R version 4.4.1 (2024-06-14 ucrt) -- "Race for Your Life"
Copyright (C) 2024 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 13  Ordered Categorical Responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> # 13.1 A level chemistry dataset . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2024 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.11/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> # User's input if necessary
> 
> ## Read alevchem data
> data(alevchem, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> alevchem$gcseav <- alevchem$gcse_tot/alevchem$gcse_no - 6
> 
> hist(alevchem$gcseav, breaks = 20)
> 
> # 13.2 Normal response models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .184
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8589.781757
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8588.935899
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8594.306275
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8590.182878
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8587.845155
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8590.911155
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8596.278272
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8590.675338
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8588.937953
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8589.349802

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.025133
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.472251
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.393103
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8593.589788
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.038292
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.608477
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.259544
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.633424
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.929806
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.480761
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.476310
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8593.771435
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.129051
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.615559
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.840293
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.874788
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.935779
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.766617
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.202905
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.383028
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.017291
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.996829
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.191742
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.000344
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.514290
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.971547
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.106794
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.030708
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.600671
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.020178
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.989526
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.841953
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.671908
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.311580
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.376522
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.838457
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.958418
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.233082
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.911582
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.822144
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.303864
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.604131
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.439276
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.633096
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.420965
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.233596
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.217779
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8594.091876
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.039631
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.410121
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.702678
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.100157
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.304207
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.000173
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.862685
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.239228
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.134060
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.691361
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.084278
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.443872
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.315775
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.338487
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.123756
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.449289
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.304795
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.459602
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.978283
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.163037
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.418263
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.829098
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8598.672634
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.004663
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8593.982063
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.326842
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.896001
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.130134
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.640657
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.964709
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8593.222706
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.752662
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.221653
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8596.197303
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.513180
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.505582
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.713166
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.139600
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.952695
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.370287
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.913577
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.569767
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.269639
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.657932
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.167278
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.023107
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.532820
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.145751
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.833334
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.175766
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.189073
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.377726
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          8589.8
S.D.    =          2.0359
S.E.M.  =        0.028792

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.3s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
8589.839   8587.813   2.026      8591.864   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil)
Level 1: pupil      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   3.51860     0.03766  93.43          0  ***     3.44323     3.59127   5000 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the pupil level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   3.08902     0.09549      2.91159     3.28100   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
Warning message:
In runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1),  :
  You have specified a factor variable as a continuous response, you may wish to check its numeric values
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1,
+   resi.store = TRUE), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6978.850645
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6983.124139
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6974.365796
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6980.196110
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6975.418308
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6978.945371
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6973.818301
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6973.974126
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6972.775392
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6974.744805

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.847778
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.618902
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.808912
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.143067
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.399630
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.322300
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6983.534285
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.401445
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6984.632477
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.577818
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.090784
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.442051
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.829571
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.631142
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.274545
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.394158
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.636256
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.114873
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.797635
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.897137
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.437577
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.571363
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.210518
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.591689
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.040747
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.437151
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.542584
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.211286
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.311568
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6978.898024
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.047128
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.722796
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.670019
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.351648
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.026911
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.599005
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.648586
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.272396
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.330049
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.687620
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6978.816737
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.713209
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.090163
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.728842
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.280018
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.270805
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.131078
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.716353
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.328534
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.243059
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.031857
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6983.181321
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.238273
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.427509
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.842215
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.220045
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.485657
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.813252
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6982.320481
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.016105
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.931958
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.108037
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.425074
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.533163
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.846394
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6978.680164
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.560429
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.665362
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.945763
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.273450
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6982.502098
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.689444
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.868519
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6978.392116
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.228211
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.339547
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.239474
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6986.932887
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.595223
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.676533
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.270989
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.344557
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.092987
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6984.136720
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.262066
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.010808
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.956072
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.696715
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.072633
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.369499
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.030917
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.612985
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.371040
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.398259
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.806986
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.844774
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.865493
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.663997
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.406166
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.076731
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          6977.8
S.D.    =          3.4725
S.E.M.  =        0.049108

