R version 4.4.1 (2024-06-14 ucrt) -- "Race for Your Life"
Copyright (C) 2024 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64

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Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

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> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 10  Modelling Binary Responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2024 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.11/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> # Change contrasts if wish to avoid warning indicating that, by default,
> # specified contrasts for ordered predictors will be ignored by runMLwiN
> # (they will be fitted as "contr.treatment" regardless of this setting). To
> # enable specified contrasts, set allowcontrast to TRUE (this will be the
> # default in future package releases). NB at the end of this script, the
> # specification for contrasts is changed back.
> my_contrasts <- options("contrasts")$contrasts
> options(contrasts = c(unordered = "contr.treatment",
+                       ordered = "contr.treatment"))
> 
> # As an alternative to changing contrasts, can instead use C() to specify
> # contrasts for ordered predictors in formula object, e.g.:
> 
> # (mymodel3 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + C(lc, "contr.treatment"),
> #                       D = "Binomial",
> #                       estoptions = list(EstM = 1),
> #                       data = bang1,
> #                       allowcontrast = TRUE))
> 
> # User's input if necessary
> 
> ## Read bang1 data
> data(bang1, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> # 10.1 Simple logistic regression model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130
> 
> (mymodel1 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2589.951603
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2590.870573
Adapting finished and took 300 iterations
Adapting took 300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.646899
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.408544
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.703242
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.578707
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.143776
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.497722
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.866468
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.366495
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2601.081625
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2590.826384

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.768209
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.974846
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.681292
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.029755
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.956166
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.700843
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.249050
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.764631
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.215259
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.583255
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.738290
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2599.665863
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.851598
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.064439
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.602086
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.016924
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.673363
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.401756
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.806336
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.859640
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.674262
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.332550
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.929091
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.027123
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.651481
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.305020
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.219008
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.793939
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.448211
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.191911
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.086373
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.539469
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.927492
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.508995
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.905070
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.755927
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.259256
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.056615
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.229959
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.161462
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.898548
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.782298
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.749425
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.438829
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.692805
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.387252
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.241413
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.300298
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.469366
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.291484
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.115828
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.134031
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.254941
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.757296
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491965
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.248874
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.171248
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.329180
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.887602
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.460348
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.804734
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.476827
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.524551
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.356007
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.321576
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.285680
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197588
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.992028
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.900265
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613041
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.566051
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.248283
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.675361
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.528497
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.472607
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815054
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.423243
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.429422
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500183
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.090979
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.064172
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.588351
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.532194
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2600.825764
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.877217
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.619297
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.853876
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.211902
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.607546
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.407865
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.268036
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.484512
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.891584
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.687159
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.627120
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.106576
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.048963
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.781838
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.584549
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.501194
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2591.3
S.D.    =          1.9941
S.E.M.  =        0.028200

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 2.61s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2591.294   2589.293   2.001      2593.294   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.43858     0.04731  -9.27   1.863e-20  ***    -0.53074    -0.34677   1100 
age          0.00681     0.00509   1.34      0.1803         -0.00333     0.01649   1145 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> summary(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     6.814e-03      5.086e-03      7.193e-05      1.503e-04 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

     2.5%       25%       50%       75%     97.5% 
-0.003334  0.003406  0.006793  0.010430  0.016486 

> sixway(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age", drop = FALSE], "beta_1")
> 
> ## 15,000 iterations
> (mymodel2 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 15000)), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2589.951603
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2590.870573
Adapting finished and took 300 iterations
Adapting took 300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.646899
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.408544
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.703242
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.578707
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.143776
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.497722
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.866468
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.366495
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2601.081625
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2590.826384

