R version 3.6.3 (2020-02-29) -- "Holding the Windsock"
Copyright (C) 2020 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

  Natural language support but running in an English locale

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 10  Modelling Binary Responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2017 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.05/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> # User's input if necessary
> 
> ## Read bang1 data
> data(bang1, package = "R2MLwiN")
> 
> # 10.1 Simple logistic regression model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130
> 
> (mymodel1 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2589.951603
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2590.870573
Adapting finished and took 300 iterations
Adapting took 300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.646899
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.408544
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.703242
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.578707
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.143776
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.497722
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.866468
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.366495
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2601.081625
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2590.826384

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.768209
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.974846
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.681292
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.029755
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.956166
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.700843
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.249050
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.764631
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.215259
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.583255
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.738290
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2599.665863
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.851598
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.064439
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.602086
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.016924
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.673363
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.401756
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.806336
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.859640
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.674262
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.332550
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.929091
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.027123
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.651481
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.305020
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.219008
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.793939
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.448211
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.191911
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.086373
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.539469
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.927492
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.508995
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.905070
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.755927
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.259256
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.056615
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.229959
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.161462
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.898548
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.782298
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.749425
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.438829
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.692805
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.387252
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.241413
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.300298
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.469366
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.291484
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.115828
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.134031
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.254941
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.757296
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491965
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.248874
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.171248
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.329180
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.887602
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.460348
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.804734
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.476827
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.524551
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.356007
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.321576
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.285680
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197588
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.992028
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.900265
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613041
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.566051
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.248283
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.675361
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.528497
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.472607
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815054
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.423243
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.429422
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500183
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.090979
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.064172
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.588351
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.532194
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2600.825764
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.877217
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.619297
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.853876
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.211902
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.607546
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.407865
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.268036
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.484512
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.891584
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.687159
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.627120
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.106576
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.048963
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.781838
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.584549
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.501194
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2591.3
S.D.    =          1.9941
S.E.M.  =        0.028200

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 2s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2591.294   2589.293   2.001      2593.294   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.43858     0.04731  -9.27   1.863e-20  ***    -0.53074    -0.34677   1100 
age          0.00681     0.00509   1.34      0.1803         -0.00333     0.01649   1145 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> summary(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     6.814e-03      5.086e-03      7.193e-05      1.503e-04 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

     2.5%       25%       50%       75%     97.5% 
-0.003334  0.003406  0.006793  0.010430  0.016486 

> sixway(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age", drop = FALSE], "beta_1")
> 
> ## 15,000 iterations
> (mymodel2 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 15000)), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2589.951603
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2590.870573
Adapting finished and took 300 iterations
Adapting took 300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.646899
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.408544
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.703242
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.578707
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.143776
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.497722
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2589.866468
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2591.366495
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2601.081625
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2590.826384

