R version 4.3.2 (2023-10-31 ucrt) -- "Eye Holes"
Copyright (C) 2023 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

  Natural language support but running in an English locale

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 13  Ordered Categorical Responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> # 13.1 A level chemistry dataset . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2024 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.09/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> # User's input if necessary
> 
> ## Read alevchem data
> data(alevchem, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> alevchem$gcseav <- alevchem$gcse_tot/alevchem$gcse_no - 6
> 
> hist(alevchem$gcseav, breaks = 20)
> 
> # 13.2 Normal response models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .184
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8589.781757
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8588.935899
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8594.306275
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8590.182878
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8587.845155
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8590.911155
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8596.278272
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8590.675338
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8588.937953
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 8589.349802

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.025133
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.472251
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.393103
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8593.589788
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.038292
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.608477
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.259544
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.633424
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.929806
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.480761
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.476310
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8593.771435
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.129051
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.615559
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.840293
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.874788
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.935779
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.766617
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.202905
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.383028
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.017291
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.996829
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.191742
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.000344
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.514290
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.971547
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.106794
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.030708
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.600671
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.020178
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.989526
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.841953
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.671908
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.311580
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.376522
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.838457
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.958418
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.233082
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.911582
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.822144
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.303864
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.604131
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.439276
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.633096
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.420965
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.233596
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.217779
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8594.091876
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.039631
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.410121
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.702678
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.100157
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.304207
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.000173
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.862685
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.239228
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.134060
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.691361
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.084278
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.443872
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.315775
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.338487
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.123756
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.449289
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.304795
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.459602
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.978283
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.163037
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.418263
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.829098
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8598.672634
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.004663
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8593.982063
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.326842
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.896001
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.130134
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.640657
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.964709
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8593.222706
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.752662
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.221653
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8596.197303
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.513180
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.505582
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.713166
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.139600
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.952695
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.370287
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.913577
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.569767
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.269639
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.657932
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.167278
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.023107
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8588.532820
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8589.145751
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8587.833334
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8590.175766
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8591.189073
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 8592.377726
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          8589.8
S.D.    =          2.0359
S.E.M.  =        0.028792

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Normal) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.38s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
8589.839   8587.813   2.026      8591.864   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil)
Level 1: pupil      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
              Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   3.51860     0.03766  93.43          0  ***     3.44323     3.59127   5000 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the pupil level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   3.08902     0.09549      2.91159     3.28100   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
Warning message:
In runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1),  :
  You have specified a factor variable as a continuous response, you may wish to check its numeric values
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1,
+   resi.store = TRUE), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   1 1 1 1 1 1
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6978.850645
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6983.124139
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6974.365796
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6980.196110
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6975.418308
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6978.945371
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6973.818301
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6973.974126
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6972.775392
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6974.744805

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.847778
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.618902
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.808912
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.143067
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.399630
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.322300
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6983.534285
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.401445
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6984.632477
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.577818
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.090784
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.442051
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.829571
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.631142
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.274545
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.394158
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.636256
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.114873
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.797635
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.897137
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.437577
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.571363
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.210518
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.591689
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.040747
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.437151
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.542584
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.211286
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.311568
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6978.898024
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.047128
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.722796
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.670019
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.351648
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.026911
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.599005
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.648586
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.272396
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.330049
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.687620
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6978.816737
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.713209
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.090163
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.728842
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.280018
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.270805
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.131078
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.716353
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.328534
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.243059
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.031857
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6983.181321
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.238273
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.427509
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.842215
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.220045
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.485657
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.813252
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6982.320481
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.016105
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.931958
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.108037
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.425074
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.533163
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.846394
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6978.680164
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.560429
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.665362
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6972.945763
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6979.273450
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6982.502098
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.689444
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.868519
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6978.392116
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.228211
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.339547
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.239474
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6986.932887
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.595223
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6981.676533
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.270989
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.344557
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.092987
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6984.136720
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.262066
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.010808
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.956072
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.696715
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.072633
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.369499
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6977.030917
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.612985
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6975.371040
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.398259
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.806986
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.844774
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6973.865493
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6974.663997
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6976.406166
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6980.076731
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          6977.8
S.D.    =          3.4725
S.E.M.  =        0.049108

