R version 4.3.2 (2023-10-31 ucrt) -- "Eye Holes"
Copyright (C) 2023 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

  Natural language support but running in an English locale

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 10  Modelling Binary Responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2024 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.09/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> # Change contrasts if wish to avoid warning indicating that, by default,
> # specified contrasts for ordered predictors will be ignored by runMLwiN
> # (they will be fitted as "contr.treatment" regardless of this setting). To
> # enable specified contrasts, set allowcontrast to TRUE (this will be the
> # default in future package releases). NB at the end of this script, the
> # specification for contrasts is changed back.
> my_contrasts <- options("contrasts")$contrasts
> options(contrasts = c(unordered = "contr.treatment",
+                       ordered = "contr.treatment"))
> 
> # As an alternative to changing contrasts, can instead use C() to specify
> # contrasts for ordered predictors in formula object, e.g.:
> 
> # (mymodel3 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + C(lc, "contr.treatment"),
> #                       D = "Binomial",
> #                       estoptions = list(EstM = 1),
> #                       data = bang1,
> #                       allowcontrast = TRUE))
> 
> # User's input if necessary
> 
> ## Read bang1 data
> data(bang1, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> # 10.1 Simple logistic regression model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130
> 
> (mymodel1 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2589.951603
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2590.870573
Adapting finished and took 300 iterations
Adapting took 300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.646899
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.408544
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.703242
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.578707
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.143776
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.497722
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.866468
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.366495
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2601.081625
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2590.826384

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.768209
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.974846
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.681292
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.029755
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.956166
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.700843
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.249050
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.764631
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.215259
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.583255
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.738290
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2599.665863
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.851598
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.064439
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.602086
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.016924
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.673363
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.401756
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.806336
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.859640
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.674262
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.332550
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.929091
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.027123
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.651481
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.305020
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.219008
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.793939
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.448211
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.191911
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.086373
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.539469
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.927492
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.508995
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.905070
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.755927
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.259256
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.056615
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.229959
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.161462
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.898548
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.782298
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.749425
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.438829
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.692805
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.387252
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.241413
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.300298
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.469366
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.291484
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.115828
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.134031
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.254941
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.757296
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491965
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.248874
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.171248
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.329180
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.887602
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.460348
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.804734
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.476827
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.524551
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.356007
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.321576
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.285680
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197588
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.992028
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.900265
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613041
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.566051
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.248283
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.675361
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.528497
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.472607
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815054
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.423243
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.429422
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500183
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.090979
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.064172
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.588351
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.532194
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2600.825764
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.877217
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.619297
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.853876
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.211902
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.607546
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.407865
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.268036
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.484512
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.891584
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.687159
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.627120
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.106576
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.048963
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.781838
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.584549
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.501194
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2591.3
S.D.    =          1.9941
S.E.M.  =        0.028200

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 2.59s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2591.294   2589.293   2.001      2593.294   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.43858     0.04731  -9.27   1.863e-20  ***    -0.53074    -0.34677   1100 
age          0.00681     0.00509   1.34      0.1803         -0.00333     0.01649   1145 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> summary(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     6.814e-03      5.086e-03      7.193e-05      1.503e-04 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

     2.5%       25%       50%       75%     97.5% 
-0.003334  0.003406  0.006793  0.010430  0.016486 

> sixway(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age", drop = FALSE], "beta_1")
> 
> ## 15,000 iterations
> (mymodel2 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 15000)), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2589.951603
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2590.870573
Adapting finished and took 300 iterations
Adapting took 300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.646899
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.408544
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.703242
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.578707
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.143776
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.497722
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.866468
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.366495
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2601.081625
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2590.826384