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Normal) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.5s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
6977.813   6971.854   5.959      6983.772   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender + (1 | 
    pupil)
Level 1: pupil      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                  Coef.   Std. Err.      z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept       3.31939     0.04044  82.09            0  ***     3.23927     3.39728   5000 
gcseav          1.56080     0.05145  30.33   4.141e-202  ***     1.45944     1.66203   4773 
I(gcseav^2)     0.19375     0.02639   7.34    2.085e-13  ***     0.14280     0.24510   5000 
I(gcseav^3)    -0.07298     0.01923  -3.79     0.000148  ***    -0.11103    -0.03499   5000 
genderfemale   -0.48058     0.05217  -9.21     3.19e-20  ***    -0.58276    -0.37895   5000 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the pupil level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   1.46733     0.04426      1.38411     1.55798   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
Warning message:
In runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender +  :
  You have specified a factor variable as a continuous response, you may wish to check its numeric values
> 
> predCurves(mymodel, xname = "gcseav", group = "genderfemale")
> 
> # 13.3 Ordered multinomial modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
> 
> ##IGLS
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1, D = "Ordered Multinomial", data = alevchem))
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  IGLS MQL1        Elapsed time : 0.31s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)        The model converged after 4 iterations.
Log likelihood:      NA 
Deviance statistic:  NA 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                 Coef.   Std. Err.        z     Pr(>|z|)         [95% Conf.   Interval] 
Intercept_F   -1.39844     0.05377   -26.01   4.274e-149   ***     -1.50383    -1.29304 
Intercept_E   -0.70147     0.04564   -15.37    2.671e-53   ***     -0.79093    -0.61201 
Intercept_D   -0.09981     0.04303    -2.32      0.02036   *       -0.18414    -0.01547 
Intercept_C    0.59498     0.04489    13.25    4.258e-40   ***      0.50699     0.68296 
Intercept_B    1.60280     0.05743    27.91   2.075e-171   ***      1.49024     1.71535 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err. 
bcons_1    1.00000     0.00000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ##MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1, D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
Residual and/or Residual SE column are empty, starting residuals will not be used
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7728.104312
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7739.547875
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7723.248887
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7726.999434
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7727.453701
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7726.933527
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7726.622990
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7725.652301
Adapting finished and took 900 iterations
Adapting took 900 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7731.176784
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7728.926557
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7725.898613
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7726.649931
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7725.418044
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7728.462307
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7726.556337
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7731.403130
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7730.246241
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7726.114927

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.702219
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.367905
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.454312
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.352189
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.033899
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.165429
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.678304
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.334422
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.402264
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.114108
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.768755
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.945692
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.905686
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.864059
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7721.755489
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.948212
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.047267
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.686876
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.993895
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.739353
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.642956
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.509654
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.019047
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.656296
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.086353
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.444499
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.935450
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.150240
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.465994
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.925983
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.772797
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.594550
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.059949
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.768811
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.292925
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.589705
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.274399
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.282771
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.288888
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.983088
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.404270
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.574859
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.113841
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.219696
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.838235
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.484422
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.866301
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.396230
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7721.950513
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.540986
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7730.685009
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.648974
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.943765
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.574441
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.202371
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.519645
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.053819
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.749609
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.347727
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.020679
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.946447
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.290204
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7721.948884
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.885918
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.434760
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.369876
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7732.144565
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.392578
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.811894
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.729564
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7730.449191
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.908146
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.316777
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.830023
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.257512
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.012928
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.130486
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.276569
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7736.575762
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.253735
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.712776
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7736.504544
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7730.398139
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.964394
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.003318
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.787643
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.580592
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.178363
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.592455
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.346690
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.289490
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.907339
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.515011
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.954299
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.436813
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7730.071290
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.458828
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.483245
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.060880
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.147775
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          7726.4
S.D.    =          3.1760
S.E.M.  =        0.044915