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Normal) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.54s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
6977.813   6971.854   5.959      6983.772   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender + (1 | 
    pupil)
Level 1: pupil      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                  Coef.   Std. Err.      z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept       3.31939     0.04044  82.09            0  ***     3.23927     3.39728   5000 
gcseav          1.56080     0.05145  30.33   4.141e-202  ***     1.45944     1.66203   4773 
I(gcseav^2)     0.19375     0.02639   7.34    2.085e-13  ***     0.14280     0.24510   5000 
I(gcseav^3)    -0.07298     0.01923  -3.79     0.000148  ***    -0.11103    -0.03499   5000 
genderfemale   -0.48058     0.05217  -9.21     3.19e-20  ***    -0.58276    -0.37895   5000 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the pupil level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   1.46733     0.04426      1.38411     1.55798   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
Warning message:
In runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender +  :
  You have specified a factor variable as a continuous response, you may wish to check its numeric values
> 
> predCurves(mymodel, xname = "gcseav", group = "genderfemale")
> 
> # 13.3 Ordered multinomial modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
> 
> ##IGLS
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1, D = "Ordered Multinomial", data = alevchem))
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  IGLS MQL1        Elapsed time : 0.35s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)        The model converged after 4 iterations.
Log likelihood:      NA 
Deviance statistic:  NA 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                 Coef.   Std. Err.        z     Pr(>|z|)         [95% Conf.   Interval] 
Intercept_F   -1.39844     0.05377   -26.01   4.274e-149   ***     -1.50383    -1.29304 
Intercept_E   -0.70147     0.04564   -15.37    2.671e-53   ***     -0.79093    -0.61201 
Intercept_D   -0.09981     0.04303    -2.32      0.02036   *       -0.18414    -0.01547 
Intercept_C    0.59498     0.04489    13.25    4.258e-40   ***      0.50699     0.68296 
Intercept_B    1.60280     0.05743    27.91   2.075e-171   ***      1.49024     1.71535 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err. 
bcons_1    1.00000     0.00000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ##MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1, D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
Residual and/or Residual SE column are empty, starting residuals will not be used
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7728.104312
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7739.547875
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7723.248887
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7726.999434
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7727.453701
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7726.933527
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7726.622990
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 7725.652301
Adapting finished and took 900 iterations
Adapting took 900 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7731.176784
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7728.926557
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7725.898613
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7726.649931
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7725.418044
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7728.462307
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7726.556337
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7731.403130
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7730.246241
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 7726.114927

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.702219
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.367905
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.454312
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.352189
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.033899
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.165429
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.678304
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.334422
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.402264
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.114108
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.768755
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.945692
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.905686
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.864059
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7721.755489
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.948212
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.047267
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.686876
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.993895
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.739353
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.642956
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.509654
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.019047
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.656296
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.086353
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.444499
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.935450
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.150240
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.465994
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.925983
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.772797
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.594550
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.059949
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.768811
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.292925
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.589705
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.274399
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.282771
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.288888
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.983088
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.404270
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.574859
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.113841
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.219696
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.838235
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.484422
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.866301
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.396230
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7721.950513
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.540986
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7730.685009
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.648974
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.943765
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.574441
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.202371
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.519645
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.053819
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.749609
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.347727
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.020679
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.946447
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.290204
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7721.948884
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.885918
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.434760
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.369876
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7732.144565
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7727.392578
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.811894
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.729564
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7730.449191
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.908146
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.316777
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.830023
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.257512
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.012928
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.130486
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.276569
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7736.575762
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.253735
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.712776
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7736.504544
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7730.398139
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.964394
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7723.003318
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7726.787643
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7729.580592
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.178363
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.592455
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.346690
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.289490
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.907339
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.515011
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.954299
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7728.436813
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7730.071290
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7725.458828
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7724.483245
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7722.060880
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 7731.147775
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          7726.4
S.D.    =          3.1760
S.E.M.  =        0.044915