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 15000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 15000, Stored update 50 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.768209
Actual update 100 of 15000, Stored update 100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.974846
Actual update 150 of 15000, Stored update 150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.681292
Actual update 200 of 15000, Stored update 200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.029755
Actual update 250 of 15000, Stored update 250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.956166
Actual update 300 of 15000, Stored update 300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.700843
Actual update 350 of 15000, Stored update 350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.249050
Actual update 400 of 15000, Stored update 400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.764631
Actual update 450 of 15000, Stored update 450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.215259
Actual update 500 of 15000, Stored update 500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.583255
Actual update 550 of 15000, Stored update 550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.738290
Actual update 600 of 15000, Stored update 600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2599.665863
Actual update 650 of 15000, Stored update 650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.851598
Actual update 700 of 15000, Stored update 700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.064439
Actual update 750 of 15000, Stored update 750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.602086
Actual update 800 of 15000, Stored update 800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.016924
Actual update 850 of 15000, Stored update 850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.673363
Actual update 900 of 15000, Stored update 900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.401756
Actual update 950 of 15000, Stored update 950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.806336
Actual update 1000 of 15000, Stored update 1000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.859640
Actual update 1050 of 15000, Stored update 1050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.674262
Actual update 1100 of 15000, Stored update 1100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.332550
Actual update 1150 of 15000, Stored update 1150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.929091
Actual update 1200 of 15000, Stored update 1200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.027123
Actual update 1250 of 15000, Stored update 1250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.651481
Actual update 1300 of 15000, Stored update 1300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.305020
Actual update 1350 of 15000, Stored update 1350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.219008
Actual update 1400 of 15000, Stored update 1400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.793939
Actual update 1450 of 15000, Stored update 1450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.448211
Actual update 1500 of 15000, Stored update 1500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.191911
Actual update 1550 of 15000, Stored update 1550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.086373
Actual update 1600 of 15000, Stored update 1600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.539469
Actual update 1650 of 15000, Stored update 1650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.927492
Actual update 1700 of 15000, Stored update 1700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.508995
Actual update 1750 of 15000, Stored update 1750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.905070
Actual update 1800 of 15000, Stored update 1800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.755927
Actual update 1850 of 15000, Stored update 1850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.259256
Actual update 1900 of 15000, Stored update 1900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.056615
Actual update 1950 of 15000, Stored update 1950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.229959
Actual update 2000 of 15000, Stored update 2000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.161462
Actual update 2050 of 15000, Stored update 2050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.898548
Actual update 2100 of 15000, Stored update 2100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.782298
Actual update 2150 of 15000, Stored update 2150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.749425
Actual update 2200 of 15000, Stored update 2200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.438829
Actual update 2250 of 15000, Stored update 2250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.692805
Actual update 2300 of 15000, Stored update 2300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.387252
Actual update 2350 of 15000, Stored update 2350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.241413
Actual update 2400 of 15000, Stored update 2400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.300298
Actual update 2450 of 15000, Stored update 2450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.469366
Actual update 2500 of 15000, Stored update 2500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.291484
Actual update 2550 of 15000, Stored update 2550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.115828
Actual update 2600 of 15000, Stored update 2600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.134031
Actual update 2650 of 15000, Stored update 2650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.254941
Actual update 2700 of 15000, Stored update 2700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.757296
Actual update 2750 of 15000, Stored update 2750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491965
Actual update 2800 of 15000, Stored update 2800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.248874
Actual update 2850 of 15000, Stored update 2850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.171248
Actual update 2900 of 15000, Stored update 2900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.329180
Actual update 2950 of 15000, Stored update 2950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.887602
Actual update 3000 of 15000, Stored update 3000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.460348
Actual update 3050 of 15000, Stored update 3050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.804734
Actual update 3100 of 15000, Stored update 3100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.476827
Actual update 3150 of 15000, Stored update 3150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.524551
Actual update 3200 of 15000, Stored update 3200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.356007
Actual update 3250 of 15000, Stored update 3250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.321576
Actual update 3300 of 15000, Stored update 3300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.285680
Actual update 3350 of 15000, Stored update 3350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197588
Actual update 3400 of 15000, Stored update 3400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.992028
Actual update 3450 of 15000, Stored update 3450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.900265
Actual update 3500 of 15000, Stored update 3500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613041
Actual update 3550 of 15000, Stored update 3550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.566051
Actual update 3600 of 15000, Stored update 3600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.248283
Actual update 3650 of 15000, Stored update 3650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.675361
Actual update 3700 of 15000, Stored update 3700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.528497
Actual update 3750 of 15000, Stored update 3750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.472607
Actual update 3800 of 15000, Stored update 3800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815054
Actual update 3850 of 15000, Stored update 3850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.423243
Actual update 3900 of 15000, Stored update 3900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.429422
Actual update 3950 of 15000, Stored update 3950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500183
Actual update 4000 of 15000, Stored update 4000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.090979
Actual update 4050 of 15000, Stored update 4050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.064172
Actual update 4100 of 15000, Stored update 4100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.588351
Actual update 4150 of 15000, Stored update 4150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.532194
Actual update 4200 of 15000, Stored update 4200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2600.825764
Actual update 4250 of 15000, Stored update 4250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.877217
Actual update 4300 of 15000, Stored update 4300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.619297
Actual update 4350 of 15000, Stored update 4350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.853876
Actual update 4400 of 15000, Stored update 4400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.211902
Actual update 4450 of 15000, Stored update 4450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.607546
Actual update 4500 of 15000, Stored update 4500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.407865
Actual update 4550 of 15000, Stored update 4550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.268036
Actual update 4600 of 15000, Stored update 4600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.484512
Actual update 4650 of 15000, Stored update 4650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.891584
Actual update 4700 of 15000, Stored update 4700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.687159
Actual update 4750 of 15000, Stored update 4750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.627120
Actual update 4800 of 15000, Stored update 4800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.106576
Actual update 4850 of 15000, Stored update 4850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.048963
Actual update 4900 of 15000, Stored update 4900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.781838
Actual update 4950 of 15000, Stored update 4950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.584549
Actual update 5000 of 15000, Stored update 5000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.501194
Actual update 5050 of 15000, Stored update 5050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.326785
Actual update 5100 of 15000, Stored update 5100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.897769
Actual update 5150 of 15000, Stored update 5150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.727437
Actual update 5200 of 15000, Stored update 5200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.311384
Actual update 5250 of 15000, Stored update 5250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.833062
Actual update 5300 of 15000, Stored update 5300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.147899
Actual update 5350 of 15000, Stored update 5350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.559319
Actual update 5400 of 15000, Stored update 5400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.140640
Actual update 5450 of 15000, Stored update 5450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.315305
Actual update 5500 of 15000, Stored update 5500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500863
Actual update 5550 of 15000, Stored update 5550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.371565
Actual update 5600 of 15000, Stored update 5600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.953330
Actual update 5650 of 15000, Stored update 5650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.371833
Actual update 5700 of 15000, Stored update 5700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.840891
Actual update 5750 of 15000, Stored update 5750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.173621
Actual update 5800 of 15000, Stored update 5800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.778510
Actual update 5850 of 15000, Stored update 5850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.685790
Actual update 5900 of 15000, Stored update 5900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.110700
Actual update 5950 of 15000, Stored update 5950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.658122
Actual update 6000 of 15000, Stored update 6000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.781574
Actual update 6050 of 15000, Stored update 6050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.308886
Actual update 6100 of 15000, Stored update 6100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.040881
Actual update 6150 of 15000, Stored update 6150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.451545
Actual update 6200 of 15000, Stored update 6200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.759446
Actual update 6250 of 15000, Stored update 6250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.234311
Actual update 6300 of 15000, Stored update 6300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.918111
Actual update 6350 of 15000, Stored update 6350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.403790
Actual update 6400 of 15000, Stored update 6400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.888412
Actual update 6450 of 15000, Stored update 6450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.630759
Actual update 6500 of 15000, Stored update 6500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.121933
Actual update 6550 of 15000, Stored update 6550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.775539
Actual update 6600 of 15000, Stored update 6600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.366354
Actual update 6650 of 15000, Stored update 6650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.896814
Actual update 6700 of 15000, Stored update 6700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.432262
Actual update 6750 of 15000, Stored update 6750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.144790
Actual update 6800 of 15000, Stored update 6800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.888364
Actual update 6850 of 15000, Stored update 6850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.653521
Actual update 6900 of 15000, Stored update 6900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.598193
Actual update 6950 of 15000, Stored update 6950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.533812
Actual update 7000 of 15000, Stored update 7000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.117119
Actual update 7050 of 15000, Stored update 7050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.710367
Actual update 7100 of 15000, Stored update 7100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.445705
Actual update 7150 of 15000, Stored update 7150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.902012
Actual update 7200 of 15000, Stored update 7200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.494178
Actual update 7250 of 15000, Stored update 7250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.129225
Actual update 7300 of 15000, Stored update 7300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.684554
Actual update 7350 of 15000, Stored update 7350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.503688
Actual update 7400 of 15000, Stored update 7400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.659162
Actual update 7450 of 15000, Stored update 7450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.280975
Actual update 7500 of 15000, Stored update 7500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.077884
Actual update 7550 of 15000, Stored update 7550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.611580