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 15000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 15000, Stored update 50 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.768209
Actual update 100 of 15000, Stored update 100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.974846
Actual update 150 of 15000, Stored update 150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.681292
Actual update 200 of 15000, Stored update 200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.029755
Actual update 250 of 15000, Stored update 250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.956166
Actual update 300 of 15000, Stored update 300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.700843
Actual update 350 of 15000, Stored update 350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.249050
Actual update 400 of 15000, Stored update 400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.764631
Actual update 450 of 15000, Stored update 450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.215259
Actual update 500 of 15000, Stored update 500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.583255
Actual update 550 of 15000, Stored update 550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.738290
Actual update 600 of 15000, Stored update 600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2599.665863
Actual update 650 of 15000, Stored update 650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.851598
Actual update 700 of 15000, Stored update 700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.064439
Actual update 750 of 15000, Stored update 750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.602086
Actual update 800 of 15000, Stored update 800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.016924
Actual update 850 of 15000, Stored update 850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.673363
Actual update 900 of 15000, Stored update 900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.401756
Actual update 950 of 15000, Stored update 950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.806336
Actual update 1000 of 15000, Stored update 1000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.859640
Actual update 1050 of 15000, Stored update 1050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.674262
Actual update 1100 of 15000, Stored update 1100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.332550
Actual update 1150 of 15000, Stored update 1150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.929091
Actual update 1200 of 15000, Stored update 1200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.027123
Actual update 1250 of 15000, Stored update 1250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.651481
Actual update 1300 of 15000, Stored update 1300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.305020
Actual update 1350 of 15000, Stored update 1350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.219008
Actual update 1400 of 15000, Stored update 1400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.793939
Actual update 1450 of 15000, Stored update 1450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.448211
Actual update 1500 of 15000, Stored update 1500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.191911
Actual update 1550 of 15000, Stored update 1550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.086373
Actual update 1600 of 15000, Stored update 1600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.539469
Actual update 1650 of 15000, Stored update 1650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.927492
Actual update 1700 of 15000, Stored update 1700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.508995
Actual update 1750 of 15000, Stored update 1750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.905070
Actual update 1800 of 15000, Stored update 1800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.755927
Actual update 1850 of 15000, Stored update 1850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.259256
Actual update 1900 of 15000, Stored update 1900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.056615
Actual update 1950 of 15000, Stored update 1950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.229959
Actual update 2000 of 15000, Stored update 2000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.161462
Actual update 2050 of 15000, Stored update 2050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.898548
Actual update 2100 of 15000, Stored update 2100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.782298
Actual update 2150 of 15000, Stored update 2150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.749425
Actual update 2200 of 15000, Stored update 2200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.438829
Actual update 2250 of 15000, Stored update 2250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.692805
Actual update 2300 of 15000, Stored update 2300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.387252
Actual update 2350 of 15000, Stored update 2350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.241413
Actual update 2400 of 15000, Stored update 2400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.300298
Actual update 2450 of 15000, Stored update 2450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.469366
Actual update 2500 of 15000, Stored update 2500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.291484
Actual update 2550 of 15000, Stored update 2550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.115828
Actual update 2600 of 15000, Stored update 2600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.134031
Actual update 2650 of 15000, Stored update 2650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.254941
Actual update 2700 of 15000, Stored update 2700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.757296
Actual update 2750 of 15000, Stored update 2750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491965
Actual update 2800 of 15000, Stored update 2800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.248874
Actual update 2850 of 15000, Stored update 2850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.171248
Actual update 2900 of 15000, Stored update 2900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.329180
Actual update 2950 of 15000, Stored update 2950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.887602
Actual update 3000 of 15000, Stored update 3000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.460348
Actual update 3050 of 15000, Stored update 3050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.804734
Actual update 3100 of 15000, Stored update 3100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.476827
Actual update 3150 of 15000, Stored update 3150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.524551
Actual update 3200 of 15000, Stored update 3200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.356007
Actual update 3250 of 15000, Stored update 3250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.321576
Actual update 3300 of 15000, Stored update 3300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.285680
Actual update 3350 of 15000, Stored update 3350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197588
Actual update 3400 of 15000, Stored update 3400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.992028
Actual update 3450 of 15000, Stored update 3450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.900265
Actual update 3500 of 15000, Stored update 3500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613041
Actual update 3550 of 15000, Stored update 3550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.566051
Actual update 3600 of 15000, Stored update 3600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.248283
Actual update 3650 of 15000, Stored update 3650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.675361
Actual update 3700 of 15000, Stored update 3700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.528497
Actual update 3750 of 15000, Stored update 3750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.472607
Actual update 3800 of 15000, Stored update 3800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815054
Actual update 3850 of 15000, Stored update 3850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.423243
Actual update 3900 of 15000, Stored update 3900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.429422
Actual update 3950 of 15000, Stored update 3950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500183
Actual update 4000 of 15000, Stored update 4000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.090979
Actual update 4050 of 15000, Stored update 4050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.064172
Actual update 4100 of 15000, Stored update 4100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.588351
Actual update 4150 of 15000, Stored update 4150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.532194
Actual update 4200 of 15000, Stored update 4200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2600.825764
Actual update 4250 of 15000, Stored update 4250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.877217
Actual update 4300 of 15000, Stored update 4300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.619297
Actual update 4350 of 15000, Stored update 4350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.853876
Actual update 4400 of 15000, Stored update 4400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.211902
Actual update 4450 of 15000, Stored update 4450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.607546
Actual update 4500 of 15000, Stored update 4500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.407865
Actual update 4550 of 15000, Stored update 4550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.268036
Actual update 4600 of 15000, Stored update 4600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.484512
Actual update 4650 of 15000, Stored update 4650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.891584
Actual update 4700 of 15000, Stored update 4700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.687159
Actual update 4750 of 15000, Stored update 4750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.627120
Actual update 4800 of 15000, Stored update 4800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.106576
Actual update 4850 of 15000, Stored update 4850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.048963
Actual update 4900 of 15000, Stored update 4900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.781838
Actual update 4950 of 15000, Stored update 4950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.584549
Actual update 5000 of 15000, Stored update 5000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.501194
Actual update 5050 of 15000, Stored update 5050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.326785
Actual update 5100 of 15000, Stored update 5100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.897769
Actual update 5150 of 15000, Stored update 5150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.727437
Actual update 5200 of 15000, Stored update 5200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.311384
Actual update 5250 of 15000, Stored update 5250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.833062
Actual update 5300 of 15000, Stored update 5300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.147899
Actual update 5350 of 15000, Stored update 5350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.559319
Actual update 5400 of 15000, Stored update 5400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.140640
Actual update 5450 of 15000, Stored update 5450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.315305
Actual update 5500 of 15000, Stored update 5500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.500863
Actual update 5550 of 15000, Stored update 5550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.371565
Actual update 5600 of 15000, Stored update 5600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.953330
Actual update 5650 of 15000, Stored update 5650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.371833
Actual update 5700 of 15000, Stored update 5700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.840891
Actual update 5750 of 15000, Stored update 5750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.173621
Actual update 5800 of 15000, Stored update 5800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.778510
Actual update 5850 of 15000, Stored update 5850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.685790
Actual update 5900 of 15000, Stored update 5900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.110700
Actual update 5950 of 15000, Stored update 5950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.658122
Actual update 6000 of 15000, Stored update 6000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.781574
Actual update 6050 of 15000, Stored update 6050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.308886
Actual update 6100 of 15000, Stored update 6100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.040881
Actual update 6150 of 15000, Stored update 6150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.451545
Actual update 6200 of 15000, Stored update 6200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.759446
Actual update 6250 of 15000, Stored update 6250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.234311
Actual update 6300 of 15000, Stored update 6300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.918111
Actual update 6350 of 15000, Stored update 6350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.403790
Actual update 6400 of 15000, Stored update 6400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.888412
Actual update 6450 of 15000, Stored update 6450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.630759
Actual update 6500 of 15000, Stored update 6500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.121933
Actual update 6550 of 15000, Stored update 6550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.775539
Actual update 6600 of 15000, Stored update 6600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.366354
Actual update 6650 of 15000, Stored update 6650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.896814
Actual update 6700 of 15000, Stored update 6700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.432262
Actual update 6750 of 15000, Stored update 6750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.144790
Actual update 6800 of 15000, Stored update 6800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.888364
Actual update 6850 of 15000, Stored update 6850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.653521
Actual update 6900 of 15000, Stored update 6900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.598193
Actual update 6950 of 15000, Stored update 6950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.533812
Actual update 7000 of 15000, Stored update 7000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.117119
Actual update 7050 of 15000, Stored update 7050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.710367
Actual update 7100 of 15000, Stored update 7100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.445705
Actual update 7150 of 15000, Stored update 7150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.902012
Actual update 7200 of 15000, Stored update 7200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.494178
Actual update 7250 of 15000, Stored update 7250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.129225
Actual update 7300 of 15000, Stored update 7300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.684554
Actual update 7350 of 15000, Stored update 7350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.503688
Actual update 7400 of 15000, Stored update 7400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.659162
Actual update 7450 of 15000, Stored update 7450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.280975
Actual update 7500 of 15000, Stored update 7500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.077884
Actual update 7550 of 15000, Stored update 7550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.611580