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 9.09s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
7726.435   7721.414   5.021      7731.455   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                 Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F   -1.40439     0.05393  -26.04   1.744e-149  ***    -1.51012    -1.29969   201 
Intercept_E   -0.70630     0.04658  -15.16    6.109e-52  ***    -0.80085    -0.61866   199 
Intercept_D   -0.10337     0.04363   -2.37      0.01783  *      -0.18935    -0.01769   178 
Intercept_C    0.59269     0.04555   13.01    1.062e-38  ***     0.50316     0.67788   227 
Intercept_B    1.60220     0.05745   27.89   3.909e-171  ***     1.48971     1.71914   385 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 13.4 Adding predictor variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .191
> ##MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + I(gcseav^3)[1:5] + gender[1:5],
+   D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
Residual and/or Residual SE column are empty, starting residuals will not be used
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6104.800863
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6097.746829
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6098.924178
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6107.209238
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6102.844717
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 6100.052849
Adapting finished and took 700 iterations
Adapting took 700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6095.573244
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6097.971490
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6098.834974
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6100.511213
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6099.664133
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6098.675646
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6099.413315
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6097.615842
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6094.551936
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 6098.015932

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.676272
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.323932
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.310958
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6103.603933
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.818222
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6108.173261
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6099.096238
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.651707
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.344687
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.464743
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.045854
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6105.854965
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.319842
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.443786
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6113.011088
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.498190
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.463345
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.284604
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.715277
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6103.289643
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.763722
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6106.309942
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.209688
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6092.113776
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.934665
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.187934
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6103.513837
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.145594
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6105.130538
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6092.500297
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.208523
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6093.817963
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6109.366001
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.993383
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6099.717407
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.087752
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.008664
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.830481
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.392022
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.148389
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.880737
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.577219
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.051763
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.264538
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.363937
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6106.139072
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.742559
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.580142
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6105.731944
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6093.087170
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.239805
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.818098
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.917031
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.108174
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.155627
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6092.274959
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.532807
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.488008
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6099.100491
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6111.993869
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.537681
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.998322
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.350748
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.183631
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6106.237262
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6105.230643
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6097.701427
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.416460
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.472343
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.229104
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.435049
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.889335
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.360065
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.719765
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6109.388582
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6115.383309
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.518056
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.539366
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.600613
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6103.418745
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.957015
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.678990
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6095.782314
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.528096
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.399629
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6102.224190
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6107.121185
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.902872
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.266935
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.335283
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.153019
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6096.481891
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.221489
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.803456
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6100.844259
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.965430
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6098.016206
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6101.427468
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6094.383217
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 6104.393162
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          6099.9
S.D.    =          4.2083
S.E.M.  =        0.059514

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 13.53s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
6099.860   6090.964   8.896      6108.756   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    I(gcseav^3)[1:5] + gender[1:5]
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.88389     0.08182  -23.03   2.599e-117  ***    -2.04246    -1.72432   143 
Intercept_E          -0.83867     0.07196  -11.65    2.185e-31  ***    -0.98014    -0.70029   129 
Intercept_D           0.12816     0.06736    1.90       0.0571  .      -0.00296     0.26107   144 
Intercept_C           1.29669     0.07303   17.75    1.594e-70  ***     1.15546     1.43871   201 
Intercept_B           2.98704     0.10140   29.46   9.747e-191  ***     2.78826     3.18299   268 
gcseav_12345         -2.07941     0.09863  -21.08    1.129e-98  ***    -2.27632    -1.88424   177 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.45422     0.05075   -8.95    3.555e-19  ***    -0.55129    -0.35533   289 
I(gcseav^3)_12345    -0.04984     0.03915   -1.27        0.203         -0.12880     0.02670   173 
genderfemale_12345    0.75735     0.08245    9.19    4.074e-20  ***     0.59992     0.92252   263 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 13.5 Multilevel ordered response modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
> 
> # Note: Establishment codes on their own do not uniquely identify schools.
> # Schools are instead uniquely identified by LEA code, establishment ID
> # combination. Thus, here we generated a unique school ID.
> 
> alevchem$school <- as.numeric(factor(paste0(alevchem$lea, alevchem$estab)))
> 
> ##MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school),
+   D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5789.899888
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5798.591468
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5782.197552
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5803.659812
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5852.144273
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5791.659275
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5846.574118
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5817.834445
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5787.698398
Adapting finished and took 1000 iterations
Adapting took 1000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5847.106255
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5817.575825
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5839.723143
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5827.648428
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5862.546594
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5819.037013
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5826.427682
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5803.642416
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5813.180007
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5822.102395

