"Grand challenges in modelling weather and climate-related risks", Professor David Stephenson

31 July 2011, 4.00 PM - 31 July 2011, 4.00 PM

Presentation now available for download

Professor David Stephenson, director of the Exeter Climate Systems research centre at the University of Exeter gave a seminar on modelling weather and climate-related risks. His presentation is now available for download here (4.8MB pdf)


Some grand as-yet-unresolved challenges in modelling hydrometeorological hazards include:

  • How best to represent non-stationary rates that vary on all time scales;
  • How to account for clustering of events which lead to large aggregate losses;
  • How to model the dependency between the number and intensity of hazards which has a large impact on aggregate losses (collective risk);
  • How to deal with imperfect data sources: short observational records, inhomogeneities, climate model errors, etc.

This talk will attempt to cover some of these issues relevant to storm and flood risk by illustrating the issues on extra-tropical storms. Recent scientific work on clustering and dependency will be reviewed that have important implications for how the insurance industry calculates financial losses due to such events.  


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