Actual update 7600 of 15000, Stored update 7600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.480002
Actual update 7650 of 15000, Stored update 7650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.226368
Actual update 7700 of 15000, Stored update 7700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.463220
Actual update 7750 of 15000, Stored update 7750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.377009
Actual update 7800 of 15000, Stored update 7800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.387892
Actual update 7850 of 15000, Stored update 7850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.653876
Actual update 7900 of 15000, Stored update 7900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.291884
Actual update 7950 of 15000, Stored update 7950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.746536
Actual update 8000 of 15000, Stored update 8000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.979617
Actual update 8050 of 15000, Stored update 8050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303303
Actual update 8100 of 15000, Stored update 8100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.554749
Actual update 8150 of 15000, Stored update 8150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.628758
Actual update 8200 of 15000, Stored update 8200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.773838
Actual update 8250 of 15000, Stored update 8250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303772
Actual update 8300 of 15000, Stored update 8300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.394990
Actual update 8350 of 15000, Stored update 8350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.821110
Actual update 8400 of 15000, Stored update 8400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.453836
Actual update 8450 of 15000, Stored update 8450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.332968
Actual update 8500 of 15000, Stored update 8500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.486810
Actual update 8550 of 15000, Stored update 8550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.436534
Actual update 8600 of 15000, Stored update 8600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.348255
Actual update 8650 of 15000, Stored update 8650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.373805
Actual update 8700 of 15000, Stored update 8700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.105508
Actual update 8750 of 15000, Stored update 8750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.491970
Actual update 8800 of 15000, Stored update 8800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.586307
Actual update 8850 of 15000, Stored update 8850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.485480
Actual update 8900 of 15000, Stored update 8900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.251231
Actual update 8950 of 15000, Stored update 8950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.029715
Actual update 9000 of 15000, Stored update 9000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.617251
Actual update 9050 of 15000, Stored update 9050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.808902
Actual update 9100 of 15000, Stored update 9100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.481561
Actual update 9150 of 15000, Stored update 9150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.114245
Actual update 9200 of 15000, Stored update 9200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.462257
Actual update 9250 of 15000, Stored update 9250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.989261
Actual update 9300 of 15000, Stored update 9300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.869022
Actual update 9350 of 15000, Stored update 9350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.313826
Actual update 9400 of 15000, Stored update 9400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.057443
Actual update 9450 of 15000, Stored update 9450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.381670
Actual update 9500 of 15000, Stored update 9500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.974644
Actual update 9550 of 15000, Stored update 9550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.204999
Actual update 9600 of 15000, Stored update 9600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.944681
Actual update 9650 of 15000, Stored update 9650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.782511
Actual update 9700 of 15000, Stored update 9700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.435815
Actual update 9750 of 15000, Stored update 9750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.559156
Actual update 9800 of 15000, Stored update 9800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.499589
Actual update 9850 of 15000, Stored update 9850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.445607
Actual update 9900 of 15000, Stored update 9900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.932187
Actual update 9950 of 15000, Stored update 9950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.356364
Actual update 10000 of 15000, Stored update 10000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.103185
Actual update 10050 of 15000, Stored update 10050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.698784
Actual update 10100 of 15000, Stored update 10100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.407493
Actual update 10150 of 15000, Stored update 10150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.073081
Actual update 10200 of 15000, Stored update 10200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.501938
Actual update 10250 of 15000, Stored update 10250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.166202
Actual update 10300 of 15000, Stored update 10300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.526353
Actual update 10350 of 15000, Stored update 10350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.828928
Actual update 10400 of 15000, Stored update 10400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.321502
Actual update 10450 of 15000, Stored update 10450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.509723
Actual update 10500 of 15000, Stored update 10500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.475855
Actual update 10550 of 15000, Stored update 10550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.427423
Actual update 10600 of 15000, Stored update 10600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.048312
Actual update 10650 of 15000, Stored update 10650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.504689
Actual update 10700 of 15000, Stored update 10700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.343214
Actual update 10750 of 15000, Stored update 10750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.736323
Actual update 10800 of 15000, Stored update 10800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.644299
Actual update 10850 of 15000, Stored update 10850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.167835
Actual update 10900 of 15000, Stored update 10900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.091200
Actual update 10950 of 15000, Stored update 10950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.089911
Actual update 11000 of 15000, Stored update 11000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.850856
Actual update 11050 of 15000, Stored update 11050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.095667
Actual update 11100 of 15000, Stored update 11100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.399195
Actual update 11150 of 15000, Stored update 11150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.933732
Actual update 11200 of 15000, Stored update 11200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.613510
Actual update 11250 of 15000, Stored update 11250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.333869
Actual update 11300 of 15000, Stored update 11300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.055213
Actual update 11350 of 15000, Stored update 11350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.012338
Actual update 11400 of 15000, Stored update 11400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.824617
Actual update 11450 of 15000, Stored update 11450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.577698
Actual update 11500 of 15000, Stored update 11500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.792105
Actual update 11550 of 15000, Stored update 11550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.720343
Actual update 11600 of 15000, Stored update 11600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.559781
Actual update 11650 of 15000, Stored update 11650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.303467
Actual update 11700 of 15000, Stored update 11700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.641581
Actual update 11750 of 15000, Stored update 11750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.095896
Actual update 11800 of 15000, Stored update 11800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.635515
Actual update 11850 of 15000, Stored update 11850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.850313
Actual update 11900 of 15000, Stored update 11900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2598.108508
Actual update 11950 of 15000, Stored update 11950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.598688
Actual update 12000 of 15000, Stored update 12000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.069221
Actual update 12050 of 15000, Stored update 12050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.594538
Actual update 12100 of 15000, Stored update 12100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.082492
Actual update 12150 of 15000, Stored update 12150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.284010
Actual update 12200 of 15000, Stored update 12200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.571265
Actual update 12250 of 15000, Stored update 12250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.197795
Actual update 12300 of 15000, Stored update 12300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.892149
Actual update 12350 of 15000, Stored update 12350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.950196
Actual update 12400 of 15000, Stored update 12400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.446674
Actual update 12450 of 15000, Stored update 12450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.668784
Actual update 12500 of 15000, Stored update 12500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.134181
Actual update 12550 of 15000, Stored update 12550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2596.827360
Actual update 12600 of 15000, Stored update 12600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2597.436190
Actual update 12650 of 15000, Stored update 12650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.581883
Actual update 12700 of 15000, Stored update 12700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.761127
Actual update 12750 of 15000, Stored update 12750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.511492
Actual update 12800 of 15000, Stored update 12800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.970981
Actual update 12850 of 15000, Stored update 12850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.205208
Actual update 12900 of 15000, Stored update 12900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.815426
Actual update 12950 of 15000, Stored update 12950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.527739
Actual update 13000 of 15000, Stored update 13000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.375354
Actual update 13050 of 15000, Stored update 13050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.161721
Actual update 13100 of 15000, Stored update 13100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.165646
Actual update 13150 of 15000, Stored update 13150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.615933
Actual update 13200 of 15000, Stored update 13200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.661689
Actual update 13250 of 15000, Stored update 13250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.934058
Actual update 13300 of 15000, Stored update 13300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.331196
Actual update 13350 of 15000, Stored update 13350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.348267
Actual update 13400 of 15000, Stored update 13400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.710108
Actual update 13450 of 15000, Stored update 13450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.526088
Actual update 13500 of 15000, Stored update 13500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.427714
Actual update 13550 of 15000, Stored update 13550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.175138
Actual update 13600 of 15000, Stored update 13600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.952247
Actual update 13650 of 15000, Stored update 13650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.174863
Actual update 13700 of 15000, Stored update 13700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.311362
Actual update 13750 of 15000, Stored update 13750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.774428
Actual update 13800 of 15000, Stored update 13800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.721112
Actual update 13850 of 15000, Stored update 13850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2595.389233
Actual update 13900 of 15000, Stored update 13900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.749576
Actual update 13950 of 15000, Stored update 13950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.321777
Actual update 14000 of 15000, Stored update 14000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.834873
Actual update 14050 of 15000, Stored update 14050 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.539435
Actual update 14100 of 15000, Stored update 14100 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.407257
Actual update 14150 of 15000, Stored update 14150 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.058782
Actual update 14200 of 15000, Stored update 14200 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.064583
Actual update 14250 of 15000, Stored update 14250 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2591.425419
Actual update 14300 of 15000, Stored update 14300 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.399230
Actual update 14350 of 15000, Stored update 14350 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2594.494608
Actual update 14400 of 15000, Stored update 14400 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.053985
Actual update 14450 of 15000, Stored update 14450 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.194388
Actual update 14500 of 15000, Stored update 14500 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.062828
Actual update 14550 of 15000, Stored update 14550 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.740512
Actual update 14600 of 15000, Stored update 14600 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.109076
Actual update 14650 of 15000, Stored update 14650 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2592.027349
Actual update 14700 of 15000, Stored update 14700 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.953809
Actual update 14750 of 15000, Stored update 14750 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.698469
Actual update 14800 of 15000, Stored update 14800 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.715286
Actual update 14850 of 15000, Stored update 14850 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2590.430721
Actual update 14900 of 15000, Stored update 14900 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.878858
Actual update 14950 of 15000, Stored update 14950 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2593.092206
Actual update 15000 of 15000, Stored update 15000 of 15000
-2 * Loglike = 2589.782512
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          15000
Average =          2591.3
S.D.    =          2.0089
S.E.M.  =        0.016403