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.689702
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.720884
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.423730
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5857.263805
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.008912
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5864.737607
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.075239
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5857.578030
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.085613
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.922313
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.111919
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.614336
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.173689
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.049614
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.183198
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.093143
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.665909
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.944063
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.276479
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.566510
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.812774
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.548007
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.415872
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.842697
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.984343
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.912804
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.489264
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.903353
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.179311
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.492211
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.637259
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.953520
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.093315
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.582846
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.851843
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.011475
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.926824
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.713320
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.287579
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.099476
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.033039
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.719926
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.709919
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.270697
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.268104
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.740863
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.847067
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.065879
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.127377
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.576368
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5831.921271
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.884577
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5845.209646
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.313031
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.386810
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.851990
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.180793
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.855672
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5844.079044
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.991640
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.105264
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.736757
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.469384
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.590276
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.796428
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.984615
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.141861
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.298636
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.745296
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.974337
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.814568
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.748841
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.181678
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.017360
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.032513
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.592127
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5862.170307
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.174816
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.906803
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.778873
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5860.584377
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.084573
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.642795
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.375436
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.706617
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.348809
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.155352
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.237008
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5831.664787
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5845.382166
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.520355
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.706739
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.311568
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.733066
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.447959
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.935271
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5850.942926
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.888938
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.398943
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.484267
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          5814.8
S.D.    =          23.134
S.E.M.  =         0.32717

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
         N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 220   1 9.845455  94        220            1      9.845455           94
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 15.11s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
5814.819   5692.565   122.253    5937.072   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school)
Level 2: school     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.93053     0.11114  -17.37    1.387e-67  ***    -2.15321    -1.72481    84 
Intercept_E          -0.77288     0.10381   -7.45    9.682e-14  ***    -0.97876    -0.57760    64 
Intercept_D           0.29717     0.10367    2.87      0.00415  **      0.09871     0.49680    59 
Intercept_C           1.55949     0.11150   13.99    1.881e-44  ***     1.34153     1.77609    78 
Intercept_B           3.36283     0.13169   25.54   7.768e-144  ***     3.09880     3.61510    90 
gcseav_12345         -2.26915     0.07218  -31.44   6.215e-217  ***    -2.41140    -2.12468   280 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.45817     0.04577  -10.01    1.375e-23  ***    -0.54707    -0.36460   383 
genderfemale_12345    0.74993     0.09208    8.14      3.8e-16  ***     0.57221     0.93418   315 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                        Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept_12345   0.64392     0.13723      0.41543     0.96019   198 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ##MCMC
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school),
+  D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6
iteration 7

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5822.293594
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5776.537381
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5801.476869
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5774.245399
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5801.368675
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5750.591253
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5788.744504
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5766.684281
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5757.018022
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5725.887116
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5773.219775
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5758.104524
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5787.600664
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5757.879266
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5829.067663
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5752.482884
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5716.830570
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5784.839189
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5780.219569
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5791.611591
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5735.900812
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5736.868181
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5747.797851
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5709.696522
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5798.547981
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5799.826243
Adapting finished and took 2700 iterations
Adapting took 2700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5773.390724
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5771.088890
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5796.486982
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5789.076442
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5805.528312
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5857.742080
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5805.237011
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5778.257043
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5867.862722
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5759.956765

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.829118
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.179882
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.081904
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.956503
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.168943
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.356204
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.666003
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.085109
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.283598
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.937059
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5724.348567
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5747.218107
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.424432
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.714475
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.202034
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.059679
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.533811
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.181921
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.211030
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.533035
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.034313
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.935892
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.800913
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.299107
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.549466
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.317238
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.742745
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.485183
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.546840
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.310524
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.943449
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.799849
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.446534
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.626209
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.881874
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.480654
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.840360
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.109542
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.805282
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.614252
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.017975
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.841159
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.419240
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.552496
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.012819
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.258907
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.336175
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5715.526480
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.941451
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.093568
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.254548
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.536506
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.985215
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.118478
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.036948
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.990393
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.252383
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.471031
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.616317
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.188248
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.920744
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.289260
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.353077
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.460931
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.201978
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.577169
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.999870
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.720032
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.834688
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.053695
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.915375
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.693827
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.446949
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.088867
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.613165
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.232799
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.617953
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.283742
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.642307
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.696769
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.217976
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.222954
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.641009
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.778925
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.431841
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.366900
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.826039
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.519937
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.870113
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.548503
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.579525
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.410623
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.174452
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.795494
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.748215
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.164845
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.528330
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.540362
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5725.112912
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.055499
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          5773.7
S.D.    =          26.749
S.E.M.  =         0.37828