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 8.78s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
7726.435   7721.414   5.021      7731.455   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                 Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F   -1.40439     0.05393  -26.04   1.744e-149  ***    -1.51012    -1.29969   201 
Intercept_E   -0.70630     0.04658  -15.16    6.109e-52  ***    -0.80085    -0.61866   199 
Intercept_D   -0.10337     0.04363   -2.37      0.01783  *      -0.18935    -0.01769   178 
Intercept_C    0.59269     0.04555   13.01    1.062e-38  ***     0.50316     0.67788   227 
Intercept_B    1.60220     0.05745   27.89   3.909e-171  ***     1.48971     1.71914   385 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 13.4 Adding predictor variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .191
> ##MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + I(gcseav^3)[1:5] + gender[1:5],
+   D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
Residual and/or Residual SE column are empty, starting residuals will not be used
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6104.800863
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6097.746829
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6098.924178
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6107.209238
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6102.844717
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6100.052849
Adapting finished and took 700 iterations
Adapting took 700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6095.573244
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6097.971490
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6098.834974
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6100.511213
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6099.664133
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6098.675646
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6099.413315
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6097.615842
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6094.551936
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6098.015932

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.676272
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.323932
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.310958
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6103.603933
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.818222
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6108.173261
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6099.096238
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.651707
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.344687
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.464743
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.045854
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6105.854965
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.319842
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.443786
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6113.011088
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.498190
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.463345
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.284604
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.715277
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6103.289643
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.763722
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6106.309942
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.209688
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6092.113776
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.934665
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.187934
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6103.513837
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.145594
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6105.130538
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6092.500297
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.208523
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6093.817963
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6109.366001
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.993383
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6099.717407
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.087752
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.008664
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.830481
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.392022
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.148389
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.880737
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.577219
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.051763
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.264538
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.363937
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6106.139072
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.742559
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.580142
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6105.731944
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6093.087170
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.239805
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.818098
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.917031
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.108174
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.155627
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6092.274959
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.532807
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.488008
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6099.100491
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6111.993869
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.537681
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.998322
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.350748
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.183631
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6106.237262
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6105.230643
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.701427
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.416460
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.472343
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.229104
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.435049
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.889335
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.360065
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.719765
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6109.388582
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6115.383309
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.518056
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.539366
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.600613
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6103.418745
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.957015
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.678990
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.782314
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.528096
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.399629
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.224190
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6107.121185
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.902872
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.266935
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.335283
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.153019
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.481891
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.221489
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.803456
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.844259
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.965430
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.016206
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.427468
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.383217
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.393162
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          6099.9
S.D.    =          4.2083
S.E.M.  =        0.059514

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 13.12s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
6099.860   6090.964   8.896      6108.756   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    I(gcseav^3)[1:5] + gender[1:5]
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.88389     0.08182  -23.03   2.599e-117  ***    -2.04246    -1.72432   143 
Intercept_E          -0.83867     0.07196  -11.65    2.185e-31  ***    -0.98014    -0.70029   129 
Intercept_D           0.12816     0.06736    1.90       0.0571  .      -0.00296     0.26107   144 
Intercept_C           1.29669     0.07303   17.75    1.594e-70  ***     1.15546     1.43871   201 
Intercept_B           2.98704     0.10140   29.46   9.747e-191  ***     2.78826     3.18299   268 
gcseav_12345         -2.07941     0.09863  -21.08    1.129e-98  ***    -2.27632    -1.88424   177 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.45422     0.05075   -8.95    3.555e-19  ***    -0.55129    -0.35533   289 
I(gcseav^3)_12345    -0.04984     0.03915   -1.27        0.203         -0.12880     0.02670   173 
genderfemale_12345    0.75735     0.08245    9.19    4.074e-20  ***     0.59992     0.92252   263 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 13.5 Multilevel ordered response modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
> 
> # Note: Establishment codes on their own do not uniquely identify schools.
> # Schools are instead uniquely identified by LEA code, establishment ID
> # combination. Thus, here we generated a unique school ID.
> 
> alevchem$school <- as.numeric(factor(paste0(alevchem$lea, alevchem$estab)))
> 
> ##MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school),
+   D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5789.899888
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5798.591468
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5782.197552
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5803.659812
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5852.144273
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5791.659275
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5846.574118
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5817.834445
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5787.698398
Adapting finished and took 1000 iterations
Adapting took 1000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5847.106255
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5817.575825
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5839.723143
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5827.648428
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5862.546594
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5819.037013
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5826.427682
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5803.642416
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5813.180007
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5822.102395