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 5.36s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 15000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2591.304   2589.291   2.013      2593.317   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.43823     0.04679  -9.37   7.521e-21  ***    -0.53056    -0.34731   3424 
age          0.00652     0.00518   1.26       0.208         -0.00361     0.01655   3369 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   15000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> sixway(mymodel1@chains[, "FP_age", drop = FALSE], "beta_1")
> 
> ## Change to 5000 iterations by default
> (mymodel3 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc, D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2522.069466
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2522.416460
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2516.684417
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2516.993245
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2520.230429
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2528.418285
Adapting finished and took 700 iterations
Adapting took 700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2521.350620
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2518.991520
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2524.139464
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2525.128730
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.385636
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.604872
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2530.633208
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2516.194512
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2524.627148
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2517.921333

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.401170
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.361644
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.392425
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.902030
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.220252
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.581058
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.294267
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.778515
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.632855
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.018024
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.540300
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.453744
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.561308
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.890592
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.995611
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.161853
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.224471
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.684330
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.299710
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.386532
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.072426
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.876939
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.512926
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.180191
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.409675
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.904756
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.041903
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.126984
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.863607
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.189684
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.049213
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.557101
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.570475
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.959927
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.054060
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.245956
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.709562
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.032966
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.113473
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.094458
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.180995
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.713002
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.333332
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.129678
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.624761
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.451814
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.453340
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.114356
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.968311
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.267346
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.446068
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.022467
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2515.718454
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2515.277034
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.268438
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.721614
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.080543
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.349438
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.359523
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.820491
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.502575
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.059309
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.714517
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2522.094055
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.872935
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2526.970300
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.461122
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.238450
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.300191
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.006096
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.087775
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.974317
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.610732
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.409179
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.271533
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.897440
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.702722
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.171242
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.330213
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.137911
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.257549
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.333539
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2519.940271
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2531.771361
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.079348
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2516.620876
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2525.270454
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.067912
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2520.960184
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.194420
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.615242
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.373627
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2524.623101
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.160253
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.183178
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2518.667417
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.814486
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2517.635186
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2521.990584
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2523.208024
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2520.0
S.D.    =          3.0513
S.E.M.  =        0.043152

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 3.53s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2519.985   2515.101   4.884      2524.869   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.25731     0.11725  -10.72   7.938e-27  ***    -1.50365    -1.04494    88 
age              -0.02167     0.00730   -2.97     0.00299  **     -0.03688    -0.00758   204 
lcOne_child       1.02331     0.15568    6.57    4.92e-11  ***     0.73013     1.34527   200 
lcTwo_children    1.17855     0.16265    7.25   4.295e-13  ***     0.86548     1.49371   181 
lcThree_plus      1.10458     0.17117    6.45   1.095e-10  ***     0.78861     1.45592    98 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 10.2 Random effects logistic regression model . . . . . . . . . . . . .136
> 
> (mymodel4 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2425.393650
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2382.487828
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2385.557160
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2389.249434
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2396.753912
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2385.561122
Adapting finished and took 700 iterations
Adapting took 700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2402.539335
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2413.603520
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2393.031520
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2411.577557
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2416.661355
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2377.030943
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2380.359391
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2388.282301
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2406.932703
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2388.040523

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.795242
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.259815
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.353754
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.547656
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.307375
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.261502
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.333095
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2409.432187
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.920531
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.578419
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.197819
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.415609
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2379.272397
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.595826
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2389.566807
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2413.418452
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.730325
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.781112
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.850386
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2385.810316
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.141197
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.187915
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.372359
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.316577
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.864286
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.926430
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.402731
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.308915
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.716238
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.258494
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.749927
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2413.148994
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.183476
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2415.614471
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2416.888603
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.985020
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.185077
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.576564
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2404.691488
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.193762
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.184006
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.416844
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2387.247023
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.218179
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.747352
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2433.881448
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.719907
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2392.773726
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2393.511973
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2414.345850
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.803190
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2401.863667
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.683013
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2423.940940
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.428829
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.617785
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.795467
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2405.824001
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.762395
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2415.448866
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2410.589817
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.868309
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.208274
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2400.947262
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.401979
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.971499
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2419.483230
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2399.387849
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.199828
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2417.038566
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.494838
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2416.222045
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.476729
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2407.427802
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2420.462965
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.413847
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.401094
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.069542
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2408.149426
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.126517
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.747377
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.599606
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.440217
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2420.537137
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2403.850680
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.376380
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2395.193846
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.137560
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.189229
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2402.031171
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2411.518564
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2391.615160
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.210370
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2396.921396
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2401.349428
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2397.099835
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2398.618286
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.476338
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2392.363952
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2412.052484
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2396.3
S.D.    =          11.747
S.E.M.  =         0.16613

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.86s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2396.324   2355.120   41.204     2437.528   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.48934     0.13771  -10.82   2.919e-27  ***    -1.76712    -1.22862    94 
age              -0.02604     0.00773   -3.37   0.0007579  ***    -0.04114    -0.01136   287 
lcOne_child       1.11009     0.15247    7.28   3.317e-13  ***     0.81361     1.41775   273 
lcTwo_children    1.32959     0.16892    7.87   3.511e-15  ***     1.00613     1.66664   164 
lcThree_plus      1.30533     0.16875    7.74    1.03e-14  ***     0.98436     1.62393   127 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.30225     0.09800      0.15032     0.53346   456 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> summary(mymodel4@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
      0.302251       0.097995       0.001386       0.004590 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

  2.5%    25%    50%    75%  97.5% 
0.1503 0.2308 0.2894 0.3595 0.5335 

> sixway(mymodel4@chains[, "RP2_var_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "sigma2u0")
> 
> # 10.3 Random coefficients for area type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
> 
> (mymodel5 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2386.517555
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2376.620871
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2369.470856
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2400.188422
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2350.717855
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2373.762793
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2365.344941
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2352.533671
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2361.405893
Adapting finished and took 1000 iterations
Adapting took 1000 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2392.853760
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2364.089600
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2376.275962
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2365.643922
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2356.830961
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2380.059050
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2358.768999
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2353.215231
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2358.729162
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2387.164408

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.431924
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.978350
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.301696
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.612057
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.428561
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.089361
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.310478
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.223416
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.566438
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.833624
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.169501
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.545288
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.029554
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2387.839503
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2370.982699
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2383.265064
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.624596
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.798537
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.709044
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.286237
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.628302
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.855090
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.465195
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.660372
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.002448
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.934092
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.496132
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.991644
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.959361
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.596966
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2376.541497
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.269910
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.442307
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.792451
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.240275
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.176119
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.208133
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2386.598907
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.871195
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.403600
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2354.742756
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.111363
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.739785
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2377.576045
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.942845
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.216161
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.895892
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.055887
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2379.718731
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.235876
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.191827
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.939505
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.033868
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.630003
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.396449
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2358.510964
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.534042
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.881210
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2376.992658
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2352.477978
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.659548
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2394.061106
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.432812
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.381817
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.438988
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.952813
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.881511
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.937277
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2388.233771
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.140686
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.676178
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.729099
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.329068
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.645231
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2382.814727
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.560319
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.071946
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.246268
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.751327
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.820726
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.163382
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2380.565113
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2373.958908
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2390.918883
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2362.587190
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.850844
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2369.356064
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.264688
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2367.798108
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2389.327311
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.068108
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2378.127170
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2381.082439
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.119824
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2384.691330
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.469377
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2366.244368
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2374.198974
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2368.164884
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2375.654662
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2370.4
S.D.    =          11.588
S.E.M.  =         0.16388