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 15000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 15000, Stored update 50 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.768209
Actual update 100 of 15000, Stored update 100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.974846
Actual update 150 of 15000, Stored update 150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.681292
Actual update 200 of 15000, Stored update 200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.029755
Actual update 250 of 15000, Stored update 250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.956166
Actual update 300 of 15000, Stored update 300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.700843
Actual update 350 of 15000, Stored update 350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.249050
Actual update 400 of 15000, Stored update 400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.764631
Actual update 450 of 15000, Stored update 450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.215259
Actual update 500 of 15000, Stored update 500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.583255
Actual update 550 of 15000, Stored update 550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.738290
Actual update 600 of 15000, Stored update 600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2599.665863
Actual update 650 of 15000, Stored update 650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.851598
Actual update 700 of 15000, Stored update 700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.064439
Actual update 750 of 15000, Stored update 750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.602086
Actual update 800 of 15000, Stored update 800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.016924
Actual update 850 of 15000, Stored update 850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.673363
Actual update 900 of 15000, Stored update 900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.401756
Actual update 950 of 15000, Stored update 950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.806336
Actual update 1000 of 15000, Stored update 1000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.859640
Actual update 1050 of 15000, Stored update 1050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.674262
Actual update 1100 of 15000, Stored update 1100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.332550
Actual update 1150 of 15000, Stored update 1150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.929091
Actual update 1200 of 15000, Stored update 1200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.027123
Actual update 1250 of 15000, Stored update 1250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.651481
Actual update 1300 of 15000, Stored update 1300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.305020
Actual update 1350 of 15000, Stored update 1350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.219008
Actual update 1400 of 15000, Stored update 1400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.793939
Actual update 1450 of 15000, Stored update 1450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.448211
Actual update 1500 of 15000, Stored update 1500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.191911
Actual update 1550 of 15000, Stored update 1550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.086373
Actual update 1600 of 15000, Stored update 1600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.539469
Actual update 1650 of 15000, Stored update 1650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.927492
Actual update 1700 of 15000, Stored update 1700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.508995
Actual update 1750 of 15000, Stored update 1750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.905070
Actual update 1800 of 15000, Stored update 1800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.755927
Actual update 1850 of 15000, Stored update 1850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.259256
Actual update 1900 of 15000, Stored update 1900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.056615
Actual update 1950 of 15000, Stored update 1950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.229959
Actual update 2000 of 15000, Stored update 2000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.161462
Actual update 2050 of 15000, Stored update 2050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.898548
Actual update 2100 of 15000, Stored update 2100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.782298
Actual update 2150 of 15000, Stored update 2150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.749425
Actual update 2200 of 15000, Stored update 2200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.438829
Actual update 2250 of 15000, Stored update 2250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.692805
Actual update 2300 of 15000, Stored update 2300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.387252
Actual update 2350 of 15000, Stored update 2350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.241413
Actual update 2400 of 15000, Stored update 2400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.300298
Actual update 2450 of 15000, Stored update 2450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.469366
Actual update 2500 of 15000, Stored update 2500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.291484
Actual update 2550 of 15000, Stored update 2550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.115828
Actual update 2600 of 15000, Stored update 2600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.134031
Actual update 2650 of 15000, Stored update 2650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.254941
Actual update 2700 of 15000, Stored update 2700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.757296
Actual update 2750 of 15000, Stored update 2750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491965
Actual update 2800 of 15000, Stored update 2800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.248874
Actual update 2850 of 15000, Stored update 2850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.171248
Actual update 2900 of 15000, Stored update 2900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.329180
Actual update 2950 of 15000, Stored update 2950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.887602
Actual update 3000 of 15000, Stored update 3000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.460348
Actual update 3050 of 15000, Stored update 3050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.804734
Actual update 3100 of 15000, Stored update 3100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.476827
Actual update 3150 of 15000, Stored update 3150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.524551
Actual update 3200 of 15000, Stored update 3200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.356007
Actual update 3250 of 15000, Stored update 3250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.321576
Actual update 3300 of 15000, Stored update 3300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.285680
Actual update 3350 of 15000, Stored update 3350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197588
Actual update 3400 of 15000, Stored update 3400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.992028
Actual update 3450 of 15000, Stored update 3450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.900265
Actual update 3500 of 15000, Stored update 3500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613041
Actual update 3550 of 15000, Stored update 3550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.566051
Actual update 3600 of 15000, Stored update 3600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.248283
Actual update 3650 of 15000, Stored update 3650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.675361
Actual update 3700 of 15000, Stored update 3700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.528497
Actual update 3750 of 15000, Stored update 3750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.472607
Actual update 3800 of 15000, Stored update 3800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815054
Actual update 3850 of 15000, Stored update 3850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.423243
Actual update 3900 of 15000, Stored update 3900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.429422
Actual update 3950 of 15000, Stored update 3950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500183
Actual update 4000 of 15000, Stored update 4000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.090979
Actual update 4050 of 15000, Stored update 4050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.064172
Actual update 4100 of 15000, Stored update 4100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.588351
Actual update 4150 of 15000, Stored update 4150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.532194
Actual update 4200 of 15000, Stored update 4200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2600.825764
Actual update 4250 of 15000, Stored update 4250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.877217
Actual update 4300 of 15000, Stored update 4300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.619297
Actual update 4350 of 15000, Stored update 4350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.853876
Actual update 4400 of 15000, Stored update 4400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.211902
Actual update 4450 of 15000, Stored update 4450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.607546
Actual update 4500 of 15000, Stored update 4500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.407865
Actual update 4550 of 15000, Stored update 4550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.268036
Actual update 4600 of 15000, Stored update 4600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.484512
Actual update 4650 of 15000, Stored update 4650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.891584
Actual update 4700 of 15000, Stored update 4700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.687159
Actual update 4750 of 15000, Stored update 4750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.627120
Actual update 4800 of 15000, Stored update 4800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.106576
Actual update 4850 of 15000, Stored update 4850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.048963
Actual update 4900 of 15000, Stored update 4900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.781838
Actual update 4950 of 15000, Stored update 4950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.584549
Actual update 5000 of 15000, Stored update 5000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.501194
Actual update 5050 of 15000, Stored update 5050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.326785
Actual update 5100 of 15000, Stored update 5100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.897769
Actual update 5150 of 15000, Stored update 5150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.727437
Actual update 5200 of 15000, Stored update 5200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.311384
Actual update 5250 of 15000, Stored update 5250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.833062
Actual update 5300 of 15000, Stored update 5300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.147899
Actual update 5350 of 15000, Stored update 5350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.559319
Actual update 5400 of 15000, Stored update 5400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.140640
Actual update 5450 of 15000, Stored update 5450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.315305
Actual update 5500 of 15000, Stored update 5500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500863
Actual update 5550 of 15000, Stored update 5550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.371565
Actual update 5600 of 15000, Stored update 5600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.953330
Actual update 5650 of 15000, Stored update 5650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.371833
Actual update 5700 of 15000, Stored update 5700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.840891
Actual update 5750 of 15000, Stored update 5750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.173621
Actual update 5800 of 15000, Stored update 5800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.778510
Actual update 5850 of 15000, Stored update 5850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.685790
Actual update 5900 of 15000, Stored update 5900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.110700
Actual update 5950 of 15000, Stored update 5950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.658122
Actual update 6000 of 15000, Stored update 6000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.781574
Actual update 6050 of 15000, Stored update 6050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.308886
Actual update 6100 of 15000, Stored update 6100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.040881
Actual update 6150 of 15000, Stored update 6150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.451545
Actual update 6200 of 15000, Stored update 6200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.759446
Actual update 6250 of 15000, Stored update 6250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.234311
Actual update 6300 of 15000, Stored update 6300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.918111
Actual update 6350 of 15000, Stored update 6350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.403790
Actual update 6400 of 15000, Stored update 6400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.888412
Actual update 6450 of 15000, Stored update 6450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.630759
Actual update 6500 of 15000, Stored update 6500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.121933
Actual update 6550 of 15000, Stored update 6550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.775539
Actual update 6600 of 15000, Stored update 6600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.366354
Actual update 6650 of 15000, Stored update 6650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.896814
Actual update 6700 of 15000, Stored update 6700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.432262
Actual update 6750 of 15000, Stored update 6750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.144790
Actual update 6800 of 15000, Stored update 6800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.888364
Actual update 6850 of 15000, Stored update 6850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.653521
Actual update 6900 of 15000, Stored update 6900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.598193
Actual update 6950 of 15000, Stored update 6950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.533812
Actual update 7000 of 15000, Stored update 7000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.117119
Actual update 7050 of 15000, Stored update 7050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.710367
Actual update 7100 of 15000, Stored update 7100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.445705
Actual update 7150 of 15000, Stored update 7150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.902012
Actual update 7200 of 15000, Stored update 7200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.494178
Actual update 7250 of 15000, Stored update 7250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.129225
Actual update 7300 of 15000, Stored update 7300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.684554
Actual update 7350 of 15000, Stored update 7350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.503688
Actual update 7400 of 15000, Stored update 7400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.659162
Actual update 7450 of 15000, Stored update 7450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.280975
Actual update 7500 of 15000, Stored update 7500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.077884
Actual update 7550 of 15000, Stored update 7550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.611580