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.689702
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.720884
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.423730
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5857.263805
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.008912
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5864.737607
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.075239
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5857.578030
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.085613
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.922313
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.111919
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.614336
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.173689
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.049614
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.183198
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.093143
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.665909
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.944063
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.276479
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.566510
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.812774
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.548007
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.415872
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.842697
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.984343
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.912804
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.489264
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.903353
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.179311
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.492211
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.637259
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.953520
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.093315
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.582846
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.851843
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.011475
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.926824
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.713320
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.287579
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.099476
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.033039
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.719926
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.709919
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.270697
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.268104
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.740863
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.847067
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.065879
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.127377
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.576368
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5831.921271
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.884577
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5845.209646
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.313031
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.386810
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.851990
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.180793
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.855672
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5844.079044
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.991640
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.105264
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.736757
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.469384
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.590276
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.796428
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.984615
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.141861
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.298636
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.745296
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.974337
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.814568
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.748841
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.181678
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.017360
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.032513
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.592127
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5862.170307
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.174816
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.906803
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.778873
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5860.584377
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.084573
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.642795
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.375436
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.706617
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.348809
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.155352
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.237008
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5831.664787
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5845.382166
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.520355
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.706739
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.311568
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.733066
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.447959
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.935271
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5850.942926
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.888938
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.398943
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.484267
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          5814.8
S.D.    =          23.134
S.E.M.  =         0.32717

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
         N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 220   1 9.845455  94        220            1      9.845455           94
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 15.19s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
5814.819   5692.565   122.253    5937.072   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school)
Level 2: school     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.93053     0.11114  -17.37    1.387e-67  ***    -2.15321    -1.72481    84 
Intercept_E          -0.77288     0.10381   -7.45    9.682e-14  ***    -0.97876    -0.57760    64 
Intercept_D           0.29717     0.10367    2.87      0.00415  **      0.09871     0.49680    59 
Intercept_C           1.55949     0.11150   13.99    1.881e-44  ***     1.34153     1.77609    78 
Intercept_B           3.36283     0.13169   25.54   7.768e-144  ***     3.09880     3.61510    90 
gcseav_12345         -2.26915     0.07218  -31.44   6.215e-217  ***    -2.41140    -2.12468   280 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.45817     0.04577  -10.01    1.375e-23  ***    -0.54707    -0.36460   383 
genderfemale_12345    0.74993     0.09208    8.14      3.8e-16  ***     0.57221     0.93418   315 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                        Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept_12345   0.64392     0.13723      0.41543     0.96019   198 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ##MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school),
+  D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6
iteration 7

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5822.293594
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5776.537381
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5801.476869
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5774.245399
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5801.368675
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5750.591253
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5788.744504
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5766.684281
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5757.018022
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5725.887116
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5773.219775
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5758.104524
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5787.600664
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5757.879266
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5829.067663
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5752.482884
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5716.830570
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5784.839189
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5780.219569
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5791.611591
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5735.900812
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5736.868181
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5747.797851
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5709.696522
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5798.547981
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5799.826243
Adapting finished and took 2700 iterations
Adapting took 2700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5773.390724
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5771.088890
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5796.486982
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5789.076442
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5805.528312
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5857.742080
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5805.237011
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5778.257043
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5867.862722
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5759.956765

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.829118
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.179882
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.081904
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.956503
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.168943
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.356204
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.666003
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.085109
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.283598
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.937059
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5724.348567
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5747.218107
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.424432
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.714475
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.202034
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.059679
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.533811
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.181921
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.211030
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.533035
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.034313
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.935892
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.800913
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.299107
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.549466
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.317238
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.742745
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.485183
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.546840
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.310524
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.943449
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.799849
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.446534
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.626209
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.881874
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.480654
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.840360
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.109542
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.805282
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.614252
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.017975
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.841159
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.419240
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.552496
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.012819
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.258907
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.336175
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5715.526480
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.941451
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.093568
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.254548
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.536506
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.985215
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.118478
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.036948
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.990393
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.252383
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.471031
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.616317
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.188248
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.920744
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.289260
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.353077
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.460931
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.201978
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.577169
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.999870
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.720032
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.834688
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.053695
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.915375
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.693827
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.446949
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.088867
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.613165
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.232799
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.617953
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.283742
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.642307
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.696769
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.217976
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.222954
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.641009
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.778925
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.431841
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.366900
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.826039
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.519937
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.870113
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.548503
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.579525
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.410623
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.174452
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.795494
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.748215
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.164845
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.528330
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.540362
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5725.112912
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.055499
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          5773.7
S.D.    =          26.749
S.E.M.  =         0.37828