Actual update 7600 of 15000, Stored update 7600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.480002
Actual update 7650 of 15000, Stored update 7650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.226368
Actual update 7700 of 15000, Stored update 7700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.463220
Actual update 7750 of 15000, Stored update 7750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.377009
Actual update 7800 of 15000, Stored update 7800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.387892
Actual update 7850 of 15000, Stored update 7850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.653876
Actual update 7900 of 15000, Stored update 7900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.291884
Actual update 7950 of 15000, Stored update 7950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.746536
Actual update 8000 of 15000, Stored update 8000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.979617
Actual update 8050 of 15000, Stored update 8050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303303
Actual update 8100 of 15000, Stored update 8100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.554749
Actual update 8150 of 15000, Stored update 8150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.628758
Actual update 8200 of 15000, Stored update 8200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.773838
Actual update 8250 of 15000, Stored update 8250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303772
Actual update 8300 of 15000, Stored update 8300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.394990
Actual update 8350 of 15000, Stored update 8350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.821110
Actual update 8400 of 15000, Stored update 8400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.453836
Actual update 8450 of 15000, Stored update 8450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.332968
Actual update 8500 of 15000, Stored update 8500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.486810
Actual update 8550 of 15000, Stored update 8550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.436534
Actual update 8600 of 15000, Stored update 8600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.348255
Actual update 8650 of 15000, Stored update 8650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.373805
Actual update 8700 of 15000, Stored update 8700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.105508
Actual update 8750 of 15000, Stored update 8750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491970
Actual update 8800 of 15000, Stored update 8800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.586307
Actual update 8850 of 15000, Stored update 8850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.485480
Actual update 8900 of 15000, Stored update 8900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.251231
Actual update 8950 of 15000, Stored update 8950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.029715
Actual update 9000 of 15000, Stored update 9000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.617251
Actual update 9050 of 15000, Stored update 9050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.808902
Actual update 9100 of 15000, Stored update 9100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.481561
Actual update 9150 of 15000, Stored update 9150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.114245
Actual update 9200 of 15000, Stored update 9200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.462257
Actual update 9250 of 15000, Stored update 9250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.989261
Actual update 9300 of 15000, Stored update 9300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.869022
Actual update 9350 of 15000, Stored update 9350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.313826
Actual update 9400 of 15000, Stored update 9400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.057443
Actual update 9450 of 15000, Stored update 9450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.381670
Actual update 9500 of 15000, Stored update 9500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.974644
Actual update 9550 of 15000, Stored update 9550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.204999
Actual update 9600 of 15000, Stored update 9600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.944681
Actual update 9650 of 15000, Stored update 9650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.782511
Actual update 9700 of 15000, Stored update 9700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.435815
Actual update 9750 of 15000, Stored update 9750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.559156
Actual update 9800 of 15000, Stored update 9800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.499589
Actual update 9850 of 15000, Stored update 9850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.445607
Actual update 9900 of 15000, Stored update 9900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.932187
Actual update 9950 of 15000, Stored update 9950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.356364
Actual update 10000 of 15000, Stored update 10000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.103185
Actual update 10050 of 15000, Stored update 10050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.698784
Actual update 10100 of 15000, Stored update 10100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.407493
Actual update 10150 of 15000, Stored update 10150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.073081
Actual update 10200 of 15000, Stored update 10200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.501938
Actual update 10250 of 15000, Stored update 10250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.166202
Actual update 10300 of 15000, Stored update 10300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.526353
Actual update 10350 of 15000, Stored update 10350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.828928
Actual update 10400 of 15000, Stored update 10400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.321502
Actual update 10450 of 15000, Stored update 10450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.509723
Actual update 10500 of 15000, Stored update 10500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.475855
Actual update 10550 of 15000, Stored update 10550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.427423
Actual update 10600 of 15000, Stored update 10600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.048312
Actual update 10650 of 15000, Stored update 10650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.504689
Actual update 10700 of 15000, Stored update 10700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.343214
Actual update 10750 of 15000, Stored update 10750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.736323
Actual update 10800 of 15000, Stored update 10800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.644299
Actual update 10850 of 15000, Stored update 10850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.167835
Actual update 10900 of 15000, Stored update 10900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.091200
Actual update 10950 of 15000, Stored update 10950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.089911
Actual update 11000 of 15000, Stored update 11000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.850856
Actual update 11050 of 15000, Stored update 11050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.095667
Actual update 11100 of 15000, Stored update 11100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.399195
Actual update 11150 of 15000, Stored update 11150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.933732
Actual update 11200 of 15000, Stored update 11200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613510
Actual update 11250 of 15000, Stored update 11250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.333869
Actual update 11300 of 15000, Stored update 11300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.055213
Actual update 11350 of 15000, Stored update 11350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.012338
Actual update 11400 of 15000, Stored update 11400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.824617
Actual update 11450 of 15000, Stored update 11450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.577698
Actual update 11500 of 15000, Stored update 11500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.792105
Actual update 11550 of 15000, Stored update 11550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.720343
Actual update 11600 of 15000, Stored update 11600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.559781
Actual update 11650 of 15000, Stored update 11650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303467
Actual update 11700 of 15000, Stored update 11700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.641581
Actual update 11750 of 15000, Stored update 11750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.095896
Actual update 11800 of 15000, Stored update 11800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.635515
Actual update 11850 of 15000, Stored update 11850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.850313
Actual update 11900 of 15000, Stored update 11900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2598.108508
Actual update 11950 of 15000, Stored update 11950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.598688
Actual update 12000 of 15000, Stored update 12000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.069221
Actual update 12050 of 15000, Stored update 12050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.594538
Actual update 12100 of 15000, Stored update 12100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.082492
Actual update 12150 of 15000, Stored update 12150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.284010
Actual update 12200 of 15000, Stored update 12200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.571265
Actual update 12250 of 15000, Stored update 12250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197795
Actual update 12300 of 15000, Stored update 12300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.892149
Actual update 12350 of 15000, Stored update 12350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.950196
Actual update 12400 of 15000, Stored update 12400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.446674
Actual update 12450 of 15000, Stored update 12450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.668784
Actual update 12500 of 15000, Stored update 12500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.134181
Actual update 12550 of 15000, Stored update 12550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.827360
Actual update 12600 of 15000, Stored update 12600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2597.436190
Actual update 12650 of 15000, Stored update 12650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.581883
Actual update 12700 of 15000, Stored update 12700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.761127
Actual update 12750 of 15000, Stored update 12750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.511492
Actual update 12800 of 15000, Stored update 12800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.970981
Actual update 12850 of 15000, Stored update 12850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.205208
Actual update 12900 of 15000, Stored update 12900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815426
Actual update 12950 of 15000, Stored update 12950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.527739
Actual update 13000 of 15000, Stored update 13000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.375354
Actual update 13050 of 15000, Stored update 13050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.161721
Actual update 13100 of 15000, Stored update 13100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.165646
Actual update 13150 of 15000, Stored update 13150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.615933
Actual update 13200 of 15000, Stored update 13200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.661689
Actual update 13250 of 15000, Stored update 13250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.934058
Actual update 13300 of 15000, Stored update 13300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.331196
Actual update 13350 of 15000, Stored update 13350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.348267
Actual update 13400 of 15000, Stored update 13400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.710108
Actual update 13450 of 15000, Stored update 13450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.526088
Actual update 13500 of 15000, Stored update 13500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.427714
Actual update 13550 of 15000, Stored update 13550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.175138
Actual update 13600 of 15000, Stored update 13600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.952247
Actual update 13650 of 15000, Stored update 13650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.174863
Actual update 13700 of 15000, Stored update 13700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.311362
Actual update 13750 of 15000, Stored update 13750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.774428
Actual update 13800 of 15000, Stored update 13800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.721112
Actual update 13850 of 15000, Stored update 13850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.389233
Actual update 13900 of 15000, Stored update 13900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.749576
Actual update 13950 of 15000, Stored update 13950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.321777
Actual update 14000 of 15000, Stored update 14000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.834873
Actual update 14050 of 15000, Stored update 14050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.539435
Actual update 14100 of 15000, Stored update 14100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.407257
Actual update 14150 of 15000, Stored update 14150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.058782
Actual update 14200 of 15000, Stored update 14200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.064583
Actual update 14250 of 15000, Stored update 14250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.425419
Actual update 14300 of 15000, Stored update 14300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.399230
Actual update 14350 of 15000, Stored update 14350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.494608
Actual update 14400 of 15000, Stored update 14400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.053985
Actual update 14450 of 15000, Stored update 14450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.194388
Actual update 14500 of 15000, Stored update 14500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.062828
Actual update 14550 of 15000, Stored update 14550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.740512
Actual update 14600 of 15000, Stored update 14600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.109076
Actual update 14650 of 15000, Stored update 14650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.027349
Actual update 14700 of 15000, Stored update 14700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.953809
Actual update 14750 of 15000, Stored update 14750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.698469
Actual update 14800 of 15000, Stored update 14800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.715286
Actual update 14850 of 15000, Stored update 14850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.430721
Actual update 14900 of 15000, Stored update 14900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.878858
Actual update 14950 of 15000, Stored update 14950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.092206
Actual update 15000 of 15000, Stored update 15000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.782512
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          15000
Average =          2591.3
S.D.    =          2.0089
S.E.M.  =        0.016403