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
         N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 220   1 9.845455  94        220            1      9.845455           94
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 21.09s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
5773.700   5621.361   152.339    5926.039   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school)
Level 2: school     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.93287     0.11407  -16.94    2.114e-64  ***    -2.15146    -1.71020    77 
Intercept_E          -0.75587     0.10323   -7.32    2.433e-13  ***    -0.95206    -0.54923    67 
Intercept_D           0.32514     0.10258    3.17     0.001527  **      0.14040     0.54000    53 
Intercept_C           1.59563     0.11037   14.46    2.275e-47  ***     1.39465     1.82939    71 
Intercept_B           3.41236     0.13461   25.35   9.003e-142  ***     3.14386     3.68627   103 
gcseav_12345         -2.31401     0.08110  -28.53   4.413e-179  ***    -2.47034    -2.15774   259 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.44343     0.04925   -9.00    2.178e-19  ***    -0.54058    -0.34566   367 
genderfemale_12345    0.73545     0.09517    7.73    1.093e-14  ***     0.56078     0.92168   231 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                                      Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_gcseav_12345                    0.15663     0.06783      0.05417     0.31562    48 
cov_gcseav_12345_Intercept_12345   -0.02498     0.07624     -0.17111     0.12101    84 
var_Intercept_12345                 0.62268     0.13613      0.40076     0.91745   199 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept_12345", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 300, "sigma2v6")
> 
> ##Increases iterations to 50,000
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school),
+  D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000)), data = alevchem))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6
iteration 7

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 7
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5822.293594
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5776.537381
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5801.476869
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5774.245399
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5801.368675
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5750.591253
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5788.744504
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5766.684281
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5757.018022
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5725.887116
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5773.219775
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5758.104524
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5787.600664
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5757.879266
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5829.067663
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5752.482884
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5716.830570
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5784.839189
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5780.219569
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5791.611591
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5735.900812
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5736.868181
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5747.797851
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5709.696522
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5798.547981
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 5799.826243
Adapting finished and took 2700 iterations
Adapting took 2700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5773.390724
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5771.088890
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5796.486982
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5789.076442
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5805.528312
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5857.742080
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5805.237011
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5778.257043
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5867.862722
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 5759.956765