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
         N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 220   1 9.845455  94        220            1      9.845455           94
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 20.71s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
5773.700   5621.361   152.339    5926.039   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school)
Level 2: school     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.93287     0.11407  -16.94    2.114e-64  ***    -2.15146    -1.71020    77 
Intercept_E          -0.75587     0.10323   -7.32    2.433e-13  ***    -0.95206    -0.54923    67 
Intercept_D           0.32514     0.10258    3.17     0.001527  **      0.14040     0.54000    53 
Intercept_C           1.59563     0.11037   14.46    2.275e-47  ***     1.39465     1.82939    71 
Intercept_B           3.41236     0.13461   25.35   9.003e-142  ***     3.14386     3.68627   103 
gcseav_12345         -2.31401     0.08110  -28.53   4.413e-179  ***    -2.47034    -2.15774   259 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.44343     0.04925   -9.00    2.178e-19  ***    -0.54058    -0.34566   367 
genderfemale_12345    0.73545     0.09517    7.73    1.093e-14  ***     0.56078     0.92168   231 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                                      Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_gcseav_12345                    0.15663     0.06783      0.05417     0.31562    48 
cov_gcseav_12345_Intercept_12345   -0.02498     0.07624     -0.17111     0.12101    84 
var_Intercept_12345                 0.62268     0.13613      0.40076     0.91745   199 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept_12345", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 300, "sigma2v6")
> 
> ##Increases iterations to 50,000
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school),
+  D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000)), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6
iteration 7

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5822.293594
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5776.537381
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5801.476869
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5774.245399
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5801.368675
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5750.591253
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5788.744504
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5766.684281
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5757.018022
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5725.887116
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5773.219775
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5758.104524
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5787.600664
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5757.879266
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5829.067663
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5752.482884
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5716.830570
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5784.839189
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5780.219569
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5791.611591
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5735.900812
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5736.868181
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5747.797851
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5709.696522
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5798.547981
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5799.826243
Adapting finished and took 2700 iterations
Adapting took 2700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5773.390724
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5771.088890
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5796.486982
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5789.076442
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5805.528312
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5857.742080
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5805.237011
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5778.257043
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5867.862722
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5759.956765