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 6.92s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 15000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2591.304   2589.291   2.013      2593.317   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.43823     0.04679  -9.37   7.521e-21  ***    -0.53056    -0.34731   3424 
age          0.00652     0.00518   1.26       0.208         -0.00361     0.01655   3369 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   15000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> sixway(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age", drop = FALSE], "beta_1")
> 
> ## Change to 5000 iterations by default
> (mymodel3 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2522.069466
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2522.416460
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2516.684417
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2516.993245
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2520.230429
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2528.418285
Adapting finished and took 700 iterations
Adapting took 700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2521.350620
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2518.991520
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2524.139464
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2525.128730
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.385636
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.604872
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2530.633208
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.194512
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2524.627148
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2517.921333

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.401170
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.361644
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.392425
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.902030
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.220252
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.581058
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.294267
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.778515
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.632855
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.018024
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.540300
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.453744
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.561308
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.890592
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.995611
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.161853
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.224471
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.684330
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.299710
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.386532
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.072426
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.876939
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.512926
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.180191
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.409675
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.904756
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.041903
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.126984
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.863607
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.189684
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.049213
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.557101
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.570475
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.959927
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.054060
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.245956
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.709562
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.032966
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.113473
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.094458
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.180995
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.713002
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.333332
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.129678
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.624761
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.451814
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.453340
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.114356
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.968311
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.267346
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.446068
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.022467
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2515.718454
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2515.277034
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.268438
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.721614
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.080543
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.349438
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.359523
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.820491
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.502575
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.059309
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.714517
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.094055
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.872935
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2526.970300
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.461122
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.238450
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.300191
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.006096
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.087775
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.974317
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.610732
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.409179
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.271533
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.897440
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.702722
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.171242
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.330213
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.137911
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.257549
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.333539
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.940271
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2531.771361
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.079348
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.620876
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.270454
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.067912
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.960184
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.194420
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.615242
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.373627
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.623101
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.160253
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.183178
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.667417
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.814486
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.635186
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.990584
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.208024
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2520.0
S.D.    =          3.0513
S.E.M.  =        0.043152

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.84s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2519.985   2515.101   4.884      2524.869   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.25731     0.11725  -10.72   7.938e-27  ***    -1.50365    -1.04494    88 
age              -0.02167     0.00730   -2.97     0.00299  **     -0.03688    -0.00758   204 
lcOne_child       1.02331     0.15568    6.57    4.92e-11  ***     0.73013     1.34527   200 
lcTwo_children    1.17855     0.16265    7.25   4.295e-13  ***     0.86548     1.49371   181 
lcThree_plus      1.10458     0.17117    6.45   1.095e-10  ***     0.78861     1.45592    98 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 10.2 Random effects logistic regression model . . . . . . . . . . . . .136
> 
> (mymodel4 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2425.393650
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2382.487828
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2385.557160
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2389.249434
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2396.753912
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2385.561122
Adapting finished and took 700 iterations
Adapting took 700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2402.539335
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2413.603520
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2393.031520
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2411.577557
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2416.661355
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2377.030943
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2380.359391
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2388.282301
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2406.932703
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2388.040523

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.795242
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.259815
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.353754
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.547656
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.307375
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.261502
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.333095
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2409.432187
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.920531
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.578419
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.197819
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.415609
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2379.272397
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.595826
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2389.566807
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2413.418452
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.730325
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.781112
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.850386
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2385.810316
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.141197
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.187915
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.372359
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.316577
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.864286
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.926430
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.402731
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.308915
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.716238
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.258494
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.749927
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2413.148994
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.183476
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2415.614471
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2416.888603
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.985020
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.185077
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.576564
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.691488
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.193762
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.184006
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.416844
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2387.247023
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.218179
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.747352
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2433.881448
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.719907
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2392.773726
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.511973
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2414.345850
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.803190
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2401.863667
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.683013
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2423.940940
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.428829
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.617785
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.795467
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2405.824001
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.762395
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2415.448866
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.589817
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.868309
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.208274
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2400.947262
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.401979
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.971499
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2419.483230
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.387849
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.199828
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2417.038566
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.494838
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2416.222045
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.476729
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2407.427802
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2420.462965
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.413847
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.401094
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.069542
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.149426
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.126517
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.747377
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.599606
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.440217
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2420.537137
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.850680
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.376380
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.193846
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.137560
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.189229
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.031171
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.518564
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.615160
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.210370
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2396.921396
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2401.349428
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.099835
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.618286
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.476338
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2392.363952
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.052484
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2396.3
S.D.    =          11.747
S.E.M.  =         0.16613

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 6.2s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2396.324   2355.120   41.204     2437.528   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.48934     0.13771  -10.82   2.919e-27  ***    -1.76712    -1.22862    94 
age              -0.02604     0.00773   -3.37   0.0007579  ***    -0.04114    -0.01136   287 
lcOne_child       1.11009     0.15247    7.28   3.317e-13  ***     0.81361     1.41775   273 
lcTwo_children    1.32959     0.16892    7.87   3.511e-15  ***     1.00613     1.66664   164 
lcThree_plus      1.30533     0.16875    7.74    1.03e-14  ***     0.98436     1.62393   127 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.30225     0.09800      0.15032     0.53346   456 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> summary(mymodel4@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
      0.302251       0.097995       0.001386       0.004590 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

  2.5%    25%    50%    75%  97.5% 
0.1503 0.2308 0.2894 0.3595 0.5335 

> sixway(mymodel4@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 10.3 Random coefficients for area type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
> 
> (mymodel5 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2386.517555
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2376.620871
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2369.470856
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2400.188422
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2350.717855
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2373.762793
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2365.344941
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2352.533671
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2361.405893
Adapting finished and took 1000 iterations
Adapting took 1000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2392.853760
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2364.089600
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2376.275962
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2365.643922
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2356.830961
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2380.059050
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2358.768999
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2353.215231
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2358.729162
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2387.164408

