SOLD OUT! Black Box Workshop: Multidisciplinary approaches to uncertainty
Researchers from diverse disciplines will share their approaches in several areas of uncertainty assessment, in particular: statistical modelling of complex data and simulators, data assimilation (combining data with simulations), structural uncertainty in complex simulators, pragmatism, and the role of expert judgement.
Although many of the talks relate to Cabot Institute and environmental research, we particularly value attendance by researchers in other areas for their perspective. We will ask speakers to explain their work in abstract "black box" terms, suitable for a general audience, so researchers from different disciplines can understand each other and exchange expertise.
Refreshments, including lunch, will be provided.
A restaurant for dinner on 11 July will be booked although this is not funded.
Places are now fully booked. Please email Tamsin Edwards (tamsin.edwards@bristol.ac.uk) if you would like to be put on the waiting list.
Note: This is a two day event on 11 and 12 July.
Programme
Thursday 11 July
9:00 Registration
9:15 Tamsin Edwards (Geog Sci) - Introduction
Understanding complex data
10:00 Nicole Augustin (Uni. of Bath) – spatio-temporal modelling of fish
10:30 Coffee
11:00 Jeff Neal (Geog Sci) – spatial modelling of flood risk
11:30 Bill Browne (Vet Sci) – multilevel modelling in veterinary science
12:00 Lunch
Understanding complex simulators
14:00 Ian Vernon (Uni. of Durham) – emulation of a galaxy formation model
14:30 Doug McNeall (UK Met Office) – emulation of an ice sheet model
15:00 Unconference session
17:30 Pub
Dinner
Friday 12 July
Combining simulations and data
09:30 Shona Mackie (Earth Sci) – data assimilation for detecting clouds and volcanic ash
10:00 Andrew Zammit Mangion (Geog Sci/Maths) – data assimilation for estimating recent Antarctic ice-mass trends
10:30 Coffee
Pragmatism and deep uncertainty
11:00 Neil Edwards (Open University) – avoiding climate model structural uncertainty
11:30 Jonty Rougier (Maths) – data assimilation for estimating climate multi-model uncertainty
12:00 Lunch
13:30 Willy Aspinall (Earth Sci) – expert elicitation
14:00 Jonathan Bamber (Geog Sci) – expert elicitation for ice sheets
14:30 Richard Pettigrew and Jason Konek (Philosophy) – expert judgement and objective priors
15:00 Unconference session