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.829118
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.179882
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.081904
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.956503
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.168943
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.356204
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.666003
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.085109
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.283598
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.937059
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5724.348567
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5747.218107
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.424432
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.714475
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.202034
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.059679
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.533811
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.181921
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.211030
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.533035
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.034313
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.935892
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.800913
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.299107
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.549466
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.317238
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.742745
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.485183
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.546840
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.310524
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.943449
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.799849
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.446534
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.626209
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.881874
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.480654
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.840360
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.109542
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.805282
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.614252
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.017975
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.841159
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.419240
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.552496
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.012819
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.258907
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.336175
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5715.526480
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.941451
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.093568
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.254548
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.536506
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.985215
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.118478
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.036948
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.990393
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.252383
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.471031
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.616317
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.188248
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.920744
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.289260
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.353077
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.460931
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.201978
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.577169
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.999870
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.720032
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.834688
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.053695
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.915375
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.693827
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.446949
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.088867
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.613165
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.232799
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.617953
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.283742
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.642307
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.696769
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.217976
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.222954
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.641009
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.778925
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.431841
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.366900
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.826039
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.519937
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.870113
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.548503
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.579525
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.410623
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.174452
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.795494
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.748215
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.164845
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.528330
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.540362
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5725.112912
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.055499
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.514299
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.235964
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.357384
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.554519
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.403255
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.399390
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.786504
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.847014
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.371555
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.598061
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.135141
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.699985
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.954977
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.701784
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.021176
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.466109
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.827582
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.653575
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.531755
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.211886
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.873452
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.160459
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.455864
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.974869
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.801217
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.616842
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.605490
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.484857
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.443259
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.630542
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.856560
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.090891
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.804914
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.487809
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.696842
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.161326
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.064206
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.178249
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.133778
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.025865
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.926650
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.770808
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.773746
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.910451
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.187748
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.261506
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.078233
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.209707
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.881041
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.657425
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.289356
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.421815
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.070337
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.043643
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.468919
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.495008
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.480860
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.340518
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.392871
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.471663
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.942729
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.757855
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.293262
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.618231
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.673504
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.070428
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.118292
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.776852
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.880148
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.407024
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.076688
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.019381
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.972239
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.891175
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.503235
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.052743
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.352646
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.636407
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.598529
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.979177
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.201255
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.567234
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.624519
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.387995
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.958822
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.981915
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5739.312979
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.279185
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.638142
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.856517
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.400760
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.645495
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.139045
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.129277
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.084396
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.020395
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.623765
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.717580
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.661418
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.746131
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.193126
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5840.282893
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.280479
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.890053
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.645221
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.731890
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.614999
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.654566
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5726.601091
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.915312
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.931231
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.103057
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.220817
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.994369
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.169100
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.213690
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5739.374463
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.862413
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.709211
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.337352
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.465099
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.101919
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.623073
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.700719
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.343204
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.866392
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.285251
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.902028
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.166168
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.951314
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.803916
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.061923
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.426970
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.232150
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.218940
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.065468
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.291851
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5726.288608
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.325492
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.644899
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.237460
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.947031
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.045217
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.347695
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.000403
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.860029
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.419378
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.272246
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.450178
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.202766
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.140750
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.713850
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.085773
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.740674
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.569700
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.699725
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.747596
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.402793
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.469309
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.777660
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.135085
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.077431
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.166695
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.582188
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.824051
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.716231
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.351478
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.885301
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.141978
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.931252
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.397119
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.199772
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.751194
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.794811
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.178015
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.152250
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.643544
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.366807
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5731.374283
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.493701
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5731.575436
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.110038
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.240625
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.041020
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.598395
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5856.090871
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.145516
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.300304
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.426560
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.712454
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.681592
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.208352
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.894482
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.888882
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.508567
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.752347
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.237410
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.527113
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.890103
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.762407
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.281030
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.002792
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.812023
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.808617
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.578288
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.672902
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.864298
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.502968
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.548341
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.259841
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.049685
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.417362
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.448522
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.838255
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.961773
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.028538
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.637417
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.080787
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.094427
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.469320
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.261293
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.559922
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.777739
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.140338
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.044022
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.787404
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.508472
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.599754
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.855743
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.376899
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5847.869377
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.078822
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.541834
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.079916
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.181570
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.048445
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.076672
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.792311
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.015067
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.031755
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5732.783633
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.857720
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.266304
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.141820
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5848.440720
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.396555
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5844.804233
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.146652
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.077716
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.858241
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5747.528382
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.438098
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.358596
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.204742
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.392212
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.094802
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.842010
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.134865
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.079059
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.882443
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.285278
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.609496
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.515792
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.846070
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.507161
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.909463
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.275644
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.898894
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.824404
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.332233
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.326110
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5735.372122
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.668551
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.208633
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.696865
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.994620
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.980585
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.982526
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.181276
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.032719
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.811622
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.309655
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.819103
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.437235
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.397908
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.033401
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.707070
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.001069
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.544362
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.939465
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.403339
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.505035
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.388926
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.356613
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.231600
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.577516
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.586104
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.328228
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.826568
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.898669
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.326918
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.889166
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.089141
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.682751
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.558493
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5849.303304
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.481531
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.125464
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.303810
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.276524
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.121489
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.214299
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.125628
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.042961
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.668965
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.088943
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.050461
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.628426
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.848432
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.688321
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.222969
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5747.858287
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.390249
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5726.977276
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.622605
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.542152
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.667546
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.523973
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5709.872100
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.008510
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.834496
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.355607
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5858.054717
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.151446
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.160791
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.342881
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.890145
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.388178
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.744139
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.794720
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.437237
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.202334
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.684284
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.828634
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.805681
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.265414
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.959602
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.575288
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.729390
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.916619
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.254817
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.748640
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.841418
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.602610
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.826804
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.548897
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.369470
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.827341
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.865596
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.438345
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.916751
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.165906
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.030630
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.066190
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.760862
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.840427
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.858282
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.834838
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.541136
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.648628
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.305163
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.793670
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.224841
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.520905
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.974795
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.122078
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.418846
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.138463
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.384349
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.268217
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.536823
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.085261
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.011439
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.951050
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.047133
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.468650
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.026867
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.229594
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.133266
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.348072
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5717.382249
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.526405
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.915223
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5732.768114
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.232894
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.872390
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.560349
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.503563
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.932521
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.801558
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.561397