Actual update 7600 of 15000, Stored update 7600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.480002
Actual update 7650 of 15000, Stored update 7650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.226368
Actual update 7700 of 15000, Stored update 7700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.463220
Actual update 7750 of 15000, Stored update 7750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.377009
Actual update 7800 of 15000, Stored update 7800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.387892
Actual update 7850 of 15000, Stored update 7850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.653876
Actual update 7900 of 15000, Stored update 7900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.291884
Actual update 7950 of 15000, Stored update 7950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.746536
Actual update 8000 of 15000, Stored update 8000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.979617
Actual update 8050 of 15000, Stored update 8050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303303
Actual update 8100 of 15000, Stored update 8100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.554749
Actual update 8150 of 15000, Stored update 8150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.628758
Actual update 8200 of 15000, Stored update 8200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.773838
Actual update 8250 of 15000, Stored update 8250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303772
Actual update 8300 of 15000, Stored update 8300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.394990
Actual update 8350 of 15000, Stored update 8350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.821110
Actual update 8400 of 15000, Stored update 8400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.453836
Actual update 8450 of 15000, Stored update 8450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.332968
Actual update 8500 of 15000, Stored update 8500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.486810
Actual update 8550 of 15000, Stored update 8550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.436534
Actual update 8600 of 15000, Stored update 8600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.348255
Actual update 8650 of 15000, Stored update 8650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.373805
Actual update 8700 of 15000, Stored update 8700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.105508
Actual update 8750 of 15000, Stored update 8750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491970
Actual update 8800 of 15000, Stored update 8800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.586307
Actual update 8850 of 15000, Stored update 8850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.485480
Actual update 8900 of 15000, Stored update 8900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.251231
Actual update 8950 of 15000, Stored update 8950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.029715
Actual update 9000 of 15000, Stored update 9000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.617251
Actual update 9050 of 15000, Stored update 9050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.808902
Actual update 9100 of 15000, Stored update 9100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.481561
Actual update 9150 of 15000, Stored update 9150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.114245
Actual update 9200 of 15000, Stored update 9200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.462257
Actual update 9250 of 15000, Stored update 9250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.989261
Actual update 9300 of 15000, Stored update 9300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.869022
Actual update 9350 of 15000, Stored update 9350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.313826
Actual update 9400 of 15000, Stored update 9400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.057443
Actual update 9450 of 15000, Stored update 9450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.381670
Actual update 9500 of 15000, Stored update 9500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.974644
Actual update 9550 of 15000, Stored update 9550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.204999
Actual update 9600 of 15000, Stored update 9600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.944681
Actual update 9650 of 15000, Stored update 9650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.782511
Actual update 9700 of 15000, Stored update 9700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.435815
Actual update 9750 of 15000, Stored update 9750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.559156
Actual update 9800 of 15000, Stored update 9800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.499589
Actual update 9850 of 15000, Stored update 9850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.445607
Actual update 9900 of 15000, Stored update 9900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.932187
Actual update 9950 of 15000, Stored update 9950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.356364
Actual update 10000 of 15000, Stored update 10000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.103185
Actual update 10050 of 15000, Stored update 10050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.698784
Actual update 10100 of 15000, Stored update 10100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.407493
Actual update 10150 of 15000, Stored update 10150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.073081
Actual update 10200 of 15000, Stored update 10200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.501938
Actual update 10250 of 15000, Stored update 10250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.166202
Actual update 10300 of 15000, Stored update 10300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.526353
Actual update 10350 of 15000, Stored update 10350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.828928
Actual update 10400 of 15000, Stored update 10400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.321502
Actual update 10450 of 15000, Stored update 10450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.509723
Actual update 10500 of 15000, Stored update 10500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.475855
Actual update 10550 of 15000, Stored update 10550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.427423
Actual update 10600 of 15000, Stored update 10600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.048312
Actual update 10650 of 15000, Stored update 10650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.504689
Actual update 10700 of 15000, Stored update 10700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.343214
Actual update 10750 of 15000, Stored update 10750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.736323
Actual update 10800 of 15000, Stored update 10800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.644299
Actual update 10850 of 15000, Stored update 10850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.167835
Actual update 10900 of 15000, Stored update 10900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.091200
Actual update 10950 of 15000, Stored update 10950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.089911
Actual update 11000 of 15000, Stored update 11000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.850856
Actual update 11050 of 15000, Stored update 11050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.095667
Actual update 11100 of 15000, Stored update 11100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.399195
Actual update 11150 of 15000, Stored update 11150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.933732
Actual update 11200 of 15000, Stored update 11200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613510
Actual update 11250 of 15000, Stored update 11250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.333869
Actual update 11300 of 15000, Stored update 11300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.055213
Actual update 11350 of 15000, Stored update 11350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.012338
Actual update 11400 of 15000, Stored update 11400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.824617
Actual update 11450 of 15000, Stored update 11450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.577698
Actual update 11500 of 15000, Stored update 11500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.792105
Actual update 11550 of 15000, Stored update 11550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.720343
Actual update 11600 of 15000, Stored update 11600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.559781
Actual update 11650 of 15000, Stored update 11650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303467
Actual update 11700 of 15000, Stored update 11700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.641581
Actual update 11750 of 15000, Stored update 11750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.095896
Actual update 11800 of 15000, Stored update 11800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.635515
Actual update 11850 of 15000, Stored update 11850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.850313
Actual update 11900 of 15000, Stored update 11900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2598.108508
Actual update 11950 of 15000, Stored update 11950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.598688
Actual update 12000 of 15000, Stored update 12000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.069221
Actual update 12050 of 15000, Stored update 12050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.594538
Actual update 12100 of 15000, Stored update 12100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.082492
Actual update 12150 of 15000, Stored update 12150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.284010
Actual update 12200 of 15000, Stored update 12200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.571265
Actual update 12250 of 15000, Stored update 12250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197795
Actual update 12300 of 15000, Stored update 12300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.892149
Actual update 12350 of 15000, Stored update 12350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.950196
Actual update 12400 of 15000, Stored update 12400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.446674
Actual update 12450 of 15000, Stored update 12450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.668784
Actual update 12500 of 15000, Stored update 12500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.134181
Actual update 12550 of 15000, Stored update 12550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.827360
Actual update 12600 of 15000, Stored update 12600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2597.436190
Actual update 12650 of 15000, Stored update 12650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.581883
Actual update 12700 of 15000, Stored update 12700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.761127
Actual update 12750 of 15000, Stored update 12750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.511492
Actual update 12800 of 15000, Stored update 12800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.970981
Actual update 12850 of 15000, Stored update 12850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.205208
Actual update 12900 of 15000, Stored update 12900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815426
Actual update 12950 of 15000, Stored update 12950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.527739
Actual update 13000 of 15000, Stored update 13000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.375354
Actual update 13050 of 15000, Stored update 13050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.161721
Actual update 13100 of 15000, Stored update 13100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.165646
Actual update 13150 of 15000, Stored update 13150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.615933
Actual update 13200 of 15000, Stored update 13200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.661689
Actual update 13250 of 15000, Stored update 13250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.934058
Actual update 13300 of 15000, Stored update 13300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.331196
Actual update 13350 of 15000, Stored update 13350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.348267
Actual update 13400 of 15000, Stored update 13400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.710108
Actual update 13450 of 15000, Stored update 13450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.526088
Actual update 13500 of 15000, Stored update 13500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.427714
Actual update 13550 of 15000, Stored update 13550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.175138
Actual update 13600 of 15000, Stored update 13600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.952247
Actual update 13650 of 15000, Stored update 13650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.174863
Actual update 13700 of 15000, Stored update 13700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.311362
Actual update 13750 of 15000, Stored update 13750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.774428
Actual update 13800 of 15000, Stored update 13800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.721112
Actual update 13850 of 15000, Stored update 13850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.389233
Actual update 13900 of 15000, Stored update 13900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.749576
Actual update 13950 of 15000, Stored update 13950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.321777
Actual update 14000 of 15000, Stored update 14000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.834873
Actual update 14050 of 15000, Stored update 14050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.539435
Actual update 14100 of 15000, Stored update 14100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.407257
Actual update 14150 of 15000, Stored update 14150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.058782
Actual update 14200 of 15000, Stored update 14200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.064583
Actual update 14250 of 15000, Stored update 14250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.425419
Actual update 14300 of 15000, Stored update 14300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.399230
Actual update 14350 of 15000, Stored update 14350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.494608
Actual update 14400 of 15000, Stored update 14400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.053985
Actual update 14450 of 15000, Stored update 14450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.194388
Actual update 14500 of 15000, Stored update 14500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.062828
Actual update 14550 of 15000, Stored update 14550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.740512
Actual update 14600 of 15000, Stored update 14600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.109076
Actual update 14650 of 15000, Stored update 14650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.027349
Actual update 14700 of 15000, Stored update 14700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.953809
Actual update 14750 of 15000, Stored update 14750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.698469
Actual update 14800 of 15000, Stored update 14800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.715286
Actual update 14850 of 15000, Stored update 14850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.430721
Actual update 14900 of 15000, Stored update 14900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.878858
Actual update 14950 of 15000, Stored update 14950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.092206
Actual update 15000 of 15000, Stored update 15000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.782512
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          15000
Average =          2591.3
S.D.    =          2.0089
S.E.M.  =        0.016403