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.431924
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.978350
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.301696
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.612057
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.428561
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.089361
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.310478
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.223416
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.566438
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.833624
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.169501
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.545288
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.029554
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2387.839503
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2370.982699
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.265064
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.624596
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.798537
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.709044
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.286237
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.628302
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.855090
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.465195
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.660372
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.002448
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.934092
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.496132
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.991644
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.959361
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.596966
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2376.541497
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.269910
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.442307
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.792451
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.240275
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.176119
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.208133
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2386.598907
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.871195
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.403600
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.742756
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.111363
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.739785
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.576045
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.942845
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.216161
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.895892
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.055887
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2379.718731
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.235876
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.191827
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.939505
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.033868
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.630003
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.396449
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2358.510964
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.534042
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.881210
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2376.992658
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2352.477978
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.659548
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.061106
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.432812
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.381817
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.438988
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.952813
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.881511
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.937277
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.233771
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.140686
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.676178
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.729099
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.329068
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.645231
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.814727
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.560319
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.071946
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.246268
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.751327
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.820726
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.163382
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.565113
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.958908
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.918883
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.587190
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.850844
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.356064
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.264688
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.798108
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2389.327311
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.068108
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.127170
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.082439
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.119824
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.691330
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.469377
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.244368
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.198974
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.164884
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.654662
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2370.4
S.D.    =          11.588
S.E.M.  =         0.16388

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 7.17s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2370.448   2331.268   39.180     2409.628   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.72263     0.15643  -11.01   3.326e-28  ***    -2.04037    -1.43455    79 
age              -0.02734     0.00850   -3.22    0.001294  **     -0.04505    -0.01129   187 
lcOne_child       1.12891     0.16471    6.85   7.182e-12  ***     0.80402     1.44924   164 
lcTwo_children    1.38675     0.18073    7.67   1.679e-14  ***     1.05808     1.75907   111 
lcThree_plus      1.37409     0.19991    6.87   6.259e-12  ***     1.00891     1.78948    97 
urbanUrban        0.73922     0.11678    6.33   2.448e-10  ***     0.50709     0.96645   511 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.23443     0.08516      0.09853     0.43194   293 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> (mymodel6 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2376.297480
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2329.737140
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2315.618096
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2348.619470
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2309.544641
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2310.365457
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2349.205756
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2327.681001
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2331.231358
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2319.247877
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2330.925172
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2316.529762
Adapting finished and took 1300 iterations
Adapting took 1300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2342.485507
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2327.535661
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2333.598976
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2325.301751
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2314.067030
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2324.739343
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2344.820810
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2320.161725
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2337.356611
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2346.133715

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.082268
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.160441
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.911534
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.933004
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.917615
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.237189
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.174201
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.515325
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.910751
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.951677
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.506904
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.070219
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.479693
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.194511
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.286172
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.275618
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.339297
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.417819
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.377833
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.958845
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.243933
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.611220
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2350.046794
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2348.565443
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.256604
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.558487
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.553881
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2293.486241
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2351.314339
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.260367
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.591472
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.154549
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.797452
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.531172
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.754172
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.517615
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.005877
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.391833
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.586354
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.860786
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.496474
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.038729
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.870695
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.509747
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.116528
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.056209
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.315319
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.870506
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.096127
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.721197
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.865600
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.746665
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.178325
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.940171
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.376615
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.421760
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.622785
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.305688
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.337285
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.357558
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.191902
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.537656
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.345624
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.136993
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2356.000632
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.824932
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.171189
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.380876
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.816654
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.694920
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.284380
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.939826
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.652421
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.666763
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.453875
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.658334
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.663361
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.113397
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.438082
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.003320
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.665984
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.926547
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2299.588300
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.058572
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.439428
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.983847
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.164519
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.002882
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.549191
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.409418
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.337239
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.796345
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.771897
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.739075
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.813443
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.365957
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.580218
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.609452
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.934251
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.227544
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2328.8
S.D.    =          14.409
S.E.M.  =         0.20377

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 8.59s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2328.815   2271.289   57.526     2386.341   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.72473     0.16083  -10.72   7.836e-27  ***    -2.05706    -1.43692    70 
age              -0.02700     0.00778   -3.47   0.0005233  ***    -0.04244    -0.01167   262 
lcOne_child       1.14050     0.16106    7.08   1.429e-12  ***     0.84436     1.46480   238 
lcTwo_children    1.37161     0.17138    8.00   1.213e-15  ***     1.03770     1.69819   181 
lcThree_plus      1.36622     0.17681    7.73   1.099e-14  ***     1.02367     1.72014   101 
urbanUrban        0.83065     0.19203    4.33   1.521e-05  ***     0.45912     1.21550   101 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.43398     0.14962      0.20802     0.78321   145 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.45879     0.19583     -0.90707    -0.15957    97 
var_urbanUrban              0.77209     0.35890      0.27457     1.65919    90 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 10.4 Probit regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
> 
> # 10.5 Running a probit regression in MLwiN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142
> 
> ## Gibbs
> (mymodel7 <- runMLwiN(probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(fixM = 1, residM = 1)), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 2 1 1 2
BURNING IN...
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2349.663465
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2347.835474
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2321.132178
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2299.777329
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2318.472523
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2323.091020
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2337.602076
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2323.823258
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2335.270790
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2314.997421

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.273252
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.289882
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2358.412264
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.671637
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.047241
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.576780
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.631556
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2300.238175
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.846796
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.436549
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.885065
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.706582
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.212459
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.104005
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.789336
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.719783
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.383630
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.358245
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.619651
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.400477
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.821243
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.355743
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.898192
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.377310
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.774344
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.899102
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.496401
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.888339
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.813642
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.555971
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.783412
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.205086
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.338184
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.814901
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.343272
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.911187
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2352.436250
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.162266
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.941046
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.320248
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.410188
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.227860
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.127130
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.779340
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.255759
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.264580
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.399543
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.998963
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.047957
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.470403
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.832100
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.841531
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.286635
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.976646
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2352.157597
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.740289
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.961693
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.002327
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2345.040024
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.085203
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.433436
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.602731
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.165146
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.889373
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.851868
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.473435
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.079896
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.953273
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.694214
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.691360
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2301.994329
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.646503
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.016334
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2297.745229
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.112418
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.752064
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.250909
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.240111
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.405078
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2293.704502
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.251539
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.686250
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.737088
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.297317
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.047944
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.682814
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.970829
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.589770
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.366061
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.701962
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.721353
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.921590
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.478707
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.640307
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.384396
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.927812
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.666093
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.889416
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.438419
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.486582
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2327.6
S.D.    =          13.853
S.E.M.  =         0.19591

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.66s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2327.589   2271.076   56.513     2384.103   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept        -1.04158     0.09781  -10.65   1.759e-26  ***    -1.23233    -0.85163    741 
age              -0.01626     0.00482   -3.37   0.0007446  ***    -0.02599    -0.00677   1804 
lcOne_child       0.68774     0.09698    7.09   1.328e-12  ***     0.49476     0.87457   1761 
lcTwo_children    0.82377     0.10632    7.75   9.313e-15  ***     0.61720     1.03375   1774 
lcThree_plus      0.82647     0.10850    7.62   2.587e-14  ***     0.61523     1.04174   1681 
urbanUrban        0.49563     0.10567    4.69   2.729e-06  ***     0.28846     0.69749    668 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.15806     0.05045      0.07922     0.27201   798 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.16416     0.06736     -0.31634    -0.05526   579 
var_urbanUrban              0.27265     0.11658      0.10196     0.55624   455 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## Univariate MH by default
> (mymodel8 <- runMLwiN(probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2320.266522
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2340.797308
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2318.897400
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2335.428604
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2326.197606
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2307.969587
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2306.595854
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2325.598680
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2330.712795
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2335.465633
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2328.382917
Adapting finished and took 1200 iterations
Adapting took 1200 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2337.052673
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2329.761604
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2329.110588
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2333.371604
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2338.910540
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2304.426211
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2313.005094
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2308.526574
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2318.679874
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2366.195028