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.020304
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.816597
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.447007
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.536658
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.668326
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.259499
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5709.118746
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.163853
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.560794
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.616124
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.165101
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.503574
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5716.025327
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.355627
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.834468
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.888634
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.827042
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.148669
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5715.373563
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.688281
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.433189
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.581191
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.444147
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5732.987083
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.462934
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.108266
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.050324
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.631226
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.817823
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.964234
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.866906
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.703265
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.983388
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.916893
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.263130
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.823424
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.848896
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.494112
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.583012
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.561247
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.542545
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.266422
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.590251
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.238590
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.102248
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.973311
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.449979
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5705.078142
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.175252
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.102645
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.554969
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5711.435020
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.999543
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.001337
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.068631
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.036380
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.220826
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.340899
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.170635
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.795565
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.129962
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.905439
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.206691
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.352686
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.617092
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.619274
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.757813
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.678514
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.202186
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.942632
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.273748
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.259137
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.948377
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5728.050267
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.315766
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.644621
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.567027
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.750907
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.880957
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.711497
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.919094
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.226660
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.296617
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.971448
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.114799
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.472086
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5703.784335
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.905270
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.948509
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.234194
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.915541
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.327817
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.523679
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.875979
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.925950
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.124259
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.177575
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.295708
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.491122
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.648018
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.932991
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.831009
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.868460
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.102021
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.430100
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.279392
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.697079
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.085421
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.439323
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.252695
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.806498
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.736602
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.762448
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.362606
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.309372
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.363033
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.268169
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.384484
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.346614
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.140453
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.193668
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.455857
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.401849
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.111595
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.365261
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.833690
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.114270
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.059670
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.351901
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.755413
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.416869
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.311599
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.239738
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.555566
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.265592
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.958589
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.191615
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.490351
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.196290
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.770437
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.847557
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.272116
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.209553
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.955529
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.937196
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.842697
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.967272
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.541183
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.879669
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.360525
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.579000
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.378762
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.974181
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5836.212330
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.309045
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.650196
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.196888
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5714.844344
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.284919
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.379577
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.176571
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.686964
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.037928
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.493980
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5726.588068
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.490375
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.494085
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.265937
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.995989
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.525289
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.516807
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.521817
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.040167
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.169701
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5841.045766
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.281509
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.923446
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.217538
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.867635
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.976500
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.654220
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.741232
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5725.355409
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.144734
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.324591
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.391038
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.406249
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.973742
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.878149
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.981844
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.585135
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.222800
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.235765
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.256491
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.939225
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.131894
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.888141
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.270795
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.574524
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.098160
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.570744
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.662029
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.927371
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.519228
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.404187
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.722629
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.193686
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.187985
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.966004
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.690254
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.158257
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.239506
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.615756
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.702526
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.509970
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.061156
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.417444
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.307881
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5725.816848
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.600889
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.950144
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.100574
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.957145
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.476141
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.054237
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.593045
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.463866
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.261108
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.769744
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.551664
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.052964
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.433261
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.540955
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.598805
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.016844
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.949229
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.210295
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.250549
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.469812
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5844.746130
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.571388
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.124402
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.698042
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.856193
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.996391
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.325929
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5710.452472
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.727570
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.849347
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.811834
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.610615
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.323156
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.905188
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.061380
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.264628
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.034828
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.188984
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.476663
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.763878
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.697922
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.354612
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.493366
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.640190
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.968160
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.904065
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.630963
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.925733
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.734497
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.138049
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.780289
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.772764
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.223905
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.514857
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.514286
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.809934
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5701.751059
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.610053
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.491217
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.256743
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.141100
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.946550
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.541215
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.541455
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.527971
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.700754
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.546535
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.167786
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.171981
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.849128
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.723827
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.727778
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.253183
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5841.181091
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.754374
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.842264
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.992751
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.113443
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.204753
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.543306
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.407585
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.553194
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.854184
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.887600
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.685032
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.464123
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.119721
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.074389
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.079018
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.872308
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.995897
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.572777
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.219544
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.956317
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.996813
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.609469
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.311542
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.592903
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.248753
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.443012
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.344216
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.059743
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.779273
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.933365
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.650269
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5735.192203
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.554647
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.122616
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.384175
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.666193
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.812715
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.542606
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.878450
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.136348
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.826844
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.005448
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5856.226462
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.651139
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.436153
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.147724
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5721.029210
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.892821
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.928627
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5720.126669
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.636649
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.372259
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.017448
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.514080
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.101340
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.902277
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.452429
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.001581
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.284053
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.833903
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.851454
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.824868
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.008562
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.427287
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.201534
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.923735
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.795981
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.666328
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.772367
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.160965
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.246991
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.615001
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.833370
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.116036
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.894491
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.766285
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.410225
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.395653
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.130128
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.161009
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.667965
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.957334
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.597288
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.682297
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.026351
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.038735
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.434210
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.535004
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.507122
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.289783
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.913183
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.805240
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.464591
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.138290
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5847.467695
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.116882
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.187497
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.176790
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.400493
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.104506
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.913026
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.506679
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.231936
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.575276
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.141719
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.172684
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.518598
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.936000
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.508703
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5855.688992
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.584040
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5843.601234
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.143967
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.522462
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.089168
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.388814
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.934000
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.012395
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.684786
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.101161
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.333673
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.210110
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.346859
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.354129
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.517195
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.602182
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.019436
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.479055
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.489298
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.183192
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.553689
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.797319
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.167535
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.947268
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.506078
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.535852
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.264881
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.077402
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.089213
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.203207
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.408521
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.735982
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.330047
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.356383
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.737476
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.416245
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.008536
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.139077
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.372053
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.955525
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.902469
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.898888
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.918846
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.073240
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.111536
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.718490
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.344529
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.253502
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.363922
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.226610
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.861714
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.214044
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.370997
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.907552
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.787142
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.991021
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.085785
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.310338
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.392137
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.612815
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5732.392846
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.554750
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5833.050893
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.777035
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.758762
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.552610
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.271535
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.629063
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.870571
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.681360
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.072663
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.189599
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.353080
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.422578
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5700.625037
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.241370
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5717.827366
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.573313
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.707458
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.087569
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.151537
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.552414
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.406730
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.631304
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.306071
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.183207
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.066225
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.923162
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.430401
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.779865
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.080857
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.641392
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.166919
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.771768
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.282470
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.057839
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          5781.2
S.D.    =          28.427
S.E.M.  =         0.12713

