This Water Group seminar will be given by Dave MacLeod from University of Oxford.

Abstract

Atmospheric forecasts up to one month (subseasonal) and beyond (seasonal) are made routinely at operational meteorological centres globally. However their potential for improved decision-making across various sectors has yet to be fully exploited, and it is not clear the extent to which they will eventually find use. Here I will give a brief overview of the current status of forecast use for decision making, focusing on application to water resource management and considering barriers to the uptake of climate information. I will then highlight potential areas of forecast skill and describe routes to improve forecast skill for hydrological variables by better representing land surface uncertainty. I will also describe some awkward features of forecasts which may ultimately limit their use. Finally I will conclude with challenges for the future and some ideas for potential research directions.

This event is only open to University of Bristol staff and students.