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.111886
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.796119
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.159524
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.310947
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.577483
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.010574
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.922571
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.994845
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.213841
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2356.704386
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.531232
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.497993
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.864070
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.040265
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2306.247513
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.739462
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.037817
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2306.659433
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.391369
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.243228
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.192704
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.956642
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2365.784325
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.859806
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.107073
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.501217
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.486198
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.770400
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.950832
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2301.523009
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.548334
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.116955
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.781919
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.270198
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.648247
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.021380
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.247850
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.601829
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.639737
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.488511
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.526582
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.498561
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.877962
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.898186
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.329851
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.470115
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.510698
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.701882
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.889450
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2300.774774
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.999176
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.569754
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.048430
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2356.123745
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.867350
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.560725
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.877136
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.660331
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.442649
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.707587
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.132912
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.371875
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.179330
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.549415
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.463988
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.280514
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.893698
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.302900
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.246012
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.084941
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.890180
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.751378
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.801455
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.695354
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.793822
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.590725
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.993896
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.862768
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.290370
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.380995
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.830675
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.743210
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.417008
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.980508
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.209621
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.064949
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.861487
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.210240
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.575653
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.624912
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.211146
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.403238
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.818875
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.546399
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.615320
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.607262
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.361591
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.814282
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.787428
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.558544
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2327.3
S.D.    =          13.416
S.E.M.  =         0.18973

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 11.64s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2327.265   2270.548   56.717     2383.982   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.05583     0.09281  -11.38   5.512e-30  ***    -1.25313    -0.88473    73 
age              -0.01617     0.00500   -3.23    0.001218  **     -0.02629    -0.00681   179 
lcOne_child       0.69179     0.09702    7.13   1.001e-12  ***     0.49787     0.87248   181 
lcTwo_children    0.82898     0.10636    7.79   6.494e-15  ***     0.59965     1.03002   161 
lcThree_plus      0.82683     0.11372    7.27    3.57e-13  ***     0.59611     1.06281    96 
urbanUrban        0.51459     0.10735    4.79   1.639e-06  ***     0.30578     0.72010   120 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.15965     0.05253      0.08113     0.28185   193 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.16999     0.06933     -0.33817    -0.06681   114 
var_urbanUrban              0.28646     0.11810      0.12082     0.57696   127 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> if (!require(texreg)) {
+   warning("texreg package required to use screenreg() function")
+ } else {
+   screenreg(list(mymodel7, mymodel8), custom.model.names=c("Gibbs", "Metropolis"), groups = list("Fixed Part" = 1:6, "Level-2" = 7:9, "Level-1" = 10:10),
+    stars = numeric(0), include.nobs=FALSE, include.loglik=FALSE, include.deviance=FALSE, include.dbar=FALSE, include.dthetabar=FALSE, include.pd=FALSE, include.dic=FALSE)
+ }
Loading required package: texreg
Version:  1.39.3
Date:     2023-11-09
Author:   Philip Leifeld (University of Essex)

Consider submitting praise using the praise or praise_interactive functions.
Please cite the JSS article in your publications -- see citation("texreg").

================================================================
                                  Gibbs           Metropolis    
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed Part                                                      
                                                                
    FP_Intercept                   -1.04 *         -1.06 *      
                                  [-1.23; -0.85]  [-1.25; -0.88]
    FP_age                         -0.02 *         -0.02 *      
                                  [-0.03; -0.01]  [-0.03; -0.01]
    FP_lcOne_child                  0.69 *          0.69 *      
                                  [ 0.49;  0.87]  [ 0.50;  0.87]
    FP_lcTwo_children               0.82 *          0.83 *      
                                  [ 0.62;  1.03]  [ 0.60;  1.03]
    FP_lcThree_plus                 0.83 *          0.83 *      
                                  [ 0.62;  1.04]  [ 0.60;  1.06]
    FP_urbanUrban                   0.50 *          0.51 *      
                                  [ 0.29;  0.70]  [ 0.31;  0.72]
Level-2                                                         
                                                                
    RP2_var_Intercept               0.16 *          0.16 *      
                                  [ 0.08;  0.27]  [ 0.08;  0.28]
    RP2_cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.16 *         -0.17 *      
                                  [-0.32; -0.06]  [-0.34; -0.07]
    RP2_var_urbanUrban              0.27 *          0.29 *      
                                  [ 0.10;  0.56]  [ 0.12;  0.58]
Level-1                                                         
                                                                
    RP1_var_bcons_1                 1.00 *          1.00 *      
                                  [ 1.00;  1.00]  [ 1.00;  1.00]
================================================================
* Null hypothesis value outside the confidence interval.
> 
> if (!require(coda)) {
+   warning("package coda required to run this example")
+ } else {
+   cat("The effective sample sizes\n")
+   ESS.aa <- effectiveSize(mymodel7@chains[, 2:11])
+   ESS.bb <- effectiveSize(mymodel8@chains[, 2:11])
+   ctable <- cbind(round(ESS.aa), round(ESS.bb))
+   colnames(ctable) <- c("ESS(Gibbs)", "ESS(Metropolis)")
+   print(ctable)
+ }
Loading required package: coda
The effective sample sizes
                             ESS(Gibbs) ESS(Metropolis)
FP_Intercept                        741              73
FP_age                             1804             179
FP_lcOne_child                     1761             181
FP_lcTwo_children                  1774             161
FP_lcThree_plus                    1681              96
FP_urbanUrban                       668             120
RP2_var_Intercept                   798             193
RP2_cov_Intercept_urbanUrban        579             114
RP2_var_urbanUrban                  455             127
RP1_var_bcons_1                    5000            5000
> 
> # 10.6 Comparison with WinBUGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
> 
> mymodel9 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), BUGO = c(version = 4, 
+   n.chains = 1, debug = FALSE, seed = 1, OpenBugs = TRUE), data = bang1)
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed

Loading required namespace: BRugs
Welcome to BRugs connected to OpenBUGS version 3.2.3
model is syntactically correct
data loaded
model compiled
Initializing chain 1: 
model is initialized
model is already initialized
Sampling has been started ...
500 updates took 4 s
deviance set
monitor set for variable 'beta'
monitor set for variable 'u2'
monitor set for variable 'sigma2.u2'
monitor set for variable 'deviance'
5000 updates took 48 s
> 
> summary(mymodel9)