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 5.36s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2370.448   2331.268   39.180     2409.628   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.72263     0.15643  -11.01   3.326e-28  ***    -2.04037    -1.43455    79 
age              -0.02734     0.00850   -3.22    0.001294  **     -0.04505    -0.01129   187 
lcOne_child       1.12891     0.16471    6.85   7.182e-12  ***     0.80402     1.44924   164 
lcTwo_children    1.38675     0.18073    7.67   1.679e-14  ***     1.05808     1.75907   111 
lcThree_plus      1.37409     0.19991    6.87   6.259e-12  ***     1.00891     1.78948    97 
urbanUrban        0.73922     0.11678    6.33   2.448e-10  ***     0.50709     0.96645   511 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.23443     0.08516      0.09853     0.43194   293 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> (mymodel6 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2341.937991
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2362.425212
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2336.458088
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2343.693739
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2310.537894
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2344.737853
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2332.320335
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2340.973110
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2310.834954
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2333.233051
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2366.357628
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2312.176063
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2311.441870
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2342.139483
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2337.786630
Adapting finished and took 1600 iterations
Adapting took 1600 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2336.577406
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2325.447551
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2319.393014
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2334.594066
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2317.882286
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2309.210809
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2349.235208
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2333.935032
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2330.186094
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2341.758937

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.051966
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.874970
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.198285
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.152832
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.905831
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2351.101631
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.632930
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.626086
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.890641
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.271130
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.902312
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.491811
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.520396
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.826321
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.424001
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.992568
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.427891
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.921427
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.199534
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.341232
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.222503
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.921784
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.414142
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.796888
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.021752
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.470518
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.541619
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.054801
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.924157
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.057474
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.210506
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.135609
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.416626
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.267379
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.467392
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.493864
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.190621
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.273160
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.407860
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.954660
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.502065
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.468232
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.744745
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.786949
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.438484
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.011289
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.161947
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.798484
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2302.336882
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.976222
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.104563
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.705841
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.761085
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.958384
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.598206
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.708314
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.813844
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.083980
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.960950
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.027917
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.569206
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.945181
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.156234
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2348.518739
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.434414
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.245823
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.719836
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.488151
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.632416
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.865947
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.254000
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.766484
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.723143
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.475498
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.305098
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2321.418754
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.329769
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.299342
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.744179
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.723972
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.070878
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.601416
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.932742
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.133962
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.844210
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.715838
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2293.449631
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.586295
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.399955
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.514423
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.400520
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.159474
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.230335
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.097034
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.333599
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.919676
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.360953
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.517958
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.156696
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.761270
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2327.3
S.D.    =          13.554
S.E.M.  =         0.19168

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 7.3s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2327.272   2269.602   57.670     2384.941   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.72364     0.16457  -10.47   1.142e-25  ***    -2.08125    -1.39809    64 
age              -0.02594     0.00774   -3.35   0.0008015  ***    -0.04135    -0.01102   292 
lcOne_child       1.12629     0.15253    7.38   1.535e-13  ***     0.83731     1.43950   279 
lcTwo_children    1.34653     0.16855    7.99   1.363e-15  ***     1.01308     1.67241   182 
lcThree_plus      1.34301     0.17061    7.87   3.501e-15  ***     1.00944     1.65942    96 
urbanUrban        0.83932     0.19878    4.22   2.418e-05  ***     0.46094     1.25496    93 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.43687     0.14548      0.22124     0.78523   186 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.46159     0.19214     -0.92123    -0.15848   118 
var_urbanUrban              0.78897     0.33255      0.29580     1.58722    96 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 10.4 Probit regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
> 
> # 10.5 Running a probit regression in MLwiN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142
> 
> ## Gibbs
> (mymodel7 <- runMLwiN(probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, 
+   mcmcMeth = list(fixM = 1, residM = 1)), data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  1 1 2 1 1 2
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2346.125878
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2325.814744
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2331.482983
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2345.957206
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2325.133450
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2324.863890
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2320.543003
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2363.324581
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2320.481690
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2297.193424

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.864832
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2359.687841
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.018783
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.410812
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.334534
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.605728
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.726073
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.657481
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.786919
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.048597
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.660714
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.003679
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.887602
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.048249
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.040444
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.025528
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.225186
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.076786
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.558101
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.179698
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.559773
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2361.546178
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.543793
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.248505
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.338010
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.263095
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2306.562372
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.222194
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.114007
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.206213
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.634907
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2351.773450
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.553662
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2363.842731
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.826508
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.755664
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2311.946982
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.355552
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.057197
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.091406
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2357.040522
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2338.271029
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.834913
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.351741
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.146173
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.413774
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2298.396267
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2364.481986
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.927613
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.615120
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.536178
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.203468
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.983672
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.740887
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.579191
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.731623
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.336969
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.889546
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.233943
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.172963
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.759021
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.643228
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.873800
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.238330
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.077205
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2346.182472
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.898483
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.217806
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.107666
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2303.338551
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.549839
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.828885
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.075540
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.082114
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.117533
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.954831
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.655840
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.042062
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.039421
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.820393
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.476817
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.842589
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.414850
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.349474
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.397252
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.554926
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.661423
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.960002
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.860271
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2299.071294
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.844959
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.232077
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.390492
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.328542
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.579507
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2336.700974
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.673472
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.395957
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.994484
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.967078
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2328.7
S.D.    =          14.033
S.E.M.  =         0.19845

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 4.05s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2328.654   2272.371   56.283     2384.937   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept        -1.04848     0.09474  -11.07   1.806e-28  ***    -1.23671    -0.86827    699 
age              -0.01648     0.00485   -3.40   0.0006752  ***    -0.02617    -0.00706   1945 
lcOne_child       0.68597     0.09541    7.19   6.484e-13  ***     0.50207     0.87151   1916 
lcTwo_children    0.82938     0.10420    7.96   1.725e-15  ***     0.63237     1.03331   1918 
lcThree_plus      0.82661     0.10765    7.68    1.61e-14  ***     0.61971     1.04249   1654 
urbanUrban        0.50887     0.09879    5.15   2.589e-07  ***     0.31974     0.70850    716 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.15432     0.04932      0.07787     0.26926   776 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.15981     0.06563     -0.30768    -0.05798   488 
var_urbanUrban              0.26512     0.11643      0.09882     0.53835   340 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> ## Univariate MH by default
> (mymodel8 <- runMLwiN(probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5
iteration 6

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2300.502755
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2326.553465
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2345.836426
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2296.712774
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2317.036272
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2318.847037
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2323.387975
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2324.365313
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2303.450914
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2320.842240
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2325.172613
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2328.623194
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2332.669438
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2292.494479
Adapting finished and took 1500 iterations
Adapting took 1500 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2323.741409
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2327.405206
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2345.846612
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2339.851502
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2307.865120
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2321.204703
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2348.141873
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2319.688512
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2315.125263
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2310.869945

