541         -0.07769     0.08336   5000 
standlrt    0.56324     0.01258  44.79          0  ***     0.53857     0.58783   5000 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.09707     0.01982      0.06484     0.14169   3140 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56618     0.01248      0.54208     0.59093   4748 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## Structured MVN
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(smvn = 1)), 
+   data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9362.825138
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9360.594802
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9363.073867
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9361.421807
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9362.391558
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9358.085137
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9363.357414
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9360.990938
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9360.296377
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 9360.691859
Adapting finished and took 1100 iterations
Adapting took 1100 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9362.146164
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9364.698339
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9362.534654
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9360.488984
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9364.454830
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9359.088397
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9361.805771
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9359.550720
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9360.612126
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 9365.283029

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9365.452152
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.937057
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.026230
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9363.752238
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.746767
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.582463
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9363.956322
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9365.064834
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.449971
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.778294
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9369.173139
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.851660
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.442635
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.875184
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.947458
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9366.934784
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.788934
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.700673
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9357.490548
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.521752
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.754915
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9368.279860
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.206217
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.277066
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.024847
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.341179
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.475734
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9363.318217
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.682889
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.390140
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.989039
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9367.513479
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.708410
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.276479
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9367.856456
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.213179
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.600571
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.007184
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9372.857253
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.906630
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.824305
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.229935
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.619629
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.585784
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.967799
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9357.537549
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.019372
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.159524
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9366.148251
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.647556
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.091975
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9357.978032
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.152732
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.286185
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.073165
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.110370
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.755354
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.492029
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.678840
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.569623
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.792327
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9365.415554
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9357.986592
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9363.320710
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9357.529479
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9357.625832
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.424996
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.224079
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.137767
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9367.467678
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.788796
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.258578
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9363.233156
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.832093
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.702218
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9366.031603
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.558894
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.620371
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.757543
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9363.212542
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.196167
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.466469
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9362.645572
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.730516
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9357.399817
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.575010
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.681171
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.145010
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9363.513242
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.807578
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9359.566188
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.357856
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.937717
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.934328
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.493310
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9358.336029
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.954891
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9361.371580
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9364.677714
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 9360.379983
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          9361.5
S.D.    =          2.9802
S.E.M.  =        0.042147

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.36s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
9361.457   9357.472   3.985      9365.442   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
normexam ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   0.00351     0.04390   0.08     0.9362         -0.08178     0.09048   1093 
standlrt    0.56262     0.01252  44.92          0  ***     0.53745     0.58656   1120 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.10146     0.02121      0.06727     0.15104   1003 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.56610     0.01250      0.54177     0.59062   1062 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 22.4 Assessing the need for the level 2 variance . . . . . . . . . . . 350
> 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u0")
> 
> set.seed(1)
> tutorial$temp <- rnorm(4059)
> 
> ## Define the model
> 
> ## IGLS
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(temp ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), data = tutorial))
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  IGLS        Elapsed time : 0.08s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)        The model converged after 3 iterations.
Log likelihood:      -5904.1 
Deviance statistic:  11808.3 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
temp ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.       z   Pr(>|z|)         [95% Conf.   Interval] 
Intercept    0.00085     0.01627    0.05     0.9584           -0.03103     0.03273 
standlrt    -0.00606     0.01638   -0.37     0.7114           -0.03816     0.02604 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err. 
var_Intercept   0.00000     0.00000 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err. 
var_Intercept   1.07389     0.02384 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## Gibbs
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(temp ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11807.779951
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11811.929498
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11810.227873
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11810.021054
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11809.168857
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11811.507653
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11803.288240
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11815.015964
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11808.999673
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11816.524588