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

                Mean        SD  Naive SE Time-series SE
beta[1]   -5.443e-01  0.089801 1.270e-03      3.311e-03
beta[2]    8.515e-03  0.005298 7.493e-05      7.701e-05
deviance   2.476e+03 10.962516 1.550e-01      2.416e-01
sigma2.u2  2.741e-01  0.089239 1.262e-03      2.966e-03
u2[1]     -4.502e-01  0.208780 2.953e-03      3.813e-03
u2[10]    -6.102e-01  0.416527 5.891e-03      7.231e-03
u2[11]    -9.979e-01  0.425494 6.017e-03      8.606e-03
u2[12]    -9.555e-02  0.317483 4.490e-03      5.151e-03
u2[13]     1.191e-01  0.329371 4.658e-03      5.057e-03
u2[14]     9.490e-01  0.201612 2.851e-03      4.825e-03
u2[15]    -1.443e-02  0.340740 4.819e-03      4.961e-03
u2[16]     4.369e-01  0.355190 5.023e-03      5.902e-03
u2[17]    -2.014e-01  0.341084 4.824e-03      4.986e-03
u2[18]    -8.039e-02  0.272126 3.848e-03      5.039e-03
u2[19]     3.967e-02  0.328498 4.646e-03      4.865e-03
u2[2]     -4.280e-02  0.352357 4.983e-03      5.171e-03
u2[20]     6.837e-02  0.373748 5.286e-03      6.009e-03
u2[21]     3.452e-02  0.356626 5.043e-03      5.468e-03
u2[22]    -4.297e-01  0.366196 5.179e-03      6.197e-03
u2[23]    -2.263e-01  0.379459 5.366e-03      5.366e-03
u2[24]    -6.367e-01  0.417796 5.909e-03      7.251e-03
u2[25]     2.779e-01  0.238186 3.368e-03      4.444e-03
u2[26]     1.830e-02  0.385773 5.456e-03      5.456e-03
u2[27]    -6.525e-01  0.305962 4.327e-03      5.561e-03
u2[28]    -4.303e-01  0.275778 3.900e-03      4.286e-03
u2[29]    -2.609e-01  0.315412 4.461e-03      4.966e-03
u2[3]      3.167e-01  0.502777 7.110e-03      7.861e-03
u2[30]     4.048e-01  0.246550 3.487e-03      4.593e-03
u2[31]     2.192e-01  0.303900 4.298e-03      5.133e-03
u2[32]    -4.439e-01  0.352595 4.986e-03      5.801e-03
u2[33]     1.048e-01  0.376303 5.322e-03      5.322e-03
u2[34]     8.070e-01  0.306512 4.335e-03      6.235e-03
u2[35]     4.101e-01  0.269202 3.807e-03      4.819e-03
u2[36]    -4.722e-02  0.366965 5.190e-03      5.433e-03
u2[37]     3.033e-01  0.386145 5.461e-03      6.098e-03
u2[38]    -2.020e-01  0.393923 5.571e-03      5.685e-03
u2[39]     3.341e-01  0.319761 4.522e-03      4.827e-03
u2[4]      3.570e-01  0.310134 4.386e-03      5.310e-03
u2[40]     2.685e-01  0.280285 3.964e-03      4.885e-03
u2[41]     3.346e-01  0.333333 4.714e-03      5.436e-03
u2[42]     3.018e-01  0.408959 5.784e-03      6.037e-03
u2[43]     5.082e-01  0.273937 3.874e-03      5.457e-03
u2[44]    -4.183e-01  0.346493 4.900e-03      5.347e-03
u2[45]    -9.349e-02  0.293792 4.155e-03      4.671e-03
u2[46]     5.418e-01  0.214930 3.040e-03      4.546e-03
u2[47]     1.776e-01  0.367427 5.196e-03      5.771e-03
u2[48]     4.642e-01  0.278017 3.932e-03      4.981e-03
u2[49]    -3.128e-01  0.485171 6.861e-03      7.425e-03
u2[5]     -2.235e-02  0.288865 4.085e-03      4.506e-03
u2[50]     2.365e-01  0.349387 4.941e-03      5.736e-03
u2[51]     2.770e-01  0.286289 4.049e-03      4.818e-03
u2[52]     2.532e-01  0.246447 3.485e-03      4.613e-03
u2[53]     1.121e-01  0.351896 4.977e-03      4.977e-03
u2[54]    -2.553e-01  0.445362 6.298e-03      6.992e-03
u2[55]     6.448e-01  0.273768 3.872e-03      5.579e-03
u2[56]    -5.319e-01  0.343876 4.863e-03      5.399e-03
u2[57]     2.314e-01  0.299322 4.233e-03      4.791e-03
u2[58]    -4.423e-01  0.429483 6.074e-03      6.793e-03
u2[59]    -4.468e-01  0.327390 4.630e-03      5.547e-03
u2[6]     -2.754e-01  0.247264 3.497e-03      4.288e-03
u2[60]    -5.150e-01  0.302312 4.275e-03      4.985e-03
u2[7]     -2.024e-01  0.370591 5.241e-03      5.834e-03
u2[8]      2.606e-02  0.292622 4.138e-03      4.727e-03
u2[9]     -1.680e-01  0.340983 4.822e-03      5.502e-03