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.230343
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.026230
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.055171
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.541531
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.268722
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2360.816403
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.665247
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.342349
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.767739
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2333.323048
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2349.775741
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.037511
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2348.847129
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2355.529570
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.689809
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.713827
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.747213
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.642806
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.284217
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.041072
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.861309
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.026033
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2334.374522
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.706296
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2330.957693
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2347.378364
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.981965
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.383008
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.041148
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.486237
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.977174
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.294614
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2344.581912
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.748852
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2308.694920
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.722733
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.248387
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.259471
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.045972
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2331.957610
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2323.451381
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.500749
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2332.131305
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.550818
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.442526
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.251530
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.599226
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2305.942036
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.091520
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2337.967626
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.197380
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2307.136188
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.315691
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2313.366220
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.867483
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.172849
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.271614
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.332648
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2329.404096
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2310.447314
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2372.673348
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2358.210195
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.603719
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.086232
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.220262
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2341.472659
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.584513
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.423870
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2342.646880
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2322.767076
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2314.588951
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.454272
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2339.449923
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.449518
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.457817
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2327.214164
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2325.287947
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2328.943832
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.269516
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.787230
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2324.487420
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.100036
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2315.439901
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.064634
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2320.002204
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2304.590086
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.596714
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2317.458188
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2343.973465
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2348.392851
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2335.883754
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.666126
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2319.950775
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2309.189663
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2316.262140
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2312.315346
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2326.436217
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2318.170867
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2340.376061
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2353.174462
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2325.9
S.D.    =          13.905
S.E.M.  =         0.19665

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 9.35s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2325.939   2269.217   56.723     2382.662   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
probit(use) ~ 1 + age + lc + urban + (1 + urban | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
                    Coef.   Std. Err.       z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept        -1.03838     0.08998  -11.54   8.221e-31  ***    -1.21103    -0.85682    82 
age              -0.01636     0.00492   -3.33   0.0008833  ***    -0.02603    -0.00673   226 
lcOne_child       0.68170     0.09268    7.36   1.904e-13  ***     0.50701     0.86985   197 
lcTwo_children    0.82192     0.10498    7.83   4.921e-15  ***     0.61817     1.02716   155 
lcThree_plus      0.82413     0.10834    7.61    2.81e-14  ***     0.58798     1.03590   120 
urbanUrban        0.50298     0.10035    5.01   5.375e-07  ***     0.31380     0.70448   130 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                              Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept               0.15902     0.05253      0.07754     0.28182   153 
cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.17532     0.07249     -0.34852    -0.06840   102 
var_urbanUrban              0.29928     0.12934      0.11242     0.62024    99 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> if (!require(texreg)) {
+   warning("texreg package required to use screenreg() function")
+ } else {
+   screenreg(list(mymodel7, mymodel8), custom.model.names=c("Gibbs", "Metropolis"), groups = list("Fixed Part" = 1:6, "Level-2" = 7:9, "Level-1" = 10:10),
+    stars = numeric(0), include.nobs=FALSE, include.loglik=FALSE, include.deviance=FALSE, include.dbar=FALSE, include.dthetabar=FALSE, include.pd=FALSE, include.dic=FALSE)
+ }
Loading required package: texreg
Version:  1.36.23
Date:     2017-03-03
Author:   Philip Leifeld (University of Glasgow)

Please cite the JSS article in your publications -- see citation("texreg").

================================================================
                                  Gibbs           Metropolis    
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed Part                                                      
                                                                
    FP_Intercept                   -1.05 *         -1.04 *      
                                  [-1.24; -0.87]  [-1.21; -0.86]
    FP_age                         -0.02 *         -0.02 *      
                                  [-0.03; -0.01]  [-0.03; -0.01]
    FP_lcOne_child                  0.69 *          0.68 *      
                                  [ 0.50;  0.87]  [ 0.51;  0.87]
    FP_lcTwo_children               0.83 *          0.82 *      
                                  [ 0.63;  1.03]  [ 0.62;  1.03]
    FP_lcThree_plus                 0.83 *          0.82 *      
                                  [ 0.62;  1.04]  [ 0.59;  1.04]
    FP_urbanUrban                   0.51 *          0.50 *      
                                  [ 0.32;  0.71]  [ 0.31;  0.70]
Level-2                                                         
                                                                
    RP2_var_Intercept               0.15 *          0.16 *      
                                  [ 0.08;  0.27]  [ 0.08;  0.28]
    RP2_cov_Intercept_urbanUrban   -0.16 *         -0.18 *      
                                  [-0.31; -0.06]  [-0.35; -0.07]
    RP2_var_urbanUrban              0.27 *          0.30 *      
                                  [ 0.10;  0.54]  [ 0.11;  0.62]
Level-1                                                         
                                                                
    RP1_var_bcons_1                 1.00 *          1.00 *      
                                  [ 1.00;  1.00]  [ 1.00;  1.00]
================================================================
* 0 outside the confidence interval
> 
> if (!require(coda)) {
+   warning("package coda required to run this example")
+ } else {
+   cat("The effective sample sizes\n")
+   ESS.aa <- effectiveSize(mymodel7@chains[, 2:11])
+   ESS.bb <- effectiveSize(mymodel8@chains[, 2:11])
+   ctable <- cbind(round(ESS.aa), round(ESS.bb))
+   colnames(ctable) <- c("ESS(Gibbs)", "ESS(Metropolis)")
+   print(ctable)
+ }
Loading required package: coda
The effective sample sizes
                             ESS(Gibbs) ESS(Metropolis)
FP_Intercept                        699              82
FP_age                             1945             226
FP_lcOne_child                     1916             197
FP_lcTwo_children                  1918             155
FP_lcThree_plus                    1654             120
FP_urbanUrban                       716             130
RP2_var_Intercept                   776             153
RP2_cov_Intercept_urbanUrban        488             102
RP2_var_urbanUrban                  340              99
RP1_var_bcons_1                    5000            5000
> 
> # 10.6 Comparison with WinBUGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
> 
> mymodel9 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), BUGO = c(version = 4, 
+   n.chains = 1, debug = FALSE, seed = 1, OpenBugs = TRUE), data = bang1)
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed

Loading required namespace: BRugs
Welcome to BRugs connected to OpenBUGS version 3.2.3
model is syntactically correct
data loaded
model compiled
Initializing chain 1: 
model is initialized
model is already initialized
Sampling has been started ...
500 updates took 4 s
deviance set
monitor set for variable 'beta'
monitor set for variable 'u2'
monitor set for variable 'sigma2.u2'
monitor set for variable 'deviance'
5000 updates took 43 s
> 
> summary(mymodel9)