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11798.410303
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.980105
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11820.966490
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.398642
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11817.619791
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.054557
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.382513
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11805.212819
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.492725
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11805.519474
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.590368
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.664502
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.692087
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11805.778360
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.141048
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.184929
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.477140
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11804.887827
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.108747
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.268854
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.693262
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.167960
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11804.081705
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.333494
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.670529
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.872512
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.655788
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.609209
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11812.813305
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.766136
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.078510
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.008738
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.801015
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.019089
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.500293
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11824.287912
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11803.758690
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.471772
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11804.978952
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.918355
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.108393
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.279123
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.765302
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11818.703640
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.229082
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.450242
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.874878
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11803.625669
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11801.598099
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.350635
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11817.719125
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11812.136816
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11815.366025
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.885311
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11817.159576
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11817.875512
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.494210
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.043942
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.076474
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.142506
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.226045
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.643912
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11799.922897
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.936726
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.205845
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.006388
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11802.976149
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11805.007697
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.156798
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.497059
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11815.034984
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.962830
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11802.011740
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11818.298088
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11801.727550
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.214108
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11812.777085
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11812.086556
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11805.640847
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.968190
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.418454
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.082622
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.962552
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11803.573675
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.084217
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11821.196957
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.070223
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11803.956952
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.964238
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.668004
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11797.021947
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.594473
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.485149
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.026913
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.006169
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11803.156440
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11818.919620
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11812.745140
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11821.579189
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.502484
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          11809.
S.D.    =          4.6659
S.E.M.  =        0.065986

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 1.5s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
11809.127  11800.329  8.798      11817.924  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
temp ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept    0.00086     0.01715   0.05     0.9602         -0.03354     0.03392   3072 
standlrt    -0.00606     0.01666  -0.36     0.7161         -0.03871     0.02671   5000 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.00179     0.00133      0.00037     0.00540   222 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   1.07434     0.02358      1.02887     1.12095   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## Structured MVN
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(temp ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcOptions = list(smvn = 1)), 
+   data = tutorial))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 1 1 1 1
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11891.495788
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11808.073355
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11807.555887
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11807.137308
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11820.094090
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11808.183695
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11807.459303
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11810.792835
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11819.698233
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11809.330633
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11810.206427
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 11807.491990
Adapting finished and took 1300 iterations
Adapting took 1300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11806.991926
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11812.747161
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11811.361388
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11812.047428
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11812.814421
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11808.151166
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11809.433371
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11809.185756
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11811.378295
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 11806.372638

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.690581
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.201469
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11815.633464
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11816.225577
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.113525
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.857928
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.580448
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.618219
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.808959
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.641579
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.221216
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.863981
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.028355
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.632565
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.109956
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.761213
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.177742
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11815.398913
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.746350
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.227023
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.595980
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.739566
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.028981
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.346003
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.694241
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.315753
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11812.904729
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.085158
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.169938
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.293437
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.271906
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.189670
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.318268
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.888496
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.306964
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.525162
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.689687
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.468119
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.900127
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.069013
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.618005
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.031839
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.947668
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.088481
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.415528
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.809538
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.327991
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.763927
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.127420
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.727870
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.399887
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.469216
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.330352
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.925421
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.362919
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.945686
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.818506
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.468927
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.797441
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.008939
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.018966
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.489908
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.509798
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.215534
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.934426
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.974977
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.328275
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.411768
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.057930
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.733219
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.275990
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.346404
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11812.027941
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11814.518260
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.956418
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.741687
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.810279
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.860817
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.550617
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.193676
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.211648
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.878460
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.323546
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.815030
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.822069
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.790741
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.239871
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11807.953467
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11813.527873
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11806.866314
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.727495
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.457451
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.728857
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11811.604543
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11815.448385
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11812.243261
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11817.200174
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11810.575551
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11809.024360
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 11808.433808
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          11810.
S.D.    =          2.8177
S.E.M.  =        0.039848

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 65   2 62.44615 198         65            2      62.44615          198
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.32s 
Number of obs:  4059 (from total 4059)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
11810.121  11806.585  3.537      11813.658  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
temp ~ 1 + standlrt + (1 | school) + (1 | student)
Level 2: school     Level 1: student      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept    0.00025     0.01453   0.02     0.9861         -0.02771     0.02897   1082 
standlrt    -0.00624     0.01620  -0.39     0.7001         -0.03750     0.02568   1036 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                   Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   -0.00217     0.00216     -0.00517     0.00306   739 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the student level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   1.07763     0.02292      1.03313     1.12278   1157 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> summary(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
    -2.175e-03      2.159e-03      3.053e-05      7.945e-05 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

     2.5%       25%       50%       75%     97.5% 
-0.005174 -0.003776 -0.002543 -0.000952  0.003058 

> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u0")
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .355
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ############################################################################
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   5.59    0.71   14.95