2. Quantiles for each variable:

                2.5%        25%        50%        75%      97.5%
beta[1]   -7.231e-01 -6.038e-01 -5.434e-01   -0.48431   -0.36688
beta[2]   -1.841e-03  4.841e-03  8.528e-03    0.01213    0.01889
deviance   2.457e+03  2.469e+03  2.476e+03 2483.27960 2499.22413
sigma2.u2  1.369e-01  2.095e-01  2.615e-01    0.32643    0.47471
u2[1]     -8.712e-01 -5.869e-01 -4.450e-01   -0.30512   -0.04547
u2[10]    -1.500e+00 -8.711e-01 -5.971e-01   -0.32544    0.15487
u2[11]    -1.903e+00 -1.261e+00 -9.792e-01   -0.70341   -0.21077
u2[12]    -7.155e-01 -3.051e-01 -9.574e-02    0.11981    0.51891
u2[13]    -5.385e-01 -1.039e-01  1.255e-01    0.33995    0.74937
u2[14]     5.581e-01  8.176e-01  9.470e-01    1.08174    1.34851
u2[15]    -6.842e-01 -2.352e-01 -1.060e-02    0.20626    0.64692
u2[16]    -2.280e-01  2.011e-01  4.250e-01    0.66178    1.17699
u2[17]    -8.841e-01 -4.294e-01 -1.901e-01    0.02728    0.43359
u2[18]    -6.229e-01 -2.613e-01 -7.577e-02    0.10053    0.44651
u2[19]    -6.003e-01 -1.769e-01  4.155e-02    0.25738    0.68842
u2[2]     -7.339e-01 -2.713e-01 -5.206e-02    0.18509    0.66364
u2[20]    -6.695e-01 -1.804e-01  7.103e-02    0.31739    0.79705
u2[21]    -6.495e-01 -2.067e-01  2.355e-02    0.26952    0.76202
u2[22]    -1.179e+00 -6.656e-01 -4.210e-01   -0.17258    0.25275
u2[23]    -1.003e+00 -4.739e-01 -2.204e-01    0.03034    0.49866
u2[24]    -1.532e+00 -8.968e-01 -6.199e-01   -0.35269    0.12560
u2[25]    -1.759e-01  1.177e-01  2.766e-01    0.43980    0.74033
u2[26]    -7.599e-01 -2.296e-01  1.816e-02    0.27460    0.77219
u2[27]    -1.289e+00 -8.517e-01 -6.433e-01   -0.44914   -0.06269
u2[28]    -9.814e-01 -6.163e-01 -4.257e-01   -0.24474    0.09587
u2[29]    -8.869e-01 -4.699e-01 -2.565e-01   -0.04766    0.34236
u2[3]     -6.320e-01 -2.483e-02  3.080e-01    0.64090    1.32274
u2[30]    -9.272e-02  2.396e-01  4.033e-01    0.57669    0.88516
u2[31]    -3.787e-01  1.992e-02  2.176e-01    0.41821    0.81732
u2[32]    -1.162e+00 -6.772e-01 -4.365e-01   -0.20455    0.23310
u2[33]    -6.389e-01 -1.459e-01  1.020e-01    0.35578    0.83736
u2[34]     2.138e-01  5.955e-01  8.066e-01    1.01187    1.42054
u2[35]    -1.117e-01  2.234e-01  4.085e-01    0.58989    0.94783
u2[36]    -7.880e-01 -2.900e-01 -3.997e-02    0.19610    0.65265
u2[37]    -4.488e-01  4.877e-02  3.013e-01    0.55237    1.08270
u2[38]    -9.799e-01 -4.639e-01 -2.051e-01    0.06686    0.55767
u2[39]    -2.978e-01  1.229e-01  3.293e-01    0.54589    0.96938
u2[4]     -2.530e-01  1.542e-01  3.514e-01    0.56293    0.97140
u2[40]    -2.847e-01  7.773e-02  2.714e-01    0.45181    0.81352
u2[41]    -3.112e-01  1.072e-01  3.305e-01    0.55752    0.99663
u2[42]    -4.824e-01  2.308e-02  2.994e-01    0.56644    1.14843
u2[43]    -3.100e-02  3.232e-01  5.071e-01    0.69323    1.04709
u2[44]    -1.130e+00 -6.363e-01 -4.144e-01   -0.18339    0.23377
u2[45]    -6.830e-01 -2.870e-01 -9.254e-02    0.10548    0.48583
u2[46]     1.060e-01  3.997e-01  5.411e-01    0.68662    0.96846
u2[47]    -5.414e-01 -7.059e-02  1.712e-01    0.42193    0.92171
u2[48]    -7.265e-02  2.776e-01  4.646e-01    0.65196    1.00842
u2[49]    -1.299e+00 -6.236e-01 -2.979e-01    0.01752    0.62199
u2[5]     -5.985e-01 -2.107e-01 -2.199e-02    0.16618    0.54160
u2[50]    -4.449e-01 -1.765e-03  2.417e-01    0.46520    0.92366
u2[51]    -2.874e-01  8.851e-02  2.837e-01    0.46421    0.83517
u2[52]    -2.258e-01  8.184e-02  2.551e-01    0.42106    0.74345
u2[53]    -5.630e-01 -1.216e-01  1.148e-01    0.34648    0.79172
u2[54]    -1.130e+00 -5.516e-01 -2.471e-01    0.04161    0.62789
u2[55]     1.192e-01  4.573e-01  6.441e-01    0.82178    1.20277
u2[56]    -1.234e+00 -7.628e-01 -5.161e-01   -0.29512    0.12164
u2[57]    -3.475e-01  3.342e-02  2.315e-01    0.42541    0.82523
u2[58]    -1.341e+00 -7.233e-01 -4.286e-01   -0.14956    0.37873
u2[59]    -1.111e+00 -6.585e-01 -4.317e-01   -0.23232    0.17653
u2[6]     -7.653e-01 -4.389e-01 -2.706e-01   -0.10664    0.19042
u2[60]    -1.137e+00 -7.077e-01 -5.114e-01   -0.31085    0.05526
u2[7]     -9.575e-01 -4.374e-01 -1.954e-01    0.04811    0.52952
u2[8]     -5.446e-01 -1.704e-01  2.323e-02    0.22168    0.59973
u2[9]     -8.537e-01 -3.931e-01 -1.649e-01    0.06712    0.48726

> summary(mymodel9[, "beta[1]"])

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     -0.544271       0.089801       0.001270       0.003311 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

   2.5%     25%     50%     75%   97.5% 
-0.7231 -0.6038 -0.5434 -0.4843 -0.3669 

> sixway(mymodel9[, "beta[1]", drop = FALSE])
> 
> (mymodel10 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2497.656500
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2483.820249
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2474.510650
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2474.944168
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2472.709291
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2459.927023
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2473.465441
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2473.793835
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2487.318987
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2481.725225
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2462.972152
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2479.580139
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2482.436469
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2465.070462
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2478.730742
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2468.639432
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2484.084233
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2460.787469
Adapting finished and took 1900 iterations
Adapting took 1900 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2478.369740
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2483.171336
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2488.040187
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2472.209128
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2488.025540
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2481.520094
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2476.267648
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2469.290524
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2470.117552
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2482.141584

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.026314
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2495.206307
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2501.982138
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.428932
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.143718
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.116993
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2499.672224
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.469958
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2500.351693
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2486.434331
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.981361
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.342518
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.323596
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.611190
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.403799
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.936282
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.255478
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.927962
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.311890
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.043148
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.841683
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.103281
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.599981
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.167200
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.729573
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2477.729158
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.234981
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.675723
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2485.851434
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2463.315771
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.354692
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.817811
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.739687
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.723676
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2489.503005
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.790054
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.554738
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2472.429227
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2461.535145
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2480.440089
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.167509
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.918687
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.398446
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2499.127140
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.026533
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.933757
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2506.029940
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.572072
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.036167
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.765321
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.453086
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.279930
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.280725
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.808485
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.244950
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.350684
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2455.841172
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2495.890449
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2488.618394
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.814052
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.326492
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.182698
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.192550
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.425880
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2480.704832
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.321035
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.023619
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.395559
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2472.580722
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2475.776111
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.752455
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.072322
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2500.255563
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2494.693408
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.120993
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2459.673282
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.034317
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2475.668152
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2454.900801
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.128770
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.521969
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2486.334590
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.312487
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.752627
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2461.648431
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.714777
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.734461
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.988577
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.208575
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.019312
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.662026
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.658265
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.812437
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.115135
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.468193
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.254267
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.569235
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2477.189511
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2456.972587
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.210658
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2477.2
S.D.    =          11.236
S.E.M.  =         0.15890

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.09)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.82s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2477.181   2440.199   36.982     2514.163   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.53683     0.08720  -6.16   7.436e-10  ***    -0.72295    -0.37759    171 
age          0.00855     0.00524   1.63      0.1028         -0.00126     0.01891   1102 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.26389     0.08930      0.13141     0.46936   359 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> summary(mymodel10@chains[, "FP_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     -0.536829       0.087197       0.001233       0.006661 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

   2.5%     25%     50%     75%   97.5% 
-0.7229 -0.5901 -0.5356 -0.4779 -0.3776 

> sixway(mymodel10@chains[, "FP_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "beta_0")
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
> 
> # Addendum: changing contrasts back to pre-existing . . . . . . . . . . . NA
> 
> # Following re-specification of contrast settings towards the start of this
> # script, change contrasts back to pre-existing:
> options(contrasts = my_contrasts)
> 
> ############################################################################  
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   9.65    4.51  278.50