SOLD OUT! Black Box Workshop: Multidisciplinary approaches to uncertainty

11 July 2013, 9.00 AM - 11 July 2013, 9.00 AM

Peel Lecture Theatre, School of Geographical Sciences, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS

Researchers from diverse disciplines will share their approaches in several areas of uncertainty assessment, in particular: statistical modelling of complex data and simulators, data assimilation (combining data with simulations), structural uncertainty in complex simulators, pragmatism, and the role of expert judgement. 

Although many of the talks relate to Cabot Institute and environmental research, we particularly value attendance by researchers in other areas for their perspective.  We will ask speakers to explain their work in abstract "black box" terms, suitable for a general audience, so researchers from different disciplines can understand each other and exchange expertise.

Refreshments, including lunch, will be provided.

A restaurant for dinner on 11 July will be booked although this is not funded. 

Places are now fully booked.  Please email Tamsin Edwards ( if you would like to be put on the waiting list.

Note: This is a two day event on 11 and 12 July.


Thursday 11 July

9:00  Registration

9:15  Tamsin Edwards (Geog Sci) - Introduction

Understanding complex data

9:30  Melanie Auker (Earth Sci) – spatio-temporal analysis of volcano mortality data

10:00  Nicole Augustin (Uni. of Bath) – spatio-temporal modelling of fish

10:30  Coffee

11:00  Jeff Neal (Geog Sci) – spatial modelling of flood risk

11:30  Bill Browne (Vet Sci) – multilevel modelling in veterinary science

12:00  Lunch

Understanding complex simulators

13:30  Maxime Souvignet (Geog Sci) – structural and input uncertainties in hydrological modelling

14:00  Ian Vernon (Uni. of Durham) – emulation of a galaxy formation model

14:30  Doug McNeall (UK Met Office) – emulation of an ice sheet model 

15:00 Unconference session

17:30  Pub


Friday 12 July

Combining simulations and data

09:30  Shona Mackie (Earth Sci) – data assimilation for detecting clouds and volcanic ash 

10:00  Andrew Zammit Mangion (Geog Sci/Maths) – data assimilation for estimating recent Antarctic ice-mass trends

10:30  Coffee

Pragmatism and deep uncertainty

11:00  Neil Edwards (Open University) – avoiding climate model structural uncertainty

11:30  Jonty Rougier (Maths) – data assimilation for estimating climate multi-model uncertainty

12:00  Lunch

13:30  Willy Aspinall (Earth Sci) – expert elicitation

14:00  Jonathan Bamber (Geog Sci) – expert elicitation for ice sheets

14:30  Richard Pettigrew and Jason Konek (Philosophy) – expert judgement and objective priors

15:00 Unconference session

17:30  Close

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