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 6.84s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 15000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2591.304   2589.291   2.013      2593.317   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.43823     0.04679  -9.37   7.521e-21  ***    -0.53056    -0.34731   3424 
age          0.00652     0.00518   1.26       0.208         -0.00361     0.01655   3369 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   15000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> sixway(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age", drop = FALSE], "beta_1")
> 
> ## Change to 5000 iterations by default
> (mymodel3 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2522.069466
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2522.416460
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2516.684417
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2516.993245
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2520.230429
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2528.418285
Adapting finished and took 700 iterations
Adapting took 700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2521.350620
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2518.991520
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2524.139464
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2525.128730
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.385636
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.604872
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2530.633208
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.194512
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2524.627148
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2517.921333

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.401170
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.361644
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.392425
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.902030
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.220252
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.581058
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.294267
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.778515
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.632855
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.018024
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.540300
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.453744
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.561308
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.890592
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.995611
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.161853
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.224471
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.684330
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.299710
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.386532
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.072426
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.876939
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.512926
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.180191
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.409675
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.904756
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.041903
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.126984
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.863607
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.189684
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.049213
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.557101
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.570475
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.959927
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.054060
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.245956
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.709562
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.032966
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.113473
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.094458
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.180995
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.713002
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.333332
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.129678
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.624761
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.451814
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.453340
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.114356
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.968311
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.267346
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.446068
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.022467
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2515.718454
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2515.277034
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.268438
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.721614
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.080543
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.349438
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.359523
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.820491
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.502575
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.059309
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.714517
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.094055
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.872935
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2526.970300
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.461122
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.238450
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.300191
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.006096
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.087775
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.974317
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.610732
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.409179
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.271533
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.897440
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.702722
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.171242
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.330213
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.137911
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.257549
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.333539
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.940271
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2531.771361
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.079348
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.620876
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.270454
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.067912
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.960184
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.194420
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.615242
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.373627
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.623101
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.160253
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.183178
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.667417
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.814486
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.635186
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.990584
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.208024
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2520.0
S.D.    =          3.0513
S.E.M.  =        0.043152

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.65s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2519.985   2515.101   4.884      2524.869   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.25731     0.11725  -10.72   7.938e-27  ***    -1.50365    -1.04494    88 
age              -0.02167     0.00730   -2.97     0.00299  **     -0.03688    -0.00758   204 
lcOne_child       1.02331     0.15568    6.57    4.92e-11  ***     0.73013     1.34527   200 
lcTwo_children    1.17855     0.16265    7.25   4.295e-13  ***     0.86548     1.49371   181 
lcThree_plus      1.10458     0.17117    6.45   1.095e-10  ***     0.78861     1.45592    98 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 10.2 Random effects logistic regression model . . . . . . . . . . . . .136
> 
> (mymodel4 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2425.393650
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2382.487828
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2385.557160
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2389.249434
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2396.753912
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2385.561122
Adapting finished and took 700 iterations
Adapting took 700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2402.539335
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2413.603520
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2393.031520
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2411.577557
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2416.661355
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2377.030943
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2380.359391
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2388.282301
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2406.932703
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2388.040523

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.795242
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.259815
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.353754
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.547656
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.307375
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.261502
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.333095
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2409.432187
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.920531
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.578419
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.197819
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.415609
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2379.272397
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.595826
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2389.566807
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2413.418452
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.730325
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.781112
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.850386
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2385.810316
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.141197
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.187915
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.372359
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.316577
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.864286
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.926430
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.402731
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.308915
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.716238
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.258494
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.749927
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2413.148994
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.183476
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2415.614471
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2416.888603
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.985020
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.185077
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.576564
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.691488
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.193762
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.184006
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.416844
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2387.247023
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.218179
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.747352
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2433.881448
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.719907
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2392.773726
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.511973
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2414.345850
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.803190
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2401.863667
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.683013
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2423.940940
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.428829
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.617785
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.795467
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2405.824001
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.762395
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2415.448866
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.589817
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.868309
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.208274
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2400.947262
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.401979
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.971499
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2419.483230
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.387849
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.199828
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2417.038566
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.494838
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2416.222045
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.476729
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2407.427802
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2420.462965
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.413847
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.401094
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.069542
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.149426
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.126517
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.747377
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.599606
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.440217
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2420.537137
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.850680
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.376380
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.193846
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.137560
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.189229
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.031171
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.518564
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.615160
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.210370
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2396.921396
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2401.349428
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.099835
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.618286
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.476338
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2392.363952
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.052484
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2396.3
S.D.    =          11.747
S.E.M.  =         0.16613

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 6.03s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2396.324   2355.120   41.204     2437.528   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.48934     0.13771  -10.82   2.919e-27  ***    -1.76712    -1.22862    94 
age              -0.02604     0.00773   -3.37   0.0007579  ***    -0.04114    -0.01136   287 
lcOne_child       1.11009     0.15247    7.28   3.317e-13  ***     0.81361     1.41775   273 
lcTwo_children    1.32959     0.16892    7.87   3.511e-15  ***     1.00613     1.66664   164 
lcThree_plus      1.30533     0.16875    7.74    1.03e-14  ***     0.98436     1.62393   127 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.30225     0.09800      0.15032     0.53346   456 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> summary(mymodel4@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
      0.302251       0.097995       0.001386       0.004590 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

  2.5%    25%    50%    75%  97.5% 
0.1503 0.2308 0.2894 0.3595 0.5335 

> sixway(mymodel4@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 10.3 Random coefficients for area type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
> 
> (mymodel5 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2386.517555
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2376.620871
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2369.470856
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2400.188422
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2350.717855
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2373.762793
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2365.344941
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2352.533671
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2361.405893
Adapting finished and took 1000 iterations
Adapting took 1000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2392.853760
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2364.089600
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2376.275962
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2365.643922
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2356.830961
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2380.059050
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2358.768999
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2353.215231
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2358.729162
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2387.164408

