R version 3.6.3 (2020-02-29) -- "Holding the Windsock" Copyright (C) 2020 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit) R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. Natural language support but running in an English locale R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > ############################################################################ > # MLwiN MCMC Manual > # > # 13 Ordered Categorical Responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181 > # > # Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for > # Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol. > ############################################################################ > # R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN > # > # Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J. > # Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012 > # http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/ > ############################################################################ > > # 13.1 A level chemistry dataset . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 > > library(R2MLwiN) R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1) To cite R2MLwiN in publications use: Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton, George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43. doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10 A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is @Article{, title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}}, author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne}, journal = {Journal of Statistical Software}, year = {2016}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {1--43}, doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10}, } The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/ To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="") > # MLwiN folder > mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path") > while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) { + cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n") + mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n") + mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE) + } > options(MLwiN_path = mlwin) > > # User's input if necessary > > ## Read alevchem data > data(alevchem, package = "R2MLwiN") > > alevchem$gcseav <- alevchem$gcse_tot/alevchem$gcse_no - 6 > > hist(alevchem$gcseav, breaks = 20) > > # 13.2 Normal response models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .184 > > (mymodel <- runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8589.781789 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8588.935931 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8594.306307 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8590.182910 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8587.845187 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8590.911187 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8596.278304 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8590.675370 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8588.937985 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 8589.349834 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.025165 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.472283 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.393135 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8593.589820 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.038324 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.608509 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.259576 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8592.633456 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.929838 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.480793 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.476342 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8593.771467 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.129083 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.615591 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.840325 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.874820 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.935811 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.766649 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.202937 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.383060 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.017323 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8587.996861 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.191774 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.000376 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.514322 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8592.971579 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.106826 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.030740 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.600703 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.020210 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8587.989558 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8587.841985 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.671940 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.311612 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.376554 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.838489 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8587.958450 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.233114 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.911614 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.822176 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.303896 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.604163 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.439308 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.633128 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.420997 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.233628 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8592.217811 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8594.091908 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.039663 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.410153 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.702710 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.100189 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.304239 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.000205 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.862717 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.239260 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.134092 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.691393 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.084310 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.443904 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.315807 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8592.338519 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.123788 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8592.449321 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.304827 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.459634 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.978315 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.163069 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.418295 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.829130 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8598.672666 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.004695 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8593.982095 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.326874 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.896033 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.130166 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.640689 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.964741 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8593.222738 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.752694 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.221685 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8596.197335 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.513212 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.505614 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.713198 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.139632 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.952727 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.370319 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.913609 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8592.569799 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.269671 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.657964 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.167310 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.023139 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8588.532852 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8589.145783 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8587.833366 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8590.175798 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8591.189105 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 8592.377758 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 8589.8 S.D. = 2.0359 S.E.M. = 0.028792 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 0.33s Number of obs: 2166 (from total 2166) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 8589.839 8587.813 2.026 8591.864 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil) Level 1: pupil --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept 3.51860 0.03766 93.43 0 *** 3.44323 3.59127 5000 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the pupil level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 3.08902 0.09549 2.91159 3.28100 5000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Warning message: In runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1), : You have specified a factor variable as a continuous response, you may wish to check its numeric values > > (mymodel <- runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender + (1 | pupil), estoptions = list(EstM = 1, + resi.store = TRUE), data = alevchem)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6981.553503 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6975.495876 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6977.170016 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6974.549433 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6987.372924 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6979.834694 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6979.073549 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6975.017561 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6982.168815 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6974.437984 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 1 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.033787 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6981.018543 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.134386 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.303066 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.655933 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.938961 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.785822 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6981.753925 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6978.264915 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6978.302029 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6973.311684 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.657603 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6981.113113 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6979.842499 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.499509 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6978.819279 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.731360 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6981.409846 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.532633 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.173982 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6978.587205 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6985.015993 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6982.987117 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.840844 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.247522 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6980.801764 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.492090 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.919784 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6980.239975 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6983.269559 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6979.007189 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6980.255801 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6973.163896 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.669701 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6979.062564 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.282788 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.210702 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.440436 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.008032 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6987.581713 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.861105 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6973.945698 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.269468 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6980.400688 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6984.613191 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6980.013948 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6982.668651 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6980.380937 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.505428 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.034934 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6973.525711 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6979.498111 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6978.510901 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6978.287384 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6979.216506 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.158577 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6983.529365 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.530013 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.780290 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6985.264019 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.835162 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.782097 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.199515 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.768620 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.113413 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.124897 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.409772 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.133275 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6986.589540 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6979.704381 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.731414 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.649046 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.252610 