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

                Mean        SD  Naive SE Time-series SE
beta[1]   -5.443e-01  0.089801 1.270e-03      3.311e-03
beta[2]    8.515e-03  0.005298 7.493e-05      7.701e-05
deviance   2.476e+03 10.962516 1.550e-01      2.416e-01
sigma2.u2  2.741e-01  0.089239 1.262e-03      2.966e-03
u2[1]     -4.502e-01  0.208780 2.953e-03      3.813e-03
u2[10]    -6.102e-01  0.416527 5.891e-03      7.231e-03
u2[11]    -9.979e-01  0.425494 6.017e-03      8.606e-03
u2[12]    -9.555e-02  0.317483 4.490e-03      5.151e-03
u2[13]     1.191e-01  0.329371 4.658e-03      5.057e-03
u2[14]     9.490e-01  0.201612 2.851e-03      4.825e-03
u2[15]    -1.443e-02  0.340740 4.819e-03      4.961e-03
u2[16]     4.369e-01  0.355190 5.023e-03      5.902e-03
u2[17]    -2.014e-01  0.341084 4.824e-03      4.986e-03
u2[18]    -8.039e-02  0.272126 3.848e-03      5.039e-03
u2[19]     3.967e-02  0.328498 4.646e-03      4.865e-03
u2[2]     -4.280e-02  0.352357 4.983e-03      5.171e-03
u2[20]     6.837e-02  0.373748 5.286e-03      6.009e-03
u2[21]     3.452e-02  0.356626 5.043e-03      5.468e-03
u2[22]    -4.297e-01  0.366196 5.179e-03      6.197e-03
u2[23]    -2.263e-01  0.379459 5.366e-03      5.366e-03
u2[24]    -6.367e-01  0.417796 5.909e-03      7.251e-03
u2[25]     2.779e-01  0.238186 3.368e-03      4.444e-03
u2[26]     1.830e-02  0.385773 5.456e-03      5.456e-03
u2[27]    -6.525e-01  0.305962 4.327e-03      5.561e-03
u2[28]    -4.303e-01  0.275778 3.900e-03      4.286e-03
u2[29]    -2.609e-01  0.315412 4.461e-03      4.966e-03
u2[3]      3.167e-01  0.502777 7.110e-03      7.861e-03
u2[30]     4.048e-01  0.246550 3.487e-03      4.593e-03
u2[31]     2.192e-01  0.303900 4.298e-03      5.133e-03
u2[32]    -4.439e-01  0.352595 4.986e-03      5.801e-03
u2[33]     1.048e-01  0.376303 5.322e-03      5.322e-03
u2[34]     8.070e-01  0.306512 4.335e-03      6.235e-03
u2[35]     4.101e-01  0.269202 3.807e-03      4.819e-03
u2[36]    -4.722e-02  0.366965 5.190e-03      5.433e-03
u2[37]     3.033e-01  0.386145 5.461e-03      6.098e-03
u2[38]    -2.020e-01  0.393923 5.571e-03      5.685e-03
u2[39]     3.341e-01  0.319761 4.522e-03      4.827e-03
u2[4]      3.570e-01  0.310134 4.386e-03      5.310e-03
u2[40]     2.685e-01  0.280285 3.964e-03      4.885e-03
u2[41]     3.346e-01  0.333333 4.714e-03      5.436e-03
u2[42]     3.018e-01  0.408959 5.784e-03      6.037e-03
u2[43]     5.082e-01  0.273937 3.874e-03      5.457e-03
u2[44]    -4.183e-01  0.346493 4.900e-03      5.347e-03
u2[45]    -9.349e-02  0.293792 4.155e-03      4.671e-03
u2[46]     5.418e-01  0.214930 3.040e-03      4.546e-03
u2[47]     1.776e-01  0.367427 5.196e-03      5.771e-03
u2[48]     4.642e-01  0.278017 3.932e-03      4.981e-03
u2[49]    -3.128e-01  0.485171 6.861e-03      7.425e-03
u2[5]     -2.235e-02  0.288865 4.085e-03      4.506e-03
u2[50]     2.365e-01  0.349387 4.941e-03      5.736e-03
u2[51]     2.770e-01  0.286289 4.049e-03      4.818e-03
u2[52]     2.532e-01  0.246447 3.485e-03      4.613e-03
u2[53]     1.121e-01  0.351896 4.977e-03      4.977e-03
u2[54]    -2.553e-01  0.445362 6.298e-03      6.992e-03
u2[55]     6.448e-01  0.273768 3.872e-03      5.579e-03
u2[56]    -5.319e-01  0.343876 4.863e-03      5.399e-03
u2[57]     2.314e-01  0.299322 4.233e-03      4.791e-03
u2[58]    -4.423e-01  0.429483 6.074e-03      6.793e-03
u2[59]    -4.468e-01  0.327390 4.630e-03      5.547e-03
u2[6]     -2.754e-01  0.247264 3.497e-03      4.288e-03
u2[60]    -5.150e-01  0.302312 4.275e-03      4.985e-03
u2[7]     -2.024e-01  0.370591 5.241e-03      5.834e-03
u2[8]      2.606e-02  0.292622 4.138e-03      4.727e-03
u2[9]     -1.680e-01  0.340983 4.822e-03      5.502e-03