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.431924
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.978350
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.301696
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.612057
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.428561
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.089361
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.310478
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.223416
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.566438
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.833624
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.169501
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.545288
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.029554
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2387.839503
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2370.982699
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.265064
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.624596
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.798537
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.709044
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.286237
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.628302
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.855090
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.465195
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.660372
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.002448
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.934092
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.496132
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.991644
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.959361
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.596966
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2376.541497
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.269910
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.442307
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.792451
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.240275
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.176119
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.208133
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2386.598907
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.871195
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.403600
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.742756
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.111363
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.739785
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.576045
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.942845
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.216161
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.895892
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.055887
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2379.718731
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.235876
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.191827
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.939505
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.033868
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.630003
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.396449
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2358.510964
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.534042
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.881210
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2376.992658
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2352.477978
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.659548
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.061106
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.432812
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.381817
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.438988
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.952813
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.881511
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.937277
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.233771
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.140686
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.676178
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.729099
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.329068
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.645231
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.814727
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.560319
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.071946
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.246268
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.751327
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.820726
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.163382
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.565113
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.958908
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.918883
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.587190
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.850844
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.356064
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.264688
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.798108
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2389.327311
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.068108
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.127170
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.082439
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.119824
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.691330
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.469377
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.244368
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.198974
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.164884
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.654662
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2370.4
S.D.    =          11.588
S.E.M.  =         0.16388

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 7.06s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2370.448   2331.268   39.180     2409.628   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.72263     0.15643  -11.01   3.326e-28  ***    -2.04037    -1.43455    79 
age              -0.02734     0.00850   -3.22    0.001294  **     -0.04505    -0.01129   187 
lcOne_child       1.12891     0.16471    6.85   7.182e-12  ***     0.80402     1.44924   164 
lcTwo_children    1.38675     0.18073    7.67   1.679e-14  ***     1.05808     1.75907   111 
lcThree_plus      1.37409     0.19991    6.87   6.259e-12  ***     1.00891     1.78948    97 
urbanUrban        0.73922     0.11678    6.33   2.448e-10  ***     0.50709     0.96645   511 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.23443     0.08516      0.09853     0.43194   293 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> (mymodel6 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2376.297480
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2329.737140
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2315.618096
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2348.619470
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2309.544641
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2310.365457
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2349.205756
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2327.681001
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2331.231358
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2319.247877
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2330.925172
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2316.529762
Adapting finished and took 1300 iterations
Adapting took 1300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2342.485507
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2327.535661
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2333.598976
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2325.301751
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2314.067030
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2324.739343
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2344.820810
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2320.161725
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2337.356611
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2346.133715

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.082268
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.160441
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.911534
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.933004
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.917615
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.237189
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.174201
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.515325
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.910751
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.951677
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.506904
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.070219
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.479693
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.194511
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.286172
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.275618
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.339297
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.417819
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.377833
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.958845
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.243933
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.611220
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2350.046794
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2348.565443
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.256604
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.558487
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.553881
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2293.486241
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2351.314339
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.260367
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.591472
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.154549
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.797452
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.531172
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.754172
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.517615
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.005877
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.391833
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.586354
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.860786
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.496474
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.038729
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.870695
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.509747
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.116528
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.056209
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.315319
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.870506
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.096127
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.721197
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.865600
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.746665
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.178325
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.940171
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.376615
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.421760
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.622785
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.305688
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.337285
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.357558
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.191902
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.537656
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.345624
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.136993
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2356.000632
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.824932
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.171189
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.380876
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.816654
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.694920
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.284380
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.939826
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.652421
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.666763
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.453875
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.658334
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.663361
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.113397
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.438082
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.003320
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.665984
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.926547
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2299.588300
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.058572
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.439428
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.983847
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.164519
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.002882
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.549191
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.409418
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.337239
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.796345
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.771897
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.739075
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.813443
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.365957
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.580218
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.609452
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.934251
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.227544
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2328.8
S.D.    =          14.409
S.E.M.  =         0.20377

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 8.63s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2328.815   2271.289   57.526     2386.341   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.72473     0.16083  -10.72   7.836e-27  ***    -2.05706    -1.43692    70 
age              -0.02700     0.00778   -3.47   0.0005233  ***    -0.04244    -0.01167   262 
lcOne_child       1.14050     0.16106    7.08   1.429e-12  ***     0.84436     1.46480   238 
lcTwo_children    1.37161     0.17138    8.00   1.213e-15  ***     1.03770     1.69819   181 
lcThree_plus      1.36622     0.17681    7.73   1.099e-14  ***     1.02367     1.72014   101 
urbanUrban        0.83065     0.19203    4.33   1.521e-05  ***     0.45912     1.21550   101 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.43398     0.14962      0.20802     0.78321   145 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.45879     0.19583     -0.90707    -0.15957    97 
var_urbanUrban              0.77209     0.35890      0.27457     1.65919    90 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 10.4 Probit regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
> 
> # 10.5 Running a probit regression in MLwiN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142
> 
> ## Gibbs
> (mymodel7 <- runMLwiN(probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(fixM = 1, residM = 1)), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 2 1 1 2
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2349.663465
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2347.835474
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2321.132178
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2299.777329
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2318.472523
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2323.091020
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2337.602076
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2323.823258
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2335.270790
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2314.997421

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.273252
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.289882
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2358.412264
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.671637
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.047241
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.576780
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.631556
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2300.238175
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.846796
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.436549
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.885065
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.706582
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.212459
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.104005
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.789336
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.719783
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.383630
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.358245
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.619651
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.400477
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.821243
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.355743
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.898192
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.377310
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.774344
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.899102
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.496401
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.888339
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.813642
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.555971
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.783412
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.205086
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.338184
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.814901
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.343272
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.911187
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2352.436250
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.162266
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.941046
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.320248
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.410188
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.227860
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.127130
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.779340
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.255759
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.264580
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.399543
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.998963
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.047957
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.470403
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.832100
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.841531
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.286635
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.976646
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2352.157597
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.740289
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.961693
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.002327
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.040024
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.085203
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.433436
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.602731
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.165146
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.889373
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.851868
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.473435
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.079896
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.953273
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.694214
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.691360
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2301.994329
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.646503
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.016334
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2297.745229
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.112418
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.752064
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.250909
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.240111
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.405078
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2293.704502
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.251539
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.686250
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.737088
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.297317
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.047944
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.682814
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.970829
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.589770
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.366061
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.701962
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.721353
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.921590
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.478707
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.640307
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.384396
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.927812
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.666093
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.889416
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.438419
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.486582
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2327.6
S.D.    =          13.853
S.E.M.  =         0.19591

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.53s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2327.589   2271.076   56.513     2384.103   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept        -1.04158     0.09781  -10.65   1.759e-26  ***    -1.23233    -0.85163    741 
age              -0.01626     0.00482   -3.37   0.0007446  ***    -0.02599    -0.00677   1804 
lcOne_child       0.68774     0.09698    7.09   1.328e-12  ***     0.49476     0.87457   1761 
lcTwo_children    0.82377     0.10632    7.75   9.313e-15  ***     0.61720     1.03375   1774 
lcThree_plus      0.82647     0.10850    7.62   2.587e-14  ***     0.61523     1.04174   1681 
urbanUrban        0.49563     0.10567    4.69   2.729e-06  ***     0.28846     0.69749    668 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.15806     0.05045      0.07922     0.27201   798 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.16416     0.06736     -0.31634    -0.05526   579 
var_urbanUrban              0.27265     0.11658      0.10196     0.55624   455 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## Univariate MH by default
> (mymodel8 <- runMLwiN(probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2320.266522
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2340.797308
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2318.897400
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2335.428604
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2326.197606
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2307.969587
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2306.595854
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2325.598680
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2330.712795
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2335.465633
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2328.382917
Adapting finished and took 1200 iterations
Adapting took 1200 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2337.052673
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2329.761604
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2329.110588
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2333.371604
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2338.910540
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2304.426211
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2313.005094
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2308.526574
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2318.679874
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2366.195028