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
         N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 220   1 9.845455  94        220            1      9.845455           94
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 134.89s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
5781.179   5633.462   147.717    5928.896   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school)
Level 2: school     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.93774     0.10903  -17.77    1.151e-70  ***    -2.15332    -1.72604    931 
Intercept_E          -0.76166     0.09908   -7.69      1.5e-14  ***    -0.95608    -0.56633    734 
Intercept_D           0.31437     0.09768    3.22     0.001289  **      0.12721     0.50754    641 
Intercept_C           1.58196     0.10580   14.95    1.513e-50  ***     1.37956     1.79359    716 
Intercept_B           3.39349     0.13188   25.73   5.137e-146  ***     3.14237     3.66279    960 
gcseav_12345         -2.30912     0.08072  -28.61   5.322e-180  ***    -2.47085    -2.15451   2392 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.44404     0.05060   -8.78      1.7e-18  ***    -0.54043    -0.34433   2709 
genderfemale_12345    0.73837     0.09471    7.80    6.367e-15  ***     0.55286     0.92447   2026 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                                      Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_gcseav_12345                    0.13082     0.07348      0.02334     0.30422    268 
cov_gcseav_12345_Intercept_12345   -0.03103     0.06877     -0.16806     0.10612    811 
var_Intercept_12345                 0.61307     0.13375      0.38416     0.90682   1826 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept_12345", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 300, "sigma2v6")
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ############################################################################
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   9.03    1.60  206.18