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.126693 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6988.359066 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6973.985006 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6972.728082 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.261559 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6980.313948 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6979.361811 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.151484 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.706621 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6980.061566 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.517517 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6973.600498 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6973.616489 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6981.220667 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6986.610421 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.765533 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6978.952453 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6973.990292 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6983.311075 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6978.347963 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.124291 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.318457 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6976.621971 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.253202 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6975.735417 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6974.906310 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6977.550591 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 6977.9 S.D. = 3.4566 S.E.M. = 0.048884 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Normal) Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 0.47s Number of obs: 2166 (from total 2166) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 6977.874 6971.860 6.015 6983.889 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender + (1 | pupil) Level 1: pupil --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept 3.32137 0.04062 81.76 0 *** 3.24193 3.39902 5533 gcseav 1.56134 0.05154 30.29 1.395e-201 *** 1.46152 1.66075 5000 I(gcseav^2) 0.19220 0.02701 7.12 1.106e-12 *** 0.13846 0.24533 5000 I(gcseav^3) -0.07337 0.01901 -3.86 0.0001133 *** -0.11129 -0.03628 4385 genderfemale -0.48267 0.05350 -9.02 1.852e-19 *** -0.58589 -0.37878 5000 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the pupil level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept 1.46870 0.04500 1.38465 1.56075 4772 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Warning message: In runMLwiN(a_point ~ 1 + gcseav + I(gcseav^2) + I(gcseav^3) + gender + : You have specified a factor variable as a continuous response, you may wish to check its numeric values > > predCurves(mymodel, xname = "gcseav", group = "genderfemale") > > # 13.3 Ordered multinomial modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 > > ##IGLS > (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1, D = "Ordered Multinomial", data = alevchem)) /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Multinomial) Estimation algorithm: IGLS MQL1 Elapsed time : 0.3s Number of obs: 2166 (from total 2166) The model converged after 4 iterations. Log likelihood: NA Deviance statistic: NA --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 Level 1: l1id --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Conf. Interval] Intercept_F -1.39844 0.05377 -26.01 4.274e-149 *** -1.50383 -1.29304 Intercept_E -0.70147 0.04564 -15.37 2.671e-53 *** -0.79093 -0.61201 Intercept_D -0.09981 0.04303 -2.32 0.02036 * -0.18414 -0.01547 Intercept_C 0.59498 0.04489 13.25 4.258e-40 *** 0.50699 0.68296 Intercept_B 1.60280 0.05743 27.91 2.075e-171 *** 1.49024 1.71535 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the l1id level: Coef. Std. Err. bcons_1 1.00000 0.00000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > ##MCMC > (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1, D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 2 2 2 1 1 7 Residual and/or Residual SE column are empty, starting residuals will not be used Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 7728.104312 Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 7739.547875 Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 7723.248887 Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 7726.999434 Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 7727.453701 Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 7726.933527 Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 7726.622990 Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 7725.652301 Adapting finished and took 900 iterations Adapting took 900 iterations Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7731.176784 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7728.926557 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7725.898613 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7726.649931 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7725.418044 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7728.462307 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7726.556337 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7731.403130 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7730.246241 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 7726.114927 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.702219 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.367905 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.454312 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.352189 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7728.033899 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.165429 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.678304 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.334422 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.402264 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.114108 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.768755 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.945692 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.905686 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7727.864059 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7721.755489 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.948212 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7728.047267 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.686876 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.993895 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.739353 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7728.642956 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.509654 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.019047 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.656296 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.086353 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.444499 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.935450 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.150240 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7727.465994 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7728.925983 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.772797 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.594550 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.059949 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.768811 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.292925 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7727.589705 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.274399 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.282771 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.288888 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.983088 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7727.404270 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.574859 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.113841 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.219696 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.838235 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.484422 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.866301 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.396230 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7721.950513 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.540986 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7730.685009 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7728.648974 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.943765 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.574441 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7728.202371 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.519645 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.053819 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7727.749609 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.347727 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.020679 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.946447 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.290204 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7721.948884 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.885918 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.434760 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.369876 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7732.144565 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7727.392578 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.811894 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.729564 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7730.449191 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.908146 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.316777 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.830023 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.257512 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.012928 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.130486 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.276569 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7736.575762 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7728.253735 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.712776 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7736.504544 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7730.398139 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.964394 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7723.003318 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7726.787643 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7729.580592 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.178363 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.592455 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.346690 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.289490 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.907339 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.515011 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.954299 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7728.436813 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7730.071290 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7725.458828 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7724.483245 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7722.060880 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 7731.147775 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 7726.4 S.D. = 3.1760 S.E.M. = 0.044915 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Multinomial) Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 7.09s Number of obs: 2166 (from total 2166) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 7726.435 7721.414 5.021 7731.455 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 Level 1: l1id --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept_F -1.40439 0.05393 -26.04 1.744e-149 *** -1.51012 -1.29969 201 Intercept_E -0.70630 0.04658 -15.16 6.109e-52 *** -0.80085 -0.61866 199 Intercept_D -0.10337 0.04363 -2.37 0.01783 * -0.18935 -0.01769 178 Intercept_C 0.59269 0.04555 13.01 1.062e-38 *** 0.50316 0.67788 227 Intercept_B 1.60220 0.05745 27.89 3.909e-171 *** 1.48971 1.71914 385 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the l1id level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS bcons_1 1.00000 1e-05 1.00000 1.00000 5000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > # 13.4 Adding predictor variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .191 > ##MCMC > (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + I(gcseav^3)[1:5] + gender[1:5], + D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 iteration 4 iteration 5 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 2 2 2 1 1 7 Residual and/or Residual SE column are empty, starting residuals will not be used Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 6104.800863 Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 6097.746829 Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 6098.924178 Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 6107.209238 Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 6102.844717 Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 6100.052849 Adapting finished and took 700 iterations Adapting took 700 iterations Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6095.573244 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6097.971490 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6098.834974 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6100.511213 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6099.664133 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6098.675646 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6099.413315 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6097.615842 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6094.551936 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 6098.015932 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.676272 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.323932 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6101.310958 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6103.603933 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.818222 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6108.173261 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6099.096238 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6097.651707 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6097.344687 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6102.464743 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6094.045854 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6105.854965 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6094.319842 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.443786 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6113.011088 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6104.498190 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.463345 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6098.284604 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6098.715277 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6103.289643 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.763722 