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.111886
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.796119
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.159524
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.310947
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.577483
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.010574
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.922571
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.994845
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.213841
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2356.704386
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.531232
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.497993
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.864070
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.040265
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2306.247513
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.739462
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.037817
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2306.659433
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.391369
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.243228
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.192704
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.956642
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2365.784325
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.859806
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.107073
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.501217
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.486198
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.770400
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.950832
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2301.523009
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.548334
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.116955
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.781919
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.270198
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.648247
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.021380
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.247850
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.601829
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.639737
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.488511
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.526582
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.498561
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.877962
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.898186
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.329851
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.470115
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.510698
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.701882
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.889450
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2300.774774
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.999176
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.569754
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.048430
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2356.123745
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.867350
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.560725
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.877136
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.660331
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.442649
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.707587
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.132912
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.371875
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.179330
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.549415
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.463988
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.280514
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.893698
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.302900
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.246012
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.084941
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.890180
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.751378
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.801455
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.695354
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.793822
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.590725
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.993896
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.862768
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.290370
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.380995
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.830675
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.743210
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.417008
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.980508
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.209621
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.064949
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.861487
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.210240
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.575653
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.624912
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.211146
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.403238
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.818875
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.546399
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.615320
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.607262
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.361591
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.814282
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.787428
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.558544
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2327.3
S.D.    =          13.416
S.E.M.  =         0.18973

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 12.26s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2327.265   2270.548   56.717     2383.982   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.05583     0.09281  -11.38   5.512e-30  ***    -1.25313    -0.88473    73 
age              -0.01617     0.00500   -3.23    0.001218  **     -0.02629    -0.00681   179 
lcOne_child       0.69179     0.09702    7.13   1.001e-12  ***     0.49787     0.87248   181 
lcTwo_children    0.82898     0.10636    7.79   6.494e-15  ***     0.59965     1.03002   161 
lcThree_plus      0.82683     0.11372    7.27    3.57e-13  ***     0.59611     1.06281    96 
urbanUrban        0.51459     0.10735    4.79   1.639e-06  ***     0.30578     0.72010   120 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.15965     0.05253      0.08113     0.28185   193 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.16999     0.06933     -0.33817    -0.06681   114 
var_urbanUrban              0.28646     0.11810      0.12082     0.57696   127 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> if (!require(texreg)) {
+   warning("texreg package required to use screenreg() function")
+ } else {
+   screenreg(list(mymodel7, mymodel8), custom.model.names=c("Gibbs", "Metropolis"), groups = list("Fixed Part" = 1:6, "Level-2" = 7:9, "Level-1" = 10:10),
+    stars = numeric(0), include.nobs=FALSE, include.loglik=FALSE, include.deviance=FALSE, include.dbar=FALSE, include.dthetabar=FALSE, include.pd=FALSE, include.dic=FALSE)
+ }
Loading required package: texreg
Version:  1.39.3
Date:     2023-11-09
Author:   Philip Leifeld (University of Essex)

Consider submitting praise using the praise or praise_interactive functions.
Please cite the JSS article in your publications -- see citation("texreg").

================================================================
                                  Gibbs           Metropolis    
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed Part                                                      
                                                                
    FP_Intercept                   -1.04 *         -1.06 *      
                                  [-1.23; -0.85]  [-1.25; -0.88]
    FP_age                         -0.02 *         -0.02 *      
                                  [-0.03; -0.01]  [-0.03; -0.01]
    FP_lcOne_child                  0.69 *          0.69 *      
                                  [ 0.49;  0.87]  [ 0.50;  0.87]
    FP_lcTwo_children               0.82 *          0.83 *      
                                  [ 0.62;  1.03]  [ 0.60;  1.03]
    FP_lcThree_plus                 0.83 *          0.83 *      
                                  [ 0.62;  1.04]  [ 0.60;  1.06]
    FP_urbanUrban                   0.50 *          0.51 *      
                                  [ 0.29;  0.70]  [ 0.31;  0.72]
Level-2                                                         
                                                                
    RP2_var_Intercept               0.16 *          0.16 *      
                                  [ 0.08;  0.27]  [ 0.08;  0.28]
    RP2_cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.16 *         -0.17 *      
                                  [-0.32; -0.06]  [-0.34; -0.07]
    RP2_var_urbanUrban              0.27 *          0.29 *      
                                  [ 0.10;  0.56]  [ 0.12;  0.58]
Level-1                                                         
                                                                
    RP1_var_bcons_1                 1.00 *          1.00 *      
                                  [ 1.00;  1.00]  [ 1.00;  1.00]
================================================================
* Null hypothesis value outside the confidence interval.
> 
> if (!require(coda)) {
+   warning("package coda required to run this example")
+ } else {
+   cat("The effective sample sizes\n")
+   ESS.aa <- effectiveSize(mymodel7@chains[, 2:11])
+   ESS.bb <- effectiveSize(mymodel8@chains[, 2:11])
+   ctable <- cbind(round(ESS.aa), round(ESS.bb))
+   colnames(ctable) <- c("ESS(Gibbs)", "ESS(Metropolis)")
+   print(ctable)
+ }
Loading required package: coda
The effective sample sizes
                             ESS(Gibbs) ESS(Metropolis)
FP_Intercept                        741              73
FP_age                             1804             179
FP_lcOne_child                     1761             181
FP_lcTwo_children                  1774             161
FP_lcThree_plus                    1681              96
FP_urbanUrban                       668             120
RP2_var_Intercept                   798             193
RP2_cov_Intercept_urbanUrban        579             114
RP2_var_urbanUrban                  455             127
RP1_var_bcons_1                    5000            5000
> 
> # 10.6 Comparison with WinBUGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
> 
> mymodel9 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), BUGO = c(version = 4, 
+   n.chains = 1, debug = FALSE, seed = 1, OpenBugs = TRUE), data = bang1)
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed

Loading required namespace: R2OpenBUGS
> 
> summary(mymodel9)

