Evaluating uncertainty in modelled climatic change at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition

6 June 2018, 1.00 PM - 6 June 2018, 2.00 PM

Seminar Room 1, Geographical Sciences

A BRIDGE talk by Alan Kennedy

Please note this event is only open to University of Bristol staff and students.

Abstract

Around 34 million years ago, the Earth system changed dramatically across the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) on a variety of spatial and temporal scales, most notably with significant ice sheet growth over Antarctica. With examples for the EOT, the uncertainty due to two potentially common practices in palaeoclimate modelling is investigated: namely inadequate sampling of palaeogeographic variability and insufficient model spin-up. By using an ensemble of simulations from the GCM, HadCM3BL, a margin of uncertainty can be added to the climatic responses to various forcings typical of changes at the EOT, such Antarctic ice growth and declining atmospheric CO2. Accounting for this uncertainty can help bridge the discrepancies between reconstructed and modelled climate at the EOT. These findings are not specific to the EOT and are relevant for deep-time palaeoclimate research more broadly.

Contact information

peter.uhe@bristol.ac.uk

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