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.829118
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.179882
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.081904
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.956503
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.168943
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.356204
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.666003
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.085109
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.283598
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.937059
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5724.348567
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5747.218107
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.424432
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.714475
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.202034
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.059679
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.533811
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.181921
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.211030
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.533035
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.034313
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.935892
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.800913
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.299107
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.549466
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.317238
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.742745
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.485183
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.546840
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.310524
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.943449
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.799849
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.446534
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.626209
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.881874
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.480654
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.840360
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.109542
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.805282
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.614252
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.017975
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.841159
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.419240
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.552496
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.012819
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.258907
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.336175
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5715.526480
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.941451
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.093568
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.254548
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.536506
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.985215
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.118478
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.036948
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.990393
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.252383
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.471031
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.616317
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.188248
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.920744
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.289260
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.353077
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.460931
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.201978
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.577169
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.999870
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.720032
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.834688
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.053695
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.915375
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.693827
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.446949
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.088867
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.613165
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.232799
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.617953
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.283742
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.642307
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.696769
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.217976
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.222954
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.641009
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.778925
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.431841
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.366900
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.826039
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.519937
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.870113
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.548503
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.579525
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.410623
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.174452
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.795494
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.748215
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.164845
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.528330
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.540362
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5725.112912
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.055499
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.514299
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.235964
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.357384
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.554519
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.403255
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.399390
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.786504
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.847014
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.371555
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.598061
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.135141
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.699985
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.954977
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.701784
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.021176
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.466109
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.827582
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.653575
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.531755
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.211886
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.873452
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.160459
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.455864
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.974869
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.801217
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.616842
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.605490
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.484857
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.443259
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.630542
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.856560
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.090891
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.804914
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.487809
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.696842
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.161326
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.064206
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.178249
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.133778
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.025865
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.926650
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.770808
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.773746
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.910451
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.187748
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.261506
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.078233
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.209707
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.881041
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.657425
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.289356
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.421815
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.070337
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.043643
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.468919
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.495008
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.480860
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.340518
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.392871
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.471663
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.942729
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.757855
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.293262
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.618231
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.673504
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.070428
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.118292
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.776852
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.880148
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.407024
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.076688
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.019381
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.972239
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.891175
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.503235
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.052743
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.352646
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.636407
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.598529
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.979177
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.201255
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.567234
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.624519
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.387995
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.958822
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.981915
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5739.312979
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.279185
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.638142
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.856517
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.400760
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.645495
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.139045
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.129277
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.084396
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.020395
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.623765
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.717580
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.661418
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.746131
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.193126
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5840.282893
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.280479
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.890053
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.645221
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.731890
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.614999
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.654566
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5726.601091
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.915312
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.931231
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.103057
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.220817
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.994369
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.169100
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.213690
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5739.374463
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.862413
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.709211
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.337352
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.465099
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.101919
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.623073
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.700719
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.343204
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.866392
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.285251
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.902028
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.166168
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.951314
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.803916
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.061923
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.426970
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.232150
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.218940
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.065468
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.291851
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5726.288608
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.325492
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.644899
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.237460
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.947031
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.045217
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.347695
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.000403
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.860029
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.419378
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.272246
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.450178
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.202766
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.140750
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.713850
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.085773
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.740674
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.569700
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.699725
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.747596
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.402793
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.469309
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.777660
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.135085
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.077431
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.166695
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.582188
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.824051
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.716231
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.351478
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.885301
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.141978
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.931252
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.397119
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.199772
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.751194
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.794811
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.178015
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.152250
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.643544
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.366807
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5731.374283
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.493701
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5731.575436
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.110038
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.240625
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.041020
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.598395
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5856.090871
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.145516
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.300304
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.426560
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.712454
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.681592
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.208352
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.894482
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.888882
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.508567
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.752347
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.237410
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.527113
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.890103
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.762407
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.281030
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.002792
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.812023
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.808617
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.578288
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.672902
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.864298
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.502968
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.548341
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.259841
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.049685
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.417362
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.448522
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.838255
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5835.961773
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.028538
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.637417
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.080787
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.094427
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.469320
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.261293
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.559922
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.777739
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.140338
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.044022
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.787404
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.508472
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.599754
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.855743
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.376899
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5847.869377
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.078822
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.541834
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.079916
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.181570
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.048445
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.076672
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.792311
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.015067
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.031755
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5732.783633
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.857720
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.266304
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.141820
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5848.440720
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.396555
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5844.804233
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.146652
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.077716
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.858241
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5747.528382
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.438098
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.358596
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.204742
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.392212
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.094802
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.842010
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.134865
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.079059
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.882443
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.285278
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.609496
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.515792
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.846070
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.507161
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.909463
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.275644
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.898894
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.824404
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.332233
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.326110
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5735.372122
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.668551
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.208633
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.696865
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.994620
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.980585
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.982526
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.181276
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.032719
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.811622
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.309655
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.819103
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.437235
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.397908
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.033401
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.707070
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.001069
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.544362
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.939465
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.403339
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.505035
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.388926
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.356613
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.231600
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.577516
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.586104
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.328228
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.826568
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.898669
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.326918
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.889166
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.089141
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.682751
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.558493
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5849.303304
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.481531
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.125464
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.303810
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.276524
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.121489
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.214299
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.125628
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.042961
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.668965
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.088943
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.050461
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.628426
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.848432
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5837.688321
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.222969
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5747.858287
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.390249
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5726.977276
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.622605
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.542152
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.667546
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.523973
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5709.872100
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.008510
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.834496
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.355607
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5858.054717
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.151446
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.160791
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.342881
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.890145
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.388178
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.744139
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.794720
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.437237
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.202334
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.684284
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.828634
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.805681
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.265414
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.959602
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.575288
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.729390
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.916619
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.254817
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.748640
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.841418
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.602610
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.826804
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.548897
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.369470
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.827341
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.865596
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.438345
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.916751
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.165906
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.030630
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.066190
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.760862
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.840427
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.858282
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.834838
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.541136
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.648628
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.305163
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.793670
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.224841
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.520905
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.974795
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.122078
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.418846
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.138463
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.384349
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.268217
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.536823
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.085261
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.011439
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.951050
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.047133
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.468650
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5734.026867
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.229594
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.133266
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.348072
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5717.382249
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.526405
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.915223
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5732.768114
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.232894
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.872390
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.560349
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.503563
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.932521
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.801558
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.561397
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.020304
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.816597
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.447007