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6106.309942 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.209688 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6092.113776 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.934665 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.187934 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6103.513837 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.145594 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6105.130538 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6092.500297 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.208523 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6093.817963 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6109.366001 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6101.993383 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6099.717407 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6094.087752 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.008664 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.830481 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.392022 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6102.148389 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.880737 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.577219 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.051763 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.264538 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.363937 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6106.139072 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6097.742559 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6097.580142 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6105.731944 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6093.087170 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6101.239805 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6094.818098 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.917031 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6102.108174 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.155627 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6092.274959 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6101.532807 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6097.488008 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6099.100491 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6111.993869 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6102.537681 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.998322 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.350748 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6104.183631 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6106.237262 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6105.230643 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6097.701427 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.416460 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6101.472343 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.229104 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6104.435049 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6098.889335 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.360065 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.719765 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6109.388582 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6115.383309 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6098.518056 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6104.539366 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.600613 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6103.418745 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6102.957015 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.678990 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6095.782314 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6104.528096 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6102.399629 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6102.224190 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6107.121185 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.902872 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.266935 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6104.335283 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6104.153019 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6096.481891 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6094.221489 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.803456 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6100.844259 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6098.965430 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6098.016206 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6101.427468 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6094.383217 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 6104.393162 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 6099.9 S.D. = 4.2083 S.E.M. = 0.059514 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Multinomial) Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 11.61s Number of obs: 2166 (from total 2166) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 6099.860 6090.964 8.896 6108.756 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + I(gcseav^3)[1:5] + gender[1:5] Level 1: l1id --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept_F -1.88389 0.08182 -23.03 2.599e-117 *** -2.04246 -1.72432 143 Intercept_E -0.83867 0.07196 -11.65 2.185e-31 *** -0.98014 -0.70029 129 Intercept_D 0.12816 0.06736 1.90 0.0571 . -0.00296 0.26107 144 Intercept_C 1.29669 0.07303 17.75 1.594e-70 *** 1.15546 1.43871 201 Intercept_B 2.98704 0.10140 29.46 9.747e-191 *** 2.78826 3.18299 268 gcseav_12345 -2.07941 0.09863 -21.08 1.129e-98 *** -2.27632 -1.88424 177 I(gcseav^2)_12345 -0.45422 0.05075 -8.95 3.555e-19 *** -0.55129 -0.35533 289 I(gcseav^3)_12345 -0.04984 0.03915 -1.27 0.203 -0.12880 0.02670 173 genderfemale_12345 0.75735 0.08245 9.19 4.074e-20 *** 0.59992 0.92252 263 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the l1id level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS bcons_1 1.00000 1e-05 1.00000 1.00000 5000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > # 13.5 Multilevel ordered response modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 > > # Note: Establishment codes on their own do not uniquely identify schools. > # Schools are instead uniquely identified by LEA code, establishment ID > # combination. Thus, here we generated a unique school ID. > > alevchem$school <- as.numeric(factor(paste0(alevchem$lea, alevchem$estab))) > > ##MCMC > (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school), + D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 iteration 4 iteration 5 iteration 6 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 2 2 2 1 1 7 Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5789.899888 Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5798.591468 Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5782.197552 Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5803.659812 Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5852.144273 Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5791.659275 Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5846.574118 Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5817.834445 Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5787.698398 Adapting finished and took 1000 iterations Adapting took 1000 iterations Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5847.106255 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5817.575825 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5839.723143 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5827.648428 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5862.546594 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5819.037013 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5826.427682 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5803.642416 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5813.180007 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5822.102395 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.689702 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5829.720884 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.423730 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5857.263805 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.008912 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5864.737607 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.075239 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5857.578030 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.085613 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5822.922313 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.111919 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.614336 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.173689 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.049614 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.183198 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.093143 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.665909 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5837.944063 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.276479 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.566510 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.812774 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.548007 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.415872 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.842697 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.984343 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.912804 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.489264 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5810.903353 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.179311 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5818.492211 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.637259 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5828.953520 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.093315 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5806.582846 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.851843 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.011475 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.926824 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5830.713320 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.287579 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.099476 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.033039 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.719926 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.709919 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.270697 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.268104 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.740863 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.847067 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.065879 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5828.127377 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.576368 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5831.921271 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5805.884577 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5845.209646 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.313031 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5823.386810 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5837.851990 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.180793 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.855672 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5844.079044 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.991640 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.105264 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.736757 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.469384 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5837.590276 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.796428 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.984615 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.141861 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.298636 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.745296 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.974337 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.814568 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.748841 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.181678 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.017360 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.032513 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.592127 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5862.170307 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.174816 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.906803 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5827.778873 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5860.584377 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5835.084573 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.642795 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5818.375436 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.706617 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5835.348809 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.155352 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5827.237008 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5831.664787 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5845.382166 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5830.520355 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.706739 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5839.311568 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.733066 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.447959 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.935271 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5850.942926 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.888938 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.398943 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.484267 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 5814.8 S.D. = 23.134 S.E.M. = 0.32717 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Multinomial) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 220 1 9.845455 94 220 1 9.845455 94 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 12.2s Number of obs: 2166 (from total 2166) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 5814.819 5692.565 122.253 5937.