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

                Mean        SD  Naive SE Time-series SE
beta[1]   -5.443e-01  0.089801 1.270e-03      3.311e-03
beta[2]    8.515e-03  0.005298 7.493e-05      7.701e-05
deviance   2.476e+03 10.964662 1.551e-01      2.418e-01
sigma2.u2  2.741e-01  0.089239 1.262e-03      2.966e-03
u2[1]     -4.502e-01  0.208777 2.953e-03      3.813e-03
u2[10]    -6.102e-01  0.416526 5.891e-03      7.231e-03
u2[11]    -9.979e-01  0.425491 6.017e-03      8.605e-03
u2[12]    -9.555e-02  0.317483 4.490e-03      5.151e-03
u2[13]     1.191e-01  0.329371 4.658e-03      5.057e-03
u2[14]     9.490e-01  0.201612 2.851e-03      4.825e-03
u2[15]    -1.443e-02  0.340739 4.819e-03      4.961e-03
u2[16]     4.369e-01  0.355188 5.023e-03      5.902e-03
u2[17]    -2.014e-01  0.341086 4.824e-03      4.986e-03
u2[18]    -8.040e-02  0.272126 3.848e-03      5.039e-03
u2[19]     3.967e-02  0.328499 4.646e-03      4.865e-03
u2[2]     -4.279e-02  0.352355 4.983e-03      5.171e-03
u2[20]     6.837e-02  0.373748 5.286e-03      6.009e-03
u2[21]     3.452e-02  0.356625 5.043e-03      5.468e-03
u2[22]    -4.297e-01  0.366195 5.179e-03      6.197e-03
u2[23]    -2.263e-01  0.379455 5.366e-03      5.366e-03
u2[24]    -6.367e-01  0.417792 5.908e-03      7.251e-03
u2[25]     2.779e-01  0.238187 3.368e-03      4.444e-03
u2[26]     1.830e-02  0.385775 5.456e-03      5.456e-03
u2[27]    -6.525e-01  0.305960 4.327e-03      5.561e-03
u2[28]    -4.303e-01  0.275779 3.900e-03      4.286e-03
u2[29]    -2.609e-01  0.315411 4.461e-03      4.966e-03
u2[3]      3.167e-01  0.502775 7.110e-03      7.861e-03
u2[30]     4.048e-01  0.246550 3.487e-03      4.593e-03
u2[31]     2.192e-01  0.303902 4.298e-03      5.133e-03
u2[32]    -4.439e-01  0.352597 4.986e-03      5.801e-03
u2[33]     1.048e-01  0.376305 5.322e-03      5.322e-03
u2[34]     8.070e-01  0.306514 4.335e-03      6.235e-03
u2[35]     4.101e-01  0.269205 3.807e-03      4.819e-03
u2[36]    -4.722e-02  0.366964 5.190e-03      5.433e-03
u2[37]     3.033e-01  0.386145 5.461e-03      6.098e-03
u2[38]    -2.020e-01  0.393925 5.571e-03      5.685e-03
u2[39]     3.341e-01  0.319763 4.522e-03      4.827e-03
u2[4]      3.570e-01  0.310134 4.386e-03      5.310e-03
u2[40]     2.685e-01  0.280284 3.964e-03      4.885e-03
u2[41]     3.346e-01  0.333334 4.714e-03      5.436e-03
u2[42]     3.018e-01  0.408959 5.784e-03      6.037e-03
u2[43]     5.082e-01  0.273935 3.874e-03      5.457e-03
u2[44]    -4.183e-01  0.346493 4.900e-03      5.347e-03
u2[45]    -9.349e-02  0.293793 4.155e-03      4.671e-03
u2[46]     5.418e-01  0.214931 3.040e-03      4.546e-03
u2[47]     1.776e-01  0.367425 5.196e-03      5.771e-03
u2[48]     4.642e-01  0.278017 3.932e-03      4.981e-03
u2[49]    -3.128e-01  0.485168 6.861e-03      7.425e-03
u2[5]     -2.235e-02  0.288865 4.085e-03      4.506e-03
u2[50]     2.365e-01  0.349387 4.941e-03      5.736e-03
u2[51]     2.770e-01  0.286289 4.049e-03      4.818e-03
u2[52]     2.532e-01  0.246446 3.485e-03      4.613e-03
u2[53]     1.121e-01  0.351896 4.977e-03      4.977e-03
u2[54]    -2.553e-01  0.445367 6.298e-03      6.992e-03
u2[55]     6.448e-01  0.273771 3.872e-03      5.579e-03
u2[56]    -5.319e-01  0.343878 4.863e-03      5.399e-03
u2[57]     2.313e-01  0.299321 4.233e-03      4.791e-03
u2[58]    -4.423e-01  0.429487 6.074e-03      6.793e-03
u2[59]    -4.468e-01  0.327391 4.630e-03      5.547e-03
u2[6]     -2.754e-01  0.247264 3.497e-03      4.288e-03
u2[60]    -5.150e-01  0.302313 4.275e-03      4.985e-03
u2[7]     -2.024e-01  0.370589 5.241e-03      5.834e-03
u2[8]      2.606e-02  0.292622 4.138e-03      4.727e-03
u2[9]     -1.680e-01  0.340981 4.822e-03      5.502e-03