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.536658
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.668326
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.259499
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5709.118746
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.163853
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.560794
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.616124
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.165101
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.503574
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5716.025327
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.355627
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.834468
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.888634
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.827042
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.148669
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5715.373563
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.688281
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.433189
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.581191
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.444147
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5732.987083
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.462934
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.108266
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.050324
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.631226
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.817823
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.964234
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.866906
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.703265
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.983388
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.916893
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.263130
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.823424
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.848896
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.494112
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.583012
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.561247
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.542545
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.266422
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.590251
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.238590
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.102248
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.973311
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5733.449979
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5705.078142
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.175252
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.102645
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.554969
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5711.435020
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.999543
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.001337
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.068631
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.036380
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.220826
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.340899
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5819.170635
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.795565
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.129962
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.905439
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.206691
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5816.352686
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.617092
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.619274
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.757813
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.678514
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.202186
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.942632
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.273748
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.259137
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.948377
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5728.050267
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.315766
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.644621
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.567027
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.750907
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.880957
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.711497
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.919094
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.226660
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.296617
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.971448
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.114799
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.472086
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5703.784335
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.905270
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.948509
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.234194
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.915541
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.327817
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.523679
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.875979
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.925950
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.124259
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.177575
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5762.295708
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.491122
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.648018
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.932991
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.831009
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.868460
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.102021
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.430100
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.279392
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.697079
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.085421
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.439323
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.252695
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.806498
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.736602
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.762448
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.362606
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.309372
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.363033
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.268169
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.384484
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.346614
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5813.140453
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.193668
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.455857
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.401849
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.111595
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.365261
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.833690
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.114270
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.059670
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.351901
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.755413
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.416869
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.311599
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.239738
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.555566
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.265592
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.958589
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.191615
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.490351
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.196290
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.770437
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.847557
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.272116
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5730.209553
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.955529
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.937196
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.842697
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.967272
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.541183
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.879669
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.360525
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5741.579000
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.378762
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.974181
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5836.212330
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.309045
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.650196
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.196888
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5714.844344
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.284919
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.379577
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.176571
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.686964
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.037928
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.493980
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5726.588068
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5740.490375
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.494085
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.265937
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.995989
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.525289
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.516807
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.521817
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.040167
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.169701
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5841.045766
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.281509
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.923446
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.217538
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.867635
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.976500
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.654220
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.741232
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5725.355409
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.144734
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.324591
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.391038
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.406249
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.973742
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.878149
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.981844
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5771.585135
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.222800
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.235765
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.256491
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.939225
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.131894
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.888141
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.270795
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.574524
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.098160
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.570744
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.662029
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5814.927371
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.519228
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.404187
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.722629
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5743.193686
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.187985
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5782.966004
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5811.690254
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.158257
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.239506
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.615756
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.702526
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.509970
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.061156
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.417444
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.307881
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5725.816848
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.600889
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.950144
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.100574
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.957145
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.476141
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.054237
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.593045
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.463866
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.261108
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.769744
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5821.551664
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.052964
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.433261
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.540955
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5766.598805
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.016844
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.949229
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.210295
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.250549
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.469812
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5844.746130
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.571388
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.124402
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.698042
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.856193
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.996391
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.325929
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5710.452472
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.727570
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.849347
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.811834
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.610615
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.323156
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.905188
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.061380
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.264628
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.034828
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.188984
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.476663
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.763878
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.697922
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.354612
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.493366
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.640190
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.968160
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.904065
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.630963
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.925733
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5829.734497
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.138049
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.780289
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.772764
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.223905
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.514857
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.514286
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.809934
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5701.751059
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.610053
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.491217
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.256743
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.141100
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.946550
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.541215
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.541455
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.527971
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.700754
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.546535
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.167786
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5744.171981
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.849128
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.723827
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5802.727778
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.253183
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5841.181091
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.754374
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.842264
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.992751
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.113443
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.204753
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.543306
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.407585
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.553194
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5764.854184
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.887600
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.685032
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5823.464123
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.119721
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.074389
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.079018
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.872308
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.995897
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.572777
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.219544
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.956317
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5758.996813
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.609469
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.311542
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.592903
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.248753
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.443012
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.344216
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.059743
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.779273
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5773.933365
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.650269
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5735.192203
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.554647
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.122616
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.384175
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.666193
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.812715
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5748.542606
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.878450
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.136348
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.826844
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.005448
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5856.226462
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.651139
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.436153
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.147724
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5721.029210
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.892821
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.928627
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5720.126669
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.636649
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5751.372259
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.017448
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.514080
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.101340
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.902277
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5822.452429
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.001581
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.284053
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.833903
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.851454
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.824868
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.008562
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.427287
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.201534
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.923735
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.795981
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.666328
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.772367
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.160965
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.246991
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.615001
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.833370
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.116036
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5792.894491
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5789.766285
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.410225
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.395653
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.130128
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.161009
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.667965
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.957334
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5742.597288
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.682297
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.026351
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.038735
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.434210
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.535004
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5788.507122
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.289783
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.913183
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.805240
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5790.464591
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.138290
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5847.467695
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5810.116882
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.187497
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.176790
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.400493
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.104506
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.913026
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.506679
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5760.231936
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.575276
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5804.141719
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5736.172684
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.518598
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5798.936000
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5791.508703
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5855.688992
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.584040
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5843.601234
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5838.143967
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.522462
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.089168
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.388814
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5820.934000
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.012395
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5809.684786
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5839.101161
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.333673
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.210110
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5800.346859
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.354129
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5765.517195
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.602182
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.019436
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5796.479055
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.489298
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5826.183192
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5834.553689
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5806.797319
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.167535
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5776.947268
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5774.506078
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5807.535852
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5781.264881
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.077402
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5746.089213
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.203207
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.408521
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5749.735982
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5817.330047
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5784.356383
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.737476
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5759.416245
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.008536
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5763.139077
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5755.372053
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5828.955525
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5779.902469
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5805.898888
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5832.918846
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5752.073240
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5830.111536
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5783.718490
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.344529
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.253502
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5801.363922
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.226610
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5827.861714
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5793.214044
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5815.370997
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.907552
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.787142
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.991021
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5778.085785
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.310338
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5767.392137
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5812.612815
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5732.392846
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5772.554750
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5833.050893
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5824.777035
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.758762
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5803.552610
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5785.271535
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5745.629063
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5737.870571
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.681360
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5780.072663
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5750.189599
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5738.353080
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5757.422578
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5700.625037
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5769.241370
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5717.827366
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.573313
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5768.707458
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5775.087569
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5753.151537
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5787.552414
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5818.406730
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5799.631304
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5797.306071
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5777.183207
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.066225
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5825.923162
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5794.430401
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5795.779865
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5770.080857
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5808.641392
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5754.166919
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5756.771768
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5761.282470
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 5786.057839
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          5781.2
S.D.    =          28.427
S.E.M.  =         0.12713