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] | school) Level 2: school Level 1: l1id --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept_F -1.93053 0.11114 -17.37 1.387e-67 *** -2.15321 -1.72481 84 Intercept_E -0.77288 0.10381 -7.45 9.682e-14 *** -0.97876 -0.57760 64 Intercept_D 0.29717 0.10367 2.87 0.00415 ** 0.09871 0.49680 59 Intercept_C 1.55949 0.11150 13.99 1.881e-44 *** 1.34153 1.77609 78 Intercept_B 3.36283 0.13169 25.54 7.768e-144 *** 3.09880 3.61510 90 gcseav_12345 -2.26915 0.07218 -31.44 6.215e-217 *** -2.41140 -2.12468 280 I(gcseav^2)_12345 -0.45817 0.04577 -10.01 1.375e-23 *** -0.54707 -0.36460 383 genderfemale_12345 0.74993 0.09208 8.14 3.8e-16 *** 0.57221 0.93418 315 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_Intercept_12345 0.64392 0.13723 0.41543 0.96019 198 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the l1id level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS bcons_1 1.00000 1e-05 1.00000 1.00000 5000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > > ##MCMC > (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school), + D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = alevchem)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 iteration 4 iteration 5 iteration 6 iteration 7 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 2 2 2 1 1 7 Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5776.942836 Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5813.986465 Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5771.619831 Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5744.665949 Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5767.763090 Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5706.859454 Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5740.958205 Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5780.556304 Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5746.016020 Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5757.962559 Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5783.681459 Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5766.140388 Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5764.907004 Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5751.456024 Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5769.368774 Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5759.020017 Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5814.288552 Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5773.103370 Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5752.781816 Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5812.490169 Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5804.554161 Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5801.201975 Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5743.462046 Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5746.936538 Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5788.035267 Adapting finished and took 2600 iterations Adapting took 2600 iterations Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5820.834292 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5759.236958 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5788.828194 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5794.626091 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5773.977447 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5769.347172 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5749.333358 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5833.720914 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5758.378554 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5737.157030 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7 Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5727.615043 Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.991023 Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.073450 Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5743.789427 Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5866.020346 Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.315451 Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.526331 Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.892600 Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.580706 Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.612220 Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.605497 Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.062473 Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.116135 Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.678822 Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5808.865370 Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.781446 Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.199478 Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5735.564022 Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.749274 Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.152069 Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.001352 Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.111925 Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.447672 Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.389307 Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.924840 Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.893207 Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.286263 Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.420513 Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.440923 Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.933510 Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.588479 Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5836.620054 Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.270079 Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.118861 Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.032974 Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.604366 Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.265095 Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.700412 Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.163964 Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.564971 Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.940803 Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.543917 Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5743.848283 Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.900822 Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5862.276165 Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5755.291878 Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.072335 Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.174949 Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5728.016207 Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5746.964367 Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.095730 Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.868922 Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.174043 Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.747151 Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.212608 Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.358469 Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.318077 Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.483530 Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.225381 Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5844.415807 Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.371858 Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.137807 Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5726.932870 Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.386133 Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.109633 Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5737.380953 Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.479232 Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.370485 Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.410723 Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.154174 Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.904661 Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.442311 Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.101766 Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.323942 Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.779496 Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.034094 Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5748.020680 Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5818.238320 Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.724706 Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.733433 Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.270365 Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.199551 Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.796519 Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5745.638154 Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.509507 Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.355153 Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.215868 Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.518214 Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.529937 Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.680030 Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.157590 Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.554875 Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.657568 Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.894547 Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.747182 Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.398975 Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.841373 Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.346025 Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.311421 Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000 -2 * Loglike = 5753.593793 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 5000 Average = 5779.8 S.D. = 27.020 S.E.M. = 0.38213 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Multinomial) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 220 1 9.845455 94 220 1 9.845455 94 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 16.88s Number of obs: 2166 (from total 2166) Number of iter.: 5000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 5779.812 5631.220 148.592 5928.403 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school) Level 2: school Level 1: l1id --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept_F -1.96766 0.10483 -18.77 1.349e-78 *** -2.17625 -1.75728 115 Intercept_E -0.79025 0.09584 -8.25 1.64e-16 *** -0.97425 -0.59735 83 Intercept_D 0.28683 0.09847 2.91 0.003582 ** 0.09748 0.48787 83 Intercept_C 1.55977 0.10496 14.86 5.968e-50 *** 1.35020 1.75521 82 Intercept_B 3.37472 0.12591 26.80 2.974e-158 *** 3.11744 3.62296 126 gcseav_12345 -2.30974 0.08094 -28.54 4.147e-179 *** -2.47066 -2.15060 237 I(gcseav^2)_12345 -0.44151 0.05000 -8.83 1.042e-18 *** -0.53661 -0.34317 438 genderfemale_12345 0.75232 0.10050 7.49 7.096e-14 *** 0.55900 0.94373 252 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_gcseav_12345 0.13480 0.06346 0.04160 0.27692 30 cov_gcseav_12345_Intercept_12345 -0.02778 0.06300 -0.14639 0.10106 96 var_Intercept_12345 0.61193 0.12805 0.40400 0.90175 223 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the l1id level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS bcons_1 1.00000 1e-05 1.00000 1.00000 5000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept_12345", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 300, "sigma2v6") > > ##Increases iterations to 50,000 > (mymodel <- runMLwiN(logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school), + D = "Ordered Multinomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000)), data = alevchem)) MLwiN is running, please wait...... /nogui option ignored ECHO 0 Echoing is ON BATC 1 Batch mode is ON MAXI 2 STAR iteration 0 iteration 1 Convergence not achieved TOLE 2 MAXI 20 BATC 1 Batch mode is ON NEXT iteration 2 iteration 3 iteration 4 iteration 5 iteration 6 iteration 7 Convergence achieved ECHO 0 Echoing is ON MCMC 0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2] 2 2 2 1 1 7 Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5776.942836 Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5813.986465 Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5771.619831 Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5744.665949 Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5767.763090 Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5706.859454 Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5740.958205 Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5780.556304 Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5746.016020 Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5757.962559 Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5783.681459 Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5766.140388 Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5764.907004 Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5751.456024 Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5769.368774 Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5759.020017 Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5814.288552 Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5773.103370 Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5752.781816 Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5812.490169 Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5804.554161 Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5801.201975 Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5743.462046 Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5746.936538 Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000) -2 * Loglike = 5788.035267 Adapting finished and took 2600 iterations Adapting took 2600 iterations Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5820.834292 Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5759.236958 Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5788.828194 Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5794.626091 Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5773.977447 Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5769.347172 Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5749.333358 Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5833.720914 Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5758.378554 Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500 -2 * Loglike = 5737.157030 ERAS G30 LINK 0 G30 ERAS c1090 c1091 MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 7 Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5727.615043 Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.991023 Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.073450 Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5743.789427 Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5866.020346 Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.315451 Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.526331 Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.892600 Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.580706 Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.612220 Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.605497 Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.062473 Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.116135 Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.678822 Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5808.865370 Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.781446 Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.199478 Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5735.564022 Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.749274 Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.152069 Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.001352 Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.111925 Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.447672 Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.389307 Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.924840 Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.893207 Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.286263 Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.420513 Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.440923 Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.933510 Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.588479 Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5836.620054 Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.270079 Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.118861 Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.032974 Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.604366 Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.265095 Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.700412 Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.163964 Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.564971 Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.940803 Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.543917 Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5743.848283 Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.900822 Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5862.276165 Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5755.291878 Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.072335 Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.174949 Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5728.016207 Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5746.964367 Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.095730 Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.868922 Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.174043 Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.747151 Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.212608 Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.358469 Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.318077 Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.483530 Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.225381 Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5844.415807 Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.371858 Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.137807 Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5726.932870 Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.386133 Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.109633 Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5737.380953 Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.479232 Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.370485 Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.410723 Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.154174 Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.904661 Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.442311 Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.101766 Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.323942 Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.779496 Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.034094 Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5748.020680 Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5818.238320 Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.724706 Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.733433 Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.270365 Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.199551 Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.796519 Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5745.638154 Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.509507 Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.355153 Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.215868 Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.518214 Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.529937 Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.680030 Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.157590 Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.554875 Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.657568 Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.894547 Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.747182 Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.398975 Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.841373 Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.346025 Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.311421 Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5753.593793 Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5736.914867 Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.363324 Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.034470 Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5724.785067 Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5840.339856 Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.083353 Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.092405 Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5818.018208 Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.401368 Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.074274 Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.912611 Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.048004 Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.085277 Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.570422 Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.265043 Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.293301 Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.058008 Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.978971 Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.307984 Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.762736 Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.549560 Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.134978 Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5753.443545 Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.229332 Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.836720 Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.248389 Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.890149 Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.898307 Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.511698 Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.980582 Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.316117 Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.774297 Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.885009 Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.753323 Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.644887 Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.431774 Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.112498 Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.486087 Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5737.049783 Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5723.847447 Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.652047 Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.117137 Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.033739 Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5755.046540 Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5728.709965 Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5837.780006 Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.524031 Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.085691 Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5840.095322 Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5830.288036 Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.295751 Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5857.743959 Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.390656 Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.131635 Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.256196 Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.682047 Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.235048 Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.020802 Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.022268 Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.138765 Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5747.136768 Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.488133 Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.649706 Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.032548 Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.271958 Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.479036 Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.144361 Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.457015 Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.543214 Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.139162 Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.104148 Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.924661 Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.982042 Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.838609 Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.104760 Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.226204 Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.683551 Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.882623 Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.101774 Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.434567 Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.075701 Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.829359 Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.620781 Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.821342 Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.289799 Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5747.686961 Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.753566 Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.323323 Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5731.115146 Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.508046 Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5830.480833 Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.218970 Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.182497 Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.673347 Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.913441 Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.686555 Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.871058 Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.387427 Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.279840 Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.998491 Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.127788 Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.186557 Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.895992 Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.163194 Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.876076 Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5846.323564 Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.666940 Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.125432 Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.453354 Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.122442 Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.710621 Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.443715 Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.789059 Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.998272 Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.831194 Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5755.240785 Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.760852 Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.700398 Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.886911 Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.296584 Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.764458 Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.455626 Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5755.112944 Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.556158 Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.976364 Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.600340 Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.396879 Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.130884 Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.534496 Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.420944 Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5827.768947 Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.590657 Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.056292 Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.792488 Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.457263 Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.700385 Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.184901 Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.285961 Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.628580 Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5737.623109 Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.909763 Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5743.166584 Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.265813 Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.931125 Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.835309 Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.884461 Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.855132 Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.186714 Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.818672 Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.853209 Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.552410 Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.550377 Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5734.187873 Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.778060 Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5710.176772 Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.868092 Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.506909 Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.534579 Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.581748 Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.999973 Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5709.491479 Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.275521 Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.226700 Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.205943 Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.090561 Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.860849 Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.417159 Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.000139 Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5822.735630 Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.503138 Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.354652 Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.692756 Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.841186 Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.328528 Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5740.138093 Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.298021 Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5810.305505 Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.091371 Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.188696 Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5841.359134 Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.514138 Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5753.625827 Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.632259 Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.554591 Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.019993 Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5829.138281 Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.757538 Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.332309 Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.943121 Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.610976 Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.172262 Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.750489 Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.306763 Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5810.033502 Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.823956 Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.609795 Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5736.733656 Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.219157 Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5731.112793 Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.515746 Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.043411 Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.792753 Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.005210 Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.420083 Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.500422 Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.522339 Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.984174 Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.517027 Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.365566 Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.677852 Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.522092 Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.270373 Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5715.809000 Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.784557 Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.102153 Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.820642 Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.245393 Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5846.529798 Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.066061 Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.436970 Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5742.868650 Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5818.260824 Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.228769 Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5729.886260 Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.085202 Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.742047 Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.112969 Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.818857 Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.766164 Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.560793 Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.444799 Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.408427 Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5730.802348 Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.906387 Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.325745 Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.890110 Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5723.634729 Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.793421 Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.029624 Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.634371 Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.133252 Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.949022 Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.945860 Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.063699 Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.445075 Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.826905 Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.333970 Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.019567 Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.153659 Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.263556 Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.284492 Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.875431 Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.884329 Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5856.593614 Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.148351 Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.725018 Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.563595 Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.422300 Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.171165 Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5736.049514 Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.527461 Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.730259 Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.350233 Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.512019 Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5732.533430 Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5731.406611 Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.180969 Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.550431 Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.967973 Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.546502 Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.418713 Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.362522 Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5740.813401 Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.669002 Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5816.806489 Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5844.905923 Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.118299 Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.614759 Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5733.897640 Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.762032 Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5737.224187 Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.132767 Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.447017 Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.051580 Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.525334 Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.029287 Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.927851 Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.871061 Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.920319 Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.815345 Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.637476 Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.652291 Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5823.922471 Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.325036 Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5836.298568 Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.895490 Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.739930 Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.348072 Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.859099 Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.298214 Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.440035 Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5805.359891 Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.246816 Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.545298 Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.487538 Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.766872 Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.898118 Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.444418 Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.261429 Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5733.883352 Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.028121 Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5825.637521 Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5808.932772 Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.923407 Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5736.144819 Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.257246 Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5823.019247 Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.865092 Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.690903 Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.810709 Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.657940 Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5755.467190 Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5841.422040 Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.975182 Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.719422 Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.159060 Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.071467 Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.479241 Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5808.657923 Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.699760 Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5829.121565 Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5735.431842 Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5735.054202 Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.164975 Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.361222 Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.333261 Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.780264 Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.268738 Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.159975 Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.072984 Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5829.542302 Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.376708 Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5731.368509 Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.149390 Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.633670 Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.630713 Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.165158 Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.061196 Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.968548 Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.332364 Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5740.568421 Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.092931 Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5740.170463 Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.213531 Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.846505 Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.838250 Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.363964 Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.427429 Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.563304 Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.653800 Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.843769 Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.847889 Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.149229 Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.554661 Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.106244 Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.824055 Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5735.903415 Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.026756 Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.697478 Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5828.120917 Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.123118 Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5748.420774 Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.325467 Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.779535 Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5806.565311 Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.330487 Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.958864 Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.712054 Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.991005 Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.295530 Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.197729 Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.344774 Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5737.405260 Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.345521 Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.058125 Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.329807 Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.207534 Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.539993 Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.570054 Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5747.709260 Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.958864 Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.986047 Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.041160 Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5806.924594 Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.909038 Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.704221 Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.826320 Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5761.283109 Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.475351 Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.623734 Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.749196 Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5740.512404 Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.500400 Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.266467 Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.605581 Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.611811 Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5833.269622 Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.705014 Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.504434 Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.051408 Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.261282 Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5808.439509 Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.136024 Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5750.362398 Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.813694 Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.780565 Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.249440 Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.122160 Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.240148 Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.989559 Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.194447 Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.498282 Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.573949 Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5753.995264 Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.809870 Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.400550 Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.315757 Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.243500 Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.344108 Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.531796 Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.014123 Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5826.044997 Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5732.053746 Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.261415 Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.054327 Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.798702 Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.706178 Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.048376 Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.569539 Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.084359 Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.390939 Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.016851 Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.775105 Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.978513 Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.391663 Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5832.721357 Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.078412 Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.179006 Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.670053 Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.014711 Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.618588 Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.984740 Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.276042 Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.441909 Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.973061 Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.262739 Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.818863 Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.729474 Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5822.267511 Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.043588 Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.809383 Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.658463 Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.767289 Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5731.874618 Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.858091 Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.510583 Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.974314 Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.374544 Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.799081 Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.011115 Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.875729 Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.177319 Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.539037 Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.915581 Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.104133 Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5823.732123 Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.026026 Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5718.042199 Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.128152 Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.129118 Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.705140 Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.877361 Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.037402 Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.424364 Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.542417 Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.240832 Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.717589 Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.687951 Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5734.054741 Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5724.836075 Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.053465 Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.768964 Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.671026 Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.628608 Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.271271 Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.636409 Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5726.189765 Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.012542 Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.127622 Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5846.254951 Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.704520 Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.959446 Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.671250 Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.712255 Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.293572 Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.640897 Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.054466 Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.313323 Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.476091 Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.400590 Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.558560 Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.276011 Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5743.011182 Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5828.234185 Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.357756 Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.274210 Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.496291 Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.958249 Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.501775 Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.016413 Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.535019 Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5827.750546 Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.420370 Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.077455 Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.266897 Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.940406 Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.854619 Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.782628 Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.657122 Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5729.127370 Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.572304 Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.627817 Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.062884 Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.742726 Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5733.135338 Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.833171 Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.899224 Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.754878 Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.962611 Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.307369 Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.529718 Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.154846 Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.203926 Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.621208 Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.181379 Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.662156 Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.495711 Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.697304 Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.600562 Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5831.159909 Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.658555 Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.323995 Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5805.558233 Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5808.026728 Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.809844 Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5738.809747 Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.459326 Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5818.678172 Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.525219 Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.560423 Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5842.805569 Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5815.864310 Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.820495 Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.533072 Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.847870 Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.475939 Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.060651 Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5753.979047 Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.435688 Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.208139 Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.273470 Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.694950 Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.969307 Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.228346 Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.217948 Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5835.698656 Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5831.465226 Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.218934 Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.324662 Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5742.459047 Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.883189 Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.874421 Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5748.660554 Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5846.439178 Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.158791 Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.947184 Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5839.353622 Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.539094 Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.216893 Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5833.556494 Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.740342 Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.571857 Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5738.657304 Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.705491 Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.367094 Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.283815 Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.516370 Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.284368 Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5747.621080 Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5825.234103 Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5754.833511 Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.767476 Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.277341 Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.878749 Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5842.234192 Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.548787 Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.738980 Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5744.569579 Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5724.467659 Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.232919 Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.213612 Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.760004 Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.665870 Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5810.431692 Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.924074 Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5822.237307 Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5859.501381 Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5808.361881 Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.303576 Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.925592 Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.181454 Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5810.191830 Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.230055 Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.603342 Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5740.984373 Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.770833 Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.873024 Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.404371 Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.085773 Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5737.368651 Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5753.571495 Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5730.318234 Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.755718 Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.581480 Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.610399 Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.480960 Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5810.689933 Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.343799 Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5749.156396 Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.984751 Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.523225 Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5724.579307 Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.733938 Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5748.704958 Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.361433 Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5805.547890 Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.540656 Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5838.902707 Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.544255 Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.856204 Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.619313 Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.739550 Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.165620 Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.114316 Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.675229 Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.132253 Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5838.611907 Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.835152 Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.385207 Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.529378 Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.577867 Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.817115 Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5739.874972 Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.390769 Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.672912 Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.644937 Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.846120 Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.463118 Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.067052 Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.603265 Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5840.780845 Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5814.217902 Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.711826 Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.464473 Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5737.558455 Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.801472 Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.343929 Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.198727 Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.708740 Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.209726 Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.064412 Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.014563 Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.639497 Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.863036 Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.441761 Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.474485 Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5825.934473 Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.046722 Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.141149 Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5812.192130 Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.515940 Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.564118 Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.291960 Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.462558 Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.916125 Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.271048 Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.129185 Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.297337 Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5834.658740 Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5710.351502 Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5829.249999 Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.511775 Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5748.232150 Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.939266 Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5789.136334 Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.122656 Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5750.398822 Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.729979 Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.583771 Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.527373 Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5790.584087 Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.229188 Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.706562 Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5847.482189 Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5796.154232 Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5747.722888 Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5798.774182 Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.434943 Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.589072 Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5776.223809 Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5831.346205 Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5825.011676 Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5809.903397 Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.977105 Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.079450 Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.398799 Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.275856 Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.534001 Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5836.798142 Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.795875 Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.425475 Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.055941 Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.241173 Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.688982 Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5713.031728 Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.618933 Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.394971 Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.270695 Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.510681 Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.979197 Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.869422 Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.719269 Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5805.101191 Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.202324 Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.549453 Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.171096 Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.194682 Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5752.297212 Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5833.730540 Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.204862 Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5777.633481 Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.001695 Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5802.807437 Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.156640 Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5719.286780 Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5758.803949 Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.105704 Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.889246 Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.481701 Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5750.047494 Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5755.664847 Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.016482 Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5841.686865 Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.160229 Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.644734 Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.536760 Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.989414 Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.117027 Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.286938 Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5797.094861 Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.586197 Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.521374 Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.112604 Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5851.366280 Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.785240 Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5827.076901 Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.686017 Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5794.547131 Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.854830 Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5782.047877 Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5793.981883 Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.415334 Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5726.764696 Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.182560 Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5823.682308 Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5756.034986 Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.370868 Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5783.848153 Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.048920 Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5784.883930 Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5740.317834 Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.774350 Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5741.147978 Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5757.607226 Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.012263 Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5726.831260 Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.902189 Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.244008 Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.445280 Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.107536 Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.305432 Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5751.431492 Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5763.861009 Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.481387 Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5825.513228 Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.018276 Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.850884 Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.876812 Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.785835 Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.861328 Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.596263 Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.133653 Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5820.613924 Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5806.306928 Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.563422 Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5806.450469 Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.725912 Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.180677 Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5791.430588 Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.957605 Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.158907 Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.386257 Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5733.982144 Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5775.687419 Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5753.111692 Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5730.684565 Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5771.936983 Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5788.346663 Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5770.686362 Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5803.450717 Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5847.060170 Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5836.016649 Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5764.006726 Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5773.780122 Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.741270 Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.829780 Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5765.891122 Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5817.315794 Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.018272 Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5837.761800 Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5832.953662 Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.995844 Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5825.850750 Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.353529 Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5821.154420 Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.632799 Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5787.608057 Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5813.619756 Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.687255 Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.075995 Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.434611 Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5799.600802 Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.593615 Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.972352 Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5781.795088 Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.073808 Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5736.077897 Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.248043 Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5835.840936 Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5767.667803 Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5832.312314 Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5824.609541 Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5780.011407 Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5819.781703 Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5807.185193 Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.131739 Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5772.338773 Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5733.970621 Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.501492 Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5810.353722 Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.229701 Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5747.248099 Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5762.932727 Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5830.280656 Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5768.302560 Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.661442 Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5769.719566 Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5725.686257 Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5740.873698 Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5778.055045 Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5795.009927 Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5760.236952 Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5811.671106 Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5759.580796 Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5792.449468 Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.378100 Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5732.624701 Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5833.113257 Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5801.761130 Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5804.935241 Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5800.415966 Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5733.321979 Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5785.371465 Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5766.004884 Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.022290 Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5836.515638 Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5786.569233 Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5827.147814 Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5774.395502 Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000 -2 * Loglike = 5779.139639 PUPN c1003 c1004 AVER c1091 b99 b100 Count = 50000 Average = 5782.5 S.D. = 28.002 S.E.M. = 0.12523 ECHO 0 Execution completed -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- MLwiN (version: 3.05) multilevel model (Multinomial) N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete school 220 1 9.845455 94 220 1 9.845455 94 Estimation algorithm: MCMC Elapsed time : 114.01s Number of obs: 2166 (from total 2166) Number of iter.: 50000 Chains: 1 Burn-in: 500 Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) Dbar D(thetabar) pD DIC 5782.495 5635.690 146.805 5929.301 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The model formula: logit(a_point, cons, 6) ~ 1 + gcseav[1:5] + I(gcseav^2)[1:5] + gender[1:5] + (1[1:5] + gcseav[1:5] | school) Level 2: school Level 1: l1id --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fixed part estimates: Coef. Std. Err. z Pr(>|z|) [95% Cred. Interval] ESS Intercept_F -1.93518 0.11100 -17.43 4.52e-68 *** -2.15123 -1.71686 785 Intercept_E -0.75893 0.10122 -7.50 6.488e-14 *** -0.95352 -0.55969 635 Intercept_D 0.31757 0.10052 3.16 0.001582 ** 0.12452 0.51529 610 Intercept_C 1.58616 0.10809 14.67 9.482e-49 *** 1.37892 1.80284 639 Intercept_B 3.39721 0.13373 25.40 2.286e-142 *** 3.13875 3.66185 793 gcseav_12345 -2.30551 0.08116 -28.41 1.606e-177 *** -2.46732 -2.14967 2008 I(gcseav^2)_12345 -0.44669 0.05102 -8.76 2.025e-18 *** -0.54648 -0.34775 2524 genderfemale_12345 0.73645 0.09582 7.69 1.521e-14 *** 0.54886 0.92088 2183 Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the school level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS var_gcseav_12345 0.11963 0.07217 0.02335 0.29689 212 cov_gcseav_12345_Intercept_12345 -0.03050 0.06700 -0.16688 0.10020 691 var_Intercept_12345 0.62132 0.13117 0.39828 0.91139 1812 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The random part estimates at the l1id level: Coef. Std. Err. [95% Cred. Interval] ESS bcons_1 1.00000 0.00000 1.00000 1.00000 50000 -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- > sixway(mymodel@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept_12345", drop = FALSE], acf.maxlag = 300, "sigma2v6") > > # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128 > > > > > > ############################################################################ > > proc.time() user system elapsed 10.14 1.51 176.46