2. Quantiles for each variable:

                2.5%        25%        50%        75%      97.5%
beta[1]   -7.231e-01 -6.038e-01 -5.434e-01   -0.48431   -0.36688
beta[2]   -1.841e-03  4.841e-03  8.528e-03    0.01213    0.01889
deviance   2.457e+03  2.469e+03  2.476e+03 2483.27960 2499.22413
sigma2.u2  1.369e-01  2.095e-01  2.615e-01    0.32643    0.47471
u2[1]     -8.712e-01 -5.869e-01 -4.450e-01   -0.30512   -0.04547
u2[10]    -1.500e+00 -8.711e-01 -5.971e-01   -0.32544    0.15487
u2[11]    -1.903e+00 -1.261e+00 -9.792e-01   -0.70341   -0.21077
u2[12]    -7.155e-01 -3.051e-01 -9.574e-02    0.11981    0.51891
u2[13]    -5.385e-01 -1.039e-01  1.255e-01    0.33995    0.74937
u2[14]     5.581e-01  8.176e-01  9.470e-01    1.08174    1.34851
u2[15]    -6.842e-01 -2.352e-01 -1.060e-02    0.20626    0.64692
u2[16]    -2.280e-01  2.011e-01  4.250e-01    0.66178    1.17699
u2[17]    -8.841e-01 -4.294e-01 -1.901e-01    0.02728    0.43359
u2[18]    -6.229e-01 -2.613e-01 -7.577e-02    0.10053    0.44651
u2[19]    -6.003e-01 -1.769e-01  4.155e-02    0.25738    0.68842
u2[2]     -7.339e-01 -2.713e-01 -5.206e-02    0.18509    0.66364
u2[20]    -6.695e-01 -1.804e-01  7.103e-02    0.31739    0.79705
u2[21]    -6.495e-01 -2.067e-01  2.355e-02    0.26952    0.76202
u2[22]    -1.179e+00 -6.656e-01 -4.210e-01   -0.17258    0.25275
u2[23]    -1.003e+00 -4.739e-01 -2.204e-01    0.03034    0.49866
u2[24]    -1.532e+00 -8.968e-01 -6.199e-01   -0.35269    0.12560
u2[25]    -1.759e-01  1.177e-01  2.766e-01    0.43980    0.74033
u2[26]    -7.599e-01 -2.296e-01  1.816e-02    0.27460    0.77219
u2[27]    -1.289e+00 -8.517e-01 -6.433e-01   -0.44914   -0.06269
u2[28]    -9.814e-01 -6.163e-01 -4.257e-01   -0.24474    0.09587
u2[29]    -8.869e-01 -4.699e-01 -2.565e-01   -0.04766    0.34236
u2[3]     -6.320e-01 -2.483e-02  3.080e-01    0.64090    1.32274
u2[30]    -9.272e-02  2.396e-01  4.033e-01    0.57669    0.88516
u2[31]    -3.787e-01  1.992e-02  2.176e-01    0.41821    0.81732
u2[32]    -1.162e+00 -6.772e-01 -4.365e-01   -0.20455    0.23310
u2[33]    -6.389e-01 -1.459e-01  1.020e-01    0.35578    0.83736
u2[34]     2.138e-01  5.955e-01  8.066e-01    1.01187    1.42054
u2[35]    -1.117e-01  2.234e-01  4.085e-01    0.58989    0.94783
u2[36]    -7.880e-01 -2.900e-01 -3.997e-02    0.19610    0.65265
u2[37]    -4.488e-01  4.877e-02  3.013e-01    0.55237    1.08270
u2[38]    -9.799e-01 -4.639e-01 -2.051e-01    0.06686    0.55767
u2[39]    -2.978e-01  1.229e-01  3.293e-01    0.54589    0.96938
u2[4]     -2.530e-01  1.542e-01  3.514e-01    0.56293    0.97140
u2[40]    -2.847e-01  7.773e-02  2.714e-01    0.45181    0.81352
u2[41]    -3.112e-01  1.072e-01  3.305e-01    0.55752    0.99663
u2[42]    -4.824e-01  2.308e-02  2.994e-01    0.56644    1.14843
u2[43]    -3.100e-02  3.232e-01  5.071e-01    0.69323    1.04709
u2[44]    -1.130e+00 -6.363e-01 -4.144e-01   -0.18339    0.23377
u2[45]    -6.830e-01 -2.870e-01 -9.254e-02    0.10548    0.48583
u2[46]     1.060e-01  3.997e-01  5.411e-01    0.68662    0.96846
u2[47]    -5.414e-01 -7.059e-02  1.712e-01    0.42193    0.92171
u2[48]    -7.265e-02  2.776e-01  4.646e-01    0.65196    1.00842
u2[49]    -1.299e+00 -6.236e-01 -2.979e-01    0.01752    0.62199
u2[5]     -5.985e-01 -2.107e-01 -2.199e-02    0.16618    0.54160
u2[50]    -4.449e-01 -1.765e-03  2.417e-01    0.46520    0.92366
u2[51]    -2.874e-01  8.851e-02  2.837e-01    0.46421    0.83517
u2[52]    -2.258e-01  8.184e-02  2.551e-01    0.42106    0.74345
u2[53]    -5.630e-01 -1.216e-01  1.148e-01    0.34648    0.79172
u2[54]    -1.130e+00 -5.516e-01 -2.471e-01    0.04161    0.62789
u2[55]     1.192e-01  4.573e-01  6.441e-01    0.82178    1.20277
u2[56]    -1.234e+00 -7.628e-01 -5.161e-01   -0.29512    0.12164
u2[57]    -3.475e-01  3.342e-02  2.315e-01    0.42541    0.82523
u2[58]    -1.341e+00 -7.233e-01 -4.286e-01   -0.14956    0.37873
u2[59]    -1.111e+00 -6.585e-01 -4.317e-01   -0.23232    0.17653
u2[6]     -7.653e-01 -4.389e-01 -2.706e-01   -0.10664    0.19042
u2[60]    -1.137e+00 -7.077e-01 -5.114e-01   -0.31085    0.05526
u2[7]     -9.575e-01 -4.374e-01 -1.954e-01    0.04811    0.52952
u2[8]     -5.446e-01 -1.704e-01  2.323e-02    0.22168    0.59973
u2[9]     -8.537e-01 -3.931e-01 -1.649e-01    0.06712    0.48726

> summary(mymodel9[, "beta[1]"])

Iterations = 501:5500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     -0.544271       0.089801       0.001270       0.003311 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

   2.5%     25%     50%     75%   97.5% 
-0.7231 -0.6038 -0.5434 -0.4843 -0.3669 

> sixway(mymodel9[, "beta[1]", drop = FALSE])
> 
> (mymodel10 <- runMLwiN(logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district), D = "Binomial", estoptions = list(EstM = 1), 
+   data = bang1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 2
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2497.656500
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2483.820249
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2474.510650
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2474.944168
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2472.709291
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2459.927023
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2473.465441
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2473.793835
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2487.318987
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2481.725225
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2462.972152
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2479.580139
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2482.436469
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2465.070462
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2478.730742
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2468.639432
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2484.084233
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 2460.787469
Adapting finished and took 1900 iterations
Adapting took 1900 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2478.369740
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2483.171336
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2488.040187
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2472.209128
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2488.025540
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2481.520094
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2476.267648
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2469.290524
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2470.117552
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 2482.141584

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 2
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.026314
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2495.206307
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2501.982138
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.428932
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.143718
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.116993
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2499.672224
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.469958
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2500.351693
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2486.434331
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.981361
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.342518
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.323596
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.611190
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.403799
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.936282
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.255478
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.927962
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.311890
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.043148
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.841683
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.103281
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.599981
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.167200
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.729573
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2477.729158
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.234981
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.675723
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2485.851434
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2463.315771
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.354692
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.817811
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.739687
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.723676
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2489.503005
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.790054
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2473.554738
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2472.429227
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2461.535145
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2480.440089
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.167509
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.918687
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.398446
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2499.127140
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.026533
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.933757
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2506.029940
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.572072
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.036167
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.765321
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.453086
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.279930
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.280725
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.808485
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.244950
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.350684
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2455.841172
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2495.890449
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2488.618394
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.814052
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.326492
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.182698
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2492.192550
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.425880
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2480.704832
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2465.321035
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.023619
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.395559
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2472.580722
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2475.776111
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.752455
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.072322
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2500.255563
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2494.693408
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2467.120993
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2459.673282
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.034317
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2475.668152
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2454.900801
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.128770
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.521969
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2486.334590
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2466.312487
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.752627
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2461.648431
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.714777
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2478.734461
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.988577
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2481.208575
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2476.019312
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2474.662026
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2471.658265
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2468.812437
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2479.115135
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2462.468193
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2482.254267
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2470.569235
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2477.189511
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2456.972587
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 2483.210658
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          2477.2
S.D.    =          11.236
S.E.M.  =         0.15890

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.05)  multilevel model (Binomial) 
          N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
district 60   2 32.23333 118         60            2      32.23333          118
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 3.91s 
Number of obs:  1934 (from total 1934)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
2477.181   2440.199   36.982     2514.163   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
logit(use) ~ 1 + age + (1 | district)
Level 2: district     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.53683     0.08720  -6.16   7.436e-10  ***    -0.72295    -0.37759    171 
age          0.00855     0.00524   1.63      0.1028         -0.00126     0.01891   1102 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the district level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.26389     0.08930      0.13141     0.46936   359 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> summary(mymodel10@chains[, "FP_Intercept"])

Iterations = 1:5000
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 5000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

          Mean             SD       Naive SE Time-series SE 
     -0.536829       0.087197       0.001233       0.006661 

2. Quantiles for each variable:

   2.5%     25%     50%     75%   97.5% 
-0.7229 -0.5901 -0.5356 -0.4779 -0.3776 

> sixway(mymodel10@chains[, "FP_Intercept", drop = FALSE], "beta_0")
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ############################################################################  
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   8.93    5.84  294.35