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Multinomial) 
         N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
school 220   1 9.845455  94        220            1      9.845455           94
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 133.64s 
Number of obs:  2166 (from total 2166)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
5781.179   5633.462   147.717    5928.896   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + 
    gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school)
Level 2: school     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                        Coef.   Std. Err.       z     Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept_F          -1.93774     0.10903  -17.77    1.151e-70  ***    -2.15332    -1.72604    931 
Intercept_E          -0.76166     0.09908   -7.69      1.5e-14  ***    -0.95608    -0.56633    734 
Intercept_D           0.31437     0.09768    3.22     0.001289  **      0.12721     0.50754    641 
Intercept_C           1.58196     0.10580   14.95    1.513e-50  ***     1.37956     1.79359    716 
Intercept_B           3.39349     0.13188   25.73   5.137e-146  ***     3.14237     3.66279    960 
gcseav_12345         -2.30912     0.08072  -28.61   5.322e-180  ***    -2.47085    -2.15451   2392 
I(gcseav^2)_12345    -0.44404     0.05060   -8.78      1.7e-18  ***    -0.54043    -0.34433   2709 
genderfemale_12345    0.73837     0.09471    7.80    6.367e-15  ***     0.55286     0.92447   2026 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the school level: 
                                      Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_gcseav_12345                    0.13082     0.07348      0.02334     0.30422    268 
cov_gcseav_12345_Intercept_12345   -0.03103     0.06877     -0.16806     0.10612    811 
var_Intercept_12345                 0.61307     0.13375      0.38416     0.90682   1826 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
             Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
bcons_1    1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept_12345", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 300, "sigma2v6")
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ############################################################################
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   9.23    1.29  205.50