2. Quantiles for each variable:

                2.5%        25%        50%        75%      97.5%
beta[1]   -7.231e-01 -6.038e-01 -5.434e-01   -0.48430   -0.36690
beta[2]   -1.841e-03  4.841e-03  8.528e-03    0.01213    0.01889
deviance   2.457e+03  2.469e+03  2.476e+03 2483.00000 2499.00000
sigma2.u2  1.369e-01  2.095e-01  2.615e-01    0.32643    0.47470
u2[1]     -8.712e-01 -5.868e-01 -4.450e-01   -0.30515   -0.04547
u2[10]    -1.500e+00 -8.711e-01 -5.971e-01   -0.32545    0.15490
u2[11]    -1.903e+00 -1.261e+00 -9.791e-01   -0.70340   -0.21077
u2[12]    -7.155e-01 -3.052e-01 -9.574e-02    0.11983    0.51893
u2[13]    -5.385e-01 -1.039e-01  1.255e-01    0.33992    0.74941
u2[14]     5.580e-01  8.176e-01  9.470e-01    1.08200    1.34805
u2[15]    -6.842e-01 -2.352e-01 -1.060e-02    0.20623    0.64689
u2[16]    -2.281e-01  2.010e-01  4.250e-01    0.66178    1.17700
u2[17]    -8.841e-01 -4.294e-01 -1.900e-01    0.02728    0.43361
u2[18]    -6.229e-01 -2.613e-01 -7.577e-02    0.10050    0.44651
u2[19]    -6.003e-01 -1.769e-01  4.156e-02    0.25735    0.68847
u2[2]     -7.339e-01 -2.713e-01 -5.205e-02    0.18512    0.66361
u2[20]    -6.695e-01 -1.804e-01  7.103e-02    0.31735    0.79710
u2[21]    -6.495e-01 -2.067e-01  2.355e-02    0.26955    0.76200
u2[22]    -1.179e+00 -6.655e-01 -4.209e-01   -0.17260    0.25272
u2[23]    -1.003e+00 -4.739e-01 -2.205e-01    0.03034    0.49863
u2[24]    -1.532e+00 -8.968e-01 -6.199e-01   -0.35273    0.12560
u2[25]    -1.759e-01  1.177e-01  2.767e-01    0.43983    0.74034
u2[26]    -7.600e-01 -2.296e-01  1.817e-02    0.27460    0.77222
u2[27]    -1.289e+00 -8.517e-01 -6.432e-01   -0.44910   -0.06269
u2[28]    -9.813e-01 -6.162e-01 -4.258e-01   -0.24478    0.09586
u2[29]    -8.869e-01 -4.699e-01 -2.564e-01   -0.04766    0.34234
u2[3]     -6.320e-01 -2.484e-02  3.080e-01    0.64088    1.32305
u2[30]    -9.272e-02  2.396e-01  4.032e-01    0.57670    0.88521
u2[31]    -3.787e-01  1.993e-02  2.177e-01    0.41823    0.81737
u2[32]    -1.162e+00 -6.772e-01 -4.365e-01   -0.20455    0.23313
u2[33]    -6.389e-01 -1.459e-01  1.021e-01    0.35575    0.83741
u2[34]     2.138e-01  5.956e-01  8.065e-01    1.01200    1.42012
u2[35]    -1.117e-01  2.234e-01  4.085e-01    0.58992    0.94781
u2[36]    -7.880e-01 -2.900e-01 -3.997e-02    0.19608    0.65263
u2[37]    -4.488e-01  4.878e-02  3.013e-01    0.55238    1.08300
u2[38]    -9.798e-01 -4.639e-01 -2.051e-01    0.06685    0.55764
u2[39]    -2.978e-01  1.229e-01  3.293e-01    0.54592    0.96941
u2[4]     -2.530e-01  1.542e-01  3.514e-01    0.56290    0.97140
u2[40]    -2.846e-01  7.773e-02  2.714e-01    0.45182    0.81351
u2[41]    -3.112e-01  1.072e-01  3.305e-01    0.55755    0.99661
u2[42]    -4.824e-01  2.308e-02  2.994e-01    0.56642    1.14805
u2[43]    -3.100e-02  3.232e-01  5.071e-01    0.69322    1.04700
u2[44]    -1.130e+00 -6.363e-01 -4.144e-01   -0.18340    0.23380
u2[45]    -6.830e-01 -2.870e-01 -9.254e-02    0.10547    0.48583
u2[46]     1.059e-01  3.997e-01  5.411e-01    0.68663    0.96843
u2[47]    -5.414e-01 -7.060e-02  1.712e-01    0.42190    0.92174
u2[48]    -7.264e-02  2.776e-01  4.647e-01    0.65193    1.00802
u2[49]    -1.299e+00 -6.236e-01 -2.979e-01    0.01752    0.62202
u2[5]     -5.985e-01 -2.107e-01 -2.198e-02    0.16617    0.54157
u2[50]    -4.449e-01 -1.765e-03  2.417e-01    0.46522    0.92371
u2[51]    -2.873e-01  8.851e-02  2.838e-01    0.46420    0.83520
u2[52]    -2.258e-01  8.184e-02  2.551e-01    0.42110    0.74350
u2[53]    -5.630e-01 -1.216e-01  1.148e-01    0.34650    0.79171
u2[54]    -1.130e+00 -5.516e-01 -2.471e-01    0.04161    0.62792
u2[55]     1.192e-01  4.573e-01  6.441e-01    0.82178    1.20300
u2[56]    -1.234e+00 -7.629e-01 -5.161e-01   -0.29515    0.12162
u2[57]    -3.475e-01  3.342e-02  2.316e-01    0.42540    0.82522
u2[58]    -1.341e+00 -7.233e-01 -4.286e-01   -0.14958    0.37875
u2[59]    -1.111e+00 -6.585e-01 -4.317e-01   -0.23235    0.17650
u2[6]     -7.653e-01 -4.389e-01 -2.707e-01   -0.10667    0.19040
u2[60]    -1.137e+00 -7.076e-01 -5.114e-01   -0.31088    0.05526
u2[7]     -9.575e-01 -4.374e-01 -1.954e-01    0.04811    0.52950
u2[8]     -5.446e-01 -1.704e-01  2.323e-02    0.22170    0.59972
u2[9]     -8.537e-01 -3.931e-01 -1.649e-01    0.06712    0.48722

> summary(mymodel9[, "beta[1]"])

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     -0.544271       0.089801       0.001270       0.003311 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

   2.5%     25%     50%     75%   97.5% 
-0.7231 -0.6038 -0.5434 -0.4843 -0.3669 

> sixway(mymodel9[, "beta[1]", drop = FALSE])
> 
> (mymodel10 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2497.656500
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2483.820249
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2474.510650
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2474.944168
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2472.709291
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2459.927023
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2473.465441
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2473.793835
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2487.318987
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2481.725225
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2462.972152
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2479.580139
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2482.436469
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2465.070462
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2478.730742
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2468.639432
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2484.084233
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2460.787469
Adapting finished and took 1900 iterations
Adapting took 1900 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2478.369740
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2483.171336
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2488.040187
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2472.209128
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2488.025540
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2481.520094
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2476.267648
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2469.290524
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2470.117552
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2482.141584

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.026314
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2495.206307
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2501.982138
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.428932
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.143718
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.116993
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2499.672224
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.469958
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2500.351693
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2486.434331
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.981361
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.342518
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.323596
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.611190
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.403799
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.936282
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.255478
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.927962
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.311890
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.043148
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.841683
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.103281
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.599981
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.167200
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.729573
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2477.729158
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.234981
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.675723
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2485.851434
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2463.315771
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.354692
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.817811
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.739687
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.723676
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2489.503005
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.790054
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.554738
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2472.429227
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2461.535145
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2480.440089
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.167509
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.918687
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.398446
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2499.127140
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.026533
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.933757
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2506.029940
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.572072
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.036167
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.765321
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.453086
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.279930
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.280725
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.808485
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.244950
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.350684
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2455.841172
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2495.890449
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2488.618394
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.814052
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.326492
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.182698
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.192550
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.425880
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2480.704832
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.321035
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.023619
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.395559
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2472.580722
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2475.776111
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.752455
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.072322
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2500.255563
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2494.693408
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.120993
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2459.673282
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.034317
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2475.668152
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2454.900801
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.128770
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.521969
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2486.334590
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.312487
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.752627
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2461.648431
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.714777
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.734461
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.988577
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.208575
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.019312
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.662026
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.658265
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.812437
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.115135
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.468193
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.254267
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.569235
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2477.189511
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2456.972587
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.210658
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2477.2
S.D.    =          11.236
S.E.M.  =         0.15890

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.11)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 5.03s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2477.181   2440.199   36.982     2514.163   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.53683     0.08720  -6.16   7.436e-10  ***    -0.72295    -0.37759    171 
age          0.00855     0.00524   1.63      0.1028         -0.00126     0.01891   1102 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.26389     0.08930      0.13141     0.46936   359 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> summary(mymodel10@chains[, "FP_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     -0.536829       0.087197       0.001233       0.006661 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

   2.5%     25%     50%     75%   97.5% 
-0.7229 -0.5901 -0.5356 -0.4779 -0.3776 

> sixway(mymodel10@chains[, "FP_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "beta_0")
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
> 
> # Addendum: changing contrasts back to pre-existing . . . . . . . . . . . NA
> 
> # Following re-specification of contrast settings towards the start of this
> # script, change contrasts back to pre-existing:
> options(contrasts = my_contrasts)
> 
> ############################################################################  
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   7.78    1.34  135.57