Professor David Stephenson, director of the Exeter Climate Systems research centre at the University of Exeter will be giving a seminar on modelling weather and climate-related risks.

4pm, 13th April

Seminar Room 1, Geographical Sciences

Abstract

Some grand as-yet-unresolved challenges in modelling hydrometeorological hazards include:

• How best to represent non-stationary rates that vary on all time scales;
• How to account for clustering of events which lead to large aggregate losses;
• How to model the dependency between the number and intensity of hazards which has a large impact on aggregate losses (collective risk);
• How to deal with imperfect data sources: short observational records, inhomogeneities, climate model errors, etc.

This talk will attempt to cover some of these issues relevant to storm and flood risk by illustrating the issues on extra-tropical storms. Recent scientific work on clustering and dependency will be reviewed that have important implications for how the insurance industry calculates financial losses due to such events.  

All are welcome.